Correction: Synergies of integrated pest and pollinator management in avocado farming in East Africa: An ex-ante economic analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271241.].

Synergies of integrated pest and pollinator management in avocado farming in East Africa: An ex-ante economic analysis.

Using synthetic pesticides to manage pests can threaten pollination services, affecting the productivity of pollination-dependent crops such as avocado. The need to mitigate this negative externality has led to the emergence of the concept of integrated pest and pollinator management (IPPM) to achieve both pest and pollinator management, leading to complementary or synergistic benefits for yield and quality of the harvest. This paper aims to evaluate the potential economic and welfare impact of IPPM in avocado production systems in Kenya and Tanzania. We utilize both primary and secondary data and employed the economic surplus model. On average the potential economic gain from the adoption of IPPM is US$ 66 million annually in Kenya, with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 13:1, while in Tanzania US$ 1.4 million per year, with a BCR of 34:1. The potential benefits from IPPM intervention gains are expected to reduce the number of poor people in Kenya and Tanzania by 10,464 and 1,255 people per year respectively. The findings conclude that policies that enhance the adoption of IPPM can fast-track economic development and therefore improve the livelihoods of various actors across the avocado value chain.

Temperature-dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): Simulation and visualization of current and future distributions along the Eastern Afromontane.

There is a scarcity of laboratory and field-based results showing the movement of the diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.) across a spatial scale. We studied the population growth of the diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.) under six constant temperatures, to understand and predict population changes along altitudinal gradients and under climate change scenarios. Non-linear functions were fitted to continuously model DBM development, mortality, longevity and oviposition. We compiled the best-fitted functions for each life stage to yield a phenology model, which we stochastically simulated to estimate the life table parameters. Three temperature-dependent indices (establishment, generation and activity) were derived from a logistic population growth model and then coupled to collected current (2013) and downscaled temperature data from AFRICLIM (2055) for geospatial mapping. To measure and predict the impacts of temperature change on the pest's biology, we mapped the indices along the altitudinal gradients of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania) and Taita Hills (Kenya) and assessed the differences between 2013 and 2055 climate scenarios. The optimal temperatures for development of DBM were 32.5, 33.5 and 33°C for eggs, larvae and pupae, respectively. Mortality rates increased due to extreme temperatures to 53.3, 70.0 and 52.4% for egg, larvae and pupae, respectively. The net reproduction rate reached a peak of 87.4 female offspring/female/generation at 20°C. Spatial simulations indicated that survival and establishment of DBM increased with a decrease in temperature, from low to high altitude. However, we observed a higher number of DBM generations at low altitude. The model predicted DBM population growth reduction in the low and medium altitudes by 2055. At higher altitude, it predicted an increase in the level of suitability for establishment with a decrease in the number of generations per year. If climate change occurs as per the selected scenario, DBM infestation may reduce in the selected region. The study highlights the need to validate these predictions with other interacting factors such as cropping practices, host plants and natural enemies.

Carbon monoxide and the nervous system.

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, tasteless, odorless, and non-irritating gas formed when carbon in fuel is not burned completely. It enters the bloodstream through the lungs and attaches to hemoglobin (Hb), the body's oxygen carrier, forming carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) and thereby reducing oxygen (O(2)) delivery to the body's organs and tissues. High COHb concentrations are poisonous. Central nervous system (CNS) effects in individuals suffering acute CO poisoning cover a wide range, depending on severity of exposure: headache, dizziness, weakness, nausea, vomiting, disorientation, confusion, collapse, and coma. At lower concentrations, CNS effects include reduction in visual perception, manual dexterity, learning, driving performance, and attention level. Earlier work is frequently cited to justify the statement that CO exposure sufficient to produce COHb levels of ca. 5% would be sufficient to produce visual sensitivity reduction and various neurobehavioral performance deficits. In a recent literature re-evaluation, however, the best estimate was that [COHb] would have to rise to 15-20% before a 10% reduction in any behavioral or visual measurement could be observed. This conclusion was based on (1) critical review of the literature on behavioral and sensory effects, (2) review and interpretation of the physiological effects of COHb on the CNS, (3) extrapolation from the effects of hypoxic hypoxia to the effects of CO hypoxia, and (4) extrapolation from rat behavioral effects of CO to humans. Also covered in this review article are effects of chronic CO exposure, the discovery of neuroglobin, a summary of the relatively new role for endogenous CO in neurotransmission and vascular homeostasis, groups which might be especially sensitive to CO, and recommendations on further research. The interested reader is directed to other published reviews of the literature on CO and historically seminal references that form our understanding of this ubiquitous gas.

