A carbon mass-balance budget for a periglacial catchment in West Greenland - Linking the terrestrial and aquatic systems.

Climate change is predicted to have far reaching consequences for the mobility of carbon in arctic landscapes. On a regional scale, carbon cycling is highly dependent on interactions between terrestrial and aquatic parts of a catchment. Despite this, studies that integrate the terrestrial and aquatic systems and study entire catchments using site-specific data are rare. In this work, we use data partly published by Lindborg et al. (2016a) to calculate a whole-catchment carbon mass-balance budget for a periglacial catchment in West Greenland. Our budget shows that terrestrial net primary production is the main input of carbon (99% of input), and that most carbon leaves the system through soil respiration (90% of total export/storage). The largest carbon pools are active layer soils (53% of total carbon stock or 13 kg C m-2), permafrost soils (30% of total carbon stock or 7.6 kg C m-2) and lake sediments (13% of total carbon stock or 10 kg C m-2). Hydrological transport of carbon from the terrestrial to aquatic system is lower than in wetter climates, but the annual input of 4100 kg C yr-1 (or 3.5 g C m-2 yr-1) that enters the lake via runoff is still three times larger than the eolian input of terrestrial carbon. Due to the dry conditions, the hydrological export of carbon from the catchment is limited (5% of aquatic export/storage or 0.1% of total export/storage). Instead, CO2 evasion from the lake surface and sediment burial accounts for 57% and 38% of aquatic export/storage, respectively (or 0.8% and 0.5% of total export/storage), and Two-Boat Lake acts as a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. The limited export of carbon to downstream water bodies make our study system different from wetter arctic environments, where hydrological transport is an important export pathway for carbon.

The impact of low and intermediate-level radioactive waste on humans and the environment over the next one hundred thousand years.

In order to assess the potential radiological risk to humans and the environment from a geological repository for radioactive waste, a safety assessment must be performed. This implies that the release and transfer of radionuclides from the repository into the surface environment are calculated and that the effects in the biosphere are evaluated for an assessment period up to one hundred thousand years according to Swedish regulations. This paper discusses the challenges associated with the modelling of surface ecosystems over such long time scales, using the recently completed assessment for the extension of the existing repository for the low- and intermediate-level nuclear waste (called SFR) in Forsmark, Sweden as an applied example. In the assessment, natural variation and uncertainties in climate during the assessment period were captured by using a set of climate cases, primarily reflecting different expectations on the effects of global warming. Development of the landscape at the site, due to post-glacial isostatic rebound, was modelled, and areas where modelling indicated that radionuclides could discharge into the biosphere were identified. Transfers of surface water and groundwater were described with spatially distributed hydrological models. The projected release of radionuclides from the bedrock was then fed into a biosphere radionuclide transport model, simulating the transport and fate of radionuclides within and between ecosystems in the landscape. Annual doses for human inhabitants were calculated by combining activity concentrations in environmental media (soil, water, air and plants) with assumptions on habits and land-use of future human inhabitants. Similarly, dose rates to representative organisms of non-human biota were calculated from activity concentrations in relevant habitats, following the ERICA methodology. In the main scenario, the calculated risk for humans did not exceed the risk criteria or the screening dose rate for non-human biota, indicating that the repository design is sufficient to protect future populations and the environment. Although the combination of radionuclides, land-uses/habitats, type of most exposed population and area of exposure that contribute most to the total dose shifts over time, the total calculated dose shows limited variability. Significant reductions in the dose only occur during submerged periods and under periglacial climate conditions. As several different water and food pathways were equally important for endpoint results, it is concluded that it would be difficult to represent the biosphere with one or a set of simplified models. Instead, we found that it is important to maintain a diversity of food and water pathways, as key pathways for radionuclide accumulation and exposure partly worked in parallel.

From site data to safety assessment: analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at a coastal site in Sweden.

This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 AD), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances.

Identification and characterization of potential discharge areas for radionuclide transport by groundwater from a nuclear waste repository in Sweden.

This paper describes solute transport modeling carried out as a part of an assessment of the long-term radiological safety of a planned deep rock repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark, Sweden. Specifically, it presents transport modeling performed to locate and describe discharge areas for groundwater potentially carrying radionuclides from the repository to the surface where man and the environment could be affected by the contamination. The modeling results show that topography to large extent determines the discharge locations. Present and future lake and wetland objects are central for the radionuclide transport and dose calculations in the safety assessment. Results of detailed transport modeling focusing on the regolith and the upper part of the rock indicate that the identification of discharge areas and objects considered in the safety assessment is robust in the sense that it does not change when a more detailed model representation is used.

Conceptual and numerical modeling of radionuclide transport and retention in near-surface systems.

Scenarios of barrier failure and radionuclide release to the near-surface environment are important to consider within performance and safety assessments of repositories for nuclear waste. A geological repository for spent nuclear fuel is planned at Forsmark, Sweden. Conceptual and numerical reactive transport models were developed in order to assess the retention capacity of the Quaternary till and clay deposits for selected radionuclides, in the event of an activity release from the repository. The elements considered were carbon (C), chlorine (Cl), cesium (Cs), iodine (I), molybdenum (Mo), niobium (Nb), nickel (Ni), radium (Ra), selenium (Se), strontium (Sr), technetium (Tc), thorium (Th), and uranium (U). According to the numerical predictions, the repository-derived nuclides that would be most significantly retained are Th, Ni, and Cs, mainly through sorption onto clays, followed by U, C, Sr, and Ra, trapped by sorption and/or incorporation into mineral phases.

Ecohydrological responses to diversion of groundwater: case study of a deep-rock repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden.

Planning and license applications concerning groundwater diversion in areas containing water-dependent or water-favored habitats must take into account both hydrological effects and associated ecological consequences. There is at present no established methodology to assess such ecohydrological responses. Thus, this paper describes a new stepwise methodology to assess ecohydrological responses to groundwater diversion from, e.g., water-drained pits, shafts, tunnels, and caverns in rock below the groundwater table. The methodology is illustrated using the planned deep-rock repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark in central Sweden as a case study, offering access to a unique hydrological and ecological dataset. The case study demonstrates that results of ecohydrological assessments can provide useful inputs to planning of monitoring programs and mitigation measures in infrastructure projects. As a result of the assessment, artificial water supply to wetlands is planned in order to preserve biological diversity, nature values, and vulnerable species.

Analysis of water flow paths: methodology and example calculations for a potential geological repository in Sweden.

Safety assessment related to the siting of a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel deep in the bedrock requires identification of potential flow paths and the associated travel times for radionuclides originating at repository depth. Using the Laxemar candidate site in Sweden as a case study, this paper describes modeling methodology, data integration, and the resulting water flow models, focusing on the Quaternary deposits and the upper 150 m of the bedrock. Example simulations identify flow paths to groundwater discharge areas and flow paths in the surface system. The majority of the simulated groundwater flow paths end up in the main surface waters and along the coastline, even though the particles used to trace the flow paths are introduced with a uniform spatial distribution at a relatively shallow depth. The calculated groundwater travel time, determining the time available for decay and retention of radionuclides, is on average longer to the coastal bays than to other biosphere objects at the site. Further, it is demonstrated how GIS-based modeling can be used to limit the number of surface flow paths that need to be characterized for safety assessment. Based on the results, the paper discusses an approach for coupling the present models to a model for groundwater flow in the deep bedrock.