Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of African horse sickness virus from 2020 to 2060.

African horse sickness is a vector-borne, non-contagious and highly infectious disease of equines caused by African horse sickness viruses (AHSv) that mainly affect horses. The occurrence of the disease causes huge economic impacts because of its high fatality rate, trade ban and disease control costs. In the planning of vectors and vector-borne diseases like AHS, the application of Ecological niche models (ENM) used an enormous contribution in precisely delineating the suitable habitats of the vector. We developed an ENM to delineate the global suitability of AHSv based on retrospective outbreak data records from 2005 to 2019. The model was developed in an R software program using the Biomod2 package with an Ensemble modeling technique. Predictive environmental variables like mean diurnal range, mean precipitation of driest month(mm), precipitation seasonality (cv), mean annual maximum temperature (oc), mean annual minimum temperature (oc), mean precipitation of warmest quarter(mm), mean precipitation of coldest quarter (mm), mean annual precipitation (mm), solar radiation (kj /day), elevation/altitude (m), wind speed (m/s) were used to develop the model. From these variables, solar radiation, mean maximum temperature, average annual precipitation, altitude and precipitation seasonality contributed 36.83%, 17.1%, 14.34%, 7.61%, and 6.4%, respectively. The model depicted the sub-Sahara African continent as the most suitable area for the virus. Mainly Senegal, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Malawi are African countries identified as highly suitable countries for the virus. Besides, OIE-listed disease-free countries like India, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia have been found suitable for the virus. This model can be used as an epidemiological tool in planning control and surveillance of diseases nationally or internationally.

Human and bovine tuberculosis knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) among cattle owners in Ethiopia.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a re-emerging disease occurring worldwide, resulting in multi-billion-dollar loss and human death annually. The situation is worse in developing countries like Ethiopia, where lower knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) of the people is poor about the disease. A questionnaire-based cross-sectional study was conducted to assess livestock owners' KAP level towards human and bovine Tuberculosis in Gondar, Ethiopia. A total of 349 study participants were addressed through a face-to-face interview. Descriptive statistics and Pearson's chi-squares analysis were used to analyze the data and observe the association between outcome (KAP level) and predictor variables (sociodemographic characteristics). Out of the 349 respondents, 223 (63.9%) were males, while 126 (36.1%) were females. The KAP measuring interview indicated that 97.4% of the participants are aware of human tuberculosis, while only 84 (24.1%) know about bovine tuberculosis cause and mode of transmission. Inhalation was reported as the main route of transmission for human TB (41.1%) whereas, 50% of the respondent mentioned inhalation, contact, and ingestion of raw animal products as the main route of TB transmission from animal to human. Among those who have heard of bovine tuberculosis, only 56 (66.7%) of respondents consider bovine tuberculosis as a significant threat to public health. The study showed there is a lower KAP on bovine TB among cattle owners in the study area. Therefore, community health education about the impact of the disease, transmission, control, and prevention should be integrated with one health-oriented education and research to eradicate the disease from the country.

Global ecological niche modelling of current and future distribution of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRv) with an ensemble modelling algorithm.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious transboundary viral disease of sheep and goats that negatively impacted the farmers and pastoralists' livelihood in Africa and Asia. To overcome the disease's consequences, the OIE and FAO are collaborating efforts to eradicate the disease once and for all. We developed a predictive model that delineates suitable territories for the virus globally in support of this eradication programme. To achieve this, we used an ecological niche modelling with an ensemble algorithm. AUC-ROC curve, true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa values were used to evaluate the model's performance. A TSS value greater than 0.7 was used to pool outputs of the nine model. The ensemble model has better performance than individual models by every evaluation metrics (Kappa = 0.82, TSS = 0.88 and ROC = 0.99). Annual minimum temperature (24.92%), annual maximum temperature (21.37%), goat density (18.03%) and solar radiation (14.04%) have the highest overall contribution in the ensemble model. The model indicates that India, Mongolia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, Angola, Nigeria, DRC, Ghana, Sierra Leon, Southern Spain, France, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy, Armenia and Azerbaijan are highly suitable for PPRv. In 2040, suitable territories for PPRv will diminish, indicating the odds are with us in eradicating disease by 2030. We believe that this model can be used as an epidemiological tool to facilitate the global eradication programme of the disease set by the OIE and FAO.

