ABSTRACT
BackgroundUp-to-date SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence estimates are important for informing public health planning, including priorities for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination programs. We sought to estimate infection- and vaccination-induced SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population approximately two years into the COVID-19 pandemic and approximately one year after rollout of the national COVID-19 vaccination program. MethodsWe conducted cross-sectional serosurveys within random, age-stratified samples of Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) and Nairobi Urban HDSS residents. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) and anti-nucleoprotein (anti-N) IgG were measured using validated in-house ELISAs. Target-specific Bayesian population-weighted seroprevalence was calculated overall, by sex and by age, with adjustment for test performance as appropriate. Anti-S IgG concentrations were estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard (IS) for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin and their reverse cumulative distributions plotted. ResultsBetween February and June 2022, 852 and 851 individuals within the Kilifi HDSS and the Nairobi Urban HDSS, respectively, were sampled. Only 11.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.0-13.3) of all Kilifi HDSS participants and 33.4% (95%CI 30.2-36.6) of all Nairobi Urban HDSS participants had received any doses of COVID-19 vaccine. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence was 69.1% (95% credible interval [CrI] 65.8-72.3) within the Kilifi HDSS and 88.5% (95%CrI 86.1-90.6) within the Nairobi Urban HDSS. Among COVID-unvaccinated residents of the Kilifi HDSS and Nairobi Urban HDSS, it was 66.7% (95%CrI 63.3-70.0) and 85.3% (95%CrI 82.1-88.2), respectively. Population-weighted, test-adjusted anti-N IgG seroprevalence within the Kilifi HDSS was 53.5% (95%CrI 46.5-61.1) and 65.5% (95%CrI 56.0-75.6) within the Nairobi Urban HDSS. The prevalence of anti-N antibodies was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated subgroups in both HDSS populations. Anti-S IgG concentrations were significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents (p< 0.001). ConclusionsApproximately, 7 in 10 Kilifi residents and 9 in 10 Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by May 2022 and June 2022, respectively. Given COVID-19 vaccination coverage, anti-S IgG seropositivity among COVID-unvaccinated individuals, and anti-N IgG seroprevalence, population-level anti-S IgG seroprevalence was predominantly derived from infection. Interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake should be targeted to individuals in rural Kenya who are at high risk of severe COVID-19.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundGiven the low levels of COVID-19 vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite high levels of natural SARS-CoV-2 exposures, strategies for extending the breadth and longevity of naturally acquired immunity are warranted. Designing such strategies will require a good understanding of natural immunity. MethodsWe used ELISA to measure whole-spike IgG and spike-receptor binding domain (RBD) total immunoglobulins (Igs) on 585 plasma samples collected longitudinally over five successive time points within six months of COVID-19 diagnosis in 309 COVID-19 patients. We measured antibody neutralizing potency against the wild-type (Wuhan) SARS-CoV-2 pseudo-virus in a subset of 51 patients over three successive time points. Binding and neutralizing antibody levels and potencies were then tested for correlations with COVID-19 severities, graded according to the National Institute of Health (NIH), USA criteria. ResultsRates of sero-conversion increased from Day 0 (day of PCR testing) to Day 180 (six months) (63.6% to 100 %) and (69.3 % to 97%) for anti-spike IgG and anti-spike-RBD binding Igs, respectively. Levels of these binding antibodies peaked at Day 28 (P<0.0001) and were subsequently maintained for six months without significant decay (p>0.99). Similarly, antibody neutralizing potencies peaked at Day 28 (p<0.0001) but had decreased by three-folds, six months after COVID-19 diagnosis (p<0.0001). Binding antibodies levels were highly correlated with neutralizing antibody potencies at all the time points analyzed (r>0.6, P<0.0001). Levels and potencies of binding and neutralizing antibodies increased with disease severity. ConclusionMost COVID-19 patients from Sub-Saharan Africa generate SARS-CoV-2 specific binding antibodies that remain stable during the first six months of infection. Although antibody binding levels and neutralizing potencies were directly correlated, the respective neutralizing antibodies decayed three-fold by the sixth month of COVID-19 diagnosis suggesting that they are short-lived, consistent with what has been observed elsewhere. Thus, just like for other populations, regular vaccination boosters will be required to broaden and sustain the high levels of predominantly naturally acquired anti-SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundMost of the studies that have informed the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya have relied on samples that are not representative of the general population. We conducted population-based serosurveys at three Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) to determine the cumulative incidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2. MethodsWe selected random age-stratified population-based samples at HDSSs in Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, in Kenya. Blood samples were collected from participants between 01 Dec 2020 and 27 May 2021. No participant had received a COVID-19 vaccine. We tested for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using ELISA. Locally-validated assay sensitivity and specificity were 93% (95% CI 88-96%) and 99% (95% CI 98-99.5%), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates using classical methods and Bayesian modelling to account for the sampling scheme and assay performance. ResultsWe recruited 2,559 individuals from the three HDSS sites, median age (IQR) 27 (10-78) years and 52% were female. Seroprevalence at all three sites rose steadily during the study period. In Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, seroprevalences (95% CI) at the beginning of the study were 36.0% (28.2-44.4%), 32.4% (23.1-42.4%), and 14.5% (9.1-21%), and respectively; at the end they were 42.0% (34.7-50.0%), 50.2% (39.7-61.1%), and 24.7% (17.5-32.6%), respectively. Seroprevalence was substantially lower among children (<16 years) than among adults at all three sites (p[≤]0.001). ConclusionBy May 2021 in three broadly representative populations of unvaccinated individuals in Kenya, seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 25-50%. There was wide variation in cumulative incidence by location and age.
