Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. METHODS: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. RESULTS: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ≈ .7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ≈ .8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ≈ .4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ≈ .1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28-100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0-7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. CONCLUSIONS: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts.

The South African Pollen Monitoring Network: Insights from 2 years of national aerospora sampling (2019-2021).

BACKGROUND: Pollen monitoring has been discontinuously undertaken in South Africa, a country with high biodiversity, a seasonal rainfall gradient, and nine biomes from arid to subtropical. The South African Pollen Monitoring Network was set up in 2019 to conduct the first long-term national aerospora monitoring across multiple biomes, providing weekly reports to allergy sufferers and healthcare providers. METHODS: Daily airborne pollen concentrations were measured from August 2019 to August 2021 in seven cities across South Africa. Updated pollen calendars were created for the major pollen types (>3%), the average Annual Pollen Index over 12 months was calculated, and the results were compared to available historical data. RESULTS: The main pollen types were from exotic vegetation. The most abundant taxa were Poaceae, Cupressaceae, Moraceae and Buddleja. The pollen season start, peak and end varied widely according to the biome and suite of pollen taxa. The main tree season started in the last week of August, peaked in September and ended in early December. Grass seasons followed rainfall patterns: September-January and January-April for summer and winter rainfall areas, respectively. Major urban centres, for example, Johannesburg and Pretoria in the same biome with similar rainfall, showed substantive differences in pollen taxa and abundance. Some major differences in pollen spectra were detected compared with historical data. However, we are cognisant that we are describing only 2 years of data that may be skewed by short-term weather patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in pollen spectra and concentrations were noted across biomes and between geographically close urban centres. Comparison with historical data suggests pollen spectra and seasons may be changing due to anthropogenic climate change and landscaping. These data stress the importance of regional and continuous pollen monitoring for informed care of pollinosis.

Global Climate Change and Pollen Aeroallergens: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective.

Climatic change will have an impact on production and release of pollen, with consequences for the duration and magnitude of aeroallergen seasonal exposure and allergic diseases. Evaluations of pollen aerobiology in the southern hemisphere have been limited by resourcing and the density of monitoring sites. This review emphasizes inconsistencies in pollen monitoring methods and metrics used globally. Research should consider unique southern hemisphere biodiversity, climate, plant distributions, standardization of pollen aerobiology, automation, and environmental integration. For both hemispheres, there is a clear need for better understanding of likely influences of climate change and comprehending their impact on pollen-related health outcomes.

Short term seasonal effects of airborne fungal spores on lung function in a panel study of schoolchildren residing in informal settlements of the Western Cape of South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The individual effects of biological constituents of particulate matter (PM) such as fungal spores, on lung function in children are not well known. This study investigated the seasonal short-term effect of daily variation in Alternaria and Cladosporium fungal spores on lung function in schoolchildren. METHODS: This panel study evaluated 313 schoolchildren in informal settlements of the Western Cape of South Africa, exposed to spores of two commonly encountered fungi, Alternaria and Cladosporium species. The children provided forced-expiratory volume in 1-s (FEV1) and peak-expiratory flow (PEF) measurements thrice daily for two consecutive school-weeks in summer and winter. Daily PM10 levels, from a stationary ambient air quality monitor and fungal spore levels using spore traps were measured in each study area throughout the year. The effects of Alternaria and Cladosporium spores, on lung function were analysed for lag periods up to five-days, adjusting-for PM10, other pollen exposures, study area, and other host and meteorological factors. Same-day exposure-response curves were computed for both fungal species. RESULTS: There was more variability in Alternaria spores level with noticeable peaks in summer. There were consistent lag-effects for Alternaria on PEF compared to Cladosporium, with the largest PEF deficit observed in winter (mean deficit: 13.78 L/min, 95%CI: 24.34 to -3.23 L/min) per 10spores/m3 increase in Alternaria spores on lag day-2. Although there were no observable lag-effects for Alternaria and Cladosporium on FEV1, same-day effects of Cladosporium spores on FEV1 was present across both seasons. Threshold effects of Alternaria on both PEF and FEV1 deficits were apparent at levels of 100 spores/m3, but could not be explored for Cladosporium beyond the levels observed during the study. CONCLUSION: The study provides evidence for the independent effects of daily exposure to ambient fungal spores of Alternaria and Cladosporium on lung function deficits, more especially in winter for PEF.

Molecular detection of airborne Emergomyces africanus, a thermally dimorphic fungal pathogen, in Cape Town, South Africa.

Emergomyces africanus is a thermally dimorphic fungus that causes a systemic mycosis in immunocompromised persons in South Africa. Infection is presumed to follow inhalation of airborne propagules. We developed a quantitative PCR protocol able to detect as few as 5 Es. africanus propagules per day. Samples were collected in Cape Town, South Africa over 50 weeks by a Burkard spore trap with an alternate orifice. We detected Es. africanus in air samples from 34 days (10%) distributed over 11 weeks. These results suggest environmental exposure to airborne Es. africanus propagules occurs more commonly in endemic areas than previously appreciated.

A prospective cohort study on ambient air pollution and respiratory morbidities including childhood asthma in adolescents from the western Cape Province: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence from existing literature that ambient air pollutant exposure in early childhood likely plays an important role in asthma exacerbation and other respiratory symptoms, with greater effect among asthmatic children. However, there is inconclusive evidence on the role of ambient air pollutant exposures in relation to increasing asthma prevalence as well as asthma induction in children. At the population level, little is known about the potential synergistic effects between pollen allergens and air pollutants since this type of association poses challenges in uncontrolled real life settings. In particular, data from sub-Sahara Africa is scarce and virtually absent among populations residing in informal residential settlements. METHODS/DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of 600 school children residing in four informal settlement areas with varying potential ambient air pollutant exposure levels in the Western Cape in South Africa is carried-out. The study has two follow-up periods of at least six-months apart including an embedded panel study in summer and winter. The exposure assessment component models temporal and spatial variability of air quality in the four study areas over the study duration using land-use regression modelling (LUR). Additionally, daily pollen levels (mould spores, tree, grass and weed pollen) in the study areas are recorded. In the panel study asthma symptoms and serial peak flow measurements is recorded three times daily to determine short-term serial airway changes in relation to varying ambient air quality and pollen over 10-days during winter and summer. The health outcome component of the cohort study include; the presence of asthma using a standardised ISAAC questionnaire, spirometry, fractional exhaled nitric-oxide (FeNO) and the presence of atopy (Phadiatop). DISCUSSION: This research applies state of the art exposure assessment approaches to characterize the effects of ambient air pollutants on childhood respiratory health, with a specific focus on asthma and markers of airway inflammation (FeNO) in South African informal settlement areas by considering also pollen counts and meteorological factors. The study will generate crucial data on air pollution and asthma in low income settings in sub-Sahara Africa that is lacking in the international literature.