Oral Anticoagulant Use in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation at Low Risk of Stroke and Associated Bleeding Complications.

BACKGROUND: The use of oral anticoagulants (OACs) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and low stroke risk might cause more harm than benefit. Little attention has been given to address its prevalence and associated consequences. This study aimed to investigate the prescription rate of OACs, identify associated factors, and describe incident bleeding events in low-risk patients. METHODS: We included patients with a new diagnosis of AF between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2018 having a low risk of stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0 for males and 1 for females) from Australian general practice data (MedicineInsight). Patients were classified as OAC users if there was a recorded prescription of an OAC within 60 days of AF diagnosis, and factors associated with the prescription of an OAC were assessed using logistic regression. Recorded incident bleeding events were identified within 6 months after AF diagnosis or after OAC initiation for OAC non-users and users, respectively. The risk of bleeding was compared between the two groups by adjusting their baseline differences using propensity score matching. RESULTS: The study included 2810 low-risk patients (62.3% male) with a mean age of 49.3 ± 10.8 years. Of the total, 705 (25.1%) patients had a record of OAC prescription within 60 days of diagnosis of AF. Older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.04) and diagnosis periods (2015-2016 [OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.10-1.94] and 2017-2018 [OR 1.65; 95% CI 1.17-2.23] vs. 2011-2012) were associated with higher odds of OAC initiation. Female sex (OR 0.71; 95% CI 0.59-0.85), higher bleeding risk (ORBIT score; OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.68-0.94), and higher socioeconomic index for areas (SEIFA) quintiles (SEIFA quintiles; 2 [OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.48-0.88], 3 [OR 0.74; 95% CI 0.56-0.98], 4 [OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.52-0.94], 5 [OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.52-0.91] compared with quintile 1) were associated with lower odds of OAC prescription. A total of 52 (in 1.8% of patients) incident bleeds were identified, with 18 (2.6%) among OAC users. The rate of bleeding was not significantly different between users and non-users after matching. However, within OAC users, commencement of OAC was associated with an increased risk of bleeding compared to the period before OAC initiation (p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: One in four patients at low risk of stroke received an OAC within 60 days of AF diagnosis. Older age and the period following the widespread availability of direct-acting OACs were associated with an increased likelihood of OAC prescription. Positively, using OACs was not associated with an increased rate of bleeding compared to non-users.

Hypocalcemic tetany associated with simultaneous administration of cimetidine and nifedipine: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Acute hypocalcemia is generally caused by a sudden drop in serum calcium ion and presents with a mild or severe form of tetany. Even though the occurrence of hypocalcemia is well documented with certain drugs such as calcium chelators, bisphosphonates, and cisplatin, it is a very unusual and poorly documented adverse event with cimetidine and nifedipine. Here, we present a case of severe hypocalcemic tetany during simultaneous administration of cimetidine and nifedipine in a hypertensive patient with dyspepsia. CASE PRESENTATION: A 46-year-old known human immunodeficiency virus patient from Ethiopia on antiretroviral therapy over the past 14 years presented to the emergency department with acute exacerbation of dyspepsia and hypertensive urgency. She was given intravenous cimetidine (400 mg) and oral nifedipine (30 mg) simultaneously. One hour after the administration of these two drugs, she developed severe hypocalcemic tetany with carpopedal spasm, involuntary plantar flexion, and muscle spasms. She also had severe retrosternal chest pain and shortness of breath. Her blood pressure was 160/110 mmHg during the attack and she had no skin changes, such as urticaria. She was immediately given 1 g of calcium gluconate intravenously over 30 minutes. The carpopedal spasm progressively decreased during calcium gluconate administration. An hour later, she completely regained voluntary movement of her fingers and feet. The chest pain persisted, but resolved over the next 12 hours. The patient was discharged home after 2 days of observation. This is an unusual adverse effect that needs caution during concomitant administration of these drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Severe hypocalcemic tetany can occur with concomitant administration of cimetidine and nifedipine. Immediate treatment with calcium gluconate quickly reverses this adverse event. Concomitant administration of these drugs should be done with caution or be avoided if possible.

