Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia.

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average ß = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

Exploring the experiences and perspectives of women on oral health during pregnancy: A qualitative study in Tasmania, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To explore women's oral health experiences and barriers to dental care and identify potential strategies to improve oral health during pregnancy. METHODS: A qualitative descriptive study design was used. Purposively elected antepartum and postpartum women ≥18 years of age from Tasmania, Australia, were recruited using maximum variation sampling. Semi-structured interviews were conducted, and all qualitative data were analysed using an inductive thematic approach. RESULTS: Fifteen women were interviewed with a mean ± SD age of 32.3 ± 4.5 years. Three key themes were generated from the data that described women's perceived changes in their oral health during pregnancy; barriers to oral health care during and after pregnancy; and perceived strategies to improve access to care. Most women acknowledged the importance of maintaining good oral health but reported a decline in their oral health status during pregnancy. Women also identified several barriers to dental care, including treatment costs, competing maternal priorities, limited oral health knowledge and negative perceptions towards dentistry. The provision of preventative oral health care by ANC providers was also limited. Community awareness, patient education resources and assessment tools could support the promotion of oral health care. Women also perceived that interprofessional collaboration between antenatal and dental providers played a key role in promoting oral health. CONCLUSION: This study explored women's varied oral health experiences and perceptions during pregnancy and highlighted critical barriers and enablers to dental care. Policy-level strategies that promote interprofessional collaboration between antenatal and dental providers and expand dental care access are suggested to overcome barriers to oral health for women during pregnancy.

Access to community water fluoridation in rural Victoria: It depends where you live .

OBJECTIVE: To explore the water fluoridation status of rural Victorian towns over 1000 population and document the oral health profile in the local government areas (LGAs) currently with no water fluoridation. To assist/inform future LGA planning, we describe a case study of a community-based co-design approach to increase access to fluoridated water in rural communities. DESIGN: A descriptive design and a case study. SETTING: Rural Victorian towns over 1000 population. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-nine LGAs in rural areas. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): LGA water fluoridation status and oral health profiles. RESULTS: Sixty-six (33%) of the 203 Victorian rural towns with >1000 population, representing 149 251 people, did not have access to fluoridated water. Towns in 29 rural LGAs were included with 62% without water fluoridation with many having higher than the Victorian average of preventable hospital admissions due to dental conditions in children aged 0-9 years. Over 50% of children aged 0-12 years living in these rural nonfluoridated LGAs had above-the-state average rates of decayed, missing and filled teeth (dmft/DMFT). In those aged 0-5 years, this was the highest with 78% above-the-state average. In the case study, meetings were well attended, and the group resolved to lobby for water fluoridation, which was successful. CONCLUSION: Many Victorian rural towns do not have access to fluoridated water. A community-based co-design approach can dispel ill-informed concerns about dangers of water fluoridation to successfully lobby the state government to fluoridate the local water supply.

Applying systems leadership and participatory action research in developing a water contamination management tool.

OBJECTIVE: This research used systems leadership to explore stakeholder engagement regarding requirements, incentives and barriers to adopting a faecal source tracking method to identify contamination sources in surface waters. SETTING: The research comprised two branches, one quantitative, conducted in a food and water laboratory; the other qualitative, conducted within stakeholder organisations and meeting premises. PARTICIPANTS: Ten stakeholder representatives participated in semi-structured interviews and ten in a focus group. Seven individuals participated in both activities while three who were interviewed were replaced by alternate representatives for the focus group. DESIGN: A multimethod participatory action research project was completed, with a quantitative trial of a microbial source tracking method conducted concurrently with two iterations of qualitative research into the needs of the stakeholder system through semi-structured interviews and a focus group. RESULTS: Thematic analysis of stakeholder interviews yielded key incentive and barrier themes, while the laboratory trial created a comparison library and tested the efficacy of the laboratory method. The focus group further explored key themes and identified requirements for collaborative effort across the system, and the need to address misinterpretation of statistical associations. CONCLUSION: Systems leadership was effective in exploring stakeholder interest in the proposed faecal source tracking method. Two iterations of qualitative research helped to identify the needs of individual stakeholders, and then develop collective strategies for addressing the critical incentives and barriers.

