Coherent long-term body-size responses across all Northwest Atlantic herring populations to warming and environmental change despite contrasting harvest and ecological factors.

Body size is a key component of individual fitness and an important factor in the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems. Disentangling the effects of environmental change, harvest and intra- and inter-specific trophic effects on body size remains challenging for populations in the wild. Herring in the Northwest Atlantic provide a strong basis for evaluating hypotheses related to these drivers given that they have experienced significant warming and harvest over the past century, while also having been exposed to a wide range of other selective constraints across their range. Using data on mean length-at-age 4 for the sixteen principal populations over a period of 53 cohorts (1962-2014), we fitted a series of empirical models for temporal and between-population variation in the response to changes in sea surface temperature. We find evidence for a unified cross-population response in the form of a parabolic function according to which populations in naturally warmer environments have responded more negatively to increasing temperature compared with those in colder locations. Temporal variation in residuals from this function was highly coherent among populations, further suggesting a common response to a large-scale environmental driver. The synchrony observed in this study system, despite strong differences in harvest and ecological histories among populations and over time, clearly indicates a dominant role of environmental change on size-at-age in wild populations, in contrast to commonly reported effects of fishing. This finding has important implications for the management of fisheries as it indicates that a key trait associated with population productivity may be under considerably less short-term management control than currently assumed. Our study, overall, illustrates the need for a comparative approach within species for inferences concerning the many possible effects on body size of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the wild.

Risk of extinction of a unique skate population due to predation by a recovering marine mammal.

Benefitting from reduced harvesting and an end to culling, many marine mammals are now recovering from past overexploitation. These recoveries represent important conservation successes but present a serious conservation problem when the recovering mammals are predators of species of conservation concern. Here, we examine the role of predation by recovering grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) in the near-extinction of a unique skate population in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL) in Atlantic Canada. Winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) in the sGSL are distinct from winter skate elsewhere and may represent an endemic species. Their adult abundance has declined by 98% since 1980, and these skates are now detectable in only a small fraction of their former range. Population modeling indicates that the ongoing collapse of this population is due to increases in the natural mortality of adults. Based on model projections, this population would be extinct by mid-century if its current rate of productivity were to persist. A second population model incorporated predation by grey seals. Model estimates of skate consumption by seals were consistent with historical and recent estimates of the contribution of skates to grey seal diets. The estimated consumption accounted for the increases in the natural mortality of adult skates. A Type III functional response for grey seals preying on winter skate emerged from the model results. This indicates that, when skate abundance is very low, grey seals are expected to switch to alternate prey, resulting in declines in the mortality of skates due to predation. Consequently, contrary to projections at current productivity, winter skate are expected to be trapped at very low abundance in a "predator pit" instead of declining to extinction. Nonetheless, extinction risk would remain very high at the very small population size in the predator pit. Our results emphasize the need for an ecosystem-based approach to the management of living resources in this ecosystem.

Spawning-strategy-dependent diets in two North American populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

The diet of repeat-spawner Atlantic salmon Salmo salar was investigated using carbon and nitrogen stable-isotope values from the outer growth band of scales, which reflect the fish's consumption and growth during their most recent marine phase. Isotope values for S. salar displaying different spawning strategies were compared between and within the Miramichi and Nashwaak Rivers, New Brunswick, Canada and a Bayesian mixing model was used to infer dietary contributions from potential prey items. Significant differences in the stable-isotope values were found among spawning strategies and between rivers, indicating differences in diet and feeding area, consistent with hypotheses. Bayesian mixing model results inferred the main prey items consumed during marine feeding by S. salar to consist of hyperiid amphipods and capelin Mallotus villosus for repeat alternate spawners from both rivers, sandlance Ammodytes sp. for repeat consecutive spawners from the Miramichi River and amphipods for repeat consecutive spawners from the Nashwaak River. These results demonstrate the diversity of feeding tactics among S. salar spawning strategies from the same river and between populations from different rivers. Accounting for differences in prey availability and the subsequent impact on S. salar diet and spawner return rates (i.e., marine survival) will facilitate the application of ecosystem-based management practices, such as ensuring that fisheries for forage species do not indirectly adversely affect S. salar return rates.

Effects of different slipping methods on the mortality of sardine, Sardina pilchardus, after purse-seine capture off the Portuguese Southern coast (Algarve).

