Remittance from migrants reinforces forest recovery for China's reforestation policy.

Forests play a key role in the mitigation of global warming and provide many other vital ecosystem goods and services. However, as forest continues to vanish at an alarming rate from the surface of the planet, the world desperately needs knowledge on what contributes to forest preservation and restoration. Migration, a hallmark of globalization, is widely recognized as a main driver of forest recovery and poverty alleviation. Here, we show that remittance from migrants reinforces forest recovery that would otherwise be unlikely with mere migration, realizing the additionality of payments for ecosystem services for China's largest reforestation policy, the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP). Guided by the framework that integrates telecoupling and coupled natural and human systems, we investigate forest-livelihood dynamics under the CCFP through the lens of rural out-migration and remittance using both satellite remote sensing imagery and household survey data in two representative sites of rural China. Results show that payments from the CCFP significantly increases the probability of sending remittance by out-migrants to their origin households. We observe substantial forest regeneration and greening surrounding households receiving remittance but forest decline and browning in proximity to households with migrants but not receiving remittance, as measured by forest coverage and the Enhanced Vegetation Index derived from space-borne remotely sensed data. The primary mechanism is that remittance reduces the reliance of households on natural capital from forests, particularly fuelwood, allowing forests near the households to recover. The shares of the estimated ecological and economic additionality induced by remittance are 2.0% (1.4%∼3.8%) and 9.7% (5.0%∼15.2%), respectively, to the baseline of the reforested areas enrolled in CCFP and the payments received by the participating households. Remittance-facilitated forest regeneration amounts to 12.7% (6.0%∼18.0%) of the total new forest gained during the 2003-2013 in China. Our results demonstrate that remittance constitutes a telecoupling mechanism between rural areas and cities over long distances, influencing the local social-ecological gains that the forest policy intended to stimulate. Thus, supporting remittance-sending migrants in cities can be an effective global warming mitigation strategy.

Understanding the mediating role of labor out-migration in household income generation and distribution under a reforestation policy in rural China.

Income inequality is a critical issue of socio-economic development, particularly in rural areas where forest-dependent people are often vulnerable to the intervention of forest policies. This paper aims to elucidate income distribution and inequality of rural households influenced by China's largest reforestation policy implemented in early 2000s. Drawing on socioeconomic and demographic data from household surveys in two rural sites, we applied the Gini coefficient to measure income inequality and used a regression-based approach to examine the underlying factors that are associated with income generation among households. We also performed a mediation analysis to test the role of labor out-migration in shaping household income distribution under the reforestation policy. Results show that remittances sent by rural out-migrants substantially contribute to household income but tend to worsen inequality, particularly for households having retired cropland for reforestation. The inequality in total income depends on capital accumulation for land endowment and labor availability that render diversified livelihoods possible. Such linkage reveals regional disparity, which, along with policy-implementing institutions (e.g., rules for tree species choice for reforestation), can influence income generation from a given source (e.g., agriculture). Rural out-migration of female labor significantly mediates the economic benefits of the policy delivered to the households with an estimated mediating share of 11.7%. These findings add value to the knowledge of poverty-environment interrelationships in a sense that supporting rural livelihoods of the more vulnerable and underrepresented groups is essential for securing and sustaining the stewardship of forests. Policymaking for such forest restoration programs needs to integrate strategies for targeted or precise poverty alleviation to strengthen the conservation effectiveness.

Understanding the Effects of China's Agro-Environmental Policies on Rural Households' Labor and Land Allocation with a Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Model.

Understanding household labor and land allocation decisions under agro-environmental policies is challenging due to complex human-environment interactions. Here, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model based on spatial and socioeconomic data to simulate households' land and labor allocation decisions and investigate the impacts of two forest restoration and conservation programs and one agricultural subsidy program in rural China. Simulation outputs reveal that the forest restoration program accelerates labor out-migration and cropland shrink, while the forest conservation program promotes livelihood diversification via increasing non-farm employment. Meanwhile, the agricultural subsidy program keeps labor for cultivation on land parcels with good quality, but appears less effective for preventing marginal croplands from being abandoned. The policy effects on labor allocation substantially differ between rules based on bounded rational and empirical knowledge of defining household decisions, particularly on sending labor out-migrants and engaging in local off-farm jobs. Land use patterns show that the extent to which households pursue economic benefits through shrinking cultivated land is generally greater under bounded rationality than empirical knowledge. Findings demonstrate nonlinear social-ecological impacts of the agro-environmental policies through time, which can deviate from expectations due to complex interplays between households and land. This study also suggests that the spatial agent-based model can represent adaptive decision-making and interactions of human agents and their interactions in dynamic social and physical environments.