Clinical practice guidelines and consensus statements for antenatal oral healthcare: An assessment of their methodological quality and content of recommendations.

OBJECTIVES: To review the content of recommendations within antenatal oral healthcare guidance documents and appraise the quality of their methodology to inform areas of development, clinical practice, and research focus. METHOD: A systematic search of five electronic databases, Google search engine, and databases from relevant professional and guideline development groups published in English, developed countries, and between 2010 and 2020 was undertaken to identify guidance documents related to antenatal oral healthcare. Quality of documents was appraised using the Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation II tool, and a 3-step quality cut-off value was used. Inductive thematic analysis was employed to categories discreet recommendations into themes. RESULTS: Six guidelines and one consensus statement were analysed. Two documents developed within Australia scored ≥60% across five of the six domains of the quality appraisal tool and were recommended for use. Four documents (developed in the United States and Canada) were recommended for use with modifications, whilst one document (developed in Europe) was not recommended. A total of 98 discreet recommendations were identified and demonstrated considerable unanimity but differed in scope and level of information. The main content and number of recommendations were inductively categorised within the following clinical practice points: risk factor assessments (n = 2), screening and assessment (n = 10), pre-pregnancy care (referral, n = 1), antenatal care (health education and advice, n = 14; management of nausea and vomiting, n = 7; referral, n = 2), postnatal care (health education and advice, n = 1; anticipatory guidance, n = 6), documentation (n = 4), coordinated care (n = 4), capacity building (n = 6), and community engagement (n = 1). CONCLUSION: The methodological rigour of included guidance documents revealed areas of strengths and limitations and posit areas for improvement. Further research could centre on adapting antenatal oral healthcare guidelines and consensus statements to local contexts. More high-quality studies examining interventions within antenatal oral healthcare are needed to support the development of recommendations.

Connecting to the oceans: supporting ocean literacy and public engagement.

Improved public understanding of the ocean and the importance of sustainable ocean use, or ocean literacy, is essential for achieving global commitments to sustainable development by 2030 and beyond. However, growing human populations (particularly in mega-cities), urbanisation and socio-economic disparity threaten opportunities for people to engage and connect directly with ocean environments. Thus, a major challenge in engaging the whole of society in achieving ocean sustainability by 2030 is to develop strategies to improve societal connections to the ocean. The concept of ocean literacy reflects public understanding of the ocean, but is also an indication of connections to, and attitudes and behaviours towards, the ocean. Improving and progressing global ocean literacy has potential to catalyse the behaviour changes necessary for achieving a sustainable future. As part of the Future Seas project (https://futureseas2030.org/), this paper aims to synthesise knowledge and perspectives on ocean literacy from a range of disciplines, including but not exclusive to marine biology, socio-ecology, philosophy, technology, psychology, oceanography and human health. Using examples from the literature, we outline the potential for positive change towards a sustainable future based on knowledge that already exists. We focus on four drivers that can influence and improve ocean literacy and societal connections to the ocean: (1) education, (2) cultural connections, (3) technological developments, and (4) knowledge exchange and science-policy interconnections. We explore how each driver plays a role in improving perceptions of the ocean to engender more widespread societal support for effective ocean management and conservation. In doing so, we develop an ocean literacy toolkit, a practical resource for enhancing ocean connections across a broad range of contexts worldwide.

Factors Influencing the Provision of Oral Health Care Practices by Antenatal Care Providers: A Systematic Review.

