ABSTRACT
In response to a Commission request, EFSA has carried out a quantitative assessment of the risk of rabies introduction into the UK, Ireland, Sweden, and Malta due to the movement of pets incubating rabies at the time of movement. The risk that a pet is incubating rabies at the time of first vaccination is equal to the prevalence of rabies-incubating pets in the population of origin. Following induction of protective immunity by vaccination, animals already incubating rabies will still develop clinical disease as a function of time after vaccination (termed type A risk). A waiting period will reduce this risk. Afew animals may not be protected after single-shot primary vaccination. Such animals may become infected during the waiting period after vaccination. The risk of becoming infected after the first vaccination (termed type B risk) depends on the prevalence and efficiency of vaccination. Serological testing can be used to identify non-immune pets (depending on test specificity) and will therefore reduce this risk accordingly. The type A and B risks were modelled as a function of the waiting period after vaccination and fitted to a non-linear model incorporating vaccination efficiency and test specificity. The model can be used to quantify the risk of moving pets from rabies infected areas and also to investigate the effect of different control measures. In quantitative terms, the type A risk constitutes by far the major risk. Therefore, a waiting period (defined as the time spent between vaccination and pet movement to the destined country) is the major effective measure to mitigate the risk of rabies introduction due to an animal being infected before primo-vaccination. Serological testing will only add significantly to risk reduction when waiting periods exceed 100 days. Within the EU, the rabies prevalence in most countries is so low that the risk can be considered negligible. However, for some countries the risk is non-negligible.
