ABSTRACT
Background: We investigated the hypotheses that mean population body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC) and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are correlated with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) incidence rates. Methods: Population-based mean incidence rates for T1DM in children aged ≤14 years participating in the World Health Organization Diabetes Mondial (DiaMond) project were compared with population mean values for BMI, SBP, TC and FPG, as well as prevalence rates for T2DM as reported by The Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors Chronic Diseases Collaborating Group, using Spearman's rank correlation and multiple regression analysis. Results: The mean incidence rate for T1DM in boys was significantly correlated with country mean BMI, SBP and TC in men and mean TC in women, and negatively correlated with the country incidence of T2DM in either gender. We also found significant correlations between mean incidence rates of T1DM in girls and mean BMI, SBP and TC in men and mean TC in women. In multiple regression analyses, mean TC emerged as the sole significant predictor for T1DM in both boys (P < 0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.393) and girls (P < 0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.372). Conclusion: Population mean total cholesterol is a significant predictor for country incidence of type 1 diabetes in both boys and girls. This association may fuel the rising incidence rates of type 1 diabetes reported in many countries.
