Predicting suicide: A comparison between clinical suicide risk assessment and the Suicide Intent Scale.

BACKGROUND: How suicide risk should be assessed is under discussion with arguments for both actuarial and clinical approaches. The aim of the present study was to compare the predictive accuracy of a clinical suicide risk assessment to that of the Suicide Intent Scale (SIS) in predicting suicide within one year of an episode of self-harm with or without suicidal intent. METHODS: Prospective clinical study of 479 persons assessed in a psychiatric emergency department after an episode of self-harm. The clinical risk assessment and the SIS rating were made independently of each other. Suicides within one year were identified in the National Cause of Death Register. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed, optimal cut-offs were identified and accuracy statistics were calculated. RESULTS: Of 479 participants, 329 (68.7%) were women. The age range was 18-95 years. During one-year follow up, 14 participants died by suicide. The area under the curve (AUC) for the clinical risk assessment and the SIS score were very similar, as were the accuracy statistic measures at the optimal cut-offs of the respective methods. The positive predictive value (PPV) of each assessment method was 6%. LIMITATIONS: The clinical suicide risk assessment is not standardized. The number of suicides is small, not allowing for stratification by e.g. gender or diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Predictive accuracy was similar for a clinical risk assessment and the SIS, and insufficient to guide treatment allocation.

A Comparison of Suicide Risk Scales in Predicting Repeat Suicide Attempt and Suicide: A Clinical Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the Suicide Intent Scale (SIS), the Suicide Assessment Scale (SUAS), the Karolinska Interpersonal Violence Scale (KIVS), and the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) for suicide attempts and suicides within 3 and 12 months of an episode of self-harm. METHODS: This prospective multicenter cohort study included patients (N = 804) aged 18-95 years with a recent episode of self-harm assessed in psychiatric emergency settings from April 2012 to April 2016. Suicide attempts and suicides were identified in medical records and in the National Cause of Death Register. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and accuracy statistics were calculated. A sensitivity of at least 80% combined with a specificity of at least 50% were considered minimally acceptable. RESULTS: At least 1 suicide attempt was recorded for 216 participants during follow-up, and 19 participants died by suicide. The SUAS and C-SSRS were better than chance in classifying the 114 suicide attempts occurring within the first 3 months; a C-SSRS score ≥ 27 yielded a sensitivity/specificity of 79.8%/51.5% (P < .001). During 1-year follow-up, the SUAS and C-SSRS also performed better than chance, but no cutoff on either instrument gave a sensitivity/specificity of ≥ 80%/≥ 50%. The SIS was the only instrument that could classify suicides correctly. At 3 months, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.89-0.99), and a score ≥ 21 predicted suicide with a sensitivity/specificity of 100%/81.9%, based on only 4 suicides. At 1-year follow-up, the AUC was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.61-0.87), and a score ≥ 17 predicted suicide with a sensitivity/specificity of 72.2%/57.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Instruments that predicted nonfatal repeat suicide attempts did not predict suicide and vice versa. With the possible exception of the prediction of suicide by the SIS in a short time frame, the specificity of these instruments was low, giving them a limited relevance in the prediction of suicidal behaviors.

Prognoses after self-harm in youth: exploring the gender factor.

PURPOSE: Gender differences in youth self-harm are sparsely studied regarding long-term prognoses. We aimed to study the gender differences in effects of adolescent self-harm in early adult life in four domains: 1/family situation, 2/education and employment, 3/mental illness and suicidal behaviour, and 4/suicide and all-cause mortality. METHOD: A register-based cohort study including all Swedish residents aged 20 during 2001-2005 was performed. Exposure was self-harm at ages 10-20, and outcomes were death and suicide and past-year records of self-harm, marital status/children, education/employment, and mental health at age 30. We used logistic regression for dichotomous outcomes, and Cox regression models for time-dependent outcomes. An interaction term was introduced to detect significant gender effects, in which case we performed stratified analyses. RESULTS: Subjects with self-harm before age 20 had a poorer prognosis for all studied outcomes, and risk estimates were similar for men and women for most outcomes including suicide. Significant interaction terms (ITs) were found, revealing gender differences, for being married (pIT 0.0003; ORmen 0.6, ORwomen 0.9), being a parent (pIT < 0.0001; ORmen 0.7, ORwomen 1.1), receiving unemployment support (pIT < 0.0001; ORmen 2.4, ORwomen 1.8), and death from any cause (pIT 0.006; ORmen 10.6, ORwomen 7.4). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent self-harm was associated with later life adversities and affected men more than women regarding prognoses for unemployment and certain aspects of the family situation. We found no gender difference for the effect of self-harm on the risk of suicide. Future suicide risk should not be underestimated in young self-harming women.

Short term risk of non-fatal and fatal suicidal behaviours: the predictive validity of the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale in a Swedish adult psychiatric population with a recent episode of self-harm.

