INR targets and site-level anticoagulation control: results from the Veterans AffaiRs Study to Improve Anticoagulation (VARIA).

BACKGROUND: Not all clinicians target the same International Normalized Ratio (INR) for patients with a guideline-recommended target range of 2-3. A patient's mean INR value suggests the INR that was actually targeted. We hypothesized that sites would vary by mean INR, and that sites of care with mean values nearest to 2.5 would achieve better anticoagulation control, as measured by per cent time in therapeutic range (TTR). OBJECTIVES: To examine variations among sites in mean INR and the relationship with anticoagulation control in an integrated system of care. PATIENTS/METHODS: We studied 103,897 patients receiving oral anticoagulation with an expected INR target between 2 and 3 at 100 Veterans Health Administration (VA) sites from 1 October 2006 to 30 September 2008. Key site-level variables were: proportion near 2.5 (that is, percentage of patients with mean INR between 2.3 and 2.7) and mean risk-adjusted TTR. RESULTS: Site mean INR ranged from 2.22 to 2.89; proportion near 2.5, from 30 to 64%. Sites' proportions of patients near 2.5, below 2.3 and above 2.7 were consistent from year to year. A 10 percentage point increase in the proportion near 2.5 predicted a 3.8 percentage point increase in risk-adjusted TTR (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Proportion of patients with mean INR near 2.5 is a site-level 'signature' of care and an implicit measure of targeted INR. This proportion varies by site and is strongly associated with site-level TTR. Our study suggests that sites wishing to improve TTR, and thereby improve patient outcomes, should avoid the explicit or implicit pursuit of non-standard INR targets.

Patient characteristics associated with oral anticoagulation control: results of the Veterans AffaiRs Study to Improve Anticoagulation (VARIA).

BACKGROUND: In patients receiving oral anticoagulation, improved control can reduce adverse outcomes such as stroke and major hemorrhage. However, little is known about patient-level predictors of anticoagulation control. OBJECTIVES: To identify patient-level predictors of oral anticoagulation control in the outpatient setting. PATIENTS/METHODS: We studied 124,619 patients who received oral anticoagulation from the Veterans Health Administration from October 2006 to September 2008. The outcome was anticoagulation control, summarized using percentage of time in therapeutic International Normalized Ratio range (TTR). Data were divided into inception (first 6 months of therapy; 39,447 patients) and experienced (any time thereafter; 104,505 patients). Patient-level predictors of TTR were examined by multivariable regression. RESULTS: Mean TTRs were 48% for inception management and 61% for experienced management. During inception, important predictors of TTR included hospitalizations (the expected TTR was 7.3% lower for those with two or more hospitalizations than for the non-hospitalized), receipt of more medications (16 or more medications predicted a 4.3% lower than for patients with 0-7 medications), alcohol abuse (-4.6%), cancer (-3.1%), and bipolar disorder (-2.9%). During the experienced period, important predictors of TTR included hospitalizations (four or more hospitalizations predicted 9.4% lower TTR), more medications (16 or more medications predicted 5.1% lower TTR), alcohol abuse (-5.4%), female sex (- 2.9%), cancer (-2.7%), dementia (-2.6%), non-alcohol substance abuse (-2.4%), and chronic liver disease (-2.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Some patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy are more challenging to maintain within the therapeutic range than others. Our findings can be used to identify patients who require closer attention or innovative management strategies to maximize benefit and minimize harm from oral anticoagulation therapy.

The epidemiology and management of severe hypertension.

