Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics.

We introduce a conceptual bridge between the previously unlinked fields of phylogenetics and mathematical spatial ecology, which enables the spatial parameters of an emerging epidemic to be directly estimated from sampled pathogen genome sequences. By using phylogenetic history to correct for spatial autocorrelation, we illustrate how a fundamental spatial variable, the diffusion coefficient, can be estimated using robust nonparametric statistics, and how heterogeneity in dispersal can be readily quantified. We apply this framework to the spread of the West Nile virus across North America, an important recent instance of spatial invasion by an emerging infectious disease. We demonstrate that the dispersal of West Nile virus is greater and far more variable than previously measured, such that its dissemination was critically determined by rare, long-range movements that are unlikely to be discerned during field observations. Our results indicate that, by ignoring this heterogeneity, previous models of the epidemic have substantially overestimated its basic reproductive number. More generally, our approach demonstrates that easily obtainable genetic data can be used to measure the spatial dynamics of natural populations that are otherwise difficult or costly to quantify.

Absence of reproducibly detectable low-level HIV viremia in highly exposed seronegative men and women.

OBJECTIVE: Transient HIV infections have been invoked to account for the cellular immune responses detected in highly virus-exposed individuals who have remained HIV-seronegative. We tested for very low levels of HIV RNA in 524 seronegative plasma samples from 311 highly exposed women and men from three longitudinal HIV cohorts. DESIGN: Two thousand and seventy-three transcription-mediated amplification (TMA) HIV RNA tests were performed for an average of 3.95 TMA assays per plasma sample. Quadruplicate TMA assays, analyzing a total of 2 ml of plasma, provided an estimated sensitivity of 3.5 HIV RNA copies/ml. RESULTS: Four samples from individuals who did not seroconvert within the following 6 months were positive for HIV RNA. For one sample, human polymorphism DNA analysis indicated a sample mix-up. Borderline HIV RNA detection signals were detected for the other three positive samples but further replicate TMA testing yielded no positive results. Nested PCR assays (n = 254) for HIV proviral DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from these three individuals were negative. CONCLUSION: Transient viremia was not reproducibly detected in highly HIV-exposed seronegative men and women. If transient infections do occur, plasma HIV RNA levels may remain below the detection limits of the sensitive assay used here, be of very short duration, or viral replication may be restricted to mucosal surfaces or their draining lymphoid tissues.

Transfusion transmission of highly prevalent commensal human viruses.

BACKGROUND: Anellovirus species Torque teno virus (TTV), Torque teno mini virus (TTMV), and Torque teno midi virus (TTMDV) and flavivirus GBV-C are highly prevalent and genetically diverse chronic human viral infections that have not yet been associated with disease. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: To determine if these commensal viruses are transmitted by blood transfusions, we genetically analyzed viral species in cryopreserved samples from blood donors and corresponding pre- and posttransfusion samples from recipients enrolled in the Transfusion-Transmitted Viruses Study cohort. RESULTS: All 24 individuals in 12 donor-recipient pairs were infected with TTV, while 16 were infected with TTMV, 15 with TTMDV, and four with GBV-C. None of the 12 informative cases of TTV transfusion or eight cases of TTMV transfusion, where the donor and recipient viruses could be genetically differentiated, resulted in detectable transmissions in which the donor viruses were detected in the recipient by direct sequencing of the polymerase chain reaction products. Of the five informative cases of TTMDV transfusion, including two cases of transfusion into TTMDV-negative recipients, one case of superinfection was seen with both the recipient and the donor viral variants detected in the transfusion recipient for at least 11 days posttransfusion. Three donor-recipient pairs were informative for GBV-C transmission with only one transfusion into a GBV-C-negative recipient resulting in a transiently detected infection. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission of the common commensal anelloviruses and GBV-C during transfusion was detected in 2 of 12 already infected or uninfected recipients. Underestimation of the true rate of viral transmission may be due to limitations in detecting donor viral variants present as minority variants in the already infected transfusion recipients.

