Location of active transmission sites of Schistosoma japonicum in lake and marshland regions in China.

Schistosomiasis control in China has, in general, been very successful during the past several decades. However, the rebounding of the epidemic situation in some areas in recent years raises concerns about a sustainable control strategy of which locating active transmission sites (ATS) is a necessary first step. This study presents a systematic approach for locating schistosomiasis ATS by combining the approaches of identifying high risk regions for schisotosmiasis and extracting snail habitats. Environmental, topographical, and human behavioural factors were included in the model. Four significant high-risk regions were detected and 6 ATS were located. We used the normalized difference water index (NDWI) combined with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to extract snail habitats, and the pointwise 'P-value surface' approach to test statistical significance of predicted disease risk. We found complicated non-linear relationships between predictors and schistosomiasis risk, which might result in serious biases if data were not properly treated. We also found that the associations were related to spatial scales, indicating that a well-designed series of studies were needed to relate the disease risk with predictors across various study scales. Our approach provides a useful tool, especially in the field of vector-borne or environment-related diseases.

Investigating the effect of clustering of the urban field on sustainable population growth of centrally located and peripheral towns.

In a previous study (Portnov and Erell, 1998a), an Index of Clustering was defined, which allowed an analysis of the combined effect of spatial isolation and remoteness of peripheral towns on the long-term patterns of their population growth. In the present paper, the analysis of the effect of clustering of the urban field on the patterns of population growth is extended to centrally located urban places, and the validity of this index is tested in two unevenly populated countries--Israel and Norway. In both countries, the effect of clustering of the urban field on the patterns of urban growth is twofold. In sparsely populated areas, the presence of neighboring towns appears to increase their chances of attracting potential migrants due to inter-urban exchanges, while in more densely populated areas, increasing clustering tends to reduce migration influx to a given locality due to inter-town competition. Following this conclusion, a strategy of "redirecting priorities" leading to the formation of urban clusters is proposed, which may enhance the potential of urban growth in geographical areas where this is desirable.