Plio-Pleistocene environmental variability in Africa and its implications for mammalian evolution.

Understanding the climatic drivers of environmental variability (EV) during the Plio-Pleistocene and EV's influence on mammalian macroevolution are two outstanding foci of research in African paleoclimatology and evolutionary biology. The potential effects of EV are especially relevant for testing the variability selection hypothesis, which predicts a positive relationship between EV and speciation and extinction rates in fossil mammals. Addressing these questions is stymied, however, by 1) a lack of multiple comparable EV records of sufficient temporal resolution and duration, and 2) the incompleteness of the mammalian fossil record. Here, we first compile a composite history of Pan-African EV spanning the Plio-Pleistocene, which allows us to explore which climatic variables influenced EV. We find that EV exhibits 1) a long-term trend of increasing variability since ∼3.7 Ma, coincident with rising variability in global ice volume and sea surface temperatures around Africa, and 2) a 400-ky frequency correlated with seasonal insolation variability. We then estimate speciation and extinction rates for fossil mammals from eastern Africa using a method that accounts for sampling variation. We find no statistically significant relationship between EV and estimated speciation or extinction rates across multiple spatial scales. These findings are inconsistent with the variability selection hypothesis as applied to macroevolutionary processes.

Progressive aridification in East Africa over the last half million years and implications for human evolution.

Evidence for Quaternary climate change in East Africa has been derived from outcrops on land and lake cores and from marine dust, leaf wax, and pollen records. These data have previously been used to evaluate the impact of climate change on hominin evolution, but correlations have proved to be difficult, given poor data continuity and the great distances between marine cores and terrestrial basins where fossil evidence is located. Here, we present continental coring evidence for progressive aridification since about 575 thousand years before present (ka), based on Lake Magadi (Kenya) sediments. This long-term drying trend was interrupted by many wet-dry cycles, with the greatest variability developing during times of high eccentricity-modulated precession. Intense aridification apparent in the Magadi record took place between 525 and 400 ka, with relatively persistent arid conditions after 350 ka and through to the present. Arid conditions in the Magadi Basin coincide with the Mid-Brunhes Event and overlap with mammalian extinctions in the South Kenya Rift between 500 and 400 ka. The 525 to 400 ka arid phase developed in the South Kenya Rift between the period when the last Acheulean tools are reported (at about 500 ka) and before the appearance of Middle Stone Age artifacts (by about 320 ka). Our data suggest that increasing Middle- to Late-Pleistocene aridification and environmental variability may have been drivers in the physical and cultural evolution of Homo sapiens in East Africa.