Anthrax in the Amhara regional state of Ethiopia; spatiotemporal analysis and environmental suitability modeling with an ensemble approach.

Anthrax is one of the most neglected tropical disease affecting humans, livestock, and wildlife worldwide. The disease is caused by soil-borne spore-forming bacteria called Bacillus anthracis. A machine learning algorithm with the biomod2 package of R software was used to develop a predictive map for the Amhara regional state of Ethiopia. One hundred twenty-eight georeferenced confirmed outbreak reports of anthrax in livestock and 11 bioclimatic, eight soil characteristics, and three livestock density variables were used to train the model. The algorithm was set to run 3-fold with a total of 27 outputs for the nine selected models. An ensemble model was developed with ROC evaluation metrics set at 0.8. The ensemble model showed an improved performance than the individual models (KAPPA, TSS, and ROC values of 0.86, 0.93, and 0.99, respectively). Variables like annual precipitation (22.51 %), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.17 %), precipitation of wettest month (11.61 %), cattle density (9.67 %), sheep density (6.6 %), annual maximum temperature (6.17 %), altitude/elevation (5.24 %), and sand content (4.83 %) contributed the highest share in the ensemble model. The predicted suitable areas were primarily in the Central and Southern parts of the region. West Gojam and South Gondar zones were found highly suitable; while parts of Waghemira, North Wollo, and South Wollo were not significantly suitable. Besides, East Gojam, North Gondar, and Awi administrative zones were also reasonably suitable to Bacillus anthracis. The study can be used as a basis in the planning of prevention and control approaches of anthrax outbreaks in the region. Administrative zones like West Gojam, South Gondar, Awi, and East Gojam have to be prioritized as a risky-areas in the planning of preventive measures of anthrax in the region.

Rabies: Knowledge, Attitude and Practices in and Around South Gondar, North West Ethiopia.

A cross-sectional study was conducted from February 2017 to April 2017 to assess knowledge, attitude and practices of the community towards rabies in south Gondar zone, Ethiopia. A structured closed ended questionnaire was used to collect the data through face to face interviews among 384 respondents. The data were then analyzed using SPSS statistical software version 20. Almost all (91.5%) surveyed individuals were aware of rabies. Bite was known as mode of rabies transmission by majority of the respondents (71.1%) with considerable means of transmission through wound contact with saliva of diseased animals. Sudden change of behavior was described as a major clinical sign of rabies in animals by the majority of the respondents. Nearly half of the respondents (48.2%) believed that consumption of rabid animal's meat can be a medicine for human rabies and majority of the respondents (66.7%) indicated crossing a river before 40 days after dog bite increases severity of the disease. More than eighty percent of the respondents prefer traditional medicines for treating rabies in humans. In total, 51% of the respondents had poor Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices (KAP) level about the disease rabies. Educational status (χ2 = 21.152), Monthly income (χ2 = 23.059), Sex (χ2 = 11.249), source of information (χ2 = 8.594) and Residence (χ2 = 4.109) were significantly associated with KAP scores (p < 0.05). Education and awareness creation should be given to increase communities KAP about the disease with special focus to traditional healers.

Bovine cysticercosis in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence from abattoir-based surveys.