BACKGROUND: The Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) is a relatively new instrument for the assessment of suicidal ideation and behaviour that is widely used in clinical and research settings. The predictive properties of the C-SSRS have mainly been evaluated in young US populations. We wanted to examine the instrument's predictive validity in a Swedish cohort of adults seeking psychiatric emergency services after an episode of self-harm. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of patients (n = 804) presenting for psychiatric emergency assessment after an episode of self-harm with or without suicidal intent. Suicidal ideation and behaviours at baseline were rated with the C-SSRS and subsequent non-fatal and fatal suicide attempts within 6 months were identified by record review. Logistic regression was used to evaluate separate ideation items and total scores as predictors of non-fatal and fatal suicide attempts. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed for the suicidal ideation (SI) intensity score and the C-SSRS total score. RESULTS: In this cohort, the median age at baseline was 33 years, 67% were women and 68% had made at least one suicide attempt prior to the index attempt. At least one non-fatal or fatal suicide attempt was recorded during follow-up for 165 persons (20.5%). The single C-SSRS items frequency, duration and deterrents were associated with this composite outcome; controllability and reasons were not. In a logistic regression model adjusted for previous history of suicide attempt, SI intensity score was a significant predictor of a non-fatal or fatal suicide attempt (OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.12). ROC analysis showed that the SI intensity score was somewhat better than chance in correctly classifying the outcome (AUC 0.62, 95% CI 0.57-0.66). The corresponding figures for the C-SSRS total score were 0.65, 95% CI 0.60-0.69. CONCLUSIONS: The C-SSRS items frequency, duration and deterrents were associated with elevated short term risk in this adult psychiatric cohort, as were both the SI intensity score and the C-SSRS total score. However, the ability to correctly predict future suicidal behaviour was limited for both scores.

Method of self-harm in adolescents and young adults and risk of subsequent suicide.

BACKGROUND: Self-harm is common in youth and an important risk factor for suicide. Certain self-harm methods might indicate a higher risk of suicide. The main aim of this study was to determine whether some methods of self-harm in adolescents (10-17 years) and young adults (18-24 years) are associated with a particularly high risk of suicide. A secondary aim was to ascertain how different self-harm methods might affect the probability of psychiatric follow-up. METHOD: Five Swedish registers were linked in a national population-based cohort study. All nonfatal self-harm events recorded in specialist health care, excluding psychiatry and primary care services, among 10-24 year olds between 2000 and 2009 were included. Methods were classified as poisoning, cutting/piercing, violent method (gassing, hanging, strangulation/suffocation, drowning, jumping and firearms), other and multiple methods. Hazard Ratios (HR) for suicide were calculated in Cox regression models for each method with poisoning as the reference. Odds Ratios (OR) for psychiatric inpatient care were determined in logistic regression models. Analyses were adjusted for important covariates and stratified by age group and treatment setting (inpatient/outpatient). RESULTS: Among adolescents with initial medical hospitalisation, use of a violent method was associated with a near eightfold increase in HR for suicide compared to self-poisoning in the adjusted analysis [HR 7.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2-19.0]. Among hospitalised young adult women, adjusted HRs were elevated fourfold for both cutting [4.0 (1.9-8.8)] and violent methods [3.9 (1.5-10.6)]. Method of self-harm did not affect suicide risk in young adult men. Adolescents using violent methods had an increased probability of psychiatric inpatient care following initial treatment for self-harm. CONCLUSIONS: Violent self-harm requiring medical hospitalisation may signal particularly high risk of future suicide in adolescents (both sexes) and in young adult women. For the latter group this is the case for cutting requiring hospitalisation as well.

Future risk of labour market marginalization in young suicide attempters--a population-based prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Research on future labour market marginalization following suicide attempt at young age is scarce. We investigated the effects of suicide attempts on three labour market outcomes: unemployment, sickness absence and disability pension. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study based on register linkage of 1,613,816 individuals who in 1994 were 16-30 years old and lived in Sweden. Suicide attempters treated in inpatient care during the 3 years preceding study entry, i.e. 1992-94 (N=5649) were compared with the general population of the same age without suicide attempt between 1973 and 2010 (n=1,608,167). Hazard ratios (HRs) for long-term unemployment (>180 days), sickness absence (>90 days) and disability pension in 1995-2010 were calculated by Cox regression models, adjusted for a number of parental and individual risk markers, and stratified for previous psychiatric inpatient care not due to suicide attempt. RESULTS: The risks for unemployment [HR 1.58; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.52-1.64], sickness absence (HR 2.16; 2.08-2.24) and disability pension (HR 4.57; 4.34-4.81) were considerably increased among suicide attempters. There was a dose-response relationship between number of suicide attempts and the risk of disability pension, for individuals both with or without previous psychiatric hospitalizations not due to suicide attempts. No such relationship was present with regard to unemployment. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the strong association of suicide attempts with future marginalization from the labour market, particularly for outcomes that are based on a medical assessment. Studies that focus only on unemployment may largely underestimate the true detrimental impact of suicide attempt on labour market marginalization.