Alternative Formulations of Trap Lures for Operational Detection, Population Monitoring, and Outbreak Forecasting of Southern Pine Beetle in the United States.

The southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) is a major destructive pest of Pinus L. In the southeastern United States, numbers of this species and a major predator, Thanasimus dubius (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Cleridae), captured during an annual springtime trapping survey are used to make forecasts of the likelihood and severity of an outbreak during the following summer. We investigated responses by both species to six lure formulations to evaluate their suitability for the survey and allow integration of historical data sets produced with differing lure compositions. Trapping trials were performed at four locations across three states (Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama) during spring, and at these and one additional location (North Carolina) in fall 2016. All lures included the pheromone component frontalin. Southern pine beetle preferred lures that additionally included the pheromone component endo-brevicomin and turpentine as a source of host odors (rather than a 7:3 mixture of monoterpenes alpha- and beta-pinene). Thanasimus dubius displayed little discrimination among lure compositions. Lure preferences by southern pine beetle did not differ significantly among locations in spring but were influenced by season. Gas chromatography (GC)-electroantennographic detection analyses with southern pine beetle and GC-mass spectrometry identified numerous known and potential semiochemicals that distinguished volatiles released by the tested host odor devices. The lure combination that included endo-brevicomin and alpha/beta-pinene is recommended for the trapping survey because of its high sensitivity for southern pine beetle and potential for greater data integrity resulting from its reproducible composition.

Temperature extremes, density dependence, and southern pine beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) population dynamics in east Texas.

Previous studies of the southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm., established that its population in east Texas responds to a delayed density-dependent process, whereas no clear role of climate has been determined. We tested two biological hypotheses for the influence of extreme temperatures on annual southern pine beetle population growth in the context of four alternative hypotheses for density-dependent population regulation. The significance of climate variables and their interaction with population regulation depended on the model of density dependence. The best model included both direct and delayed density dependence of a cubic rather than linear form. Population growth declined with the number of days exceeding 32 degrees C, temperatures previously reported to reduce brood survival. Density dependence also changed with the number of hot days. Growth was highest in years with average minimum winter temperatures. Severely cold winters may reduce survival, whereas warm winters may reduce the efficiency of spring infestation formation. Whereas most previous studies have incorporated climate as an additive effect on growth, we found that the form of delayed density dependence changed with the number of days >32 degrees C. The interaction between temperature and regulation, a potentially common phenomenon in ecology, may explain why southern pine beetle outbreaks do not occur at perfectly regular intervals. Factors other than climate, such as forest management and direct suppression, may have contributed significantly to the timing, severity, and eventual cessation of outbreaks since the mid-1950s.

Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis.

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by approximately 1-4 degrees C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3 degrees C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3 degrees C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.