Compulsorily notifiable diseases and health problems and socio-environmental conditions: an ecological study, Espírito Santo, Brazil, 2011-2015. / Doenças e agravos de notificação compulsória e condições socioambientais: estudo ecológico, Espírito Santo, 2011-2015.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze association between climatic-environmental conditions and occurrence of compulsorily notifiable diseases and health problems, in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, 2011-2015. METHODS: This was an ecological study of municipality clusters calculated based on cases confirmed on the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System for the period 2011-2015. RESULTS: Notifications were more frequent among females (51.1%); people of brown race/skin color (31.7%); in the 20-49 year age group (48.1%) and in the Metropolitan Health Region (60.3%). The factors associated with health problems were ambulatory care sensitive conditions (p-value<0.001); education development index (p-value<0.001); temperature (p-value=0.019) and degree of urbanization (p-value=0.004). Diseases were associated with population density (p-value<0.001); temperature (p-value<0.001), humidity (p-value<0.001) and altitude (p-value=0.005). CONCLUSION: Health problems were positively associated with ambulatory care sensitive conditions, the education development index and temperature; but negatively associated with degree of urbanization. Diseases were positively associated with the factors mentioned.

Diseases and disorders reportable and socio-environmental conditions: ecological study, Espírito Santo, Brazil, 2011-2015 / Enfermedades y trastornos notificables y condiciones socioambientales: estudio ecológico, Espírito Santo, Brasil, 2011-2015 / Doenças e agravos de notificação compulsória e condições socioambientais: estudo ecológico, Espírito Santo, 2011-2015

Objective: To analyze the association of climatic-environmental conditions and the occurrence of diseases and disorders reportable, in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, 2011-2015. Methods: Aggregated municipal ecological studies, calculated from confirmed cases in the Notification Information System for the period 2011-2015. Results: Notifications were more frequent among women (51.1%); race/brown color (31.7%); age group 20-49 years (48.1%) and metropolitan health region (60.3%). The factors associated with disorders were internations sensitive to primary care (p-value<0.001); education development index (p-value<0.001); temperature (p-value=0.019) and degree of urbanization (p-value=0.004). Diseases were associated with population density (p-value<0.001); temperature (p-value<0.001), humidity (p-value<0.001) and altitude (p-value=0.005). Conclusion: The disorders were negatively associated with conditions sensitive to primary care, with the education development index and positively with the temperature and the degree of urbanization. Diseases were positively associated with the factors mentioned.

Objetivo: Analisar a associação das condições climático-ambientais e a ocorrência das doenças e agravos de notificação compulsória no estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico dos agregados municipais calculados a partir de casos confirmados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação para o período 2011-2015. Resultados: As notificações foram mais frequentes no sexo feminino (51,1%), raça/cor da pele parda (31,7%), faixa etária de 20-49 anos (48,1%) e região metropolitana de saúde (60,3%). Os fatores associados aos agravos foram as condições sensíveis à Atenção Básica (p-valor<0,001), o índice de desenvolvimento de educação (p-valor<0,001), a temperatura (p-valor=0,019) e o grau de urbanização (p-valor=0,004). As doenças estiveram associadas a densidade populacional (p-valor<0,001), temperatura (p-valor<0,001), umidade (p-valor<0,001) e altitude (p-valor=0,005). Conclusão: Os agravos associaram-se positivamente às condições sensíveis à Atenção Básica, índice de desenvolvimento da educação e temperatura; e negativamente ao grau de urbanização. As doenças associaram-se positivamente aos fatores citados.