Clinical outcomes of oral anticoagulant discontinuation in atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Oral anticoagulants (OACs) should generally be continued lifelong in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) to ensure optimal benefits, unless contraindications arise. However, discontinuation of OACs might occur for various reasons, potentially affecting clinical outcomes. In this review, we synthesized evidence on the clinical outcomes following OAC discontinuation in patients with AF. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using PubMed, Embase and Scopus. Cohort or case-control studies were included if data were available on clinical outcomes of OAC discontinuation, compared with continuation, in patients with AF. A random-effect meta-analyses were conducted for key outcomes of stroke, mortality, and major bleeding. RESULTS: Eighteen observational studies having a total of 283,418 patients were included. Discontinuation significantly increased the risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 1.88; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.58-2.23), all-cause (HR 1.90; 95% CI 1.40-2.59) and cardiovascular (HR 1.83; 95% CI 1.06-3.18) mortality. The risk of major bleeding was not significantly different between the discontinued and continued groups (HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.72-1.52). CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation of OAC therapy was associated with an increased risk of stroke and mortality, with no difference in the risk of major bleeding. Acknowledging heterogeneity among the studies, the findings underline the need to ensure continuity of OAC therapy in patients with AF to prevent thrombotic complications and associated mortality. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020186116.

Ten-Year Trends in Psychotropic Prescribing and Polypharmacy in Australian General Practice Patients with and without Dementia.

OBJECTIVE: Little research has evaluated trends in psychotropic prescribing and polypharmacy in primary care patients, especially those with dementia. We sought to examine this in Australia from 2011 to 2020 using the primary care dataset, MedicineInsight. METHODS: Ten consecutive serial cross-sectional analyses were performed to evaluate the proportion of patients aged 65 years or more, with a recorded diagnosis of dementia, who were prescribed psychotropic medications within the first six months of each year from 2011 to 2020. This proportion was compared with propensity score-matched control patients without dementia. RESULTS: Before matching, 24,701 patients (59.2% females) with, and 72,105 patients (59.2% females) without, a recorded diagnosis of dementia were included. In 2011, 42% (95% confidence interval [CI] 40.5-43.5%) of patients in the dementia group had at least one recorded prescription of a psychotropic medication, which declined to 34.2% (95% CI 33.3-35.1%; p for trend < 0.001) by 2020. However, it remained unchanged for matched controls (36% [95% CI 34.6-37.5%] in 2011 and 36.7% [95% CI 35.7-37.6%] in 2020). The greatest decline in the dementia groups by medication class was for antipsychotics (from 15.9% [95% CI 14.8-17.0%] to 8.8% [95% CI 8.2-9.4%]; p for trend < 0.001). During this period, the prevalence of psychotropic polypharmacy (use of two or more individual psychotropics) also decreased from 21.7% (95% CI 20.5-22.9%) to 18.1% (95% CI 17.4-18.9%) in the dementia groups, and slightly increased from 15.2% (95% CI 14.1-16.3%) to 16.6% (95% CI 15.9-17.3%) in the matched controls. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in psychotropic prescribing, particularly antipsychotics, in Australian primary care patients with dementia is encouraging. However, psychotropic polypharmacy still occurred in almost one in five patients with dementia at the end of the study period. Programs focused on encouraging further reductions in the use of multiple psychotropic drugs in patients with dementia are recommended, particularly in rural and remote regions.

Incidence of Osteoporosis in Primary Care Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Receiving Different Oral Anticoagulants.

Background: Studies investigating the association between the use of oral anticoagulants (OACs) and osteoporosis are limited. We aimed to determine the risk of osteoporosis in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and receiving different OACs. Methods: We performed a population-based cohort study using a nationwide primary care dataset, MedicineInsight. Patients aged between 18 and 111 years with AF and newly recorded OAC prescriptions between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2017 were included and followed until 31 December 2018. We applied propensity score matching to control for patients' baseline characteristic differences before calculating adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for a new diagnosis of osteoporosis, using Cox proportional hazard models. Results: A total of 18,454 patients (1714 prescribed dabigatran, 5871 rivaroxaban, 5248 apixaban and 5621 warfarin) were included. Of these, 39.5% were females, and the overall mean age (standard deviation [SD] was 73.2(10.3) years. Over a mean follow-up of 841 days, 1627 patients (1028 receiving direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and 599 warfarin) had a newly recorded diagnosis of osteoporosis. The weighted incidence rates (95% confidence interval; CI) per 100 person-years of treatment were 5.0 (4.7−5.2) for warfarin, 4.3 (3.8−4.8) for dabigatran, 3.6 (3.3−3.8) for rivaroxaban, and 4.4 (4.0−4.7) for apixaban. Overall, DOAC use was associated with a significantly lower risk of a new diagnosis of osteoporosis than warfarin use (aHR, 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74−0.85; p < 0.001). Use of each individual DOAC was associated with a significantly lower risk of osteoporosis compared with warfarin (aHRs, 0.75, 95% CI 0.69−0.82 for rivaroxaban; 0.78, 95% CI 0.71−0.86 for apixaban; 0.88, 95% CI 0.77−0.99 for dabigatran). Conclusion: Compared with warfarin, the use of DOACs was associated with a significantly lower risk of developing osteoporosis in patients with AF. This association remained significant when individual DOACs were compared with warfarin.

