A climate vulnerability assessment of the fish community in the Western Baltic Sea.

Marine fisheries are increasingly impacted by climate change, affecting species distribution and productivity, and necessitating urgent adaptation efforts. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVA), integrating expert knowledge, are vital for identifying species that could thrive or suffer under changing environmental conditions. This study presents a first CVA for the Western Baltic Sea's fish community, a crucial fishing area for Denmark and Germany. Characterized by a unique mix of marine, brackish, and freshwater species, this coastal ecosystem faces significant changes due to the combined effects of overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. Our CVA involved a qualitative expert scoring of 22 fish species, assessing their sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Our study revealed a dichotomy in climate change vulnerability within the fish community of the Western Baltic Sea because traditional fishing targets cod and herring as well as other species with complex life histories are considered to face increased risks, whereas invasive or better adaptable species might thrive under changing conditions. Our findings hence demonstrate the complex interplay between life-history traits and climate change vulnerability in marine fish communities. Eventually, our study provides critical knowledge for the urgent development of tailored adaptation efforts addressing existing but especially future effects of climate change on fish and fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea, to navigate this endangered fisheries systems into a sustainable future.

Regime shift dynamics, tipping points and the success of fisheries management.

Recovery of depleted fish stocks is an important goal for fisheries management and crucial to sustain important ecosystem functions as well as global food security. Successful recovery requires adjusting fishing mortality to stock productivity but can be prevented or inhibited by additional anthropogenic impacts such as climate change. Despite management measures to recover fish stocks being in place in legislations such as the European Union´s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), recovery can be hindered by the occurrence of regime shift dynamics. Such non-linear discontinuous dynamics imply tipping points and bear the characteristics of abrupt change, hysteresis and non-stationary functional relationships. We here used the recent reform of the CFP as a natural experiment to investigate the existence of regime shift dynamics and its potential effects on the recovery potential on six strongly fished or even depleted commercial fish stocks in the North Sea. Using a set of statistical approaches we show that regime shift dynamics exist in all six fish stocks as a response to changes in fishing pressure and temperature. Our results furthermore demonstrate the context-dependence of such dynamics and hence the ability of management measures to rebuild depleted fish stocks, leading to either failed recovery or positive tipping.