Doenças e agravos de notificação compulsória e condições socioambientais: estudo ecológico, Espírito Santo, 2011-2015 / Enfermedades y trastornos de notificación obligatoria y condiciones socioambientales: estudio ecológico, Espírito Santo, Brasil, 2011-2015 / Compulsorily notifiable diseases and health problems and socio-environmental conditions: an ecological study, Espírito Santo, Brazil, 2011-2015

Objetivo: Analisar a associação das condições climático-ambientais e a ocorrência das doenças e agravos de notificação compulsória no estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudo ecológico dos agregados municipais calculados a partir de casos confirmados no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Sinan) para o período 2011-2015. Resultados: As notificações foram mais frequentes no sexo feminino (51,1%), raça/cor da pele parda (31,7%), faixa etária de 20-49 anos (48,1%) e região metropolitana de saúde (60,3%). Os fatores associados aos agravos foram as condições sensíveis à Atenção Básica (p-valor<0,001), o índice de desenvolvimento de educação (p-valor<0,001), a temperatura (p-valor=0,019) e o grau de urbanização (p-valor=0,004). As doenças estiveram associadas a densidade populacional (p-valor<0,001), temperatura (p-valor<0,001), umidade (p-valor<0,001) e altitude (p-valor=0,005). Conclusão: Os agravos associaram-se positivamente às condições sensíveis à Atenção Básica, índice de desenvolvimento da educação e temperatura; e negativamente ao grau de urbanização. As doenças associaram-se positivamente aos fatores citados.

Objetivo: Analizar la asociación de las condiciones climáticas-ambientales y la ocurrencia de enfermedades y trastornos de notificación obligatoria en el estado de Espírito Santo, Brasil. Métodos: Estudio ecológico de los agregados municipales, a partir de casos confirmados en el Sistema de Información de Agravamientos de Notificación, período 2011-2015. Resultados: Las notificaciones fueron más frecuentes en el sexo femenino (51,1%); raza/ color de piel parda (31,7%); de 20-49 años (48,1%) y región metropolitana de salud (60,3%). Los factores asociados a los agravamientos fueron sensibles a la atención primaria (p<0,001); los índices de desarrollo educativo (p<0,001); la temperatura (p=0,019) y el grado de urbanización (p=0,004). Los agravamientos estuvieron asociados con la densidad de población (p<0,001); la temperatura (p<0,001), la humedad (p <0,001) y la altitud (p=0,005). Conclusión: Los agravamientos se asociaron positivamente con las condiciones sensibles a la atención primaria, con el índice de desarrollo educativo y la temperatura; y negativamente con el grado de urbanización. Las enfermedades se asociaron positivamente con los factores mencionados.

Objective: To analyze association between climatic-environmental conditions and occurrence of compulsorily notifiable diseases and health problems, in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, 2011-2015. Methods: This was an ecological study of municipality clusters calculated based on cases confirmed on the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System for the period 2011-2015. Results: Notifications were more frequent among females (51.1%); people of brown race/skin color (31.7%); in the 20-49 year age group (48.1%) and in the Metropolitan Health Region (60.3%). The factors associated with health problems were ambulatory care sensitive conditions (p-value<0.001); education development index (p-value<0.001); temperature (p-value=0.019) and degree of urbanization (p-value=0.004). Diseases were associated with population density (p-value<0.001); temperature (p-value<0.001), humidity (p-value<0.001) and altitude (p-value=0.005). Conclusion: Health problems were positively associated with ambulatory care sensitive conditions, the education development index and temperature; but negatively associated with degree of urbanization. Diseases were positively associated with the factors mentioned.

Analysis of the spatial distribution of cases of Zika virus infection and congenital Zika virus syndrome in a state in the southeastern region of Brazil: Sociodemographic factors and implications for public health.

OBJECTIVE: To perform spatial distribution analysis of reported cases of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, by neighborhood, and relate the results to sociodemographic indicators and implications for the health process. METHODS: An ecological study using data from the 2016 National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, epidemiological records, and information on neighborhoods of families confirmed with CZS from qualitative field research. RESULTS: Sociodemographic indicators were analyzed in three distinct groups: general population with Zika virus, pregnant women with Zika virus, and cases of CZS visited. For the three groups, average literacy rates were 71.1%, 71.0%, and 68.3%; the average income per minimum wage was 1.4, 1.1, and 1.4; sanitary sewage coverage was 75.6%, 76.1%, and 71.4%; garbage coverage was 90.8%, 91.2%, and 89.2%; and water supply was 93.8%, 94.1% and 93.8%, respectively. Socioeconomic indicators showed no significant differences between groups, although they were above the national average. A nonsignificant variation of 68.3%-71.1% was seen in the average literacy level above 15 years of age. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic and demographic indicators of cases of Zika virus infection and CZS may indicate that the outbreak had different impacts according to class, social group, or gender, reflecting the persistence and social geography of inequality in Brazil.