Effects of payments for ecosystem services programs in China on rural household labor allocation and land use: Identifying complex pathways.

Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) is increasingly used in developing countries to secure the sustainable provision of vital ecosystem services. The largest PES programs in the world are embedded in China's new forest policies, which aim to expand forest cover for soil and water conservation and improve livelihoods of rural people. The objective of this study is to identify the complex pathways of impacts of two PES programs - the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) and the Ecological Welfare Forest Program (EWFP) - on household livelihood decisions, and to quantify the direct and indirect impacts along the identified pathways. We fulfill this objective by developing an integrated conceptual framework and applying a Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM), based on household survey data from Anhui, China. Labor allocation (for on-farm work, local paid work, local business, and out-migration) and land use decisions (i.e., rent in, maintain, rent out, or abandon cropland) for participating households are key to understand PES program effects on livelihoods. Results show that the PES programs have only small direct effects but significant indirect effects via the mediating factor of capital assets. Moreover, group heterogeneity analysis shows that lower-income households do not benefit any more than the better-off households from the PES, while households with medium wealth increase dependence on agriculture. In addition, household demographics, individual attributes, and geographic settings differ in their impacts on labor allocation and land use decisions. We conclude that CCFP and EWFP programs would be more efficient in conserving the environment while improving the economic welfare of lower-income households if capital assets were taken into account in the design of compensation schemes.

Divergent socioeconomic-ecological outcomes of China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program in the subtropical mountainous area and the semi-arid Loess Plateau.

China's Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) is one of the world's largest Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs. Its socioeconomic-ecological effects are of great interest to both scholars and policy-makers. However, little is known about how the socioeconomic-ecological outcomes of CCFP differ across geographic regions. This study integrates household survey data, satellite imagery, and statistical models to examine labor migration and forest dynamics under CCFP. The investigation is carried out at two mountainous sites with distinct biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, one in a subtropical mountainous region (Anhui) and the other in the semi-arid Loess Plateau (Shanxi). We found divergent CCFP outcomes on migration behavior, stimulating both local- and distant-migration in the Anhui site while discouraging distant-migration in the Shanxi site, after controlling for factors at the individual, household, community and regional levels. Forest recovery is positively associated with distant-migration in Anhui but with local-migration in Shanxi. Contextual factors interact with demographic-socioeconomic factors to influence household livelihoods in both areas, leading to various socio-ecological pathways from CCFP participation to enhanced forest sustainability. Regional differences should therefore be taken into account in the design of future large-scale PES programs.

Stability and Change within Indigenous Land Use in the Ecuadorian Amazon.

In the Amazon basin and other tropical forest regions, many forested landscapes are inhabited by indigenous peoples who are increasingly exposed to infrastructure expansion, large-scale natural resource extraction, and development programs. How indigenous land use evolves in this context will be a critical determinant of the future of these forests. To date, few studies have had access to longitudinal, large-sample and field-based data that enables the measurement of indigenous land use change and its correlates in these contexts. To address this lacuna, we make use of a unique multi-ethnic household survey conducted in 32 indigenous communities of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon in 2001 and again with the same households in 2012. We analyze these data to measure land use and land use change as well as their determinants. This reveals that the overall household agropastoral footprint has remained close to constant over time, but with important changes within particular land uses and ethnicities. Notably, cacao has largely replaced coffee (tracking commodity price changes), and Kichwa and Shuar households have intensified production on increasingly subdivided plots, with the Shuar specializing in cattle. In contrast, Waorani and Cofán households have maintained small footprints, while Secoya households largely abandoned cattle ranching. Taken together, the results emphasize ethnic heterogeneity in indigenous land use change, a pattern which is only visible through the use of a longitudinal, large-sample, field-based design.

Agricultural Technology Adoption among Migrant Settlers and Indigenous Populations of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon: Are Differences Narrowing?

We consider trends in the use of modern agricultural inputs of migrant settlers and indigenous populations in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon and the demographic, socioeconomic, and land use-related factors affecting input use. It is widely believed that the different livelihood strategies and therefore different relationships to the land of indigenous populations and migrant settlers result in different uses of chemical inputs in agriculture. We analyze data from two panel surveys, one of migrant settler households and a separate panel of indigenous households. We find low input use among both types of households, particularly among two of the five main ethnicities of indigenous households in the study region, the Cofán and Waorani. Multivariate statistical models were run separately for each panel, with significant relationships found between several predictors and the use of pesticides and herbicides. Our results highlight continuing differences in land use patterns between households in the NEA.

Rural household income distribution and inequality in China: Effects of payments for ecosystem services policies and other factors.