Quantitative cross-species extrapolation in noncancer risk assessment.

A procedure has been developed to extrapolate dose-effect findings across species and quantify some of the associated uncertainty via traditional statistical methods. The relationship between dose-effect curves which are known in two species can be described by a k-parameter dose equivalence equation (DEE). When a DEE is determined for as many agents of a given "family" as are known, a k-dimensional distribution of DEE parameters would obtain. When an actual extrapolation is to be made for a new agent of the same family which has not been (or cannot be) tested in the species to which results are to be extrapolated, the best estimate of the parameters of the new DEE would be some measure of central tendency and the best estimate of the uncertainty would be the variance/covariance of the k-dimensional distribution of DEE parameters. The method of extrapolation seeks to compliment the mechanistic knowledge or be a substitute for mechanistic methods in the large majority of cases where such understanding is lacking.

A dosimetric analysis of behavioral effects of acute toluene exposure in rats and humans.

The literature on behavioral effects of exposure to toluene is difficult to assess due, in part, to a wide variety of exposure conditions employed and outcomes measured. This study investigated whether previous experiments would be more consistent with each other if toluene exposure parameters were expressed not as concentration and duration, but as estimated amount of toluene in tissues. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was used to estimate concentration of toluene in arterial blood (CaTOL) from published studies in rats and humans exposed acutely to toluene vapor. Data for rats were selected from studies of avoidance behavior using both rate of responding and measures of successful responding. Data for humans were from studies of choice reaction time (CRT). Behavioral measures were converted to proportion of baseline to place them on a common scale across experiments. A meta-analysis was done to fit dose-effect curves using CaTOL and the rescaled effects. Results demonstrated that effects were an orderly function of CaTOL and were not influenced by concentration or duration of exposure, except as exposure influenced CaTOL. In rats, response rates first increased, reached a peak, and then declined as CaTOL increased. Successful avoidance in rats and CRT in humans always declined as CaTOL increased. In rats, response rates were increased by 10% at CaTOL approximately 13 ml/L. In humans, reaction times increased by 10% at CaTOL approximately 3 ml/L. Cross-species comparisons were made with the following caveats: PBPK uncertainties, few human data, and poor task comparability.

Systematic considerations in the area of multiple chemical sensitivity.

Many workers who speculate about multiple chemical sensitivity (MCS) have devised a large number of hypothetical constructs designed to explain the phenomena. Too often these are not logically connected to the larger body of scientific thought but instead appeal to ideas not documented in accessible literature and often appearing metaphysical in nature.

A model to predict carboxyhemoglobin and pulmonary parameters after exposure to O2, CO2, and CO.

A computer-based physiological model of respiratory gas exchange, which considered variation in inhaled oxygen and carbon dioxide, was modified to include the effects of inhaled carbon monoxide. Output from the modified model consists of 60 variables, including blood, alveolar and tissue gases, ventilatory function and carboxyhemoglobin. Extensive testing demonstrated that this model produced accurate results for known problems and physiologically plausible results for situations in which the results were not empirically known. Estimates of the effects of simultaneous continuously varying exposure to carbon monoxide, oxygen and carbon dioxide cannot be practically obtained with other extant methods. The modified model receives input from two computer files containing environmental and subject physiological variables. These files allow a continuous dynamic multi-gas exposure simulation or actual exposure data profiles. Up to four outputs can be selected for plotting or stored in a file for later analysis.