Profile of tuberculosis mortality in Brazil, 2001-2011 / Perfil da mortalidade por tuberculose no Brasil, 2001-2011 / Perfil de la mortalidad por tuberculosis en Brasil, 2001-2011

Rationale: In the health-disease process of tuberculosis (TB), mortality is one of the health indicators that most reflects the social link with the biological aspect. Death from TB is a sentinel event because it is preventable and indicates a failure of the social network and the health system. Objectives: To describe the sociodemographic and operational characteristics of patients who died of TB and the temporal distribution of the TB mortality rate in Brazil. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, quantitative study performed from the database of the Mortality Information System (Portuguese acronym: SIM), in which all deaths with TB as the main cause registered from 2001 to 2011 were considered. Data analyzed through descriptive statistics. Results: During the study period, 53,747 deaths were recorded with TB as the basic cause. There was a higher percentage of cases of male sex (n = 39,597; 73.6%), mixed race (n=21,697; 40.3%), single marital status (n=23,518; 43.8%), schooling of up to eight years (n=19,443; 36.2%). A higher number of deaths occurred at the hospital (n=43,028; 80.1%) and 19,712 cases (36.7%) received medical assistance before death. The annual crude mortality rate decreased during the study period, ranging from 3.2 to 2.4 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants. Conclusion: The results show the need for strategies differentiated by sex, age and education at the local level in TB control programs, as well as for planning health promotion and prevention actions available to populations living in these areas.(AU)

Justificativa: No processo saúde-doença da tuberculose (TB), a mortalidade constitui um dos indicadores de saúde que mais traduz o enlace social com o biológico. O óbito por TB é considerado um evento sentinela por ser evitável, indicativo de falha da rede social e do sistema de saúde. Objetivos: Descrever as características sociodemográficas e operacionais dos pacientes que evoluíram a óbito por TB e a distribuição temporal da taxa de mortalidade por TB no Brasil. Métodos: Estudo descritivo do tipo transversal e abordagem quantitativa, realizado a partir do banco de dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM), na qual foram considerados todos os óbitos que apresentaram a TB como causa básica, registrados de 2001 a 2011, analisados por meio da estatística descritiva. Resultados: No período do estudo, foram registrados 53.747 óbitos com TB como causa básica, sendo maior percentual dos casos do sexo masculino (n= 39.597; 73,6%), raça/cor parda (n= 21.697; 40,3%), estado civil solteiro (n= 23.518; 43,8%), escolaridade até 8 anos de estudo (n=19.443; 36,2%), maior ocorrência dos óbitos no hospital (n= 43.028; 80,1%) e 19.712 casos (36,7%) receberam assistência médica antes do óbito. As taxas brutas anuais de mortalidade apresentaram redução no período de estudo, variando de 3,2 a 2,4 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes. Conclusão: Os resultados evidenciam a necessidade de propor estratégias diferenciadas por sexo, idade e escolaridade em nível local nos programas de controle de TB, assim como planejamento de ações de promoção e prevenção da saúde disponíveis às populações residentes nessas áreas.(AU)