Oral Anticoagulant Discontinuation and Its Predictors in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Oral anticoagulants (OACs) are important in reducing the risk of ischaemic stroke in people with atrial fibrillation (AF). Although patients need to take their OAC continuously, it has been suggested that discontinuation is common in clinical practice, and this could predispose patients to thrombotic complications. AIMS: To investigate the rate of OAC discontinuation and its predictors in patients with AF, using national data from Australian general practices. METHODS: We analysed data obtained from NPS MedicineWise's MedicineInsight dataset. We included patients with a recorded diagnosis of AF who newly started an OAC between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2017. Patients were considered persistent if an OAC was prescribed continuously without discontinuing more than 60 days gap in therapy. The follow-up period was 12 months post-initiation. Multivariable models were used for the analysis of predictors. RESULTS: Of 16,075 patients included in the cohort, 47.3% were females, and the mean age was 74.6 (SD 10.2) years. The overall OAC discontinuation rate was 13.2% (confidence interval (CI) 12.6-13.7%) by 12 months post-initiation. The discontinuation rates for warfarin, apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban were 18.3% (95% CI 17.2-19.5%), 10.1% (95% CI 9.2-11.0%), 10.9% (95% CI 9.4-12.5%) and 12.2% (95% CI 11.4-13.2%), respectively. Warfarin had a significantly higher risk of discontinuation compared to direct-acting OACs. Factors that are known to increase the risk of stroke (older age, diabetes, and hypertension) were associated with better persistence. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively high proportion of patients with AF continued OAC therapy by 12 months post-initiation. Positively, patients with the highest risk of stroke and lowest risk of bleeds seemed to have better persistence.

Comparison of the global prevalence and trend of human intestinal carriage of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli between healthcare and community settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objectives: The widespread intestinal carriage of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL E. coli) among both patients and healthy individuals is alarming. However, the global prevalence and trend of this MDR bacterium in healthcare settings remains undetermined. To address this knowledge gap, we performed a comparative meta-analysis of the prevalence in community and healthcare settings. Methods: Our systematic review included 133 articles published between 1 January 2000 and 22 April 2021 and indexed in PubMed, EMBASE or Google Scholar. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to obtain the global pooled prevalence (community and healthcare settings). Subgroup meta-analyses were performed by grouping studies using the WHO regions and 5 year intervals of the study period. Results: We found that 21.1% (95% CI, 19.1%-23.2%) of inpatients in healthcare settings and 17.6% (95% CI, 15.3%-19.8%) of healthy individuals worldwide carried ESBL E. coli in their intestine. The global carriage rate in healthcare settings increased 3-fold from 7% (95% CI, 3.7%-10.3%) in 2001-05 to 25.7% (95% CI, 19.5%-32.0%) in 2016-20, whereas in community settings it increased 10-fold from 2.6% (95% CI, 1.2%-4.0%) to 26.4% (95% CI, 17.0%-35.9%) over the same period. Conclusions: The global and regional human intestinal ESBL E. coli carriage is increasing in both community and healthcare settings. Carriage rates were generally higher in healthcare than in community settings. Key relevant health organizations should perform surveillance and implement preventive measures to address the spread of ESBL E. coli in both settings.

Improving Knowledge and Early Detection of Atrial Fibrillation through a Community-Based Opportunistic Screening Program: What's Your Beat?

A community-based opportunistic screening program was implemented to (i) improve atrial fibrillation (AF) awareness and detection and (ii) assess the performance of the Microlife WatchBP Home A for detecting AF when used in community screening. Screening sessions were conducted among people aged ≥ 65 years with no history of AF at public events across Tasmania, Australia. Participants with positive screening results were referred to their general medical practitioner for assessment. The device's performance was assessed using the positive predictive value. A total of 1704 eligible participants were screened at 79 sessions. Of these people, 50 (2.9%) had a positive screening result. The device correctly identified AF in 22 (46.8%) participants with positive results. Among those with subsequently confirmed AF, 6 (27.3%) had a history of AF but were not aware of the diagnosis, and 16 (72.7%) were identified to have previously undiagnosed AF, with an overall prevalence of 0.9% (95% CI, 0.58 to 1.52). Oral anticoagulation therapy was initiated in 12 (87.5%) eligible participants. The positive predictive value of the device was 46.8% (95% CI, 33.3 to 60.7). Given the relatively low performance of the device, its application in community-based opportunistic screening programs for AF is unlikely to be cost-effective.