Clearance of hepatitis C virus RNA from the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of blood donors who spontaneously or therapeutically control their plasma viremia.

UNLABELLED: We determined whether hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA could be detected associated with peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of seropositive blood donors who had spontaneously or therapeutically cleared their plasma viremia. Blood donor plasma viremia status was first determined with a highly sensitive transcription-mediated amplification (TMA) test performed in duplicate assays. PBMC from 69 aviremic and 56 viremic blood donors were then analyzed for the presence of HCV RNA with TMA adapted to detect viral RNA in PBMC and with a reverse transcription-nested polymerase chain reaction assay. PBMC-associated HCV RNA was detected in none of the 69 aviremic donors, including all 6 subjects with a sustained viral response following antiviral therapy. PBMC-associated HCV RNA was detected in 43 of the 56 viremic donors. The 13 viremic donors with no detectable PBMC-associated HCV RNA all had very low viral loads (6 positive only in 1 of 2 duplicate plasma TMA assays, 6 with viral loads below 100 HCV RNA copies/mL, and 1 with a viremia of 2700 HCV RNA copies/mL). The absence of detectable PBMC HCV RNA detection in all 69 aviremic donors reported here contrasts with prior studies, possibly as a result of the higher sensitivity of the TMA assay used to test for plasma viremia. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that PBMC are unlikely to serve as a long-lived reservoir of HCV in aviremic subjects.

Analysis of two human parvovirus PARV4 genotypes identified in human plasma for fractionation.

The presence of the novel parvovirus PARV4 and a related variant, PARV5, was recently demonstrated in pooled plasma used in the manufacture of blood and plasma-derived medicinal products. DNA sequence analysis of nearly full-length genomes of four PARV4 and two PARV5 strains from manufacturing plasma pools is now presented. Like PARV4, PARV5 encodes two non-overlapping open reading frames (ORF1 and ORF2), homologous to the non-structural and capsid proteins of other parvoviruses, respectively. A highly conserved region in ORF2 contains phospholipase A2 motifs involved in parvovirus infectivity. Hybridization of strand-specific probes to DNA extracted from high-titre, PARV4-positive plasma revealed that the positive and negative strands are packaged into PARV4 virions in similar quantities. This extended analysis of nearly full-length PARV4 and PARV5 sequences suggests that they are closely related genotypes and the use of a single virus name, PARV4, comprising genotypes 1 and 2 (previously termed PARV5) is proposed.

High levels of subgenomic HCV plasma RNA in immunosilent infections.

A genetic analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in rare blood donors who remained HCV seronegative despite long-term high-level viremia revealed the chronic presence of HCV genomes with large in frame deletions in their structural genes. Full-length HCV genomes were only detected as minority variants. In one immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infected donor the truncated HCV genome transiently decreased in frequency concomitant with delayed seroconversion and re-emerged following partial seroreversion. The long-term production of heavily truncated HCV genomes in vivo suggests that these viruses retained the necessary elements for RNA replication while the deleted structural functions necessary for their spread in vivo was provided in trans by wild-type helper virus in co-infected cells. The absence of immunological pressure and a high viral load may therefore promote the emergence of truncated HCV subgenomic replicons in vivo.

Frequent detection of the parvoviruses, PARV4 and PARV5, in plasma from blood donors and symptomatic individuals.