Justificación: En el proceso salud-enfermedad de la tuberculosis (TB), la mortalidad es uno de los indicadores de salud que más refleja el vínculo social con el biológico. La muerte por TB se considera un evento centinela porque es prevenible, lo que indica un fallo de la red social y el sistema de salud. Objetivos: Describir las características sociodemográficas y operativas de los pacientes fallecidos por TB y la distribución temporal de la tasa de mortalidad por TB en Brasil. Métodos: un estudio descriptivo, de corte transversal y cuantitativo, realizado a partir de la base de datos del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad (SIM), en el cual se consideraron todas las muertes que presentaron TB como causa básica, registradas desde 2001 hasta 2011. Los datos fueron analizados mediante estadística descriptiva. Resultados: Durante el período de estudio, se registraron 53,747 muertes con TB como la causa básica. Hubo un mayor porcentaje de casos de sexo masculino (n=39,597; 73.6%), raza mixta (n=21,697; 40.3%), estado civil soltero (n=23,518; 43.8%), escolaridad de hasta ocho años (n=19,443; 36.2%). Un mayor número de muertes ocurrieron en el hospital (n=43,028; 80,1%) y 19,712 casos (36.7%) recibieron asistencia médica antes de la muerte. La tasa de mortalidad bruta anual disminuyó durante el período de estudio, oscilando desde 3.2 a 2.4 muertes por cada 100 mil habitantes. Conclusión: Los resultados muestran la necesidad de estrategias diferenciadas por sexo, edad y educación a nivel local en los programas de control de la TB, así como la planificación de acciones de promoción y prevención de la salud disponibles para las poblaciones que viven en estas áreas.(AU)

[Variations in the detection of congenital Zika syndrome associated with changes in protocolsVariación de la detección del síndrome congénito por el virus del Zika en función de los cambios de los protocolos]. / Variação na detecção da síndrome congênita do Zika em função de alterações em protocolos.

In 2015, Brazil faced a Zika virus epidemic that spread to other countries in the world. As a result, recommendations regarding reporting criteria for congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) were issued in the form of protocols. The frequent changes in these recommendations may have affected clinical management and the access to post-diagnostic support by children who were affected by CZS, but who ended up not being identified. In the present study, 39 cases of CZS reported in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 2015 to 2016 were re-classified in terms of diagnosis using the current protocol, which is different from the protocol used in 2015. According to this re-classification, only eight out of 36 cases would be confirmed, based on the criterion of two or more signs or symptoms of CZS with or without microcephaly plus positive serologic results. Also, considering the decrease in the head circumference cut-off point defining microcephaly, 17 cases would no longer meet the definition for this condition. Even though the current protocol does not rely on head circumference alone for CZS reporting and confirmation, it should be noted that this is still the main sign considered by health care teams, and therefore the decrease in the cut-off point might have compromised early CZS detection. A review of "ruled out" cases would be advisable in moments of protocol transition to determine whether these cases have been correctly classified.

En el 2015, Brasil enfrentó una epidemia de infección por el virus del Zika que se propagó por varios países del mundo. Posteriormente, se divulgaron recomendaciones acerca de los criterios de notificación de casos del síndrome congénito por el virus del Zika (SCZ) por medio de protocolos. Los cambios frecuentes de esas recomendaciones podrían haber afectado el manejo clínico y el acceso al apoyo posterior al diagnóstico de los niños afectados, pero no identificados. En el presente estudio, se reclasificó el diagnóstico de 39 casos del SCZ notificados en el estado de Espírito Santo en el período 2015-2016, de acuerdo con el protocolo vigente en la actualidad, que es distinto del que regía en el 2015. Por causa de la reclasificación, se confirmaron únicamente ocho de los 36 casos, con observancia del criterio de dos o más signos o síntomas del SCZ acompañados o no de microcefalia y con confirmación serológica. Además, por la disminución del perímetro cefálico que define la microcefalia, 17 casos no correspondieron a esa afección. A pesar de que en el protocolo vigente no se utiliza solamente el perímetro cefálico como criterio para la notificación y confirmación del SCZ, cabe resaltar que este hallazgo es, con todo, la mayor señal para los equipos de salud, puesto que indica un riesgo de falta de detección temprana del SCZ. Convendría examinar los casos "descartados" en el momento de la transición entre protocolos, con el fin de determinar si se clasificaron correctamente.