Hypertension guidelines stress that patients with severe hypertension (systolic blood pressure (BP) > or = 180 or diastolic BP > or = 110 mm Hg) require multiple drugs to achieve control and should have close follow-up to prevent adverse outcomes. However, little is known about the epidemiology or actual management of these patients. We retrospectively studied 59 207 veterans with hypertension. Patients were categorized based on their highest average BP over an 18-month period (1 July 1999 to 31 December 2000) as controlled (<140/90 mm Hg), mild (140-159/90-99 mm Hg), moderate (160-179/100-109 mm Hg) and severe hypertension. We examined severe hypertension prevalence, pattern, duration, associated patient characteristics, time to subsequent visit, percentage of visits with a medication increase, and final BP control and antihypertensive medication adequacy. Twenty-three per cent had > or = 1 visit with severe hypertension, 42% of whom had at least two such visits; median day with severe hypertension was 80 (range 1-548). These subjects were significantly older, more likely black, and with more comorbidities than other hypertension subjects. Medication increases occurred at 20% of visits with mild hypertension compared to 40% with severe hypertension; P<0.05). At study end, 76% of patients with severe hypertension remained uncontrolled; severe hypertension subjects with uncontrolled BP were less likely to be on adequate therapy than those with controlled BP (43.7 vs 45.4%). Among hypertensive veterans, severe hypertension episodes are common. Many subjects had relatively prolonged elevations, with older, sicker subjects at highest risk. Although, follow-up times are shorter and antihypertensive medication use greater in severe hypertension subjects, they are still not being managed aggressively enough. Interventions to improve providers' management of these high-risk patients are needed.

Warfarin dose management affects INR control.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about how patterns of warfarin dose management contribute to percentage time in the therapeutic International Normalized Ratio (INR) range (TTR). OBJECTIVES: To quantify the contribution of warfarin dose management to TTR and to define an optimal dose management strategy. PATIENTS/METHODS: We enrolled 3961 patients receiving warfarin from 94 community-based clinics. We derived and validated a model for the probability of a warfarin dose change under various conditions. For each patient, we computed an observed minus expected (O - E) score, comparing the number of dose changes predicted by our model to the number of changes observed. We examined the ability of O - E scores to predict TTR, and simulated various dose management strategies in the context of our model. RESULTS: Patients were observed for a mean of 15.2 months. Patients who deviated the least from the predicted number of dose changes achieved the best INR control (mean TTR 70.1% unadjusted); patients with greater deviations had lower TTR (65.8% and 62.0% for fewer and more dose changes respectively, Bonferroni-adjusted P < 0.05/3 for both comparisons). On average, clinicians in our study changed the dose when the INR was 1.8 or lower/3.2 or higher (mean TTR: 68%); optimal management would have been to change the dose when the INR was 1.7 or lower/3.3 or higher (predicted TTR: 74%). CONCLUSIONS: Our observational study suggests that INR control could be improved considerably by changing the warfarin dose only when the INR is 1.7 or lower/3.3 or higher. This should be confirmed in a randomized trial.

Trends in antiepileptic drug prescribing for older patients with new-onset epilepsy: 2000-2004.

BACKGROUND: Newer antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) have been shown to be equally efficacious as older seizure medications but with fewer neurotoxic and systemic side effects in the elderly. A growing body of clinical recommendations based on systematic literature review and expert opinion advocate the use of the newer agents and avoidance of phenobarbital and phenytoin. This study sought to determine if changes in practice occurred between 2000 and 2004--a time during which evidence and recommendations became increasingly available. METHODS: National data from the Veterans Health Administration (VA; inpatient, outpatient, pharmacy) from 1998 to 2004 and Medicare data (1999-2004) were used to identify patients 66 years and older with new-onset epilepsy. Initial AED was the first AED received from the VA. AEDs were categorized into four groups: phenobarbital, phenytoin, standard (carbamazepine, valproate), and new (gabapentin, lamotrigine, levetiracetam, oxcarbazepine, topiramate). RESULTS: We found a small reduction in use of phenytoin (70.6% to 66.1%) and phenobarbital (3.2% to 1.9%). Use of new AEDs increased significantly from 12.9% to 19.8%, due primarily to use of lamotrigine, levetiracetam, and topiramate. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a growing list of clinical recommendations and guidelines, phenytoin was the most commonly used antiepileptic drug, and there was little change in its use for elderly patients over 5 years. Research further exploring physician and health care system factors associated with change (or lack thereof) will provide better insight into the impact of clinical recommendations on practice.

