Early aerial expedition photos reveal 85 years of glacier growth and stability in East Antarctica.

During the last few decades, several sectors in Antarctica have transitioned from glacial mass balance equilibrium to mass loss. In order to determine if recent trends exceed the scale of natural variability, long-term observations are vital. Here we explore the earliest, large-scale, aerial image archive of Antarctica to provide a unique record of 21 outlet glaciers along the coastline of East Antarctica since the 1930s. In Lützow-Holm Bay, our results reveal constant ice surface elevations since the 1930s, and indications of a weakening of local land-fast sea-ice conditions. Along the coastline of Kemp and Mac Robertson, and Ingrid Christensen Coast, we observe a long-term moderate thickening of the glaciers since 1937 and 1960 with periodic thinning and decadal variability. In all regions, the long-term changes in ice thickness correspond with the trends in snowfall since 1940. Our results demonstrate that the stability and growth in ice elevations observed in terrestrial basins over the past few decades are part of a trend spanning at least a century, and highlight the importance of understanding long-term changes when interpreting current dynamics.

Sediment discharge from Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers is linked with surface melt.

Sediment discharged from the Greenland Ice Sheet delivers nutrients to marine ecosystems around Greenland and shapes seafloor habitats. Current estimates of the total sediment flux are constrained by observations from land-terminating glaciers only. Addressing this gap, our study presents a budget derived from observations at 30 marine-margin locations. Analyzing sediment cores from nine glaciated fjords, we assess spatial deposition since 1950. A significant correlation is established between mass accumulation rates, normalized by surface runoff, and distance down-fjord. This enables calculating annual sediment flux at any fjord point based on nearby marine-terminating outlet glacier melt data. Findings reveal a total annual sediment flux of 1.324 + /- 0.79 Gt yr-1 over the period 2010-2020 from all marine-terminating glaciers to the fjords. These estimates are valuable for studies aiming to understand the basal ice sheet conditions and for studies predicting ecosystem changes in Greenland's fjords and offshore areas as the ice sheet melts and sediment discharge increase.

To calibrate or not to calibrate, that is the question.

Sensors used for control have become widespread in water resources recovery facilities during the strive for resource efficient operations. However, their accuracy is reliant on uncertain laboratory measurements, which are used for calibration and, in turn, to correct for sensor drift. At the same time, current sensor calibration practices are lacking clear theoretical understanding of how measurement uncertainties impact the final control action. The effects of a customarily, and ad hoc, applied calibration threshold are unknown, leading to the current situation where many wastewater treatment processes are controlled by measurements with unknown accuracy. To study how sensor accuracy is affected by calibration, including varying calibration thresholds, we developed a simple theoretical model with closed-form expressions based on the variance and bias in sensor and laboratory measurements. The model was then simulated to yield the results, which showed no practical gain of using a calibration threshold, apart from the situation when calibration is more time-consuming than validation. By contrast, the best accuracy was obtained when consistently executing calibration, which opposes common practice. Further, the sensor calibration error was shown to be transferred to the process, causing a similar deviation from the setpoint when the same sensor was used for control. This emphasizes the importance of minimizing laboratory measurement uncertainties during calibration, which otherwise directly impact operations. Due to these findings we strongly advice shifting mindset from considering calibration as a sequential detection and correction approach, towards an estimation approach, aiming to estimate bias magnitude and drift speed.

Extensive inland thinning and speed-up of Northeast Greenland Ice Stream.

Over the past two decades, ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has increased owing to enhanced surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean1-5. Whether continuing increased ice loss will accelerate further, and by how much, remains contentious6-9. A main contributor to future ice loss is the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), Greenland's largest basin and a prominent feature of fast-flowing ice that reaches the interior of the GrIS10-12. Owing to its topographic setting, this sector is vulnerable to rapid retreat, leading to unstable conditions similar to those in the marine-based setting of ice streams in Antarctica13-20. Here we show that extensive speed-up and thinning triggered by frontal changes in 2012 have already propagated more than 200 km inland. We use unique global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations, combined with surface elevation changes and surface speeds obtained from satellite data, to select the correct basal conditions to be used in ice flow numerical models, which we then use for future simulations. Our model results indicate that this marine-based sector alone will contribute 13.5-15.5 mm sea-level rise by 2100 (equivalent to the contribution of the entire ice sheet over the past 50 years) and will cause precipitous changes in the coming century. This study shows that measurements of subtle changes in the ice speed and elevation inland help to constrain numerical models of the future mass balance and higher-end projections show better agreement with observations.