Variação na detecção da síndrome congênita do Zika em função de alterações em protocolos

[RESUMO]. Em 2015, o Brasil enfrentou uma epidemia de infecção pelo vírus Zika que se propagou por países do mundo. Posteriormente, recomendações acerca dos critérios de notificação de casos de síndrome congênita do Zika (SCZ) foram divulgadas através de protocolos. As mudanças frequentes nessas recomendações podem ter afetado o gerenciamento clínico e o acesso a suporte pós-diagnóstico por crianças afetadas mas não identificadas. No presente estudo, 39 casos de SCZ notificados no estado do Espírito Santo no período de 2015 a 2016 foram reclassificados quanto ao seu diagnóstico de acordo com o protocolo atualmente vigente, diferente daquele que vigorava em 2015. Pela reclassificação, apenas oito dos 36 casos seriam confirmados, respeitando o critério de dois ou mais sinais ou sintomas da SCZ com ou sem microcefalia e confirmação sorológica. Ainda, pela diminuição no perímetro cefálico que define microcefalia, 17 casos passaram a não se enquadrar nessa condição. Apesar de o protocolo vigente não utilizar somente o perímetro cefálico como critério para notificação e confirmação da SCZ, cabe ressaltar que este achado ainda é o maior sinalizador para as equipes de saúde, indicando um risco da não detecção precoce da SCZ. Seria prudente uma revisão dos casos “descartados” no momento de transição entre protocolos, a fim de avaliar se foram corretamente classificados.

[ABSTRACT]. In 2015, Brazil faced a Zika virus epidemic that spread to other countries in the world. As a result, recommendations regarding reporting criteria for congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) were issued in the form of protocols. The frequent changes in these recommendations may have affected clinical management and the access to post-diagnostic support by children who were affected by CZS, but who ended up not being identified. In the present study, 39 cases of CZS reported in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 2015 to 2016 were re-classified in terms of diagnosis using the current protocol, which is different from the protocol used in 2015. According to this re-classification, only eight out of 36 cases would be confirmed, based on the criterion of two or more signs or symptoms of CZS with or without microcephaly plus positive serologic results. Also, considering the decrease in the head circumference cut-off point defining microcephaly, 17 cases would no longer meet the definition for this condition. Even though the current protocol does not rely on head circumference alone for CZS reporting and confirmation, it should be noted that this is still the main sign considered by health care teams, and therefore the decrease in the cut-off point might have compromised early CZS detection. A review of “ruled out” cases would be advisable in moments of protocol transition to determine whether these cases have been correctly classified.

[RESUMEN]. En el 2015, Brasil enfrentó una epidemia de infección por el virus del Zika que se propagó por varios países del mundo. Posteriormente, se divulgaron recomendaciones acerca de los criterios de notificación de casos del síndrome congénito por el virus del Zika (SCZ) por medio de protocolos. Los cambios frecuentes de esas recomendaciones podrían haber afectado el manejo clínico y el acceso al apoyo posterior al diagnóstico de los niños afectados, pero no identificados. En el presente estudio, se reclasificó el diagnóstico de 39 casos del SCZ notificados en el estado de Espírito Santo en el período 2015-2016, de acuerdo con el protocolo vigente en la actualidad, que es distinto del que regía en el 2015. Por causa de la reclasificación, se confirmaron únicamente ocho de los 36 casos, con observancia del criterio de dos o más signos o síntomas del SCZ acompañados o no de microcefalia y con confirmación serológica. Además, por la disminución del perímetro cefálico que define la microcefalia, 17 casos no correspondieron a esa afección. A pesar de que en el protocolo vigente no se utiliza solamente el perímetro cefálico como criterio para la notificación y confirmación del SCZ, cabe resaltar que este hallazgo es, con todo, la mayor señal para los equipos de salud, puesto que indica un riesgo de falta de detección temprana del SCZ. Convendría examinar los casos “descartados” en el momento de la transición entre protocolos, con el fin de determinar si se clasificaron correctamente.

Introducing risk inequality metrics in tuberculosis policy development.

Global stakeholders including the World Health Organization rely on predictive models for developing strategies and setting targets for tuberculosis care and control programs. Failure to account for variation in individual risk leads to substantial biases that impair data interpretation and policy decisions. Anticipated impediments to estimating heterogeneity for each parameter are discouraging despite considerable technical progress in recent years. Here we identify acquisition of infection as the single process where heterogeneity most fundamentally impacts model outputs, due to selection imposed by dynamic forces of infection. We introduce concrete metrics of risk inequality, demonstrate their utility in mathematical models, and pack the information into a risk inequality coefficient (RIC) which can be calculated and reported by national tuberculosis programs for use in policy development and modeling.