Background: Antenatal care (ANC) providers are recommended to promote oral health care during pregnancy through the provision of oral health care practices, but studies have indicated that providers remain unclear and inconstant in adopting these practices into routine care. Therefore, the objectives were to undertake a systematic review of the current oral health care practices of ANC providers and identify factors (barriers and facilitators) that influence the provision of ANC providers' oral health care practices. Methods: Qualitative and quantitative studies were systematically searched within four databases (database inception, October 2020). Studies were selected if they were published in English and conducted in developed countries. Thematic analysis was employed where reported barriers and facilitators from the included studies were grouped by themes and were inductively categorized within a multilevel framework. Reported current oral health care practices were deductively categorized according to a predetermined "assess," "advise," and "refer" framework. Summative frequencies of oral health care practices, if reported, were also extracted. Results: A total of 3519 ANC providers were included across 26 studies. Rates of reported current oral health care practices among ANC providers varied considerably. The most reported barriers related to providers' limited oral health care knowledge, concerns with dental costs, and absence of organizational referral processes. The most reported facilitators related to providers' level of oral health care knowledge, patient prompt, and access to informational and educational resources. Conclusions: Further efforts are needed to address the range of barriers identified in this review and support ANC providers' clinical practice behaviors. This includes improved interprofessional education, training opportunities, and integrated health care models.

Oceans and society: feedbacks between ocean and human health.

The concentration of human population along coastlines has far-reaching effects on ocean and societal health. The oceans provide benefits to humans such as food, coastal protection and improved mental well-being, but can also impact negatively via natural disasters. At the same time, humans influence ocean health, for example, via coastal development or through environmental stewardship. Given the strong feedbacks between ocean and human health there is a need to promote desirable interactions, while minimising undesirable interactions. To this end, we articulate two scenarios for 2030. First, Business-as-Usual, named 'Command and (out of) Control', focuses on the anticipated future based on our current trajectory. Second, a more sustainable scenario called 'Living and Connecting', emphasises the development of interactions between oceans and society consistent with achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. We describe a potential pathway to achieving the 'Living and Connecting' scenario, centred on improving marine citizenship, achieving a more equitable distribution of power among stakeholders, and more equitable access to resources and opportunities. The constituent actions of this pathway can be categorised into four groups: (i) improved approaches to science and health communication that account for society's diverse values, beliefs and worldviews, (ii) a shift towards more trusted relationships among stakeholders to enable two-way knowledge exchange, (iii) economic incentives that encourage behavioural changes necessary for achieving desired sustainability outcomes, and (iv) stronger regulations that simultaneously focus on ocean and human health. We contend that these changes will provide improved outcomes for both oceans and society over the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09669-5.

A perspective of massive open online courses (MOOCs) and public health.

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have emerged as an innovative educational technology relevant to and affecting higher education, professional development, and lifelong learning. This paper introduces the principles of MOOCs and reviews the development of these platforms over time. We reflect upon the considerable investment by institutions to develop, deliver and promote such courses, particularly in public health. While open to interpretation, the inherent power, influence, and effectiveness of MOOCs is unquestionable. The potential contribution of MOOCs to public health education is immense, with almost universal reach and access. However, apart from research into participant engagement and knowledge, MOOC-related research and evaluation continue to lag with the rapid proliferation of these courses in response to emerging challenges, as seen with the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic. This makes analyzing the contribution of MOOCs to public health education, health promotion and community programs challenging. This perspective article provides a robust rationale for the necessity of MOOCs and their utility in upskilling health professionals and the general public. It builds on current knowledge to comprehensively explore the factors influencing the development, and application of MOOCs.

Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables.

BACKGROUND: Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June 2018 in Western Australia. Models were developed for 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Victoria and seven LGAs in Western Australia. We found generalised additive models and generalised boosted regression models, and generalised additive models and negative binomial models to be the best fit models when predicting RRV outbreaks and notifications, respectively. No association was found with a model's ability to predict RRV notifications in LGAs with greater RRV activity, or for outbreak predictions to have a higher accuracy in LGAs with greater RRV notifications. Moreover, we assessed the use of factor analysis to generate independent variables used in predictive modelling. In the majority of LGAs, this method did not result in better model predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that models which are developed and used for predicting disease notifications may not be suitable for predicting disease outbreaks, or vice versa. Furthermore, poor predictive performance in modelling disease transmissions may be the result of inappropriate model selection methods. Our findings provide approaches and methods to facilitate the selection of the best fit statistical model for predicting mosquito-borne disease notifications and outbreaks used for disease surveillance.