BACKGROUND: Plasma pools used in the manufacture of blood- and plasma-derived medicinal products are frequently contaminated with parvovirus B19. The presence of the novel human parvovirus PARV4 and a related variant PARV5 in manufacturing plasma pools was recently demonstrated. Another recently identified parvovirus, human bocavirus (HBoV), has been identified in respiratory samples from children with lower respiratory tract disease. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Recent and archived manufacturing plasma pools, as well as plasma from healthy blood donors (individual donations; pools of 16 donations) and febrile patients, were examined for the presence of PARV4 and PARV5 with conventional and TaqMan polymerase chain reaction assays. In addition, highly sensitive assays were used to examine the presence of HBoV DNA in manufacturing pools. RESULTS: Of 351 recent manufacturing plasma pool samples, 14 (4%) tested positive for the presence of PARV4 and PARV5. This frequency was elevated in the archived pools. Viral loads ranged from less than 100 up to 4 million copies per mL plasma, with some pools containing a mixture of both viruses. In individual plasma samples from healthy blood donors and febrile patients, the frequencies of detection were 2 and 6 percent, respectively. No HBoV sequences were identified in manufacturing plasma pools (n = 167). CONCLUSION: PARV4 and PARV5 are readily detected in manufacturing plasma pools, test pools (constructed from 16 donations), and individual donations derived from healthy blood donors. The prevalence of these viruses was increased in plasma samples from febrile patients. Despite the use of highly sensitive assays for HBoV, it was not possible to identify manufacturing plasma pools containing HBoV sequences.

Phylogenetic analysis of WNV in North American blood donors during the 2003-2004 epidemic seasons.

West Nile Virus (WNV) collected from 179 human blood donors in 25 US states and three Canadian provinces during the 2003 and 2004 epidemic seasons were genetically analyzed. The evolution of WNV during its Western spread was examined by envelope (E) gene sequencing of all 179 cases and full open reading frame sequencing of a subset of 20 WNV to determine if geographic and temporal segregation of distinct viral variants had occurred. Median joining network analysis was used to examine the genetic relationship between E gene variants and identified four large genetic clusters showing the gradual accumulation of mutations during the virus' western expansion. Two related WNV variants and their descendents, undetected in prior years, expanded in frequency. Apparent founder effects were observed in some regional outbreaks possibly due to local WNV colonization by a limited number of viruses. Amino acid mutations associated with newly expanding genetic variants reflect either selectively neutral mutational drift and/or mutations providing replicative advantages over the previously dominant forms of WNV.

Human immunodeficiency virus mutations during the first month of infection are preferentially found in known cytotoxic T-lymphocyte epitopes.

The full protein coding region of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) genomes were sequenced using plasma collected from nine African-Americans prior to seroconversion and 7 to 28 days later. HIV mutations emerged in seven of these subjects at a genomewide rate of 2% per year. The location of nonsynonymous (NS) HIV mutations within these subjects was compared to their potential HLA-A and B types restricted CTL epitopes reported in the Los Alamos National Laboratory HIV immunology database. A statistically significant (P < 0.005) number of the early NS mutations (13.5%) were found within previously reported CTL epitopes. A virus sequencing and reported CTL epitopes database analysis therefore support a model where a significant proportion of very early nonsynonymous HIV mutations are selected by CTL.

Number of CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell CDR3 clonotypes expanding during acute infection of macaques with simian immunodeficiency virus.

The total number of circulating CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells undergoing clonal expansions following SIV(mac251) infection was determined using a T-cell receptor Vbeta chain (TRBV) third complementarity-determining region (CDR3) DNA heteroduplex tracking assay (HTA). This assay measures the number of newly expanding T-cell clones but not their antigenic specificity. Fewer expanding CD4+ (3-23 per animal) than CD8+ (18-37 per animal) clonotypes were observed during the acute phase of SIV infection. CD8+ T-cell expansions peaked at 4 weeks postinfection (wpi) concomitant with early reductions in viremia. Expanding clone TRBV transcripts ranged in frequency from the limit of detection of 2% to 40% of their TRBV subfamily's transcripts. The number of expanding CD4+ or CD8+ clones correlated with neither peak, subsequent slope, nor steady-state viremia. CDR3 repertoires in CD8-expressing cells in different anatomical compartments were also analyzed. Repertoires were polyclonal in the thymus, oligoclonal in mesenteric lymph nodes, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), and spleen, and extremely oligoclonal in intra-epithelial lymphocytes (IEL) and lamina propria lymphocytes (LPL). The lack of correlation between the number of expanding T-cell clonotypes and viremia levels may reflect the highly variable selection pressure imposed on SIV by T-cell responses targeting different epitopes in outbred macaques.