What constitutes high quality of care for adults with epilepsy?

BACKGROUND: Providers are increasingly being held accountable for the quality of care provided. While quality indicators have been used to benchmark the quality of care for a number of other disease states, no such measures are available for evaluating the quality of care provided to adults with epilepsy. In order to assess and improve quality of care, it is critical to develop valid quality indicators. Our objective is to describe the development of quality indicators for evaluating care of adults with epilepsy. As most care is provided in primary and general neurology care, we focused our assessment of quality on care within primary care and general neurology clinics. METHODS: We reviewed existing national clinical guidelines and systematic reviews of the literature to develop an initial list of quality indicators; supplemented the list with indicators derived from patient focus groups; and convened a 10-member expert panel to rate the appropriateness, reliability, and necessity of each quality indicator. RESULTS: From the original 37 evidence-based and 10 patient-based quality indicators, the panel identified 24 evidence-based and 5 patient-based indicators as appropriate indicators of quality. Of these, the panel identified 9 that were not necessary for high quality care. CONCLUSION: There is, at best, a poor understanding of the quality of care provided for adults with epilepsy. These indicators, developed based on published evidence, expert opinion, and patient perceptions, provide a basis to assess and improve the quality of care for this population.

Evaluation of a risk-adjustment model for pressure ulcer development using the Minimum Data Set.

OBJECTIVE: To validate a previously derived risk-adjustment model for pressure ulcer development in a separate sample of nursing home residents and to determine the extent to which use of this model affects judgments of nursing home performance. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study using Minimum Data Set (MDS) data from 1998. SETTING: A large, for-profit, nursing home chain. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-nine thousand and forty observations were made on 13,457 nursing home residents who were without a pressure ulcer on an index assessment. MEASUREMENTS: We used logistic regression in our validation sample to calculate new coefficients for the 17 previously identified predictors of pressure ulcer development. Coefficients from this new sample were compared with those previously derived. Expected rates of pressure ulcer development were determined for 108 nursing homes. Unadjusted and risk-adjusted rates of pressure ulcer development from these homes were also calculated and outlier identification using these two approaches was compared. RESULTS: Predictors of pressure ulcer development in the derivation sample generally showed similar effects in the validation sample. The model c-statistic was also unchanged at 0.73, but it was not calibrated as well in the validation sample. On applying the model to the nursing homes, expected rates of ulcer development ranged from 1.1% to 3.2% (P <.001). The observed rates ranged from 0% to 12.1% (P <.001). There were 12 outliers using unadjusted rates and 15 using adjusted performance. Ten nursing homes were identified as outliers using both approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Our MDS risk-adjustment model for pressure ulcer development performed well in this new sample. Nursing homes differ significantly in their expected rates of pressure ulcer development. Outlier identification also differs depending on whether unadjusted or risk-adjusted performance is evaluated.

Deriving a risk-adjustment model for pressure ulcer development using the Minimum Data Set.

OBJECTIVE: To use the Minimum Data Set (MDS) to derive a risk-adjustment model for pressure ulcer development that may be used in assessing the quality of nursing home care. DESIGN: Perspective observational study using MDS data from 1997. SETTING: A large, for-profit, nursing home chain. PARTICIPANTS: Our unit of analysis was 39,649 observations made on 14,607 nursing home residents who were without a stage 2 or larger pressure ulcer on an index assessment. MEASUREMENTS: Pressure ulcer status was determined at an outcome assessment approximately 90 days after an index assessment. Potential predictors of pressure ulcer development were examined for bivariate associations, contributing to the development of a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: A stage 2 or larger pressure ulcer developed in 2.3% of the observations. Seventeen resident characteristics were found to be associated with pressure ulcer development. These included dependence in mobility and transferring, diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, urinary incontinence, lower body mass index, and end-stage disease. A risk-adjustment model based on these characteristics was well calibrated and able to discriminate among residents with different levels of risk for ulcer development (model c-statistic = 0.73). CONCLUSION: A clinically credible risk-adjustment model with good performance properties can be developed using the MDS. This model may be useful in profiling nursing homes on their rate of pressure ulcer development.

