ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The relationship between thermal stress and health has been only marginally investigated in North Africa. This study aimed to estimate the short-term effect of heat on total mortality, in the city of Tunis in 2005-2007, using time series analysis. METHODS: The study period was restricted to the summer season (May-October) and heat effect was assessed using maximum temperature as exposure variable. We estimated the breakpoint above which heat-related mortality begins to increase using a segmented linear regression. A Poisson Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) model was then used to estimate the impact of heat on daily mortality. Models were adjusted for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), trend, calendar month, day of the week, the Ramadan period, and holidays. RESULTS: The estimated breakpoint was 31.5°C (standard deviation: 0.9°C). After adjustment for potential confounders, the daily mortality increased significantly by 2.00% [95% confidence interval: 0.68-3.16] for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature above the breakpoint. An increase of 10mg/m3 in NO2 was associated with a significant increase in daily mortality (0.48% [0.08-0.88]). CONCLUSION: There is an important effect of heat on daily mortality in the city of Tunis. This is the first evaluation of such an association in a North African city with hot and dry summers and a lower middle economy.
Subject(s)
Environmental Exposure/adverse effects , Environmental Exposure/statistics & numerical data , Heat-Shock Response/physiology , Hot Temperature/adverse effects , Mortality , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Air Pollutants/adverse effects , Air Pollution/adverse effects , Air Pollution/statistics & numerical data , Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology , Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality , Cause of Death , Child , Child, Preschool , Cities , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Particulate Matter/adverse effects , Seasons , Time Factors , Tunisia/epidemiology , Young AdultABSTRACT
The burden of influenza was estimated from surveillance data in Tunisia using epidemiological parameters of transmission with WHO classical tools and mathematical modelling. The incidence rates of influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100 000 were 18 735 in 2012/2013 season; 5536 in 2013/14 and 12 602 in 2014/15. The estimated proportions of influenza-associated ILI in the total outpatient load were 3.16%; 0.86% and 1.98% in the 3 seasons respectively. Distribution of influenza viruses among positive patients was: A(H3N2) 15.5%; A(H1N1)pdm2009 39.2%; and B virus 45.3% in 2014/2015 season. From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. More realistic versions of this model and improved estimates of parameters from surveillance data will strengthen the estimation of the burden of influenza.
Subject(s)
Cost of Illness , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/isolation & purification , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Models, Theoretical , Seasons , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Population Surveillance , Tunisia , Young AdultABSTRACT
The burden of influenza was estimated from surveillance data in Tunisia using epidemiological parameters of transmission with WHO classical tools and mathematical modelling. The incidence rates of influenza-associated influenza-like illness [ILI] per 100 000 were 18 735 in 2012/2013 season; 5536 in 2013/14 and 12 602 in 2014/15. The estimated proportions of influenza-associated ILI in the total outpatient load were 3.16%; 0.86% and 1.98% in the 3 seasons respectively. Distribution of influenza viruses among positive patients was: A[H3N2] 15.5%; A[H1N1] pdm2009 39.2%; and B virus 45.3% in 2014/2015 season. From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. More realistic versions of this model and improved estimates of parameters from surveillance data will strengthen the estimation of the burden of influenza
En Tunisie, la charge de la grippe a été estimée à partir des données de surveillance, en utilisant les paramètres épidémiologiques de la transmission avec les outils classiques de l'OMS et la modélisation mathématique. Les taux d'incidence des syndromes de type grippal [STG] associés à la grippe étaient 18 735 pour 100 000 pour la saison 2012-2013 ; 5 536 pour 2013-2014 et 12 602 pour 2014-2015. La part estimée de STG associés à la grippe pour la charge totale de patients externes était respectivement de 3,16%, 0,86% et 1,98% pour les trois saisons. Parmi les patients positifs au virus de la grippe, la répartition était la suivante pour la saison 2014-2015 : 15,5% pour le virus A[H3N2] ; 39,2% pour le virus A[H1N1]pdm2009 ; et 45,3% pour le virus B. A partir du nombre estimé de cas symptomatiques, nous avons calculé que la proportion critique de la population devant être vaccinée était respectivement de 15%, 4% et 10%. L'exécution du modèle avec les différentes valeurs de R0 nous a permis de déterminer le nombre de cas cliniques symptomatiques, les taux d'attaque clinique, les taux d'attaque clinique pour les cas symptomatiques et le nombre de décès. Des versions plus réalistes de ce modèle ainsi que des estimations améliorées des paramètres issus des données de surveillance permettront d'accroître l'utilité des modèles mathématiques
Subject(s)
