Alcohol Use in Liver Transplant Recipients With Alcohol-related Liver Disease: A Comparative Assessment of Relapse Prediction Models.

BACKGROUND: The selection of liver transplant (LT) candidates with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is influenced by the risk of alcohol relapse (AR), yet the ability to predict AR is limited. We evaluate psychosocial factors associated with post-LT AR and compare the performance of high-risk alcoholism risk (HRAR), sustained alcohol use post-LT (SALT), and the Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplantation (SIPAT) scores in predicting relapse. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of ALD patients undergoing LT from 2015 to 2021 at a single US transplant center was performed. Risk factors associated with post-LT AR were evaluated and test characteristics of 3 prediction models were compared. RESULTS: Of 219 ALD LT recipients, 23 (11%) had AR during a median study follow-up of 37.5 mo. On multivariate analysis, comorbid psychiatric illness (odds ratio 5.22) and continued alcohol use after advice from a health care provider (odds ratio 3.8) were found to be significantly associated with post-LT AR. On sensitivity analysis, SIPAT of 30 was optimal on discriminating between ALD LT recipients with and without post-LT AR. SIPAT outperformed both the HRAR and SALT scores (c-statistic 0.67 versus 0.59 and 0.62, respectively) in identifying post-LT AR. However, all scores had poor positive predictive value (<25%). CONCLUSIONS: AR after LT is associated with comorbid psychiatric illness and lack of heeding health care provider advice to abstain from alcohol. Although SIPAT outperformed the HRAR and SALT scores in predicting AR, all are poor predictors. The current tools to predict post-LT AR should not be used to exclude LT candidacy.

Clinical Utility of an Increase in Magnetic Resonance Elastography in Predicting Fibrosis Progression in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cross-sectional studies have shown that magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is accurate in the noninvasive detection of advanced fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, there are limited data on the longitudinal association between an increase in liver stiffness on MRE and fibrosis progression in NAFLD. Therefore, using a well-characterized prospective cohort of patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD, we aimed to examine the longitudinal association between a 15% increase in liver stiffness on MRE and fibrosis progression in NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This prospective cohort study included 102 patients (62.7% women) with biopsy-proven NAFLD who underwent contemporaneous MRE and liver biopsy at baseline followed by a repeat paired liver biopsy and MRE assessment. The primary outcome was odds of fibrosis progression by one or more stage as assessed by the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network histologic scoring system. The mean (±SD) of age and body mass index (BMI) were 52 (±14) years and 32.6 (±5.3) kg/m2 , respectively. The median time interval between the two paired assessments was 1.4 years (interquartile range 2.15 years). The number of patients with fibrosis stages 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 was 27, 36, 12, 17, and 10, respectively. In unadjusted analysis, a 15% increase in MRE was associated with increased odds of histologic fibrosis progression (odds ratio [OR], 3.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-10.76; P = 0.0248). These findings remained clinically and statistically significant even after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, and BMI (adjusted OR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.10-10.31; P = 0.0339). A 15% increase in MRE was the strongest predictor of progression to advanced fibrosis (OR, 4.90; 95% CI, 1.35-17.84; P = 0.0159). CONCLUSIONS: A 15% increase in liver stiffness on MRE may be associated with histologic fibrosis progression and progression from early fibrosis to advanced fibrosis.

Collagen Formation Assessed by N-Terminal Propeptide of Type 3 Procollagen Is a Heritable Trait and Is Associated With Liver Fibrosis Assessed by Magnetic Resonance Elastography.

N-terminal propeptide of type 3 procollagen (PRO-C3) is a biomarker of liver fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study examines the association between PRO-C3 concentration and liver fibrosis assessed by magnetic resonance elastography (MRE)-measured stiffness (MRE-stiffness) and the heritability of PRO-C3 concentration in a cohort of twins and families with and without NAFLD. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of a well-characterized prospective cohort of 306 participants, including 44 probands with NAFLD-cirrhosis and their 72 first-degree relatives, 24 probands with NAFLD without advanced fibrosis and their 24 first-degree relatives, and 72 controls without NAFLD and their 72 first-degree relatives. Liver steatosis was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction, and liver fibrosis was assessed by MRE-stiffness. Serum PRO-C3 was assessed by competitive, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We assessed the familial correlation of PRO-C3 concentration, the shared gene effects between PRO-C3 concentration and liver steatosis and fibrosis, and the association between PRO-C3 concentration and genetic variants in the patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing 3 (PNPLA3), transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 (TM6SF2), membrane-bound O-acyltransferase domain-containing (MBOAT), and glucokinase regulator (CGKR) genes. In multivariable-adjusted models including age, sex, body mass index, and ethnicity, serum PRO-C3 correlated strongly with liver fibrosis (r2  = 0.50, P < 0.001) and demonstrated robust heritability (h2 , 0.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.07, 0.59; P = 0.016). PRO-C3 concentration and steatosis had a strong genetic correlation (shared genetic determination: 0.62; 95% CI, 0.236, 1.001; P = 0.002), whereas PRO-C3 concentration and fibrosis had a strong environmental correlation (shared environmental determination: 0.55; 95% CI, 0.317, 0.717; P < 0.001). PRO-C3 concentrations were higher in carriers of the TM6SF2 rs58542926-T allele compared with noncarriers: 15.7 (± 10.5) versus 10.8 (± 5.7) ng/L (P = 0.047). Conclusion: Serum PRO-C3 correlates with MRE-assessed fibrosis, is heritable, shares genetic correlation with liver steatosis and shares environmental correlation with liver fibrosis. PRO-C3 concentration appears to be linked to both fibrosis and steatosis and increased in carriers of the TM6SF2 rs58542926 risk allele.