Evaluating diagnosis-based case-mix measures: how well do they apply to the VA population?

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis-based case-mix measures are increasingly used for provider profiling, resource allocation, and capitation rate setting. Measures developed in one setting may not adequately capture the disease burden in other settings. OBJECTIVES: To examine the feasibility of adapting two such measures, Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs) and Diagnostic Cost Groups (DCGs), to the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) population. RESEARCH DESIGN: A 60% random sample of veterans who used health care services during FY 1997 was obtained from VA inpatient and outpatient administrative databases. A split-sample technique was used to obtain a 40% sample (n = 1,046,803) for development and a 20% sample (n = 524,461) for validation. METHODS: Concurrent ACG and DCG risk adjustment models, using 1997 diagnoses and demographics to predict FY 1997 utilization (ambulatory provider encounters, and service days-the sum of a patient's inpatient and outpatient visit days), were fitted and cross-validated. RESULTS: Patients were classified into groupings that indicated a population with multiple psychiatric and medical diseases. Model R-squares explained between 6% and 32% of the variation in service utilization. Although reparameterized models did better in predicting utilization than models with external weights, none of the models was adequate in characterizing the entire population. For predicting service days, DCGs were superior to ACGs in most categories, whereas ACGs did better at discriminating among veterans who had the lowest utilization. CONCLUSIONS: Although "off-the-shelf" case-mix measures perform moderately well when applied to another setting, modifications may be required to accurately characterize a population's disease burden with respect to the resource needs of all patients.

Health care reorganization and quality of care: unintended effects on pressure ulcer prevention.

BACKGROUND: Health care reorganizations, with a change in focus from inpatient to outpatient care, are becoming increasingly frequent. Little is known regarding how reorganizations may affect risk-adjusted outcomes for those programs, usually inpatient, that lose resources as a result of the change in organizational focus. OBJECTIVES: To determine changes in risk-adjusted rates of pressure ulcer development over an 8-year period, the final 3 of which were characterized by a significant reorganization of the health care system. DESIGN: This was an observational study that used an existing database. SUBJECTS: Subjects were residents of Department of Veterans Affairs long-term care units between 1990 and 1997 who were without a pressure ulcer at an index assessment. MEASURES: The study examined risk-adjusted rates of pressure ulcer development, and proportions of new ulcers that were severe (stages 3 or 4) were calculated for successive 6-month periods. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 1994, risk-adjusted rates of pressure ulcer development declined significantly, by 27%. However, beginning in 1995, rates began to increase, and in 1997 they were similar to those in 1990. The proportion of new ulcers that were severe increased significantly over time (P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The reorganization of the VA that began in 1995, with its emphasis on outpatient care, was associated with an increase in rates of pressure ulcer development. This highlights the need to carefully monitor the quality of care in programs that may be losing resources as a result of the reorganization.

Are pressure ulcers preventable? A survey of experts.