Tuberculosis in Brazil and cash transfer programs: A longitudinal database study of the effect of cash transfer on cure rates.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis incidence is disproportionately high among people in poverty. Cash transfer programs have become an important strategy in Brazil fight inequalities as part of comprehensive poverty alleviation policies. This study was aimed at assessing the effect of being a beneficiary of a governmental cash transfer program on tuberculosis (TB) treatment cure rates. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal database study including people ≥18 years old with confirmed incident TB in Brazil in 2015. We treated missing data with multiple imputation. Poisson regression models with robust variance were carried out to assess the effect of TB determinants on cure rates. The average effect of being beneficiary of cash transfer was estimated by propensity-score matching. RESULTS: In 2015, 25,084 women and men diagnosed as new tuberculosis case, of whom 1,714 (6.8%) were beneficiaries of a national cash transfer. Among the total population with pulmonary tuberculosis several determinants were associated with cure rates. However, among the cash transfer group, this association was vanished in males, blacks, region of residence, and people not deprived of their freedom and who smoke tobacco. The average treatment effect of cash transfers on TB cure rates, based on propensity score matching, found that being beneficiary of cash transfer improved TB cure rates by 8% [Coefficient 0.08 (95% confidence interval 0.06-0.11) in subjects with pulmonary TB]. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that, in Brazil, the effect of cash transfer on the outcome of TB treatment may be achieved by the indirect effect of other determinants. Also, these results suggest the direct effect of being beneficiary of cash transfer on improving TB cure rates.

Social determinants of tuberculosis via a zero-inflated model in small areas of a city in Southeastern Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to analyze social factors involved in the spatial distribution and under-reporting of tuberculosis (TB) in the city of Vitória, Espírito Santo State, Brazil. METHODS: This was an ecological study of the reported cases of TB between 2009 and 2011, according to census tracts. The outcome was TB incidence for the study period and the variables of exposure were proportions of literacy, inhabitants with an income of up to half the minimum monthly wage (MMW), and inhabitants associated with sewer mains or with access to safe drinking water. We used a zero-inflated process, zero-inflated negative binomial regression (ZINB), and selected an explanatory model based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). RESULTS: A total of 588 cases of tuberculosis were reported in Vitória during the study period, distributed among 223 census tracts (38.6%), with 354 (61.4%) tracts presenting zero cases. In the ZINB model, the mean value of p i was 0.93, indicating that there is a 93% chance that an observed false zero could be due to sub-notification. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to prioritize areas exhibiting determinants that influence the occurrence of TB in the municipality of Vitória. The zero-inflated model can be useful to the public health sector since it identifies the percentage of false zeros, generating an estimate of the real epidemiological condition of TB in Vitória.

Social determinants of tuberculosis via a zero-inflated model in small areas of a city in Southeastern Brazil

Abstract INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to analyze social factors involved in the spatial distribution and under-reporting of tuberculosis (TB) in the city of Vitória, Espírito Santo State, Brazil. METHODS: This was an ecological study of the reported cases of TB between 2009 and 2011, according to census tracts. The outcome was TB incidence for the study period and the variables of exposure were proportions of literacy, inhabitants with an income of up to half the minimum monthly wage (MMW), and inhabitants associated with sewer mains or with access to safe drinking water. We used a zero-inflated process, zero-inflated negative binomial regression (ZINB), and selected an explanatory model based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). RESULTS: A total of 588 cases of tuberculosis were reported in Vitória during the study period, distributed among 223 census tracts (38.6%), with 354 (61.4%) tracts presenting zero cases. In the ZINB model, the mean value of p i was 0.93, indicating that there is a 93% chance that an observed false zero could be due to sub-notification. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to prioritize areas exhibiting determinants that influence the occurrence of TB in the municipality of Vitória. The zero-inflated model can be useful to the public health sector since it identifies the percentage of false zeros, generating an estimate of the real epidemiological condition of TB in Vitória.