Effect of regional circulation patterns on observed HbCO levels.

In an earlier experiment, we briefly exposed 15 young men to high levels of CO while simultaneously monitoring arterial and peripheral venous HbCO levels. The arterial HbCO levels were considerably higher than the venous levels during the CO exposure. Furthermore, great variation in the difference between arterial and venous HbCO levels was observed, with the maximal difference for each subject ranging from 2.3 to 12.1% HbCO. In the present paper, we suggest an explanation for the observed differences between arterial and venous HbCO on the basis of the regional circulation of the forearm, where both samples were taken. Because regional circulation patterns are known to vary with physical training, the differences in physical training between subjects may account for the observed variation. An expanded model was derived from the Coburn-Forster-Kane equation, which reflects the above hypothesis. Most of the parameter values for the expanded model were measured on individual subjects. Literature values were used for other parameters. Two parameters were estimated using five of the subjects and were then used in the predictions of the expanded model for the remaining subjects.

Carboxyhemoglobin formation due to carbon monoxide exposure in rats.

The Coburn-Forster-Kane equation (CFKE) is a well-tested model for prediction of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) formation due to carbon monoxide (CO) exposure in humans. There have been few and relatively poorly tested attempts to implement a CFKE for rats. Such an implementation is of interest because many experiments on the effects of CO in rats were done without measuring COHb. To extrapolate from rats to humans requires a rat version of the CFKE. Rats were exposed to 150, 250, 500, and 1000 ppm CO for up to 240 min. Blood gases and COHb were measured. A CFKE was implemented for rats by using parameters found in the literature and estimating them from the data. It was deduced from the blood-gas data that rats hyperventilate slightly as COHb increases. The blood-gas data were used to estimate ventilation and alveolar capillary oxygen partial pressure. The hyperventilation required an iterative solution to the CFKE. The iterative CFKE predictions were found to differ statistically from observations, but in explainable ways and/or in small amounts.

Prediction of carboxyhemoglobin formation due to transient exposure to carbon monoxide.

Fifteen men were exposed to 6,683 ppm C18O for 3.09-6.65 min. Arterial and antecubital vein blood samples were drawn at 1-min intervals beginning at the start of C18O inhalation and ending 10 min later. Simultaneously, alveolar ventilation was calculated from the measured values of minute ventilation and dead space. All other parameters of the Coburn-Forster-Kane equation (CFKE), except the Haldane affinity ratio, were measured separately in each subject. Means of CFKE predictions of increases in venous HbCO (delta HbCO) in samples collected approximately 2 min after cessation of exposure were accurate, but the range in errors of prediction for individual subjects was +/- 3.8% HbCO, depending on the time after exposure cessation. Increases in venous and arterial HbCO were inaccurately predicted during and immediately after HbCO formation, however. Venous blood was overestimated during CO uptake because of a delayed appearance of HbCO. Individual subjects differed markedly in the degree of delay of HbCO appearance in venous blood. Arterial delta HbCO was consistently underestimated either by the CFKE or by predictions based on venous blood samples. Thus, exposure of such organs as brain or heart to HbCO may be substantially higher than expected during transient high-level CO exposure.

Behavioral effects of carbon monoxide: meta analyses and extrapolations.

In the absence of reliable data, this work was performed to estimate the dose-effects function of carboxyhemoglobin (HbCO) on behavior in humans. Meta analysis is the quantitative analysis of the combined findings of a number of research reports. By meta analysis, an HbCO-behavior dose-effects function was estimated for rats and corrected for effects of hypothermia (which accompanies acute HbCO increases in rats but not in humans). By use of pulmonary function models and blood gas equations, equivalent HbCO values were calculated for data in the literature on hypoxic hypoxia and behavior. Another meta analysis was performed to fit a dose-effects function to the equivalent HbCO data and to correct for the behavioral effects of hypocapnia (which usually occurs during hypoxic hypoxia but not with HbCO elevation). The two extrapolations agreed closely and indicated that, for healthy sedentary persons, 18-25% HbCO would be required to produce a 10% decrement in behavior. Confidence intervals are computed to characterize the uncertainty. Frequent reports of lower-level effects are discussed.