OBJECTIVE: There is considerable debate regarding whether pressure ulcers can truly be prevented in nursing homes. New pressure ulcers are often taken as a sign of negligence that can lead to a lawsuit. This study sought to determine expert opinion regarding the preventability of pressure ulcers, the resources available to nursing homes for prevention, and the role of negligence lawsuits in pressure ulcer care. DESIGN: Survey mailed to a convenience sample of 98 experts in the field of pressure ulcer care. The survey contained 36 questions, most based on a 5-point Likert scale from "strongly agree"to"strongly disagree." Several questions asked respondents to rank items. RESULTS: Sixty-five of 92 surveys were completed (6 were returned but not completed) for a response rate of 71%. Sixty-two percent of respondents disagreed with the statement that all pressure ulcers are preventable. Only 5% said that nursing homes have adequate resources to prevent all pressure ulcers. Although most respondents disagreed that pressure ulcers are necessarily a sign of neglect and that nursing homes should be sued when a resident develops a pressure ulcer, 38% agreed with the concept that lawsuits are an appropriate way to stimulate improvement in nursing home care. CONCLUSION: The results of this survey demonstrated divergent expert opinion on whether pressure ulcers are preventable. The role of regulations and litigation in pressure ulcer prevention needs to be further defined.

Clinical practice guidelines in the nursing home.

Clinical practice guidelines are an important tool for improving quality of care. This study determined whether and how guidelines are being used in nursing homes. We surveyed staff at 36 Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) nursing homes. Employees were asked whether they were familiar with guidelines as well as whether 5 specific guidelines had been read, were available, and had been adopted. Among 1065 respondents (60% of those surveyed), 79% reported familiarity with guidelines. The proportion of staff at a facility reporting adoption was generally less than 50%. Those nursing homes in which a high percentage of the staff reported adoption of one guideline were more likely to have adopted other guidelines. However, staff were not more likely to report adoption of a specific guideline when the nurse manager stated that it was adopted. We conclude that staff at VA nursing homes are familiar with guidelines. Guideline adoption at individual nursing homes, however, is not a systematic process involving the entire staff.

Are we improving the quality of nursing home care: the case of pressure ulcers.

BACKGROUND: There are widespread concerns regarding the quality of nursing home care and whether care is improving. We evaluated a large provider of nursing home care to determine whether risk-adjusted rates of pressure ulcer development have changed. METHODS: We used the Minimum Data Set to study National HealthCare Corporation nursing homes from 1991 through 1995. Rates of pressure ulcer development were calculated for successive 6-month periods by determining the proportion of residents initially ulcer-free having a stage 2 or larger pressure ulcer on subsequent assessments. Rates were risk-adjusted for patient characteristics. The proportion of new ulcers that were deep (stages 3 or 4) were also calculated. RESULTS: We examined risk-adjusted rates of pressure ulcer development based on 144,379 observations of 30,510 residents at 107 nursing homes. The number of observations per 6-month period ranged from 11,041 to 15,805. Between 1991 and 1995, there was a significant (P<.05) rate decline of more than 25%. Additionally, the proportion of new ulcers that were stages 3 or 4 declined from 30 to 22% (P<.01). CONCLUSIONS: Nursing homes showed significant improvement in the quality of pressure ulcer preventive care from 1991 to 1995.

Pressure ulcer development in the VA: characteristics of nursing homes providing best care.

This study identifies structural characteristics of VA nursing homes that are associated with the best patient outcomes. We evaluated risk-adjusted rates of pressure ulcer development in VA nursing homes and related these rates to facility size, staffing patterns, teaching nursing home status, and rural versus urban locale. Higher rates of pressure ulcer development were seen among urban teaching nursing homes and among nursing homes associated with both larger and smaller VA hospitals. Staffing patterns had a complex association with pressure ulcer development, and smaller nursing home staffs were not clearly associated with higher rates. For multivariate modeling, only hospital size and staffing remained significant independent predictors of pressure ulcer development. These results emphasize that while structural characteristics of VA nursing homes can provide insights about care, improving the quality of care in this setting will require a much greater understanding of how nursing homes are organized to meet patient needs.

Functional status outcomes for assessment of quality in long-term care.