Accelerating Ice Loss From Peripheral Glaciers in North Greenland.

In recent decades, Greenland's peripheral glaciers have experienced large-scale mass loss, resulting in a substantial contribution to sea level rise. While their total area of Greenland ice cover is relatively small (4%), their mass loss is disproportionally large compared to the Greenland ice sheet. Satellite altimetry from Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and ICESat-2 shows that mass loss from Greenland's peripheral glaciers increased from 27.2 ± 6.2 Gt/yr (February 2003-October 2009) to 42.3 ± 6.2 Gt/yr (October 2018-December 2021). These relatively small glaciers now constitute 11 ± 2% of Greenland's ice loss and contribute to global sea level rise. In the period October 2018-December 2021, mass loss increased by a factor of four for peripheral glaciers in North Greenland. While peripheral glacier mass loss is widespread, we also observe a complex regional pattern where increases in precipitation at high altitudes have partially counteracted increases in melt at low altitude.

Storstrømmen and L. Bistrup Bræ, North Greenland, Protected From Warm Atlantic Ocean Waters.

Storstrømmen and L. Bistrup Bræ are 20- and 10-km wide, surge type glaciers in North Greenland in quiescent phase that terminate in the southernmost floating ice tongue in East Greenland. Novel multi-beam echo sounding data collected in August 2020 indicate a seabed at 350-400 m depth along a relatively uniform ice shelf front, 100 m deeper than expected, but surrounded by shallower terrain (<100 m) over a 30-km wide region that blocks the access of warm, salty, subsurface Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) at +1.6°C. Conductivity temperature depth data reveal waters in front of the glaciers at -1.8°C not connected to AIW in the outer fjord, Dove Bugt. The recent grounding line retreat of the glaciers is attributed to glacier thinning at its ablation rate, with little influence of ocean waters, which illustrates the fundamental importance of knowing the bathymetry of glacial fjords.

A Late Paleocene age for Greenland's Hiawatha impact structure.

The ~31-km-wide Hiawatha structure, located beneath Hiawatha Glacier in northwestern Greenland, has been proposed as an impact structure that may have formed after the Pleistocene inception of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To date the structure, we conducted 40Ar/39Ar analyses on glaciofluvial sand and U-Pb analyses on zircon separated from glaciofluvial pebbles of impact melt rock, all sampled immediately downstream of Hiawatha Glacier. Unshocked zircon in the impact melt rocks dates to ~1915 million years (Ma), consistent with felsic intrusions found in local bedrock. The 40Ar/39Ar data indicate Late Paleocene resetting and shocked zircon dates to 57.99 ± 0.54 Ma, which we interpret as the impact age. Consequently, the Hiawatha impact structure far predates Pleistocene glaciation and is unrelated to either the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum or flood basalt volcanism in east Greenland. However, it was contemporaneous with the Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maximum, although the impact's exact paleoenvironmental and climatic significance awaits further investigation.

Evaluation of the Apple iPhone 12 Pro LiDAR for an Application in Geosciences.

Traditionally, topographic surveying in earth sciences requires high financial investments, elaborate logistics, complicated training of staff and extensive data processing. Recently, off-the-shelf drones with optical sensors already reduced the costs for obtaining a high-resolution dataset of an Earth surface considerably. Nevertheless, costs and complexity associated with topographic surveying are still high. In 2020, Apple Inc. released the iPad Pro 2020 and the iPhone 12 Pro with novel build-in LiDAR sensors. Here we investigate the basic technical capabilities of the LiDAR sensors and we test the application at a coastal cliff in Denmark. The results are compared to state-of-the-art Structure from Motion Multi-View Stereo (SfM MVS) point clouds. The LiDAR sensors create accurate high-resolution models of small objects with a side length > 10 cm with an absolute accuracy of ± 1 cm. 3D models with the dimensions of up to 130 × 15 × 10 m of a coastal cliff with an absolute accuracy of ± 10 cm are compiled. Overall, the versatility in handling outweighs the range limitations, making the Apple LiDAR devices cost-effective alternatives to established techniques in remote sensing with possible fields of application for a wide range of geo-scientific areas and teaching.

Model-based monitoring of diffuser fouling using standard sensors.

