The Economic Impact of Space Weather: Where Do We Stand?

Space weather describes the way in which the Sun, and conditions in space more generally, impact human activity and technology both in space and on the ground. It is now well understood that space weather represents a significant threat to infrastructure resilience, and is a source of risk that is wide-ranging in its impact and the pathways by which this impact may occur. Although space weather is growing rapidly as a field, work rigorously assessing the overall economic cost of space weather appears to be in its infancy. Here, we provide an initial literature review to gather and assess the quality of any published assessments of space weather impacts and socioeconomic studies. Generally speaking, there is a good volume of scientific peer-reviewed literature detailing the likelihood and statistics of different types of space weather phenomena. These phenomena all typically exhibit "power-law" behavior in their severity. The literature on documented impacts is not as extensive, with many case studies, but few statistical studies. The literature on the economic impacts of space weather is rather sparse and not as well developed when compared to the other sections, most probably due to the somewhat limited data that are available from end-users. The major risk is attached to power distribution systems and there is disagreement as to the severity of the technological footprint. This strongly controls the economic impact. Consequently, urgent work is required to better quantify the risk of future space weather events.

TEPC measurements in commercial aircraft.

The collaborative project involving the Mullard Space Science Laboratory (MSSL), Virgin Atlantic Airways (VAA), the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and the UK National Physical Laboratory (NPL) has been performing tissue-equivalent proportional counter measurements of cosmic ray doses in commercial aircraft since January 2000. In that time data have been recorded on over 700 flights, including over 150 flights with Air New Zealand (ANZ). This substantial set of data from the southern hemisphere is an ideal complement to the London-based measurements performed primarily on VAA flights. Although some ANZ data remains to be analysed, dose information from 111 flights has been compared with the CARI and EPCARD computer codes. Overall, the agreement between the measurements and EPCARD was excellent (within 1% for the total ambient dose equivalent), and the difference in the total effective doses predicted by EPCARD and CARI was <5%.

The evaluation and use of a portable TEPC system for measuring in-flight exposure to cosmic radiation.

A recent EC directive has called for all member states to introduce legislation covering the assessment and restriction of air crew exposure to cosmic radiation. In the UK the Civil Aviation Authority, in conjunction with the Department of the Environment. Transport and the Regions issued guidelines suggesting the use of a predictive code such as CARI for this purpose. In order to validate the use of calculated route doses, an extensive programme of measurements is being carried out on long haul routes in conjunction with Virgin Atlantic Airways, using a prototype HAWK TEPC developed by Far West Technology. This programme began in January 2000 and by the end of February 2001 had resulted in the accumulation of data from 74 flights. In this paper the instrument design is discussed, together with the calibration programme. An overview of the in-flight results is also presented, including comparisons between measurements and calculations, which indicates that CARI under-predicts the route doses by approximately 20%.