Importance of experimenter-blind procedure in neurotoxicology.

The importance of having the investigator blind to the experimental condition of a human subject was demonstrated using meta analysis of 43 reports of the effects of carbon monoxide (CO) on behavior. It was shown that 75% of single-blind studies found significant CO effects as opposed to only 26% of double-blind studies (difference was significant, p < 0.005). It was also not possible to show that the difference could have been due to different CO exposure levels, different statistical practices, or different study group sizes. The failure to follow double-blind procedure has been partly responsible for disagreement about the effects of CO reported in the literature. Investigator blinding is also important in laboratory animal research.

Carboxyhemoglobin and brain blood flow in humans.

It has been shown that with increased carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) and associated decrease in blood oxygen-carrying capacity, a compensatory increase in brain-blood flow (BBF) develops. The BBF response in humans has been shown to be quite variable. Two experiments were conducted in which humans were exposed to sufficient carbon monoxide (CO) to produce COHb levels up to 18.4%. BBF was measured by the method of impedance plethysmography. The first was a pilot study in which BBF in 14 men was studied after transient exposure to various concentrations of CO in air. BBF increased as a function of COHb but not to the same extent (or at all) in some subjects. In a confirmatory experiment with 12 men, BBF was measured once per h during a 4-h experiment. All 12 subjects received CO. The variation of the BBF response among subjects was large and statistically significant whereas the variation over time was not significant. Thus it appears that the magnitude of the BBF response is unique for a given subject and differs across subjects. These results may help predict CO-induced behavioral decrements in future studies if subjects whose BBF response to COHb is small or absent are also more susceptible to impairment by acute CO exposure.

Increasing scientific power with statistical power.

A survey of basic ideas in statistical power analysis demonstrates the advantages and ease of using power analysis throughout the design, analysis, and interpretation of research. The power of a statistical test is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis of the test. The traditional approach to power involves computation of only a single power value. The more general power curve allows examining the range of power determinants, which are sample size, population difference, and error variance, in traditional ANOVA. Power analysis can be useful not only in study planning, but also in the evaluation of existing research. An important application is in concluding that no scientifically important treatment difference exists. Choosing an appropriate power depends on: a) opportunity costs, b) ethical trade-offs, c) the size of effect considered important, d) the uncertainty of parameter estimates, and e) the analyst's preferences. Although precise rules seem inappropriate, several guidelines are defensible. First, the sensitivity of the power curve to particular characteristics of the study, such as the error variance, should be examined in any power analysis. Second, just as a small type I error rate should be demonstrated in order to declare a difference nonzero, a small type II error should be demonstrated in order to declare a difference zero. Third, when ethical and opportunity costs do not preclude it, power should be at least .84, and preferably greater than .90.

Quantitative methods for cross-species mapping (CSM).

Cross-species extrapolation will be defined as prediction from one species to another without empirical vetification. Cross-species mapping (CSM) is the same except empirical vetification is performed. CSM may be viewed as validation of methods for extrapolation. Algorithms for CSM may originate from theory, from empirical observations or a combination of the two. Regardless of their origins, CSM algorithms must be explicated and confidence intervals given around their predictions. This paper offers a quantitative method for constructing CSM equations which is useful in evaluation of the CSM and as an aid in the design of new experiments in CSM and extrapolation. The method requires fitting mathematical models for the physiological or behavioral phenomena to be mapped across species. A CSM equation can then be derived from the models in each species and approximate confidence limits may be obtained for predictions from the equation. The method is useful even when the models in the two species differ in form, implying differences in physiology or behavioral principles between species. The method proposed has a number of remaining uncertainties and possible problems.