Treatment outcomes of MDR-tuberculosis patients in Brazil: a retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a threat for the global TB epidemic control. Despite existing evidence that individualized treatment of MDR-TB is superior to standardized regimens, the latter are recommended in Brazil, mainly because drug-susceptibility tests (DST) are often restricted to first-line drugs in public laboratories. We compared treatment outcomes of MDR-TB patients using standardized versus individualized regimens in Brazil, a high TB-burden, low resistance setting. METHODS: The 2007-2013 cohort of the national electronic database (SITE-TB), which records all special treatments including drug-resistance, was analysed. Patients classified as MDR-TB in SITE-TB were eligible. Treatment outcomes were classified as successful (cure/treatment completed) or unsuccessful (failure/relapse/death/loss to follow-up). The odds for successful treatment according to type of regimen were controlled for demographic and clinical variables. RESULTS: Out of 4029 registered patients, we included 1972 recorded from 2010 to 2012, who had more complete outcome data. The overall success proportion was 60%. Success was more likely in non-HIV patients, sputum-negative at baseline, with unilateral disease and without prior DR-TB. Adjusted for these variables, those receiving standardized regimens had 2.7-fold odds of success compared to those receiving individualized treatments when failure/relapse were considered, and 1.4-fold odds of success when death was included as an unsuccessful outcome. When loss to follow-up was added, no difference between types of treatment was observed. Patients who used levofloxacin instead of ofloxacin had 1.5-fold odds of success. CONCLUSION: In this large cohort of MDR-TB patients with a low proportion of successful outcomes, standardized regimens had superior efficacy than individualized regimens, when adjusted for relevant variables. In addition to the limitations of any retrospective observational study, database quality hampered the analyses. Also, decision on the use of standard or individualized regimens was possibly not random, and may have introduced bias. Efforts were made to reduce classification bias and confounding. Until higher-quality evidence is produced, and DST becomes widely available in the country, our findings support the Brazilian recommendation for the use of standardized instead of individualized regimens for MDR-TB, preferably containing levofloxacin. Better quality surveillance data and DST availability across the country are necessary to improve MDR-TB control in Brazil.

Genotypic and Spatial Analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission in a High-Incidence Urban Setting.

BACKGROUND: Genotyping Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates allows study of dynamics of tuberculosis transmission, while geoprocessing allows spatial analysis of clinical and epidemiological data. Here, genotyping data and spatial analysis were combined to characterize tuberculosis transmission in Vitória, Brazil, to identify distinct neighborhoods and risk factors associated with recent tuberculosis transmission. METHODS: From 2003 to 2007, 503 isolates were genotyped by IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and spoligotyping. The analysis included kernel density estimation, K-function analysis, and a t test distance analysis. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates belonging to identical RFLP patterns (clusters) were considered to represent recent tuberculosis infection (cases). RESULTS: Of 503 genotyped isolates, 242 (48%) were categorized into 70 distinct clusters belonging to 12 RFLP families. The proportion of recent transmission was 34.2%. Kernel density maps indicated 3 areas of intense concentration of cases. K-function analysis of the largest RFLP clusters and families showed they co-localized in space. The distance analysis confirmed these results and demonstrated that unique strain patterns (controls) randomly distributed in space. A logit model identified young age, positive smear test, and lower Index of Quality of Urban Municipality as risk factors for recent transmission. The predicted probabilities for each neighborhood were mapped and identified neighborhoods with high risk for recent transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial and genotypic clustering of M. tuberculosis isolates revealed ongoing active transmission of tuberculosis caused by a small subset of strains in specific neighborhoods of the city. Such information provides an opportunity to target tuberculosis transmission control, such as through rigorous and more focused contact investigation programs.

Spatial analysis of distribution of dengue cases in Espírito Santo, Brazil, in 2010: use of Bayesian model.

OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between the risk of dengue and sociodemographic variables through the use of spatial regression models fully Bayesian in the municipalities of Espírito Santo in 2010. METHOD: This is an ecological study and exploration that used spatial analysis tools in preparing thematic maps with data obtained from SinanNet. An analysis by area, taking as unit the municipalities of the state, was performed. Thematic maps were constructed by the computer program R 2.15.00 and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), calculated in WinBugs, Absolut and Normalized Mean Error (NMAE) were the criteria used to compare the models. RESULTS: We were able to geocode 21,933 dengue cases (rate of 623.99 cases per 100 thousand habitants) with a higher incidence in the municipalities of Vitória, Serra and Colatina; model with spatial effect with the covariates trash and income showed the best performance at DIC and Nmae criteria. CONCLUSION: It was possible to identify the relationship of dengue with factors outside the health sector and to identify areas with higher risk of disease.

Epidemiology of extrapulmonary tuberculosis in Brazil: a hierarchical model.

BACKGROUND: Although extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) is less frequent than Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and is a secondary target for national TB control programs, its significance has increased worldwide during the HIV epidemic. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiology of EPTB in Brazil between 2007 and 2011. METHODS: Cross-sectional study involving all cases of TB reported to the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (Sistema de Informações de Agravo de Notificação - SINAN) in Brazil between 2007 and 2011. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of patients with exclusively PTB and exclusively EPTB were compared. Following analysis with Pearson's chi-square test, variables with p < 0.05 were included in a hierarchical regression model. Variables with p < 0.05 in the corresponding level were kept in the model. RESULTS: A total of 427,548 cases of TB were included. Of these, 356,342 cases (83.35%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 83.23% - 83.45%) were PTB, 57,217 (13.37%; 95% CI 13.28% - 13.48%) were EPTB, 13,989 (3.27%; 95% CI 3.21% - 3.32%) were concurrent pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB. Patients with EPTB were mainly white (16.7%), and most (29.1%) patients had five to eight years of education. Among comorbidities, HIV infection was prominent (OR 2.15; 95% CI 2.09 - 2.21), although the proportion of cases awaiting test results or untested was high (39%). Ethanol use (OR 0.45; 95% CI 0.43 - 0.46), diabetes mellitus (OR 0.54; 95% CI 0.51 - 0.57) and mental illness (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.82 - 0.95) were associated with PTB. CONCLUSIONS: Thirteen percent of patients diagnosed with TB in Brazil have only EPTB. More effective diagnostic strategies and control measures are needed to reduce the number of cases of extrapulmonary TB in Brazil.

Correlation between the spatial distribution of leprosy and socioeconomic indicators in the city of Vitória, State of ES, Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Leprosy is a disease that is directly linked to poverty. The number of cases in Vit6ria, the capital city of Espírito Santo, has been decreasing in recent years, but the disease remains highly endemic. This research aimed to identify relationships between the epidemiological status of leprosy and socioeconomic indicators during the period from 2005 to 2009. METHODS: An ecological study was performed based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in Vit6ria, Espírito Santo, between 2005 and 2009. The source data used were records available at the Secretary of State for Health of the Espírito Santo. We used the Urban Quality Index (IQU) as the leprosy-associated socioeconomic variable. The data were analysed with covariate and spatial effects by the WinBugs programme (Version 1.4) and R (Version 2.12). RESULTS: The spatial distribution of leprosy in the district is not uniform. By studying the geographic distribution of leprosy cases, and the risks estimated by the complete Bayesian model, it was possible to gain further insight into the distribution of leprosy cases. It was noted that neighbourhoods with a low IQU have a higher leprosy case detection rate than neighbourhoods with a higher IQU. This result reinforced the theory that a low IQU is associated with the emergence of leprosy. CONCLUSION: The model methodology adopted enabled the verification of the effect of the influence of covariates related to the social determinants of health as well as the spatial structure, in contrast to the gross rate method that does not aggregate this information. The results obtained suggest that leprosy control may be promoted by improving the socioeconomic indicators of neighbourhoods, and highlights the need for implementation of health policies aimed at people who live in areas where they are at greatest risk of getting sick.