Association between obesity and periodontitis in Australian adults: A single mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and periodontitis are conditions with high burden and cost. This study aims to unfold the proposed pathways through which the effect of obesity in the presence of health behaviors (dental visiting behavior and diabetes) increases the risk of periodontitis? METHODS: The effect decomposition analysis using potential outcome approach was used to determine obesity-related periodontitis risk using the Australian National Survey of Adult Oral Health 2004 to 2006. A single mediation analysis for exposure, "physical-inactivity induced obesity," mediator "dental visiting behavior (a de facto measure of healthy behaviors)," outcome "periodontitis," and confounders "age, sex, household income, level of education, self-reported diabetes, alcohol-intake and smoking," was constructed for subset of 3,715 participants, aged ≥30 years. Proposed pathways were set independently for each risk factor and in synergy. The STATA 15 Paramed library was used for analysis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to detect unmeasured confounding using non-parametric approach. RESULTS: The average treatment effect of physical inactivity induced obesity to periodontitis is 14%. Pathway effect analysis using potential outcomes illustrated that the effect of obesity on periodontitis that was not mediated through poor dental visiting behavior was 10%. Indirect effect of obesity-mediated through poor dental visiting behavior on periodontitis was 3%. CONCLUSIONS: The direct effect of physical inactivity induced obesity on periodontitis was higher than the indirect effect of obesity on periodontitis through dental visiting behavior. Establishing a pathway of causal relationship for obesity and periodontitis could help in developing management strategies that focuses on mediators.

Poor oral hygiene, oral microorganisms and aspiration pneumonia risk in older people in residential aged care: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: aspiration pneumonia increases hospitalisation and mortality of older people in residential aged care. OBJECTIVES: determine potentially pathogenic microorganisms in oral specimens of older people with aspiration pneumonia and the effect of professional oral care in reducing aspiration pneumonia risk. DATA SOURCES: PUBMED/MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, COCHRANE, PROQUEST, Google Scholar, Web of Science. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: published between January 2001 and December 2019 addressing oral microorganisms, aspiration pneumonia, oral health and treatment. PARTICIPANTS: people 60 years and older in residential aged care. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Intervention Trials checklist. RESULTS: twelve studies (four cross-sectional, five cohort and three intervention) reported colonisation of the oral cavity of older people by microorganisms commonly associated with respiratory infections. Aspiration pneumonia occurred less in people who received professional oral care compared with no such care. Isolation of Candida albicans, Staphylococcus aureus, methicillin-resistant S. aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa was related to mortality due to aspiration pneumonia. An interesting finding was isolation of Escherichia coli, a gut bacterium. LIMITATIONS: more information may be present in publications about other co-morbidities that did not meet inclusion criteria. A high degree of heterogeneity prevented a meta-analysis. Issues included sampling size, no power and effect size calculations; different oral health assessments; how oral specimens were analysed and how aspiration pneumonia was diagnosed. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS: pathogenic microorganisms colonising the oral microbiome are associated with aspiration pneumonia in older people in residential care; professional oral hygiene care is useful in reducing aspiration pneumonia risk.

Non-surgical periodontal therapy effectively improves patient-reported outcomes: A systematic review.

AIM: Modern lifespan oral health research focuses on understanding the impact of periodontitis (or therapy) on clinical and patient-based outcome measures to provide effective care, improve patient safety according to the quality standards. For better targeted intervention and effective disease management, this systematically review aimed to investigate the relationship between non-surgical periodontal therapy and patient-based outcomes using OHIP-14. METHODS: Seven Databases were searched for studies on patient-based outcomes responses to periodontal treatment. The time-period defined from search was from January 1977 to January 2019. Two independent reviewers carried out data search, selection of studies, data extraction and quality assessment using Mixed Method Appraisal Tool. Prospective cohort studies, intervention studies and observational studies written in English demonstrating non-surgical periodontal therapy response on the patient-reported outcomes (using Oral Health Impact Profile 14) were included in the review. RESULTS: Thirteen studies were included in the review, which comprised of three randomised control trials, nine case series, and one was a quasi-experimental study. Eleven out of the 13 studies reported significant improvement in OHIP-14 scores amongst participants who had undergone non-surgical periodontal therapy. Physical disability, psychological discomfort and functional limitation were domains that improved significantly after non-surgical periodontal therapy in these studies. Physical pain was a common finding in short-term follow-up but improved significantly in long-term follow-up studies. CONCLUSION: Based on clinical and patient-based outcomes measurement, it is recommended that non-surgical periodontal therapy is a "gold standard" approach towards improving patient-based outcomes, reducing co-morbidities and enhancing patient safely immediately and in long term.

