Revealing the evolution of spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion using mathematical modelling and emerging hotspot analysis.

The rapid expansion of cities in developing countries has led to many environmental problems, and the mechanism of urban expansion (UE), as a more complex human-land coupled system, has always been a difficult issue to research. This paper introduces a new approach by establishing an analytical framework for spatiotemporal pattern mining, exemplified by studying the urban growth of Changsha City from 1990 to 2019. Initially, an emerging hotspot analysis model (EHA) is employed to examine the spatiotemporal changes of urban growth on a macro scale. Mathematical models are subsequently utilized to quantify the correlations between urban expansion and selected infrastructural and topographical factors. Building on these findings, the paper constructs mathematical models to further quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of various urban sprawl patterns across different regions, aiming to elucidate and quantify the significant variations in UE over time and space. The study reveals that, as an emerging city, Changsha's hotspots of urban expansion prior to 2003 were primarily concentrated in the city centre, subsequently spreading to the periphery. The radial influence of metro stations on UE is notably less than that of railway stations-approximately 3 km versus 8 km-and the impact diminishes rapidly before gradually tapering off. Moreover, UE in Changsha predominantly occurs on slopes with gradients ranging from 1.1° to 7.5°, and significant development capacity is observed at elevations between 36.1 m and 78.3 m above sea level, with a tendency for urban sprawl to migrate to lower elevations. The paper also identifies three distinct patterns of urban expansion across different regions: an initial slow-growth phase, followed by a rapid escalation to a peak, and subsequently a swift decline to near stagnation. Additionally, it highlights a significant correlation between the proportion of built-up areas at the micro-regional scale and the stages of UE. This correlation was quantitatively analysed by constructing a logistic function, which demonstrated a robust fit that effectively captures spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the dynamics of UE. These insights enhance the selection of drivers in urban simulation models and deepen the understanding of the complex dynamics that influence urban development.

Optimization of state-of-the-art fuzzy-metaheuristic ANFIS-based machine learning models for flood susceptibility prediction mapping in the Middle Ganga Plain, India.

This study is an attempt to quantitatively test and compare novel advanced-machine learning algorithms in terms of their performance in achieving the goal of predicting flood susceptible areas in a low altitudinal range, sub-tropical floodplain environmental setting, like that prevailing in the Middle Ganga Plain (MGP), India. This part of the Ganga floodplain region, which under the influence of undergoing active tectonic regime related subsidence, is the hotbed of annual flood disaster. This makes the region one of the best natural laboratories to test the flood susceptibility models for establishing a universalization of such models in low relief highly flood prone areas. Based on highly sophisticated flood inventory archived for this region, and 12 flood conditioning factors viz. annual rainfall, soil type, stream density, distance from stream, distance from road, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), altitude, slope aspect, slope, curvature, land use/land cover, and geomorphology, an advanced novel hybrid model Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and three metaheuristic models-based ensembles with ANFIS namely ANFIS-GA (Genetic Algorithm), ANFIS-DE (Differential Evolution), and ANFIS-PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization), have been applied for zonation of the flood susceptible areas. The flood inventory dataset, prepared by collected flood samples, were apportioned into 70:30 classes to prepare training and validation datasets. One independent validation method, the Area-Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) Curve, and other 11 cut-off-dependent model evaluation metrices have helped to conclude that the ANIFS-GA has outperformed other three models with highest success rate AUC = 0.922 and prediction rate AUC = 0.924. The accuracy was also found to be highest for ANFIS-GA during training (0.886) & validation (0.883). Better performance of ANIFS-GA than the individual models as well as some ensemble models suggests and warrants further study in this topoclimatic environment using other classes of susceptibility models. This will further help establishing a benchmark model with capability of highest accuracy and sensitivity performance in the similar topographic and climatic setting taking assumption of the quality of input parameters as constant.

Discovery of recurring slope lineae candidates in Mawrth Vallis, Mars.