Eight-Year Trends in Direct-Acting Oral Anticoagulant Dosing, Based on Age and Kidney Function, in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: Concerns have been raised over the appropriateness of dosing of direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in clinical practice. We investigated this issue in patients who were initiated on a DOAC in Australian general practices. METHODS: This was a retrospective study among patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) who were prescribed DOACs, using data obtained from 417 general practice sites across Australia over 8 years (2011-2019). Direct-acting oral anticoagulant dosing was compared with published recommendations, in relation to age and kidney function. RESULTS: A total of 11,251 patients (mean age, 72.8 y; 46.8% female) newly diagnosed with AF were prescribed a DOAC. Of these, 2667 patients (23.7%) had a recorded prescription of a potentially inappropriate DOAC dosage, of whom 2304 (86.4%) and 283 (10.6%) were prescribed lower and higher than the recommended dosage, respectively. The remaining 80 patients (3.0%) were initiated on DOACs when contraindicated based on renal function. Overall, the proportion of patients who seemed to be initiated on a potentially inappropriate DOAC dose decreased from 38.3% (95% confidence interval, 26.1%-51.8%) in 2012 to 22.7% (95% confidence interval, 19.8%-26.0%; P < 0.001) in 2019. By 2019, 19.4%, 20.3%, and 9.3% of the patients with a recorded prescription of apixaban, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran, respectively, received a lower-than-guideline-recommended dose. The patients were more likely to be prescribed a potentially inappropriate dosage if they were elderly with multiple comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Potential inappropriate DOAC dosing is a problem in the prevention of stroke associated with AF. Nearly 1 in 5 patients received a lower-than-guideline-recommended dose, indicating a need for strategies to raise awareness among prescribers.

Comparing the renal outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation receiving different oral anticoagulants.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare renal function changes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) prescribed different oral anticoagulants (OACs). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of Australian national primary care data. A total of 12,562 patients with AF and initiated OAC between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2017 were included. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used for balancing baseline characteristics and the risks of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients prescribed each OAC were compared. RESULTS: Compared with warfarin, prescribing of direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) was associated with a lower risk of renal function decline per 1000 person-years: hazard ratio (HR) 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.81, p < 0.001 for ≥30% decline in eGFR; HR 0.28, 95% CI 0.20-0.41, p < 0.001 for eGFR decline to ≤30 mL/min/1.73 m2; and HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35-0.58, p < 0.001 for serum creatinine doubling. Compared with dabigatran, rivaroxaban use had a significantly lowered risk of decline in eGFR to ≤30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.13-0.66, p = 0.003) and risk of doubling of serum creatinine (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.40-0.95, p = 0.030). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of renal function decline appeared to be lower in patients prescribed DOACs versus warfarin.

Oral Anticoagulant Treatment and the Risk of Dementia in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background We compared the dementia incidence rate between users and nonusers of oral anticoagulants (OACs) in a large cohort of primary care patients with atrial fibrillation. Methods and Results We performed a retrospective study using an Australia-wide primary care data set, MedicineInsight. Patients aged ≥18 years and newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2017, and with no recorded history of dementia or stroke were included and followed until December 31, 2018. We applied a propensity score for 1:1 pair matching of baseline covariates and Cox regression for comparing the dementia incidence rates for OAC users and nonusers. Data were analyzed for 18 813 patients with atrial fibrillation (aged 71.9±12.6 years, 47.1% women); 11 419 had a recorded OAC prescription for at least 80% of their follow-up time. During the mean follow-up time of 3.7±2.0 years, 425 patients (2.3%; 95% CI, 2.1%-2.5%) had a documented diagnosis of dementia. After propensity matching, the incidence of dementia was significantly lower in OAC users (hazard ratio [HR], 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44-0.80; P<0.001) compared with nonusers. Direct-acting oral anticoagulant users had a lower incidence of dementia than non-OAC users (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.33-0.73; P<0.001) or warfarin users (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.74; P=0.002). No significant difference was seen between warfarin users and non-OAC users (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.70-1.70; P=0.723). Conclusions In patients with atrial fibrillation, direct-acting oral anticoagulant use may result in a lower incidence of dementia compared with treatment with either warfarin or no anticoagulant.

