Analysis on the characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution and aggregation trend of early COVID-19 in mainland China.

To analyze the spatio-temporal aggregation of COVID-19 in mainland China within 20 days after the closure of Wuhan city, and provide a theoretical basis for formulating scientific prevention measures in similar major public health events in the future. Draw a distribution map of the cumulative number of COVID-19 by inverse distance weighted interpolation; analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of the daily number of COVID-19 in mainland China by spatio-temporal autocorrelation analysis; use the spatio-temporal scanning statistics to detect the spatio-temporal clustering area of the daily number of new diagnosed cases. The cumulative number of diagnosed cases obeyed the characteristics of geographical proximity and network proximity to Hubei. Hubei and its neighboring provinces were most affected, and the impact in the eastern China was more dramatic than the impact in the western; the global spatio-temporal Moran's I index showed an overall downward trend. Since the 10th day of the closure of Wuhan, the epidemic in China had been under effective control, and more provinces had shifted into low-incidence areas. The number of new diagnosed cases had gradually decreased, showing a random distribution in time and space (P< 0.1), and no clusters were formed. Conclusion: the spread of COVID-19 had obvious spatial-temporal aggregation. China's experience shows that isolation city strategy can greatly contain the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Influential factors and spatial-temporal distribution of tuberculosis in mainland China.

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that threatens human safety. Mainland China is an area with a high incidence of tuberculosis, and the task of tuberculosis prevention and treatment is arduous. This paper aims to study the impact of seven influencing factors and spatial-temporal distribution of the relative risk (RR) of tuberculosis in mainland China using the spatial-temporal distribution model and INLA algorithm. The relative risks and confidence intervals (CI) corresponding to average relative humidity, monthly average precipitation, monthly average sunshine duration and monthly per capita GDP were 1.018 (95% CI 1.001-1.034), 1.014 (95% CI 1.006-1.023), 1.026 (95% CI 1.014-1.039) and 1.025 (95% CI 1.011-1.040). The relative risk for average temperature and pressure were 0.956 (95% CI 0.942-0.969) and 0.767 (95% CI 0.664-0.875). Spatially, the two provinces with the highest relative risks are Xinjiang and Guizhou, and the remaining provinces with higher relative risks were mostly concentrated in the Northwest and South China regions. Temporally, the relative risk decreased year by year from 2013 to 2015. It was higher from February to May each year and was most significant in March. It decreased from June to December. Average relative humidity, monthly average precipitation, monthly average sunshine duration and monthly per capita GDP had positive effects on the relative risk of tuberculosis. The average temperature and pressure had negative effects. The average wind speed had no significant effect. Mainland China should adapt measures to local conditions and develop tuberculosis prevention and control strategies based on the characteristics of different regions and time.