Real-time parameter estimation of Zika outbreaks using model averaging.

Early prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this paper we focus on the estimation of the final size and the turning point of the epidemic and conduct a real-time prediction for the final size of the outbreak using several non-linear models in which these parameters are estimated via model averaging. The proposed method is applied to Zika outbreak data in four cities from Colombia, during the outbreak ocurred in 2015-2016.

Effect of Moxidectin Treatment at Peripartum on Gastrointestinal Parasite Infections in Ewes Raised under Tropical Andes High Altitude Conditions.

This study tested the impact of moxidectin at peripartum on nematode fecal egg count (FEC) and clinical parameters on ewes in the high altitude tropical Andes of Colombia. FEC and clinical evaluations were performed on 9 occasions in 43 naturally infected ewes before and during gestation and after lambing. Moxidectin (Mox, 200 µg kg(-1)) was applied at late pregnancy (T 1, n = 15) or 48 hours after parturition (T 2, n = 14). 14 untreated ewes served as controls (C). Suckling lambs (n = 58) remained untreated and underwent four clinical and parasitological evaluations until 8 weeks after birth. Mox efficacy equaled 99.3% (T 1) and 96.9% (T 2). Highest mean FEC value reflecting periparturient nematode egg rise (PPER) was recorded in C ewes at 4-6 weeks after lambing. Significant FEC reductions were found in T 1 (94.8%) and T 2 (96.7%) ewes (p < 0.05). All lambs showed a significant and ewes-group independent increase in FEC before weaning (p < 0.05). Clinical parameters (anemia and diarrhea) showed time- and treatment-related differences (p < 0.05). Monitoring of FEC and clinical parameters linked to gastrointestinal parasite infections allowed demonstrating that postpartum or preweaning are two critical periods to nematode infection for sheep raised under tropical Andes high altitude conditions. Use of Mox as anthelmintic treatment prevented PPER.

Situational analysis of orphans and vulnerable children in urban and rural communities of Plateau State.

BACKGROUND: Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVC) are children affected by HIV and AIDS by virtue of, among others, living in a household where one or more people are ill, dying or deceased, or which fosters orphans, and children whose care givers are too ill or old to continue to care for them. They often have more health needs than their peers. This study was carried out to obtain baseline information on the needs of OVC in North-Central Nigeria as a basis for provision of relief services. METHODS: A house to house cross-sectional survey of OVC recruited via a multistage sampling technique was carried out in four LGAs of Plateau State, Nigeria. The Child Status Index (CSI) tool was used to obtain information from the respondents and/or their caregivers. Vulnerability of the children was assessed using a Vulnerability Index (VI) scoring which ranged from 1-21, with 1-9 being vulnerable, 10-14 more vulnerable, and 15-21 being most vulnerable. RESULTS: A total of 825 OVC ages ranging from 0-17 years and mean age of 9.8 ± 4.5 years were studied. 432 were males (52.4%) and 393 females (47.6%). 64.8% lived in households headed by women out of which 77.6% were widows. Six hundred and one (72.8%) household heads were farmers. Paternal orphans made up 59.8% of the respondents and 12.1% had lost both parents. Prevalence of abuse/exploitation was 17.7% and 66.7% experienced household food insecurity. Four hundred and seventy-eight (57.9%) OVC lived in households with no source of income. One hundred and fifty-one (18.3%) children (54.9% boys and 45.1% girls) had never been to school. 55.0% had minimal health problems. Majority of them (60.3%) lived in dilapidated shelter and 3.3% were living on the street. CONCLUSION: This survey revealed the various needs of OVC. Efforts to care, support and protect vulnerable children should not only focus on their immediate survival needs such as education, shelter and clothing, but also on long-term developmental needs that reduce children's vulnerability such as life skills, child protection, vocational training, food security and household economic strengthening.

Factors affecting the utilization of long lasting insecticide treated bed nets among people living with HIV/AIDS in Bassa Local Government area of Plateau State, Nigeria.

OBJECTIVE: Malaria and HIV account for over four million deaths per year thereby contributing significantly to the current global health burden. Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) represent a practical and effective means to prevent malaria in Africa. This study was conducted to determine the factors affecting the utilization of Long Lasting Insecticide Treated bed Nets (LLITNs) among People Living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). METHODS: An interventional study with a before and after design conducted among PLHIV to determine the factors affecting the utilization of LLITNs. EPI info statistical software version 3.5.4 was used for data analysis. Confidence interval for this study was set at 95% with a corresponding P ⩽ 0.05 considered statistically significant. RESULTS: This study reported a mean 33.86 + 11.50 years with statistically significant improvement in the consistency of LLITNs use after the intervention. Furthermore, the likelihood of use of LLITNs was 9 times more among respondents with tertiary education when compared to other levels of education (Odd's ratio = 9.3712; 95% CI = 2.5261 - 34.7652; P = 0.0008). CONCLUSION: This study has demonstrated positive influence of provision of free LLITNs supported with health education on the consistent utilization of LLITNs as well as certain factors that can influence LLITNs use.

OBJECTIF: Le Paludisme et le VIH Compte Pour plus de 4 millions de décèsv parano ainsi contribuant ainsi de manièresignificative à l' insectiade de la charge mondiale de santé actuelle imprégnées (MSA) représentent un moyen pratique et éfficace pour prévenir le paludisme en Afrique. Cette étude a été menée afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influent sur l'utilisation à long terme des Moustiquaires imprégnéesd'insecticide (LLTNS) chez les personnes vivantes avec le VIH le SIDA. MÉTHODE: Une étude interventionnelle avec un avant ou après la conception menée auprès la conception menée auprès dc PVVIH afin, de déterminer les facteurs qui influent sur l'utilisation de LTMII EPI info version du logiciel statistique 3.5.4 a été employé pour analyser des données; confidence de l'intervalle pour cette étude a été fixée à 5% avec un correspondant P ⩽ 0.05 considère comme statistiquement significatif. RÉSULTAT: Cette étude a signalé une moyenne de 33.86 + 11.50 ans avec l'amélioration statistiquement significative dans la cohérence de LTMII employé aprèsl'intervention. En outre, la vraisemblance de l'utilisation des TMII était 9 fois plus chez les répondants ayant l'éducation supérieure par rapport aux autres niveaux de l'éducation(le ratio = 9.3712, 95% Cl = 2.5261 ­ 34.7652; P = 0.0008). CONCLUSION: Cette étude avail démontré les influences positives de la provision de LTMI libres, soutenu à l'éducation sanitaire sur l'utilisation cohérente des (LTMII) ainsi que certains facteurs qui peuvent influencer l'utilisation de LTMII.