OBJECTIVE: Although decline in functional status has been recommended as a quality indicator in long-term care, studies examining its use provide no consensus on which definition of functional status outcome is the most appropriate to use for quality assessment. We examined whether different definitions of decline in functional status affect judgments of quality of care provided in Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) long-term care facilities. METHODS: Six measures of functional status outcome that are prominent in the literature were considered. The sample consisted of 15 409 individuals who resided in VA long-term care facilities at any time from 4/1/95 to 10/1/95. Activities of daily living variables were used to generate measures of functional status. Differences between residents' baseline and semi-annual assessments were considered and facility performance using the various definitions of functional status were described. RESULTS: The percentage of residents seen as declining in functional status ranged from 7.7% to 31.5%, depending upon the definition applied. The definition of functional status also affected rankings, z-scores, and 'outlier' status for facilities. CONCLUSION: Judgments of facility performance are sensitive to how outcome measures are defined. Careful selection of an appropriate definition of functional status outcome is needed when assessing quality in long-term care.

Geriatric syndromes as outcome measures of hospital care: can administrative data be used?

OBJECTIVE: To determine how often hospital administrative databases capture the occurrence of two common geriatric syndromes, pressure ulcers and incontinence. DESIGN: Retrospective comparison of a nursing home and hospital database. SETTING: Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: All patients between 1992 and 1996 discharged from VA acute medical care and admitted to a VA nursing home. MEASUREMENTS: The presence of incontinence or a pressure ulcer (stage 2 or larger) on admission to the nursing home was determined. Hospital discharge diagnoses were then reviewed to determine whether these conditions were recorded. The effect of ulcer stage, total number of discharge diagnoses, and temporal trends on the recording of these conditions in discharge diagnoses was also noted. RESULTS: There were 17,004 admissions to nursing homes from acute care in 1996; 12.7% had a pressure ulcer and 43.4% were incontinent. Among these patients with a pressure ulcer, the hospital discharge diagnosis listed an ulcer in 30.8% of cases, and incontinence was included correctly as a discharge diagnosis in 3.4%. While deeper pressure ulcers were more likely to be recorded than superficial ulcers (P < .01), nearly 50% of stage 4 ulcers were not listed among hospital discharge diagnoses. Patients with more discharge diagnoses were more likely to record both conditions correctly. From 1992 to 1996, small but significant (P = .001) improvements were noted in the correct recording of these geriatric syndromes as discharge diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: The occurrence of pressure ulcers and incontinence cannot be determined from hospital administrative databases and should not be used as outcomes when measuring quality of care among hospitalized patients.

Inadequate management of blood pressure in a hypertensive population.

BACKGROUND: Many patients with hypertension have inadequate control of their blood pressure. Improving the treatment of hypertension requires an understanding of the ways in which physicians manage this condition and a means of assessing the efficacy of this care. METHODS: We examined the care of 800 hypertensive men at five Department of Veterans Affairs sites in New England over a two-year period. Their mean (+/-SD) age was 65.5+/-9.1 years, and the average duration of hypertension was 12.6+/-5.3 years. We used recursive partitioning to assess the probability that antihypertensive therapy would be increased at a given clinic visit using several variables. We then used these predictions to define the intensity of treatment for each patient during the study period, and we examined the associations between the intensity of treatment and the degree of control of blood pressure. RESULTS: Approximately 40 percent of the patients had a blood pressure of > or =160/90 mm Hg despite an average of more than six hypertension-related visits per year. Increases in therapy occurred during 6.7 percent of visits. Characteristics associated with an increase in antihypertensive therapy included increased levels of both systolic and diastolic blood pressure at that visit (but not previous visits), a previous change in therapy, the presence of coronary artery disease, and a scheduled visit. Patients who had more intensive therapy had significantly (P<0.01) better control of blood pressure. During the two-year period, systolic blood pressure declined by 6.3 mm Hg among patients with the most intensive treatment, but increased by 4.8 mm Hg among the patients with the least intensive treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In a selected population of older men, blood pressure was poorly controlled in many. Those who received more intensive medical therapy had better control. Many physicians are not aggressive enough in their approach to hypertension.

