ABSTRACT
Although there is sufficient evidence in the epidemiological literature that antiretroviral treatment (ART) reduces child mortality, there is limited evidence of its effect in the socio-economic determinants of child mortality literature. Furthermore, evidence on the effect of child focused unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) on child mortality is limited, especially in the African context. Using South Africa's provincial level data over the period 2001 to 2019, we evaluate the effect of ART and child focused UCTs on child mortality. We use the two-stage instrumental variable mean group estimator. We find that ART reduces child mortality. Moreover, we find an inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship between UCTs and child mortality that is contingent to the level of cash transfer coverage. Our analyses also reveal that UCTs improve the effect of ART on child mortality by enhancing access and adherence to treatment. While the focus of our analyses was on the child mortality effects of ART and UCTs, our findings reaffirm the well-documented impacts of factors such as public health expenditure, HIV/AIDS, female education, and health worker density on child mortality. Collectively, the combination of high ART and UCTs coverage, increased public health expenditure, enhanced female education, and improved health worker density, represents value for money for policymakers and funders. These areas should be prioritised to improve child well-being.
ABSTRACT
This paper investigates the effect of under-five mortality, child support grant (CSG) coverage and the rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility in South Africa. The study employs the quality-quantity trade-off framework to analyse the direct and indirect factors affecting fertility using the two stage least squares fixed effects instrumental variable approach. The analysis uses balanced panel data covering nine provinces from 2001-2016. This period was characterised by significant increases in the child support grant coverage and ART coverage. Furthermore, this period was characterised by a significant decline in the under-five mortality rate. We find no evidence to support the hypothesis that increases in the CSG coverage are associated with an increase in fertility. This finding aligns with previous literature suggesting that there are no perverse incentives for childbearing associated with the child support grant. On the other hand, results indicate that an increase in ART coverage is associated with an increase in fertility. Results also show that a decrease in under-five mortality is associated with a decline in fertility over the sample period. HIV prevalence, education, real GDP per capita, marriage prevalence and contraceptive prevalence are also important determinants of fertility in South Africa. Although the scale up of ART has improved health outcomes, it also appears to have increased fertility in HIV-positive women. The ART programme should therefore be linked with further family planning initiatives to minimise unintended pregnancies.