In the late 1990s, China initiated the Conversion of Croplands to Forest Program (CCFP) and the Ecological Welfare Forest Program (EWFP) based on the Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) principle. Positive socioeconomic outcomes of the programs are essential for the long-term success of eco-environment conservation. However, there is lack of understanding of their longer-term (over 10 years) impacts on rural livelihoods. In this paper, we examine income distribution and inequality of rural households under CCFP and EWFP in rural Anhui, China after 12 years of program implementation. Results show that CCFP-participating households have higher income inequality than non-participants, while the EWFP does not have an significant effect. Local off-farm work and out-migration with remittances are the two principal income sources and both add to inequality. A regression-based decomposition of inequality shows that the CCFP indirectly alters livelihoods by increasing out-migration with remittances, but it also adds to inequality from shifting livelihoods to non-agricultural activities. Meanwhile, EWFP payments positively affect agricultural incomes and contribute 16% to agricultural income inequality. Finally, human capital, natural capital and physical capital all play important roles in generating income and inequality, but the factors affecting inequality from agricultural and non-agricultural activities are different.

Agricultural land use among mestizo colonist and indigenous populations: Contrasting patterns in the Amazon.

This paper compares land use patterns of mestizo colonists and indigenous populations in the central Ecuadorian Amazon, based on data from a household survey covering mestizo colonist, Kichwa and Shuar households. As expected, colonists mostly engage in commercial agriculture and cattle ranching, but there are substantial differences in land use patterns between the Shuar and the Kichwa. The Shuar engage in cash cropping and cattle ranching, and on average, devote even more land to agricultural uses than mestizo colonists in this sample. In contrast, the Kichwa engage more in subsistence crop production and less in commercial agriculture. Such different patterns appear related to local conditions, earlier migratory and settlement patterns, and the level of exposure to markets. The implications of this for policy are explored in the conclusions.

Impacts of China's Grain for Green Program on Migration and Household Income.

In the late 1990s, China's Yangtze and Yellow River Basins suffered devastating natural disasters widely attributed to the degradation of soil and water resources. The Government of China responded with a number of major environmental programs, the most expensive and influential of which, the Grain for Green (GfG) Program, was implemented widely from 1999. Under the GfG Program-also known as the Sloping Land Conversion or Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program-the central government compensates farmers to convert cropland on steep slopes or otherwise ecologically sensitive areas to forest or grassland. Its long-term success depends on households' ability to make sustainable changes to their household income streams and income diversification strategies. In this paper, we use a difference-in-difference estimation approach to examine the role of migration as a household-level response to the GfG Program, testing the extent to which individuals migrate following a reduction in land available for farming. Importantly, we exploit 15 years of data on migration decisions and establish that participating and non-participating households were on parallel migration paths before the program, thus refuting a key threat to causality in a difference-in-difference model. We find that participating families do, in fact, choose migration as an income diversification strategy more frequently than non-participants. The program effects varied over time but peaked post-Great Recession in 2011 when migration rates in GfG households exceeded those of non-GfG households by 5.9% points (p = 0.003) or about 26%. Our findings should encourage policymakers that families are making long-term adjustments to their livelihood strategies to avoid poverty in anticipation of the eventual withdrawal of government supports.

Determinants of Out-migration in rural China: effects of payments for Ecosystem Services.

Rural out-migration has been a hallmark of socioeconomic development in China, but rapid economic development including deforestation also resulted in environmental degradation, leading to disastrous floods and droughts. In response, the Chinese government implemented Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs for both environmental conservation and poverty alleviation, notably the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program (CCFP) and the Ecological Welfare Forest Program (EWFP). In the context of a full model of the determinants of migration incorporating individual, household and community factors, we investigate the manner in which these programs influenced rural out-migration in a mountainous township in Anhui, China. Results show that the CCFP compensation for switching cropland to trees releases farm labor, leading to out-migration. Meanwhile, the EWFP compensation provides poor rural farmers with large areas of forest with sizable cash subsidies that reduces their motivation to migrate. Out-migration was also found to be affected by a number of individual, household and community characteristics.