Mortality associated with an influenza outbreak on a dementia care unit.

The purpose of this study was to describe an episode of increased mortality, whose cause was initially unknown. This retrospective cohort investigation was conducted on a dementia special care unit of a Department of Veterans Affairs facility, with more than 75% of residents clinically diagnosed with dementia of the Alzheimer type. One hundred five residents residing in the facility during February 1995 were included as subjects. A cluster of deaths occurred, triggering the investigation. Ultimately, 21 deaths (three times greater than any previous month in the past 5 years) occurred during the 1-month period. Measures included the presence of clinical influenza-like illness based on signs, serology, and autopsy results. Of the 105 residents, 45 (42.8%) met the clinical definition for influenza-like illness. Eight autopsies were performed, and the causes of death consisting of bronchopneumonia in seven and aspiration pneumonia in one were compatible with influenza. There were no differences among those who died from those who lived with regards to age, race, gender, clinical influenza-like illness, vaccination status, diagnosis of Alzheimer disease, or duration of dementia (all p > or = 0.2). However, those who died were at a higher risk of dying due to a greater number of coexisting conditions (p < 0.01). Also, overall the groups differed in Mini-Mental State Examination and Bedford Alzheimer Nursing Scale scores with those who died being more impaired (p < 0.01). Thus, the presentation of influenza-like illness can be subtle in onset, underappreciated in this population, and not recognized until excess mortality, which affects the most frail, is noted. Care providers need to be vigilant during the winter months for the presence of influenza.

Reducing random variation in reported rates of pressure ulcer development.

OBJECTIVES: The authors evaluated methods of reporting on rates of pressure ulcer development in long-term care to identify approaches that lead to more stable estimates of actual performance. METHODS: Performance measures for facilities that adequately adjust for both random variation and casemix should be relatively stable from one time period to the next. The authors calculated facility rates of pressure ulcer development over eight consecutive time periods and correlated measures over time using different reporting methods including z-scores, combining rates from several time periods, and limiting analyses to large facilities. Results were compared with a Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: Observed facility rates of pressure ulcer development varied considerably over time. The average correlation coefficient across seven time comparisons for observed rates was 0.17. Reporting performance as a z-score or limiting the analyses to large facilities increased the correlation. Combining two time periods was effective only when used with one of these other approaches. The correlation coefficient based on a simulation using only large facilities was 0.51. CONCLUSIONS: Random variation affects reported rates of pressure ulcer development. Using only large facilities and combining two time periods limits the effects of random variation and results in more stable estimates of performance. When describing performance, management must consider tradeoffs between having more accurate data, the frequency with which data are provided, and whether it is given to all providers.

Profiling outcomes of ambulatory care: casemix affects perceived performance.

OBJECTIVES: The authors explored the role of casemix adjustment when profiling outcomes of ambulatory care. METHODS: The authors reviewed the medical records of 656 patients with hypertension, diabetes, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) receiving care at one of three Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers. Outcomes included measures of physiological control for hypertension and diabetes, and of exacerbations for COPD. Predictors of poor outcomes, including physical examination findings, symptoms, and comorbidities, were identified and entered into regression models. Observed minus expected performance was described for each site, both before and after casemix adjustment. RESULTS: Risk-adjustment models were developed that were clinically plausible and had good performance properties. Differences existed among the three sites in the severity of the patients being cared for. For example, the percentage of patients expected to have poor blood pressure control were 35% at site 1, 37% at site 2, and 44% at site 3 (P < 0.01). Casemix-adjusted measures of performance were different from unadjusted measures. Sites that were outliers (P < 0.05) with one approach had observed performance no different from expected with another approach. CONCLUSIONS: Casemix adjustment models can be developed for outpatient medical conditions. Sites differ in the severity of patients they treat, and adjusting for these differences can alter judgments of site performance. Casemix adjustment is necessary when profiling outpatient medical conditions.