Uncertainties analysis for the plutonium dosimetry model, doses-2005, using Mayak bioassay data.

The Doses-2005 model is a combination of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) models modified using data from the Mayak Production Association cohort. Surrogate doses from inhaled plutonium can be assigned to approximately 29% of the Mayak workers using their urine bioassay measurements and other history records. The purpose of this study was to quantify and qualify the uncertainties in the estimates for radiation doses calculated with the Doses-2005 model by using Monte Carlo methods and perturbation theory. The average uncertainty in the yearly dose estimates for most organs was approximately 100% regardless of the transportability classification. The relative source of the uncertainties comes from three main sources: 45% from the urine bioassay measurements, 29% from the Doses-2005 model parameters, and 26% from the reference masses for the organs. The most significant reduction in the overall dose uncertainties would result from improved methods in bioassay measurement with additional improvements generated through further model refinement. Additional uncertainties were determined for dose estimates resulting from changes in the transportability classification and the smoking toggle. A comparison was performed to determine the effect of using the model with data from either urine bioassay or autopsy data; no direct correlation could be established. Analysis of the model using autopsy data and incorporation of results from other research efforts that have utilized plutonium ICRP models could improve the Doses-2005 model and reduce the overall uncertainty in the dose estimates.

The historical and current application of the FIB-1 model to assess organ dose from plutonium intakes in Mayak workers.

One of the objectives of the Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research Project 2.4 is to document the methodology used to determine the radiation doses in workers from the Mayak Production Association who were exposed to plutonium. The doses have been employed in numerous dose response studies measuring both stochastic and deterministic effects. This article documents both the historical (pre-1999) and current ("Doses 1999") methods used by the FIB-1 scientists to determine the doses. Both methods are based on a three-chamber lung model developed by the FIB-1 scientists. This method was developed in partial isolation from the West and has unique characteristics from the more familiar ICRP biokinetic models. Some of these characteristics are the use of empirically based transportability classifications and the parameter modification for chelation-therapy-enhanced excretion data. An example dose calculation is provided and compared to the dose that would be obtained if the ICRP models were used. The comparison demonstrates that the models are not interchangeable and produce different results.