Population and development in the Amazon: A longitudinal study of migrant settlers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon / Población y desarrollo en la Amazonia: Un estudio longitudinal de colonos migrantes en la Amazonía norte del Ecuador

ABSTRACT This paper examines changes over time for a full generation of migrant settlers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). Data were collected from a 2014 household survey covering a subsample of households surveyed previously in 1990 and 1999. We observed changes in demographic behavior, land use, forest cover, and living conditions. As the frontier develops, human fertility is continuing to decline with contraceptive prevalence rising. Meanwhile, out-migration from colonist households, largely to destinations within the region, persists. More households have secure land tenure than in 1999, and are better off as measured by possession of assets. There is continued growth in pasture, largely at the expense of forest. Farms still serve as an important livelihood source for families, though growing cities in the NEA are creating more non-agricultural economic opportunities. Our findings provide a snapshot of demographic, economic, land use, and livelihood changes occurring in the NEA during the past quarter century, providing useful information for policymakers seeking to balance economic and environmental goals in order to promote sustainable development as well as protect biodiversity.

RESUMEN Este artículo describe cambios para una generación de migrantes en la Amazonía norte del Ecuador (ANE). Nosotros realizamos una encuesta en el 2014 de un subgrupo de fincas que encuestamos en 1990 y 1999. Observamos cambios demográficos, del uso de la tierra, de la cubierta forestal, y de las condiciones de vida de este grupo. Encontramos que la fecundidad está disminuyendo y que el uso de planificación familiar está aumentando. La migración fuera de las fincas continúa, la mayoría a destinos en la ANE. Más fincas tienen los derechos de su tierra y las familias tienen más bienes. Desde 1999 ha habido conversión en las fincas de bosques a pasto. Las fincas son fuentes importantes de sustento de vida, pero las ciudades en crecimiento están creando otras oportunidades económicas. Nuestros resultados demuestran cambios significativos demográficos, económicos, del uso de la tierra, y de las condiciones de vida durante el periodo 1990-2014. Nuestro artículo provee información útil para líderes que quieran avanzar metas económicas y ambientales para promover el desarrollo sostenible y proteger la biodiversidad.

Indigenous migration dynamics in the Ecuadorian Amazon: a longitudinal and hierarchical analysis.

Amazonian indigenous populations are approaching a critical stage in their history in which increasing education and market integration, rapid population growth and degradation of natural resources threaten the survival of their traditions and livelihoods. A topic that has hardly been touched upon in this context is migration and population mobility. We address this by analysing a unique longitudinal dataset from the Ecuadorian Amazon on the spatial mobility of five indigenous groups and mestizo co-residents. Analyses reveal traditional and new forms of population mobility and migrant selectivity, including gendered forms of marriage migration and rural-urban moves driven by education. These results illustrate a dynamic present and an uncertain future for indigenous populations in which rural, natural-resource-based lifeways may well be sustained but with increasing links to urban areas.

Population and development in the Amazon: A longitudinal study of migrant settlers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon.

This paper examines changes over time for a full generation of migrant settlers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). Data were collected from a 2014 household survey covering a subsample of households surveyed previously in 1990 and 1999. We observed changes in demographic behavior, land use, forest cover, and living conditions. As the frontier develops, human fertility is continuing to decline with contraceptive prevalence rising. Meanwhile, out-migration from colonist households, largely to destinations within the region, persists. More households have secure land tenure than in 1999, and are better off as measured by possession of assets. There is continued growth in pasture, largely at the expense of forest. Farms still serve as an important livelihood source for families, though growing cities in the NEA are creating more non-agricultural economic opportunities. Our findings provide a snapshot of demographic, economic, land use, and livelihoods changes occurring in the NEA during the past quarter century, providing useful information for policymakers seeking to balance economic and environmental goals in order to promote sustainable development as well as protect biodiversity.

Este artículo describe cambios para una generación de migrantes en la Amazonía norte del Ecuador (ANE). Nosotros realizamos una encuesta en el 2014 de un subgrupo de fincas que encuestamos en 1990 y 1999. Observamos cambios demográficos, del uso de la tierra, de la cubierta forestal, y de las condiciones de vida de este grupo. Encontramos que la fecundidad está disminuyendo y que el uso de planificación familiar está aumentando. La migración fuera de las fincas continúa, la mayoría a destinos en la ANE. Más fincas tienen los derechos de su tierra y las familias tienen más bienes. Desde 1999 ha habido conversión en las fincas de bosques a pasto. Las fincas son fuentes importantes de sustento de vida, pero las ciudades en crecimiento están creando otras oportunidades económicas. Nuestros resultados demuestran cambios significativos demográficos, económicos, del uso de la tierra, y de las condiciones de vida durante el periodo 1990­2014. Nuestro artículo provee información útil para líderes que quieran avanzar metas económicas y ambientales para promover el desarrollo sostenible y proteger la biodiversidad.

Oil Extraction and Indigenous Livelihoods in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon.