The effects of two different slipping methods on the survival, physical and physiological response of sardines, Sardina pilchardus, captured in a purse-seine fishery were investigated in southern Portugal. Sardines were collected and transferred into holding tanks onboard a commercial fishing vessel after being captured, crowded and deliberately released using two slipping procedures: standard and modified. The standard slipping procedure aggregated fish at high densities and made them "roll over" the floatline, while the modified procedure aggregated the fish at moderate densities and enabled them to escape through an opening created by adding weights to the floatline. Both slipping methods were compared with minimally harmed non-slipped sardines (sardines collected from the loose pocket of the purse seine). Survival rates were monitored in captivity over 28 days using three replicates for each treatment. The estimated survival of sardines was 43.6% for the non-slipped fish, 44.7% for the modified slipping and 11.7% for the standard slipping treatments. Scale loss indicated the level of physical impact experienced, with dead fish from the non-slipped and modified slipping technique showing significantly lower scale loss than those fish from the standard slipping treatment within the same period. Of the physiological indicators of stress measured, cortisol, glucose, lactate and osmolality attained peak values during slipping and up to the first hours after introduction to captivity. This work indicates that although delayed mortality after release may be substantial, appropriately modified slipping techniques significantly enhance survival of slipped sardines.

Survival of European plaice discarded from coastal otter trawl fisheries in the English Channel.

Species that have a high likelihood of surviving the discarding process have become great concern since the European Union reformed the Common Fisheries Policy and enacted a landing obligation prohibiting the discarding any individuals of species under quota. Among species presenting an elevated survival potential, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) is one of the most discarded in the coastal otter trawl fishery in the English Channel. The objective of this study is to provide the most reliable estimates of plaice survival after release in commercial conditions, and to identify the factors that influence survival rates. A captivity experiment was conducted in January-February in the English fishery to assess the survival of discarded plaice as a function of a semi-quantitative index of fish vitality, which has been demonstrated to be a good proxy of fish survival in comparable fishing and environmental conditions. This study examined the potential of this index to estimate discard survival in three trials from the English and French fisheries and at three different seasons. The vitality index was then used to analyse the influence of several factors (fishing practices, environmental conditions and fish biological characteristics) on the discard survival. The survival rates for plaice were accurately estimated at 62.8% in January-February, 66.6% in November and 45.2% in July. While these rates remained substantial whatever the fishing, environmental or fish biological conditions, the time fish spent on the deck, the bottom and air temperatures, the tow depth and the fish length had a significant influence on plaice survival. In practice, plaice survival could be enhanced by releasing the fish early during catch sorting and avoiding exposure to extreme air temperatures.

Comment on "Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery".

Pershing et al (Science, 13 November 2015, p. 809) concluded that recent warming in the Gulf of Maine contributed to the collapse of Gulf of Maine cod. We argue that this conclusion is based on a flawed analysis of the population dynamics of this cod stock. We believe that understanding the potential role of climate change in the collapse of this stock requires more defensible analyses.

Spatial distribution of fishes in a Northwest Atlantic ecosystem in relation to risk of predation by a marine mammal.

1. Numerous studies have shown that, at spatial scales of metres to several kilometres, animals balance the trade-off between foraging success and predation mortality by increasing their use of safer but less profitable habitats as predation risk increases. However, it is less clear whether prey respond similarly at the larger spatiotemporal scales of many ecosystems. 2. We determine whether this behaviour is evident in a large marine ecosystem, the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL, 75 000 km(2) ) over a 42-year period. This ecosystem is characterized by a recent increase in the abundance of a large marine predator, the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus Fabricius), by more than an order of magnitude. 3. We compared changes in spatial distribution over the 1971-2012 period between important prey of grey seals (Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua L.; white hake, Urophycis tenuis Mitchill; and thorny skate, Amblyraja radiata Donovan) and non-prey fishes. 4. Distribution was modelled using generalized additive models incorporating spatially variable effects of predation risk, density dependence and water temperature. Distributions of cod, hake and skate were strongly related to risk of predation by seals, with distribution shifting into lower risk areas as predation risk increased. Non-prey species did not show similar changes in habitat use. Spatial variation in fish condition suggests that these low-risk areas are also less profitable for cod and skate in terms of food availability. The effects of density dependence and water temperature were also important in models, but did not account for the changes in habitat use as the risk of predation increased. 5. These results indicate that these fish are able to assess and respond to spatial variation in predation risk at very large spatial scales. They also suggest that non-consumptive 'risk' effects may be an important component of the declines in productivity of seal prey in this ecosystem, and of the indirect effects at lower trophic levels.