ABSTRACT
UNLABELLED: This study, characterizing the incidence of hip fracture in the province of Rabat, showed that age- and sex-specific rates remained stable between 2006 and 2009. The demographic projections estimated for Morocco indicate that between 2010 and 2030, the expected annual number of hip fractures would increase about twofold. INTRODUCTION: No data on hip fracture incidence trends exist from Africa. The aim of the study was to determine time trends in hip fracture rates for the province of Rabat and to forecast the number of hip fractures expected in Morocco up to 2030. METHODS: All hip fracture cases registered during the years 2006-2009 were collected at all the public hospitals and private clinics with a trauma unit and/or a permanent orthopedic surgeon across the province. RESULTS: Over the 4-year period, 723 (54.3%) hip fractures were recorded in women and 607 (45.6%) in men. The age- and gender-specific incidence of hip fracture rose steeply with advancing age. Hip fractures occurred later in women 75.0 (10.7) years than in men 73.3 (11.0) years (p=0.014), and its incidence was higher in women than in men [85.9 (95% CI 79.7-92.2) per 100,000 person-years vs. 72.7 (95% CI 66.9-78.5)]. The incidence remained globally stable over the period study, and the linear regression analysis showed no significant statistical difference. For the year 2010, there were 4,327 hip fractures estimated in Morocco (53.3% in women). Assuming no change in the age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture from 2010 to 2030, the number of hip fractures in men is expected to increase progressively from 2,019 to 3,961 and from 2,308 to 4,259 in women. CONCLUSION: The age-specific incidence of hip fracture between the years 2006 and 2009 remained stable in Morocco, and the number of expected hip fractures would double between 2010 and 2030.