Switching of oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation: a cohort study using Australian general practice data.

BACKGROUND: We assessed switching patterns of oral anticoagulants (OACs) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in the period following widespread availability of the direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using NPS MedicineWise's MedicineInsight dataset, collected from Australian general practices. Patients with AF who newly commenced an OAC between 1 January 2013 and 30 September 2017 were included. The switching rate was calculated within 12 months post-initiation. Switching rates between OACs were compared, and predictors of switching were identified. RESULTS: We included 15,020 patients who were recorded as having been commenced on warfarin or a DOAC. Overall, 5.7% of patients switched their OAC within 12 months. The switching rates from warfarin, apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban were 9.4%, 2.6%, 8.9% and 4.0%, respectively. Compared to apixaban, commencement on warfarin, dabigatran or rivaroxaban was associated with a higher risk of switching to another OAC. Patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30 mL/min were more likely to switch from DOACs to warfarin and less likely to switch from warfarin, compared to those with an eGFR >60 mL/min. CONCLUSION: There was a low switching rate between OACs in Australian general practice patients with AF. A key determinant of switching appeared to be kidney disease.

Switching of oral anticoagulants in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation: A narrative review.

Approval of direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) was an important milestone, providing a wider range of treatment options and creating the possibility for drug switching after initiation. In addition to improved utilisation of oral anticoagulants (OACs) for stroke prevention, reports of switching among OACs are growing in the literature; switching may influence clinical outcomes, healthcare costs and patient satisfaction. This review aimed to summarise the current literature on the pattern of OAC switching in patients with AF, including reasons for switching and clinical consequences following switching. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus and Embase on 27 June 2020. We included 39 articles published after 2013, following the introduction of apixaban. The review found that switching among OACs was common in clinical practice, significantly varying with the type of OAC. Studies reporting the reason for switching and clinical outcomes were comparatively limited. The decision to switch was often related to safety issues (usually bleeding), poor anticoagulation control and ease of use. Patient characteristics, clinical conditions and drug interactions were found to be associated with switching from OACs. Findings regarding bleeding outcomes following switching were inconsistent, possibly confounded by the rationale for switching and the switching protocol. Noting the limited number of studies included and their relatively short follow-up periods, switching did not have a significant impact on the risk of stroke and other thrombotic outcomes. Further prospective studies are needed to understand better potential rationales for switching and the clinical outcomes.

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa: a scoping review of preparedness, impact and response.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL to search peer-reviewed articles and Google, Google Scholar and preprint sites for grey literature. The scoping review captured studies on either preparedness or impacts or responses associated with COVID-19 or covering one or more of the three topics and guided by Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework. The extracted information was documented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension checklist for scoping reviews. Finally, the resulting data were thematically analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-two eligible studies, of which 6 reported on health system preparedness, 19 described the impacts of COVID-19 on access to general and essential health services and 7 focused on responses taken by the healthcare systems were included. The main setbacks in health system preparation included lack of available health services needed for the pandemic, inadequate resources and equipment, and limited testing ability and surge capacity for COVID-19. Reduced flow of patients and missing scheduled appointments were among the most common impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health system responses identified in this review included the availability of telephone consultations, re-purposing of available services and establishment of isolation centres, and provisions of COVID-19 guidelines in some settings. CONCLUSIONS: The health systems in Africa were inadequately prepared for the pandemic, and its impact was substantial. Responses were slow and did not match the magnitude of the problem. Interventions that will improve and strengthen health system resilience and financing through local, national and global engagement should be prioritised.

Ten-year trends in prescribing of antiarrhythmic drugs in Australian primary care patients with atrial fibrillation.

Despite changes in antiarrhythmic drug (AAD) choice in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), trends in AAD prescribing remain not investigated. We aimed to examine these changes using a nationwide Australian general practice data from 2009 to 2018. Over the 10 years, AAD prescribing in patients with AF decreased, which was mainly due to a reduction in the use of amiodarone, sotalol and digoxin. In contrast, the use of beta-blockers and flecainide increased.