Ethiopia is well known for its huge livestock resource that stands number one in Africa and 10th in the world. However, cattle production is constrained by inadequate nutrition, disease, lack of support services and inadequate information. This systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence of C. bovis in Ethiopia aims to provide a national level prevalence of the parasite from reports conducted in different parts of the country. Due to the expected variation between studies, a random-effects meta-analysis was carried out using the total sample size and number of positives (effect size and standard error of the effect size). Individual study prevalence estimates ranged from 0% to 20% with an overall pooled prevalence of 7% (95% CI = 5%-8%). Studies weighted approximately equal with weights on individual studies ranging from 2% to 2.6% due to high heterogeneity between studies. The meta-analysis indicated that between-study variability was high (τ2 = 0.001; heterogeneity I2 = 99.20% with Heterogeneity chi-square = 4974.9 and, an associated p-value of 0.01). This parasite is indicated to be one of the causes of organ condemnation causing losses of million dollars annually in the country.

Assessment of risk factors and isolation of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli from bovine subclinical mastitic milk in and around Gondar, Northwest Ethiopia.

A cross-sectional study with simple random sampling approach was conducted from November 2017 to May 2018 with the objectives of estimating the prevalence of subclinical mastitis with its associated risk factors and to identify and isolate Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli from mastitic milk in and around Gondar town, Ethiopia. The study was conducted on 334 lactating cows selected from 70 smallholder dairy farms. California mastitis test (CMT) and bacteriological culture methods were used as diagnostic tools. From 334 cows examined, 114 (34.1%) and from 1054 quarters examined, 238 (17.8%) were positive for subclinical mastitis using CMT test. Adult and old cows were 3.681 (95% CI = 1.541, 8.788) and 15.044 (95% CI = 3.051, 74.174) times more likely to have a chance of contracting mastitis than young cows respectively. Cow's having 4-7 calving were 88.9% (OR = 0.111, 95% CI = 0.29, 0.423) less likely to have a chance of contracting mastitis than cows having ≤ 3 calving by keeping another factors constant. Mid-lactating cows were 63.4% (OR = 0.366, 95% CI = 0.150, 0.890) less likely to have a chance of contracting mastitis than cows in the early lactation stage. Crossbreed cows were also 79.1% (OR = 0.209, 95% CI = 0.046-0.948) less likely to have a chance of contracting mastitis than local breed cows. The odds of subclinical mastitis were 21.81 (95% CI = 4.618, 103.002) times higher in cows having tick infestation compared to cows without tick infestation and animals kept in good housing were 23% (OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.027, 0.197) less likely to have mastitis than cows kept in poor housing. The likelihood of mastitis occurrence was 3.372 (95% CI = 0.865, 13.141) times higher in cows managed in intensive farming system than semi-intensive farming system. Out of fifty CMT positive milk samples, proportion of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli was 17 (34%) and 8 (16%) respectively. As a conclusion, subclinical mastitis is the main important health constraints of dairy cows in the study area. Therefore, management, housing, and environmental sanitation should be improved.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of prevalence of Escherichia coli in foods of animal origin in Ethiopia.

Escherichia coli is one of the causes of gastrointestinal diseases worldwide causing millions of illness annually. The occurrence of Escherichia coli in foods of animal origin in Ethiopia is arguably high due to many reasons like illegal slaughtering of animals in open fields, unhygienic slaughter practices in the abattoirs, and the risk of disease due to this organism is high because of a widespread tradition of raw meat consumption. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to pool estimates of the prevalence of the organism in different foods of animal origin which is the first of its kind in the country. The literature search was conducted to identify all published articles reporting the prevalence of Escherichia coli in foods of animal origin. From all screened articles, 30 studies were eligible for final systematic review and meta-analysis. Because substantial heterogeneity was expected, random-effects meta-analyses were carried out to pool the prevalence of the organism from different foods of animal origin. The result indicated that between-study variability was high (τ2 = 0.00; heterogeneity I2 = 96.77% with Heterogeneity chi-square = 1298.92, a degree of freedom = 42 and a P-value of = 0.001) with the overall random pooled prevalence of 15% (95% CI = 13%-17%) in foods of animal origin. The result of meta-regression showed diagnosis method used, sample size and study year had contributed significantly to the heterogeneity of studies. This systematic review and meta-analysis showed the level of contamination of foods of animal origin in Ethiopia is high indicating the need for immediate planning of mitigation strategies and detection methods to reduce its level and impact throughout the country.