Communicable Diseases , Influenza, Human , Seasons , Influenza A Virus, H1N1 SubtypeABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hospital-based cancer registries (HBR) of Comprehensive cancer centers (CCC) named "Enquête permanente cancer (EPC)" could represent an important information source of data for a population-based cancer registry (PBR). The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the concordance between data from HBR of the CCC for regions of Bordeaux and South-Western France and data from PBR of the General cancer registry of Gironde and the completeness for the year 2005, in order to explore the possibility for immediate integration of data collected by the HBR in the database of the PBR and to reduce the systematic consultation of medical records for cancer cases notified by the HBR. METHODS: We estimated the proportion of concordant cases between the HBR and the PBR and the unweighted and weighted Cohen's Kappa coefficient for certain variables. RESULTS: Among 1151 cases notified by the HBR, 1095 (positive predictive value of HBR: 95%) were included in the PBR database. For these admissible cases, sex, birth date and place for residence postal code at diagnosis were concordant in more than 94%. Concordance of cancer incidence date was 50% but difference between two dates was lower than 1 month in 91% of cases. Concordance of cancer topography and morphology was respectively 72% and 78%. Cancer progression, estimated by TNM classification was concordant in 96% of cases. The Kappa coefficient was 0.95 for pT, and respectively 0.92 for pN and M. CONCLUSION: Automatic data integration from the HBR database to the PBR database without consulting medical record will be possible in Gironde. But, topography and morphology will be systematically recoded using pathologist records. And, if cancer progression (coded by TNM classification) is missing in the HBR database, medical records will be consulted in order to complete this data in the PBR database.
Subject(s)
Medical Record Linkage , Neoplasms/epidemiology , Registries , France/epidemiology , Hospitals/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Medical Record Linkage/methods , Medical Records Systems, Computerized/statistics & numerical data , Neoplasms/diagnosis , Population Surveillance , Reproducibility of Results , Residence Characteristics , Time FactorsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The recent spread in the geographical distribution of the three forms of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) endemic in Tunisia has resulted in the coexistence of more than one species of Leishmania (L.) in some foci, rendering characterization on the basis of geographical criteria alone more difficult. The aim of the study was to establish clinical criteria associated with these noso-geographic forms, namely sporadic CL (SCL) due to L. infantum, zoonotic CL (ZCL) due to L. major and chronic CL (CCL) due to L. tropica. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One hundred and twelve patients with biologically confirmed CL were involved in the study. Leishmania species was systematically identified by iso-enzyme analysis and/or PCR-RFLP. Details of the number, the location, the morphological aspect and the month of outbreak of the lesions were noted for each patient. RESULTS: SCL lesions appeared later than ZCL lesions (53.8% of cases appeared from December onwards vs. 23.6%, P<0.001). ZCL lesions were often multiple (75%) and situated on the limbs (84.7%, P<0.001), whereas SCL lesions were single (92.3%, P<0.001) and located on the face (84.6%, P<0.001). CCL lesions were also single (78.6%) and located on the face (71.4%). The classical ulcerous presentation with scabs was mainly observed in ZCL patients (69.4%) and the erythematous presentation was described more frequently in SCL patients (75%; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The number, site, morphological aspect and month of outbreak of lesions could be considered as useful criteria that help differentiate between the three noso-geographical forms of CL prevailing in Tunisia. Such characterization is useful for the individual management of patients and for optimizing the combat against the disease.
Subject(s)
Endemic Diseases , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/diagnosis , Adult , Animals , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Leishmania infantum , Leishmania major , Leishmania tropica , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/epidemiology , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/parasitology , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/pathology , Male , Polymerase Chain Reaction , Polymorphism, Restriction Fragment Length , Prospective Studies , Seasons , Skin/parasitology , Skin/pathology , Tunisia , ZoonosesABSTRACT
The influence of thermal stress on health is proved. In the light of the current climate change this relationship should be extensively investigated. This study aims to describe the relationship between temperature and total mortality in the city of Tunis over a period of three years, from 2005 to 2007 using time series analysis. The form of the relation (crude and adjusted) between mortality and temperatures was investigated using Poisson generalized additive models (GAM). Confounders included in the models were pollutant, trend, calendar month, day of the week, the period of Ramadan, and holidays. The adjusted relationship between mortality and temperature was "V" shaped with a steeper slope for low temperatures than for high temperatures. The impact of heat on mortality will be further analyzed to refine our findings and to contribute to the elaboration of guidelines for preventive strategies.