Globally, the extraction of minerals and fossil fuels is increasingly penetrating into isolated regions inhabited by indigenous peoples, potentially undermining their livelihoods and well-being. To provide new insight to this issue, we draw on a unique longitudinal dataset collected in the Ecuadorian Amazon over an 11-year period from 484 indigenous households with varying degrees of exposure to oil extraction. Fixed and random effects regression models of the consequences of oil activities for livelihood outcomes reveal mixed and multidimensional effects. These results challenge common assumptions about these processes and are only partly consistent with hypotheses drawn from the Dutch disease literature.

Delayed fertility transition among indigenous women in the Ecuadorian Amazon.

CONTEXT: Communities indigenous to the Amazon are among the few remaining worldwide still practicing near-natural fertility, without the use of modern contraceptives. Given the large proportion of women desiring no more births, information on the challenges women there face in limiting fertility would be useful. METHODS: Samples of women of reproductive age from five indigenous ethnic groups in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon were surveyed in 2001 and 2012. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses examined married women's desire for another child at both times and modern contraceptive use in 2012, as well as determinants of a change in women's desire to have more children and of the number of children born during the study period. RESULTS: In 2001, 48% of married women desired another child, 2% used a modern contraceptive and 50% had an unmet need for limiting; in 2012, the proportions were 40%, 19% and 47%, respectively. The total fertility rate was 7.9 births per woman in 2001 and 7.0 births per woman in 2012. Characteristics associated with wanting another child in 2001 and 2012 included parity (odds ratios, 0.6 and 0.4, respectively) and experience of a child death (2.0 each); characteristics associated with contraceptive use in 2012 included desire for another child, experience of a child death and presence of a community health worker (0.3-0.5). Number of children born was positively associated, and the square of the term negatively associated, with no longer wanting more children in 2012 among women who wanted more in 2001 (2.1 and 0.9, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Indigenous women in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon appear to be making the transition to lower fertility. Insufficient access to credible information about the safety and efficacy of modern contraceptives, however, may slow the transition.

Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions.

Consequences of Out-Migration for Land Use in Rural Ecuador.

In rural Ecuador and elsewhere in Latin America, the departure of migrants and the receipt of migrant remittances have led to declining rural populations and increasing cash incomes. It is commonly assumed that these processes will lead to agricultural abandonment and the regrowth of native vegetation, thus undermining traditional livelihoods and providing a boon for biodiversity conservation. However, an increasing number of household-level studies have found mixed and complex effects of out-migration and remittances on agriculture. We advance this literature by using household survey data and satellite imagery from three study areas in rural Ecuador to investigate the effects of migration and remittances on agricultural land use. Multivariate methods are used to disaggregate the effects of migration and remittances, to account for other influences on land use and to correct for the potential endogeneity of migration and remittances. Contrary to common assumptions but consistent with previous studies, we find that migrant departure has a positive effect on agricultural activities that is offset by migrant remittances. These results suggest that rural out-migration alone is not likely to lead to a forest transition in the study areas.

Environmental influences on human migration in rural Ecuador.

The question of whether environmental conditions influence human migration has recently gained considerable attention, driven by claims that global environmental change will displace large populations. Despite this high level of interest, few quantitative studies have investigated the potential effects of environmental factors on migration, particularly in the developing world and for gradual but pervasive forms of environmental change. To address this, a retrospective migration survey was conducted in rural Ecuador and linked to data on topography, climate, and weather shocks. These data were used to estimate multivariate event history models of alternative forms of mobility (local mobility, internal migration, and international migration), controlling for a large number of covariates. This approach is generalizable to other study areas and responds to calls for the development of more rigorous methods in this field. The results indicate that adverse environmental conditions do not consistently increase rural out-migration and, in some cases, reduce migration. Instead, households respond to environmental factors in diverse ways, resulting in complex migratory responses. Overall, the results support an alternative narrative of environmentally induced migration that recognizes the adaptability of rural households in responding to environmental change.

The use of survey data to study migration-environment relationships in developing countries: alternative approaches to data collection.

Growing interest in the environmental aspects of migration is not matched by research on their interrelationships, due partly to the lack of adequate data sets on the two together. Focusing on the microlevel, we describe the data required to effectively investigate these interrelationships. Data sources are discussed, be collected, focusing on household surveys and remote sensing. The main section of the paper describes three alternative approaches to data collection: (a) using existing population and environmental data from different sources, illustrated by Burkina Faso; (b) adding questions to a survey developed for another purpose, illustrated for Guatemala using a DHS survey; and (c) designing a new survey specifically to collect both migration and environmental data to investigate interrelationships, illustrated by Ecuador. Methods used and summary findings are described, followed by a discussion of their advantages and limitations. We conclude with recommendations as to effective use of each approach as research on migration-environment linkages moves forward.