Fouling of fine-pore diffusers can cause substantial aeration energy wastage. It remains challenging to monitor their condition and decide the optimal time for labour-intensive and costly cleaning actions. In this study, we show that data from standard sensors (airflow rate, dissolved oxygen concentration, pressure and airflow valve position), which are fed to simple models, can track the diffuser's condition. Additionally, the parameter estimation of diffuser dynamic wet pressure, oxygen transfer rate, respiration rate and the joint alpha fouling factor ( α F ) was facilitated by an active fault detection inspired method. The method executes a sequence with piecewise constant valve positions via the control system. As a result, airflow rates in a sequence similar to a staircase are obtained, which simplifies the estimation of dissolved oxygen dynamics and airflow rate dynamics. The proposed method was evaluated on a full scale over 18 months and successfully detected a reduced cleaning in the diffusers and several sensor-related disturbances. Ultimately, the findings motivate further research on how modelling combined with repetitive process disturbances can leverage data-driven insights from standard instrumentation.

Late Quaternary dynamics of Arctic biota from ancient environmental genomics.

During the last glacial-interglacial cycle, Arctic biotas experienced substantial climatic changes, yet the nature, extent and rate of their responses are not fully understood1-8. Here we report a large-scale environmental DNA metagenomic study of ancient plant and mammal communities, analysing 535 permafrost and lake sediment samples from across the Arctic spanning the past 50,000 years. Furthermore, we present 1,541 contemporary plant genome assemblies that were generated as reference sequences. Our study provides several insights into the long-term dynamics of the Arctic biota at the circumpolar and regional scales. Our key findings include: (1) a relatively homogeneous steppe-tundra flora dominated the Arctic during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by regional divergence of vegetation during the Holocene epoch; (2) certain grazing animals consistently co-occurred in space and time; (3) humans appear to have been a minor factor in driving animal distributions; (4) higher effective precipitation, as well as an increase in the proportion of wetland plants, show negative effects on animal diversity; (5) the persistence of the steppe-tundra vegetation in northern Siberia enabled the late survival of several now-extinct megafauna species, including the woolly mammoth until 3.9 ± 0.2 thousand years ago (ka) and the woolly rhinoceros until 9.8 ± 0.2 ka; and (6) phylogenetic analysis of mammoth environmental DNA reveals a previously unsampled mitochondrial lineage. Our findings highlight the power of ancient environmental metagenomics analyses to advance understanding of population histories and long-term ecological dynamics.

Sensor bias impact on efficient aeration control during diurnal load variations.

This study highlights the need to increase our understanding of the interplay between sensor drift and the performance of the automatic control system. The impact from biased sensors on the automatic control systems is rarely considered when different control strategies are assessed in water resource recovery facilities. Still, the harsh measurement environment with negative effects on sensor data quality is widely acknowledged. Simulations were used to show how sensor bias in an ammonium cascade feedback controller impacts aeration energy efficiency and total nitrogen removal in an activated sludge process. Response surface methodology was used to reduce the required number of simulations, and to consider the combined effect of two simultaneously biased sensors. The effects from flow variations, and negatively biased ammonium (-1 mg/L) and suspended solids sensors (-500 mg/L) reduced the nitrification aeration energy efficiency by between 7 and 25%. Less impact was seen on total nitrogen removal. There were no added non-linear effects from the two simultaneously biased sensors, apart from an interaction between a biased ammonium sensor and dissolved oxygen sensor located in the last aerated zone. Negative effects from sensor bias can partly be limited if the expected bias direction is considered when the controller setpoint-limits are defined.

Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland.

The retreat and acceleration of Greenland glaciers since the mid-1990s have been attributed to the enhanced intrusion of warm Atlantic Waters (AW) into fjords, but this assertion has not been quantitatively tested on a Greenland-wide basis or included in models. Here, we investigate how AW influenced retreat at 226 marine-terminating glaciers using ocean modeling, remote sensing, and in situ observations. We identify 74 glaciers in deep fjords with AW controlling 49% of the mass loss that retreated when warming increased undercutting by 48%. Conversely, 27 glaciers calving on shallow ridges and 24 in cold, shallow waters retreated little, contributing 15% of the loss, while 10 glaciers retreated substantially following the collapse of several ice shelves. The retreat mechanisms remain undiagnosed at 87 glaciers without ocean and bathymetry data, which controlled 19% of the loss. Ice sheet projections that exclude ocean-induced undercutting may underestimate mass loss by at least a factor of 2.

Centennial response of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers.

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880-2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1-14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

Automated active fault detection in fouled dissolved oxygen sensors.

