How soccer scouts identify talented players.

Scouts of soccer clubs are often the first to identify talented players. However, there is a lack of research on how these scouts assess and predict overall soccer performance. Therefore, we conducted a large-scaled study to examine the process of talent identification among 125 soccer scouts. Through an online self-report questionnaire, scouts were asked about (1) the players' age at which they can predict players' soccer performance, (2) the attributes they consider relevant, and (3) the extent to which they predict performance in a structured manner. The most important results are as follows. First, scouts who observed 12-year-old and younger players perceived they could predict at older ages (13.6 years old, on average) whether a player has the potential to become a professional soccer player. This suggests that scouts are aware of the idea that early indicators of later performance are often lacking, yet do advise on selection of players at younger ages. Second, when identifying talented players, scouts considered more easily observable attributes, such as technical attributes. However, scouts described these often in a broad sense rather than in terms of specific predictors of future performance. Finally, scouts reported that they assess attributes of players in a structured manner. Yet, they ultimately based their prediction (i.e. final score) on an intuitive integration of different performance attributes, which is a suboptimal strategy according to existing literature. Taken together, these outcomes provide specific clues to improve the reliability and validity of the scouting process. HighlightsBased on a large sample of soccer scouts, we examine three issues that are important in the process of identifying talented soccer players: The age at which good performance predictions can be made, which attributes are relevant predictors, and how performance predictions are formed.Scouts who observe players in young age cohorts believe that the age at which they can predict performance is older than the players they typically scout, suggesting that they are aware that early indicators of performance are often lacking.Technical performance attributes are considered as most important performance predictors by scouts, but these are often described in a broad - rather than specific - sense.Scouts indicate that they predict performance in a structured manner, but form their overall performance prediction on an intuitive integration of different performance attributes, which can be a suboptimal approach.

The validity of small-sided games in predicting 11-vs-11 soccer game performance.

Predicting performance in soccer games has been a major focus within talent identification and development. Past research has mainly used performance levels, such as elite vs. non-elite players, as the performance to predict (i.e. the criterion). Moreover, these studies have mainly focused on isolated performance attributes as predictors of soccer performance levels. However, there has been an increasing interest in finer grained criterion measures of soccer performance, as well as representative assessments at the level of performance predictors. In this study, we first determined the degree to which 7-vs-7 small-sided games can be considered as representative of 11-vs-11 games. Second, we assessed the validity of individual players' small-sided game performance in predicting their 11-vs-11 game performance on a continuous scale. Moreover, we explored the predictive validity for 11-vs-11 game performance of several physiological and motor tests in isolation. Sixty-three elite youth players of a professional soccer academy participated in 11 to 17 small-sided games and six 11-vs-11 soccer games. In-game performance indicators were assessed through notational analysis and combined into an overall offensive and defensive performance measure, based on their relationship with game success. Physiological and motor abilities were assessed using a sprint, endurance, and agility test. Results showed that the small-sided games were faster paced, but representative of 11-vs-11 games, with the exception of aerial duels. Furthermore, individual small-sided game performance yielded moderate predictive validities with 11-vs-11 game performance. In contrast, the physiological and motor tests yielded small to trivial relations with game performance. Altogether, this study provides novel insights into the application of representative soccer assessments and the use of continuous criterion measures of soccer performance.

Methodological Issues in Soccer Talent Identification Research.

Talent identification research in soccer comprises the prediction of elite soccer performance. While many studies in this field have aimed to empirically relate performance characteristics to subsequent soccer success, a critical evaluation of the methodology of these studies has mostly been absent in the literature. In this position paper, we discuss advantages and limitations of the design, validity, and utility of current soccer talent identification research. Specifically, we draw on principles from selection psychology that can contribute to best practices in the context of making selection decisions across domains. Based on an extensive search of the soccer literature, we identify four methodological issues from this framework that are relevant for talent identification research, i.e. (1) the operationalization of criterion variables (the performance to be predicted) as performance levels; (2) the focus on isolated performance indicators as predictors of soccer performance; (3) the effects of range restriction on the predictive validity of predictors used in talent identification; and (4) the effect of the base rate on the utility of talent identification procedures. Based on these four issues, we highlight opportunities and challenges for future soccer talent identification studies that may contribute to developing evidence-based selection procedures. We suggest for future research to consider the use of individual soccer criterion measures, to adopt representative, high-fidelity predictors of soccer performance, and to take restriction of range and the base rate into account.