Highly uneven distribution of tenofovir-selected simian immunodeficiency virus in different anatomical sites of rhesus macaques.

Antiviral tenofovir monotherapy was used to determine whether drug-selected simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) variants replaced their wild-type progenitors at the same rate in different tissues of six rhesus macaques. The relative frequencies of drug-resistant and wild-type genotypes were measured longitudinally in blood and in 23 lymphoid and nonlymphoid tissues collected at necropsy. The mutant/wild-type genotype ratio was measured using a heteroduplex tracking assay targeting tenofovir-selected SIV reverse transcriptase codons. After the initiation of tenofovir treatment in animals with high steady-state viremia levels, resistant genotypes emerged in the plasma within 1 to 8 weeks and in five of six cases reached frequencies of nearly 100% within 4 to 25 weeks. The appearance of tenofovir-resistant genotypes in peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) DNA was generally delayed by 1 to 2 weeks and in one case was completely absent. Necropsies performed 8 to 55 weeks after the initiation of tenofovir treatment showed the frequency of resistant SIV genotypes to be generally higher in tissue RNA than DNA fractions. The frequency of drug-resistant genotypes varied widely between anatomical sites, including different lymph nodes of the same animal. Except for the epidydimis, the tissues with the lowest rates of proviral replacement by tenofovir-resistant genotypes differed between animals. The highly uneven distribution of tenofovir-resistant genotypes in different tissues seen shortly after the initiation of tenofovir monotherapy may reflect differences in local antiviral drug selection pressures and/or the stochastic effect of small effective populations of drug-resistant variants randomly seeding different anatomical sites early in therapy.

Primary infection of a male plasma donor with divergent HIV variants from the same source followed by rapid fluctuations in their relative frequency and viral recombination.

The replication of two HIV-1 variants (>4.0% divergent in the env gene) was observed during primary infection of a frequent plasma donor. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that both HIV-1 variants likely originated from the same source. Heteroduplex tracking analysis of the env V3-V5 region indicated that one of these variant emerged in the plasma at the time of seroconversion, 15 days after the initial detection of HIV-1 RNA. Sequencing of the entire protein-coding region of plasma viruses from Days 2, 22, and 31 showed possible regions of recombination in the pol locus occurring within the first month of infection. The very rapid fluctuations of HIV-1 variant frequencies and their recombination during primary infection may reflect changes in their relative fitness in the face of developing immunological responses.

Estimate of the total number of CD8+ clonal expansions in healthy adults using a new DNA heteroduplex-tracking assay for CDR3 repertoire analysis.

A T-cell receptor heteroduplex-tracking assay (TCR-HTA) was developed to analyze the sequence diversity of the TCR beta-chain mRNA of each of the 24 T-cell receptor beta-chain variable region (TRBV). TCR-HTA allowed an estimation of the number of expanded CD8 T-cell clones whose distinct CDR3 domain mRNA made up 2% or more of the transcript of each TRBV subfamily. An average of 40 CD8+ clonal expansions (range 34-49) was detected in three healthy adults. Correct sampling of the complex mRNA transcript populations was documented by the reproducible generation of TCR-HTA patterns using independently generated PCR amplicons. The CDR3 sequence of expanded T-cell clones could be rapidly determined by direct sequencing of DNA heteroduplex bands. CD4+ and CD8+ clonal expansions were found predominantly although not exclusively in CD45RO+ CD62L- effector/memory cells and the majority of expanded T-cell clones were stable over a period of at least 6 months. Fewer CD4+ than CD8+ clonal expansions were detected in peripheral blood cells. By providing a high-resolution method for the detection of clonally expanded T-cell clones and by simplifying the pattern generated using traditional DNA heteroduplex analysis, TCR-HTA is shown to be a sensitive method for assessing levels of oligoclonality and changes in TRBV repertoires.