Biofilm formation causes bias in dissolved oxygen (DO) sensors, which hamper their usage for automatic control and thereby balancing energy- and treatment efficiency. We analysed if a dataset that was generated with deliberate perturbations, can automatically be interpreted to detect bias caused by biofilm formation. We used a challenging set-up with realistic conditions that are required for a full-scale application. This included automated training (adapting to changing normal conditions) and automated tuning (setting an alarm threshold) to assure that the fault detection (FD)-methods are accessible to the operators. The results showed that automatic usage of FD-methods is difficult, especially in terms of automatic tuning of alarm thresholds when small training datasets only represent the normal conditions, i.e. clean sensors. Despite the challenging set-up, two FD-methods successfully improved the detection limit to 0.5 mg DO/L bias caused by biofilm formation. We showed that the studied dataset could be interpreted equally well by simpler FD-methods, as by advanced machine learning algorithms. This in turn indicates that the information contained in the actively generated data was more vital than its interpretation by advanced algorithms.

Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018.

We reconstruct the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet using a comprehensive survey of thickness, surface elevation, velocity, and surface mass balance (SMB) of 260 glaciers from 1972 to 2018. We calculate mass discharge, D, into the ocean directly for 107 glaciers (85% of D) and indirectly for 110 glaciers (15%) using velocity-scaled reference fluxes. The decadal mass balance switched from a mass gain of +47 ± 21 Gt/y in 1972-1980 to a loss of 51 ± 17 Gt/y in 1980-1990. The mass loss increased from 41 ± 17 Gt/y in 1990-2000, to 187 ± 17 Gt/y in 2000-2010, to 286 ± 20 Gt/y in 2010-2018, or sixfold since the 1980s, or 80 ± 6 Gt/y per decade, on average. The acceleration in mass loss switched from positive in 2000-2010 to negative in 2010-2018 due to a series of cold summers, which illustrates the difficulty of extrapolating short records into longer-term trends. Cumulated since 1972, the largest contributions to global sea level rise are from northwest (4.4 ± 0.2 mm), southeast (3.0 ± 0.3 mm), and central west (2.0 ± 0.2 mm) Greenland, with a total 13.7 ± 1.1 mm for the ice sheet. The mass loss is controlled at 66 ± 8% by glacier dynamics (9.1 mm) and 34 ± 8% by SMB (4.6 mm). Even in years of high SMB, enhanced glacier discharge has remained sufficiently high above equilibrium to maintain an annual mass loss every year since 1998.

A large impact crater beneath Hiawatha Glacier in northwest Greenland.

We report the discovery of a large impact crater beneath Hiawatha Glacier in northwest Greenland. From airborne radar surveys, we identify a 31-kilometer-wide, circular bedrock depression beneath up to a kilometer of ice. This depression has an elevated rim that cross-cuts tributary subglacial channels and a subdued central uplift that appears to be actively eroding. From ground investigations of the deglaciated foreland, we identify overprinted structures within Precambrian bedrock along the ice margin that strike tangent to the subglacial rim. Glaciofluvial sediment from the largest river draining the crater contains shocked quartz and other impact-related grains. Geochemical analysis of this sediment indicates that the impactor was a fractionated iron asteroid, which must have been more than a kilometer wide to produce the identified crater. Radiostratigraphy of the ice in the crater shows that the Holocene ice is continuous and conformable, but all deeper and older ice appears to be debris rich or heavily disturbed. The age of this impact crater is presently unknown, but from our geological and geophysical evidence, we conclude that it is unlikely to predate the Pleistocene inception of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Fault signatures and bias progression in dissolved oxygen sensors.

Biofilm fouling is known to impact the data quality of sensors, but little is known about the exact effects. We studied the effects of artificial and real biofilm fouling on dissolved oxygen (DO) sensors in full-scale water resource recovery facilities, and how this can automatically be detected. Biofilm fouling resulted in different drift direction and bias magnitudes for optical (OPT) and electrochemical (MEC) DO sensors. The OPT-sensor was more affected by biofilm fouling compared to the MEC-sensor, especially during summer conditions. A bias of 1 mg/L was detected by analysing the impulse response (IR) of the automatic air cleaning system in the DO sensor. The IR is an effect of a temporal increase in DO concentration during the automatic air cleaning. The IRs received distinct pattern changes that were matched with faults including: biofilm fouling, disturbances in the air supply to the cleaning system, and damaged sensor membrane, which can be used for fault diagnosis. The results highlight the importance of a condition-based sensor maintenance schedule in contrast to fixed cleaning intervals. Further, the results stress the importance of understanding and detecting bias due to biofilm fouling, in order to maintain a robust and resource-efficient process control.