Dose-effects functions for carboxyhemoglobin and behavior.

Literature on dose-effects functions of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) and human behavior is internally inconsistent. A recent study was performed to describe such a function for tracking behavior in humans (7). No significant effects were found, however, even for COHb levels up to ca. 17%. The present review and analysis of published data was undertaken to attempt to reduce uncertainty about COHb dose-effects functions. Dose-effects data from six laboratory animal operant behavior studies were reviewed. Maximum COHb levels ranged from 33 to 59%. Data were converted to a common metric and dose-effects functions were fitted. The preferred function was nonlinear, with a shallow slope, indicating small effects (if any) for COHb levels less than ca. 20%. As COHb increased further, the slope of the function became progressively steeper. Review of the human dose-effects function publications for COHb and behavior revealed that no significant findings had survived the test of direct or partial replication. Other studies found no significant effects. A dose-effects curve was fitted to the human data from one study (7) and compared to the laboratory animal curves. Extrapolation of the human curve was used to suggest that the dose-effects curves for humans and laboratory animals were of similar form and that effects of COHb on behavior in man are small or absent below ca. 20%. It is also possible that some uncontrolled variables are affecting the results so that COHb produces effects only some of the time. No conclusion can be drawn from the body of literature due to the divergence of results.

Compensatory tracking in humans with elevated carboxyhemoglobin.

A total of seventy-four men divided into five groups performed a compensatory tracking task for 4 hr with group mean carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels of 0.9, 5.6, 6.1, 11.4 or 16.6%. In all but one group, COHb was formed in approximately 5 min by having the subject breathe a high concentration of carbon monoxide (CO) from a Douglas bag. An appropriate low level of CO in the exposure/test chamber maintained the elevated COHb for the 4-hr duration of the experiment. A slow COHb formation group, not exposed to CO during bag breathing, which was only exposed to low-level CO in the exposure/testing chamber, served as a positive control. Even though mean tracking error scores increased in a nearly monotone manner as a function of COHb, the effects were not statistically significant. Even at the highest dose, the increase in tracking error was small. The increased mean error score due to rapid formation was virtually the same as that due to slow formation.

Carbon monoxide exposure and human visual detection thresholds.

In order to test for CO exposure effects on vision, a battery of visual tests was administered to male college students. All subjects completed the battery of tests both before and during an exposure period in a double-blind study. Experimental subjects received CO during the exposure period, whereas control subjects received only room air. The battery of visual tests was designed for the assessment of scotopic (dark adapted, rod mediated) detection, photopic (light adapted, cone mediated) detection, the pattern detection process and the motion detection process. Contrast thresholds for the detection of stimulus pattern and for the detection of stimulus motion were measured under both photopic and scotopic viewing conditions, and sensitivity was monitored throughout the course of dark adaptation by measuring luminance thresholds. The results indicated that visual function in healthy, young-adult males was not affected by a COHb level of about 17% which was maintained for over 2 hours.

Babble and random-noise masking of speech in high and low context cue conditions.

"Perceptual" masking of speech by multitalker speech (babble) has been widely reported but poorly quantified. Furthermore, the validity of the construct of perceptual masking is questionable. This report describes an experiment using a newly standardized test of speech perception in noise (SPIN) with both babble and spectrally matched random-noise maskers. Classical psychophysical ogive curves were used to model speech recognition as a function of signal-to-noise ratio (S/N). The two maskers yielded speech recognition functions of the same steepness but different locations on the S/N axis. The high-context items of SPIN yielded speech recognition curves with steeper slope and different locations on the S/N axis than the low-context items. These data are used to argue that perceptual masking was not documented (under certain assumptions) and that the superior masking of babble may be explained in purely acoustical terms. Speculations are offered about the possible acoustical differences that could be responsible for the differences in masking effect.