Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling - Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests.

Forests regulate climate, as carbon, water and nutrient fluxes are modified by physiological processes of vegetation and soil. Forests also provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming projected for the boreal zone may change the provision of these ecosystem services. We demonstrate model based estimates of present and future ecosystem services related to carbon cycling of boreal forests. The services were derived from biophysical variables calculated by two dynamic models. Future changes in the biophysical variables were driven by climate change scenarios obtained as results of a sample of global climate models downscaled for Finland, assuming three future pathways of radiative forcing. We introduce continuous monitoring on phenology to be used in model parametrization through a webcam network with automated image processing features. In our analysis, climate change impacts on key boreal forest ecosystem services are both beneficial and detrimental. Our results indicate an increase in annual forest growth of about 60% and an increase in annual carbon sink of roughly 40% from the reference period (1981-2010) to the end of the century. The vegetation active period was projected to start about 3 weeks earlier and end ten days later by the end of the century compared to currently. We found a risk for increasing drought, and a decrease in the number of soil frost days. Our results show a considerable uncertainty in future provision of boreal forest ecosystem services.

Boreal forests can have a remarkable role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions locally: Land use-related and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks at the municipal level.

Ecosystem services have become an important concept in policy-making. Carbon (C) sequestration into ecosystems is a significant ecosystem service, whereas C losses can be considered as an ecosystem disservice. Municipalities are in a position to make decisions that affect local emissions and therefore are important when considering greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Integrated estimations of fluxes at a regional level help local authorities to develop land use policies for minimising GHG emissions and maximising C sinks. In this study, the Finnish national GHG accounting system is modified and applied at the municipal level by combining emissions and sinks from agricultural land, forest areas, water bodies and mires (land use-related GHG emissions) with emissions from activities such as energy production and traffic (anthropogenic GHG emissions) into the LUONNIKAS calculation tool. The study area consists of 14 municipalities within the Vanajavesi catchment area located in Southern Finland. In these municipalities, croplands, peat extraction sites, water bodies and undrained mires are emission sources, whereas forests are large carbon sinks that turn the land use-related GHG budget negative, resulting in C sequestration into the ecosystem. The annual land use-related sink in the study area was 78tCO2eqkm(-2) and 2.8tCO2eq per capita. Annual anthropogenic GHG emissions from the area amounted to 250tCO2eqkm(-2) and 9.2tCO2eq per capita. Since forests are a significant carbon sink and the efficiency of this sink is heavily affected by forest management practices, forest management policy is a key contributing factor for mitigating municipal GHG emissions.