A Devil of a Transmissible Cancer.

Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) encompasses two independent transmissible cancers that have killed the majority of Tasmanian devils. The cancer cells are derived from Schwann cells and are spread between devils during biting, a common behavior during the mating season. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines a parasite as "An organism that lives on or in a host organism and gets its food from, or at, the expense of its host." Most cancers, including DFTD, live within a host organism and derive resources from its host, and consequently have parasitic-like features. Devil facial tumor disease is a transmissible cancer and, therefore, DFTD shares one additional feature common to most parasites. Through direct contact between devils, DFTD has spread throughout the devil population. However, unlike many parasites, the DFTD cancer cells have a simple lifecycle and do not have either independent, vector-borne, or quiescent phases. To facilitate a description of devil facial tumor disease, this review uses life cycles of parasites as an analogy.

Global Medicine, Parasites, and Tasmania.

Until the 1970s, infectious disease training in most medical schools was limited to those diseases common in the area of instruction. Those wishing to explore a more globalised curriculum were encouraged to undertake specialist postgraduate training at schools or institutes of tropical medicine. However, the increase in global trade and travel from the 1970s onward led to dramatic changes in the likelihood of returning travellers and new immigrants presenting with tropical infections in temperate regions. Furthermore, population growth and the changing relationships between animals, the environment, and man in agriculture accentuated the importance of a wider understanding of emerging infectious diseases, zoonotic diseases and parasitic infections. These epidemiological facts were not adequately reflected in the medical literature or medical curriculum at the time. The orientation on tropical infections needed specialised attention, including instruction on diagnosis and treatment of such infections. We describe key global health events and how the changing field of global medicine, from the 1970s to early 2000, impacted on medical education and research. We describe the impact of global health changes in the Tasmanian context, a temperate island state of Australia. We retrospectively analysed data of patients diagnosed with parasites and present a list of endemic and non-endemic parasites reported during this period. Finally, we reflect on the new approaches to the changing needs of global health and challenges that medical programmes, learners and educators face today.

Obesity and periodontitis in Australian adults: A population-based cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: Obesity and periodontitis are public health issues in Australia. This study aimed to determine the association between overweight/obesity and periodontitis in Australian adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The cross-sectional National Survey of Adult Oral Health 2004-2006 data were analysed. Body mass index was calculated, and a self-reported questionnaire was used to measure the estimated daily intake of added sugar. The mean number of sites with probing depth (PD) ≥ 4 mm and clinical attachment loss (CAL) ≥ 4 mm and presence of periodontitis were used as outcome measures. CDC/AAP periodontitis case definition was adopted. Bivariate analyses and multiple variable regression models were constructed. RESULTS: The study sample was 4,170 participants. The proportion of people that were overweight/obese was 51.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 48.1%, 54.1%]. Overall 21.3% (95% CI: 19.3%, 23.5%) people experienced periodontitis. The mean number of sites with PD ≥ 4 mm and CAL ≥ 4 mm were recorded as 0.7 (95% CI: 0.5, 0.9) and 2.4 (95% CI: 2.1, 2.6), respectively. Multiple variable analysis suggested that periodontal parameters [sites with PD ≥ 4 mm (0.13, 95% CI: -0.86, 0.35) and sites with CAL ≥ 4 mm (0.11, 95% CI: -0.58, 0.35) and presence of periodontitis (1.23, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.57)] were not associated with overweight/obesity when controlled for putative confounders. CONCLUSION: A positive association was found between overweight/obesity and periodontitis (PD and CAL). However, the statistical significance disappeared in the multiple variable regression analysis, where age, sex, smoking and dental visiting behaviour were found to be key determinants of periodontitis.