Several interpretations of recurring slope lineae (RSL) have related RSL to the potential presence of transient liquid water on Mars. Such probable signs of liquid water have implications for Mars exploration in terms of rover safety, planetary protection during rover operations, and the current habitability of the planet. Mawrth Vallis has always been a prime target to be considered for Mars rover missions due to its rich mineralogy. Most recently, Mawrth Vallis was one of the two final candidates selected by the European Space Agency as a landing site for the ExoMars 2020 mission. Therefore, all surface features and landforms in Mawrth Vallis that may be of special interest in terms of scientific goals, rover safety, and operations must be scrutinised to better assess it for future Mars missions. Here, we report on the initial detection of RSL candidates in two craters of Mawrth Vallis. The new sightings were made outside of established RSL regions and further prompt the inclusion of a new geographical region within the RSL candidate group. Our inferences on the RSL candidates are based on several morphological and geophysical evidences and analogies: (i) the dimensions of the RSL candidates are consistent with confirmed mid-latitude RSL; (ii) albedo and thermal inertia values are comparable to those of other mid-latitude RSL sites; and (iii) features are found in a summer season image and on the steep and warmest slopes. These results denote the plausible presence of transient liquid brines close to the previously proposed landing ellipse of the ExoMars rover, rendering this site particularly relevant to the search of life. Further investigations of Mawrth Vallis carried out at higher spatial and temporal resolutions are needed to identify more of such features at local scales to maximize the scientific return from the future Mars rovers, to prevent probable biological contamination during rover operations, to evade damage to rover components as brines can be highly corrosive, and to quantify the ability of the regolith at mid-latitudes to capture atmospheric water which is relevant for in-situ-resource utilization.

Heterogeneity in topographic control on velocities of Western Himalayan glaciers.

Studies of the seasonal and annual patterns of glacier velocities improve our understanding of the ice volume, topography, responses to climate change, and surge events of glaciers. Such studies are especially relevant and equally rare for the Himalayan glaciers, which supply many rivers that sustain some of the most heavily populated mountainous regions in the world. In particular, the control of the hypsometric distribution of geomorphometric parameters, such as slope, aspect, and curvature, on the dynamics of Himalayan glaciers have never been studied so far, at the river basin scale. Here, we present the degree to which topographic and hypsometric parameters affect the seasonal and annual average flow velocities of 112 glaciers in the Baspa River basin in the Western Indian Himalaya by analysing Global Land Ice Velocity Extraction from Landsat 8 (GoLIVE) datasets for the years 2013-2017. We observe, (i) significant heterogeneity in topographic controls on the velocities of these glaciers, (ii) elevation and the seasons play important roles in regulating the degree to which morphometric parameters (slope, aspect, and curvature) affect these velocities, (iii) a possible polythermal regime promoting both sliding and deformational forms of motion in a majority of these glaciers, and (iv) a detailed analysis of complex topographic controls within various elevation zones using a novel hypso-morphometric approach. These findings can help us to better model the dynamics of Himalayan glaciers and their responses to the future climatic scenarios. The inferences also suggest the need to incorporate dynamic topography in glacio-hydrological models in the wake of constant glacial evolutions.

Himalayan glaciers experienced significant mass loss during later phases of little ice age.

To date, there is a gap in the data about the state and mass balance of glaciers in the climate-sensitive subtropical regions during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Here, based on an unprecedented tree-ring sampling coverage, we present the longest reconstructed mass balance record for the Western Himalayan glaciers, dating to 1615. Our results confirm that the later phase of LIA was substantially briefer and weaker in the Himalaya than in the Arctic and subarctic regions. Furthermore, analysis of the time-series of the mass-balance against other time-series shows clear evidence of the existence of (i) a significant glacial decay and a significantly weaker magnitude of glaciation during the latter half of the LIA; (ii) a weak regional mass balance dependence on either the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) taken in isolation, but a considerable combined influence of both of them during the LIA; and (iii) in addition to anthropogenic climate change, the strong effect from the increased yearly concurrence of extremely high TSI with El Niño over the past five decades, resulting in severe glacial mass loss. The generated mass balance time-series can serve as a source of reliable reconstructed data to the scientific community.

Martian slope streaks as plausible indicators of transient water activity.

Slope streaks have been frequently observed in the equatorial, low thermal inertia and dusty regions of Mars. The reason behind their formation remains unclear with proposed hypotheses for both dry and wet mechanisms. Here, we report an up-to-date distribution and morphometric investigation of Martian slope streaks. We find: (i) a remarkable coexistence of the slope streak distribution with the regions on Mars with high abundances of water-equivalent hydrogen, chlorine, and iron; (ii) favourable thermodynamic conditions for transient deliquescence and brine development in the slope streak regions; (iii) a significant concurrence of slope streak distribution with the regions of enhanced atmospheric water vapour concentration, thus suggestive of a present-day regolith-atmosphere water cycle; and (iv) terrain preferences and flow patterns supporting a wet mechanism for slope streaks. These results suggest a strong local regolith-atmosphere water coupling in the slope streak regions that leads to the formation of these fluidised features. Our conclusions can have profound astrobiological, habitability, environmental, and planetary protection implications.