Ocean rogue waves and their phase space dynamics in the limit of a linear interference model.

We reanalyse the probability for formation of extreme waves using the simple model of linear interference of a finite number of elementary waves with fixed amplitude and random phase fluctuations. Under these model assumptions no rogue waves appear when less than 10 elementary waves interfere with each other. Above this threshold rogue wave formation becomes increasingly likely, with appearance frequencies that may even exceed long-term observations by an order of magnitude. For estimation of the effective number of interfering waves, we suggest the Grassberger-Procaccia dimensional analysis of individual time series. For the ocean system, it is further shown that the resulting phase space dimension may vary, such that the threshold for rogue wave formation is not always reached. Time series analysis as well as the appearance of particular focusing wind conditions may enable an effective forecast of such rogue-wave prone situations. In particular, extracting the dimension from ocean time series allows much more specific estimation of the rogue wave probability.

Predictability of rogue events.

Using experimental data from three different rogue wave supporting systems, determinism, and predictability of the underlying dynamics are evaluated with methods of nonlinear time series analysis. We included original records from the Draupner platform in the North Sea as well as time series from two optical systems in our analysis. One of the latter was measured in the infrared tail of optical fiber supercontinua, the other in the fluence profiles of multifilaments. All three data sets exhibit extreme-value statistics and exceed the significant wave height in the respective system by a factor larger than 2. Nonlinear time series analysis indicates a different degree of determinism in the systems. The optical fiber scenario is found to be driven by quantum noise whereas rogue waves emerge as a consequence of turbulence in the others. With the large number of rogue events observed in the multifilament system, we can systematically explore the predictability of such events in a turbulent system. We observe that rogue events do not necessarily appear without a warning, but are often preceded by a short phase of relative order. This surprising finding sheds some new light on the fascinating phenomenon of rogue waves.

Spatiotemporal rogue events in optical multiple filamentation.

The transient appearance of bright spots in the beam profile of optical filaments formed in xenon is experimentally investigated. Fluence profiles are recorded with high-speed optical cameras at the kilohertz repetition rate of the laser source. A statistical analysis reveals a thresholdlike appearance of heavy-tailed fluence distributions together with the transition from single to multiple filamentation. The multifilament scenario exhibits near-exponential probability density functions, with extreme events exceeding the significant wave height by more than a factor of 10. The extreme events are isolated in space and in time. The macroscopic origin of these experimentally observed heavy-tail statistics is shown to be local refractive index variations inside the nonlinear medium, induced by multiphoton absorption and subsequent plasma thermalization. Microscopically, mergers between filament strings appear to play a decisive role in the observed rogue wave statistics.

Saturation of the all-optical Kerr effect in solids.

We discuss the influence of the higher-order Kerr effect (HOKE) in wide bandgap solids at extreme intensities below the onset of optically induced damage. Using different theoretical models, we employ multiphoton absorption rates to compute the nonlinear refractive index by a Kramers-Kronig transform. Within this theoretical framework we provide an estimate for the appearance of significant deviations from the standard optical Kerr effect predicting a linear index change with intensity. We discuss the role of the observed saturation behavior in practically relevant situations, including Kerr lens mode-locking and supercontinuum generation in photonic crystal fibers. Furthermore, we present experimental data from a multiwave mixing experiment in BaF2, which can be explained by the appearance of the HOKE.