Ten-Year Trends in the Use of Oral Anticoagulants in Australian General Practice Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

Objective: Appropriate use of oral anticoagulants (OACs) reduces the risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The study characterized the prescribing of OACs in people with AF in the Australian primary care setting over 10 years. Design: Retrospective population study. Setting and Participants: We performed 10 sequential cross-sectional analyses of patients with a recorded diagnosis of AF between 2009 and 2018 using national general practice data. The proportion of patients with AF who were prescribed an OAC based on their stroke risk was examined. Primary and secondary outcomes: The primary outcome was the proportion of high stroke risk patients who were prescribed an OAC over a decade. The secondary outcome was variation in OAC prescribing among general practices. Results: The sample size of patients with AF ranged from 9,874 in 2009 to 41,751 in 2018. The proportion who were prescribed an OAC increased from 39.5% (95% CI 38.6-40.5%) in 2009 to 52.0% (95% CI 51.5-52.4%) in 2018 (p for trend < 0.001). During this time, the proportion of patients with AF and high stroke risk who were prescribed an OAC rose from 41.7% (95% CI 40.7-42.8%) to 55.2% (95% CI 54.7-55.8%; p for trend < 0.001) with the direct-acting oral anticoagulants accounting for over three-quarters of usage by 2018. There was substantial variation in OAC prescribing between general practices. In 2018, the proportion of moderate to high stroke risk patients who were prescribed an OAC was 38.6% (95% CI 37.2-40.1%) in the lowest practice site quintiles and 65.6% (95% CI 64.5-66.7%) in the highest practice site quintiles. Conclusions: Over the 10 years, OAC prescribing in high stroke risk patients with AF increased by one-third. There was considerable variation in OAC prescribing between general practices.

COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. METHODS: Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km. RESULTS: This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country's border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited. CONCLUSION: This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.

Stroke risk reassessment and oral anticoagulant initiation in primary care patients with atrial fibrillation: A ten-year follow-up.

AIM: To examine the change in stroke risk over time and determine the proportion of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who were initiated on an oral anticoagulant (OAC) as their stroke risk increased from low/moderate to high, using the Australian general practice data set, MedicineInsight. METHODS: A total of 2296 patients diagnosed with AF between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2008, aged 18 years or older and not initiated on an OAC before 2009, were included. We assessed the change in stroke risk and the proportion of patients who had a recorded prescription of an OAC, each year from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2018. RESULTS: At baseline, 23.9%, 22.9% and 53.2% were categorised as being at low (score = 0), moderate (score = 1) and high stroke risk (score ≥ 2), respectively, using the sexless CHA2 DS2 -VASc (CHA2 DS2 -VA) score. Overall, the CHA2 DS2 -VA score increased by a mean of 1.34 (95% confidence interval, 1.29-1.39) points over the study period. Nearly two-thirds of patients (65%, 412/632) whose stroke risk changed from baseline low/moderate to high were subsequently prescribed an OAC. The median (interquartile range) lag time from becoming high stroke risk to having OAC initiation was 2 (5) years. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly one-third of patients reclassified as being at high risk of stroke during the study period were not prescribed OAC therapy. Furthermore, the delay in OAC initiation following classification as being at high risk was a median of 2 years, suggesting that more frequent stroke reassessment is needed.

The global prevalence and trend of human intestinal carriage of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli in the community.

OBJECTIVES: Intestinal colonization by ESBL Escherichia coli and its association with community-acquired MDR infections is of great concern. This review determined the worldwide prevalence of human faecal ESBL E. coli carriage and its trend in the community over the past two decades. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed, EMBASE and Google Scholar to retrieve articles published between 1 January 2000 and 13 February 2020 that contained data on the prevalence of faecal carriage of ESBL E. coli among healthy individuals. A cumulative (for the whole period) meta-analysis was used to estimate the global and regional pooled prevalence rates. Articles were grouped into study periods of 3 years, and subgroup meta-analyses were undertaken to examine the global pooled prevalence over time. RESULTS: Sixty-two articles covering 29 872 healthy persons were included in this meta-analysis. The cumulative (2003-18) global pooled prevalence of ESBL E. coli intestinal carriage in the community was 16.5% (95% CI 14.3%-18.7%; P  <  0.001). The pooled prevalence showed an upward trend, increasing from 2.6% (95% CI 1.6%-4.0%) in 2003-05 to 21.1% (95% CI 15.8%-27.0%) in 2015-18. Over the whole period, the highest carriage rate was observed in South-East Asia (27%; 95% CI 2.9%-51.3%), while the lowest occurred in Europe (6.0%; 95% CI 4.6%-7.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Globally, an 8-fold increase in the intestinal carriage rate of ESBL E. coli in the community has occurred over the past two decades. Prevention of its spread may require new therapeutic and public health strategies.