Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting.

Recent temperature extremes have shattered previously observed records, reaching intensities that were inconceivable before the events. Could the possibility of an event with such unprecedented intensity as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave have been foreseen, based on climate model information available before the event? Could the scientific community have quantified its potential intensity based on the current generation of climate models? Here, we demonstrate how an ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically plausible storylines of a heatwave hotter than observed in the Pacific Northwest. We also show that heatwaves of much greater intensities than ever observed are possible in other locations like the Greater Chicago and Paris regions. In order to establish confidence in storylines of 'black swan'-type events, different lines of evidence need to be combined along with process understanding to make this information robust and actionable for stakeholders.

Noble gas and major element constraints on the water dynamics in an alpine floodplain.

The hydrogeological system of an ecologically sensitive alpine floodplain in the Valle di Blenio, Switzerland, was investigated using hydrochemical and 3H-3He dating methods. Water samples from six wells and from different surface locations were analyzed. The analysis of the concentrations of major ions in conjunction with age determination by the 3H-3He-method allowed the main hydrological properties of the system to be consistently characterized. Two geochemically distinct water zones can be distinguished: Ca-SO4-dominated water from the main river and Ca-HCO3-dominated floodplain water. The floodplain water component characterizes the whole floodplain including the surficial hillslope drainage system. Within the ground water samples, two spatially and temporally different types of water can be determined. A younger (age < 1.5 years), less mineralized water is found in the upper part of the aquifer during the summer season. The underlying aquifer zone contains older and more highly mineralized water. However, the general hydrochemical characterization of both types of ground water is similar. In winter, the water ages increase with decreasing ground water levels. Because precipitation is stored temporarily in the snow cover, the contribution of the younger near-surface ground water decreases, resulting in higher apparent water ages and higher mineralization in the upper zone of the aquifer. Water exchange between the main river and the ground water system is limited to ground water exfiltration from the shallow aquifer zone, whereas the hydrochemical separation of the deeper aquifer zone indicates the isolation of the deeper ground water from the main river.

Palaeotemperature reconstruction from noble gases in ground water taking into account equilibration with entrapped air

Noble-gas concentrations in ground water have been used as a proxy for past air temperatures, but the accuracy of this approach has been limited by the existence of a temperature-independent component of the noble gases in ground water, termed 'excess air' whose origin and composition is poorly understood. In particular, the evidence from noble gases in a Brazilian aquifer for a cooling of more than 5 C in tropical America during the Last Glacial Maximum has been called into question. Here we propose a model for dissolved gases in ground water, which describes the formation of excess air by equilibration of ground water with entrapped air in quasi-saturated soils. Our model predicts previously unexplained noble-gas data sets, including the concentration of atmospheric helium, and yields consistent results for the non-atmospheric helium isotopes that are used for dating ground water. Using this model of excess air, we re-evaluate the use of noble gases from ground water for reconstructing past temperatures. Our results corroborate the inferred cooling in Brazil during the Last Glacial Maximum, and indicate that even larger cooling took place at mid-latitudes.

Climate and groundwater recharge during the last glaciation in an ice-covered region

A multitracer study of a small aquifer in northern Switzerland indicates that the atmosphere in central Europe cooled by at least 5 degreesC during the last glacial period. The relation between oxygen isotope ratios (delta18O) and recharge temperatures reconstructed for this period is similar to the present-day one if a shift in the delta18O value of the oceans during the ice age is taken into account. This similarity suggests that the present-day delta18O-temperature relation can be used to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions in northern Switzerland. A gap in calculated groundwater age between about 17,000 and 25,000 years before the present indicates that during the last glacial maximum, local groundwater recharge was prevented by overlying glaciers.