Determining the Effect of Drying Time on Phosphorus Solubilization from Three Agricultural Soils under Climate Change Scenarios.

Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying-rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.

Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change.

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.

Lattice Boltzmann method for the fractional advection-diffusion equation.

Mass transport, such as movement of phosphorus in soils and solutes in rivers, is a natural phenomenon and its study plays an important role in science and engineering. It is found that there are numerous practical diffusion phenomena that do not obey the classical advection-diffusion equation (ADE). Such diffusion is called abnormal or superdiffusion, and it is well described using a fractional advection-diffusion equation (FADE). The FADE finds a wide range of applications in various areas with great potential for studying complex mass transport in real hydrological systems. However, solution to the FADE is difficult, and the existing numerical methods are complicated and inefficient. In this study, a fresh lattice Boltzmann method is developed for solving the fractional advection-diffusion equation (LabFADE). The FADE is transformed into an equation similar to an advection-diffusion equation and solved using the lattice Boltzmann method. The LabFADE has all the advantages of the conventional lattice Boltzmann method and avoids a complex solution procedure, unlike other existing numerical methods. The method has been validated through simulations of several benchmark tests: a point-source diffusion, a boundary-value problem of steady diffusion, and an initial-boundary-value problem of unsteady diffusion with the coexistence of source and sink terms. In addition, by including the effects of the skewness ß, the fractional order α, and the single relaxation time τ, the accuracy and convergence of the method have been assessed. The numerical predictions are compared with the analytical solutions, and they indicate that the method is second-order accurate. The method presented will allow the FADE to be more widely applied to complex mass transport problems in science and engineering.

Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments.

We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km(2)) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.

A cloud based tool for knowledge exchange on local scale flood risk.

There is an emerging and urgent need for new approaches for the management of environmental challenges such as flood hazard in the broad context of sustainability. This requires a new way of working which bridges disciplines and organisations, and that breaks down science-culture boundaries. With this, there is growing recognition that the appropriate involvement of local communities in catchment management decisions can result in multiple benefits. However, new tools are required to connect organisations and communities. The growth of cloud based technologies offers a novel way to facilitate this process of exchange of information in environmental science and management; however, stakeholders need to be engaged with as part of the development process from the beginning rather than being presented with a final product at the end. Here we present the development of a pilot Local Environmental Virtual Observatory Flooding Tool. The aim was to develop a cloud based learning platform for stakeholders, bringing together fragmented data, models and visualisation tools that will enable these stakeholders to make scientifically informed environmental management decisions at the local scale. It has been developed by engaging with different stakeholder groups in three catchment case studies in the UK and a panel of national experts in relevant topic areas. However, these case study catchments are typical of many northern latitude catchments. The tool was designed to communicate flood risk in locally impacted communities whilst engaging with landowners/farmers about the risk of runoff from the farmed landscape. It has been developed iteratively to reflect the needs, interests and capabilities of a wide range of stakeholders. The pilot tool combines cloud based services, local catchment datasets, a hydrological model and bespoke visualisation tools to explore real time hydrometric data and the impact of flood risk caused by future land use changes. The novel aspects of the pilot tool are; the co-evolution of tools on a cloud based platform with stakeholders, policy and scientists; encouraging different science disciplines to work together; a wealth of information that is accessible and understandable to a range of stakeholders; and provides a framework for how to approach the development of such a cloud based tool in the future. Above all, stakeholders saw the tool and the potential of cloud technologies as an effective means to taking a whole systems approach to solving environmental issues. This sense of community ownership is essential in order to facilitate future appropriate and acceptable land use management decisions to be co-developed by local catchment communities. The development processes and the resulting pilot tool could be applied to local catchments globally to facilitate bottom up catchment management approaches.