Emergency first aid readiness in Antarctica: Australian Antarctic expeditioners' first aid credentials and self-efficacy.

INTRODUCTION: To help prevent future morbidity and mortality, this study examined Australian Antarctic expeditioners' first aid credentials and self-efficacy in providing emergency first aid in extreme environments. METHODS: A mixed method survey assessed Australian personnel working on Antarctic stations. Volunteer participants (n = 83) provided data on first aid training, self-confidence of first aid readiness, and first aid preparations. The Extreme Conditions First Aid Confidence Scale (EC-FACS) was developed and validated for this study. Multivariate analyses tested associations between first aid background, demographics and EC-FACS. Open-ended comments were subjected to thematic analysis. RESULTS: Over one-third of participants did not hold current first aid certificates at expedition commencement. Factor analysis demonstrated the EC-FACS was unidimensional, and internal consistency was high (α = 0.94), and showed first aid self-efficacy was moderately high, but participants' confidence decreased as first aid scenarios became more complex. Experience providing emergency first aid and level of first aid qualification were the strongest predictors of overall first aid self-efficacy. Thematic analysis revealed expeditioners support higher first aid qualifications and want Antarctic-specific wilderness first aid training. CONCLUSIONS: These findings revealed that many Antarctic expeditioners may not be adequately prepared for first aid emergencies and have low confidence in handling complex medical situations. Based on these findings, we recommend higher first aid qualifications and training tailored to the Antarctic context. These modest steps can help prevent unnecessary and costly morbidity and mortality for extreme-condition expeditioners.

Independent effect of haemodialysis session frequency and duration on survival in non-indigenous Australians on haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: End-stage kidney disease patients have increased mortality compared to the general population. Haemodialysis (HD) of more frequent and of longer duration has been proposed to improve survival but it remains unclear if this is attributed to increased frequency, duration, or both. We aimed to examine the independent effects of session frequency and duration on mortality in incident HD patients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed using data from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry examining non-Indigenous patients aged ≥18 years who initiated HD of ≥3 sessions/week in Australia from 2001 to 2015. Initial dialysis prescription was categorized as session duration >5 h/session compared to ≤5 h/session and session frequency as >3 sessions/week compared to 3 sessions/week. Survival analysis was performed using Cox regression analysis, with multivariable analysis controlling for available covariates. RESULTS: We examined 16 944 patients of whom 757 (4.5%) received >3 sessions/week and 518 (3.1%) received >5 h/session. After controlling for frequency, patients initiated on HD sessions >5 h had a significantly reduced risk of mortality compared with patients with HD session ≤5 h (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.57; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.44-0.74). In contrast, patients initiated on >3 sessions/week of HD had a similar risk of death when compared with patients on 3 sessions/week of HD (adjusted HR = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.84-1.13), after controlling for duration. Limitations include potential residual confounding and changes in exposure over time. CONCLUSION: Longer duration rather than increased frequency of treatment appears to reduce mortality in HD patients. This has implications for management and requires further study.

The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia.

Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRV transmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warning forecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRV notifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, and oceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 to June 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing data set. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRV notifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRV notifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreak in 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. All 11 LGAs experienced an outbreak in 2016/17, however only six LGAs could predict the outbreak using the same model. We document similarities and differences in factors useful for forecasting RRV notifications across Victoria and demonstrate that readily available and inexpensive climate and environmental data can be used to predict epidemic periods in some areas. Furthermore, we highlight in certain regions the complexity of RRV transmission where additional epidemiological information is needed to accurately predict RRV activity. Our findings have been applied to produce a Ross River virus Outbreak Surveillance System (ROSS) to aid in public health decision making in Victoria.