Optimizing Access to Unrelated Donors in Canada: Re-Examining the Importance of Donor Factors on Outcomes Following Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

HLA-matched allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a curative therapy for many patients. Unrelated HLA-matched donors are the most frequently used donor for HCT. When more than one donor transplant option is available, transplant centers can select donors based on non-HLA factors. With improved ability to prevent and treat immune complications, such as graft-versus-host disease and infections, it may be possible to proceed more often using HLA-mismatched donors, allowing greater consideration of non-HLA factors, such as donor age, CMV serostatus, and ABO blood group matching, which have demonstrated important impacts on transplant outcomes. Additional factors to consider are donor availability rates and the usage of domestic donors to optimize outcomes. A review of non-HLA factors and considerations on the selection of optimal unrelated donors for HCT are provided within this updated current context.

Determining the impact of current Canadian stem cell registry policy on donor availability via dynamic registry simulation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: When a haematopoietic stem cell registry size is constrained by limits on recruiting, as in Canada, identifying the right person to recruit is a critical determinant of effectiveness. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of changes to donor recruitment effort, within ethnic groups, on the matching effectiveness of the Canadian registry as it evolves over time. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Simulation methods are applied to create a cohort of donor recruits and patients over a 10-year time horizon. New recruits are added to the registry each year, while some existing donors 'age-out' upon reaching their 36th birthday. In a similar fashion, simulated patient lists are created. At the end of each simulated year, simulated patients are matched against the simulated registry. RESULTS: There are increased matches in non-White populations when diverse registrants are preferentially recruited, but there are larger decreases in the number of matches for Caucasian patients. Additionally, ethnic communities that have limited registrants in the Canadian registry in 2021 do not benefit from increased recruiting efforts as much as communities with a larger initial number of registrants. CONCLUSION: Preferentially recruiting from non-Caucasian populations reduces the number of matches from Canadian sources because increases in non-Caucasian populations will not fully counterbalance decreases to Caucasian patient matches. Nevertheless, more than 80% of all matches are for Caucasian patients, regardless of the donor recruiting effort within ethnic groups.

The operational impact of introducing cold stored platelets.

BACKGROUND: Cold stored platelets (CSP) undergo physical changes that make them better at initiating a clot. While cold stored platelets are superior for reducing bleeding in actively bleeding patients, room temperature platelets (RTP) are better for increasing platelet count in patients requiring a prophylactic transfusion. However, whether the overhead required to maintain a dual platelet inventory of both RTP and CSP could be compensated by reduced platelet wastage resulting from the longer shelf life of CSP has not been determined. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A simulation model of a regional blood supply was built, with focus on the operations of a case hospital. Two scenarios were considered: "No-CSP," in which the hospital issues only RTP, and "CSP," in which the hospital issues both RTP and CSP Within the CSP scenario, conditions were tested under which the hospital receives only RTP and converts some to cold stored platelets and a second strategy where the hospital receives CSP from the regional supplier in addition to converting RTP. RESULTS: A centralized supply of CSP is necessary since on-site conversion is limited by platelet age. Product shortages decrease with increased CSP inventory, but CSP wastage increases. It was also determined that, because relatively few RTP units can be converted on-site, RTP wastage is not significantly decreased with the introduction of CSP. CONCLUSION: Given the clinical benefits for treatment of trauma, CSP is a desirable addition to a blood formulary. However, it is unlikely that significant reductions in RTP wastage will occur because of the introduction of CSP.

HLA-haplotype redundancy and rareness in Canadian Blood Services' Stem Cell Registry and Cord Blood Bank: Novel metrics for optimizing utility.

BACKGROUND: The utility of unrelated donor registries that support allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation could be optimized through greater understanding of redundancy and rareness of HLA phenotypes. METHODS: HLA phenotype rareness was determined using known HLA haplotype frequencies. Donor redundancy was determined through pairwise comparison of donor HLA profiles within an inventory. RESULTS: Among 61,730 registrants in the Canadian Blood Services (CBS) Stem Cell Registry (SCR) with high resolution HLA typing at 5 loci, 6.6% of HLA phenotypes were redundant with variation across ethnic groups (8.3% of Caucasian phenotypes; 8% of Native American/First Nations, 4.4% of Asia-Pacific Islanders (API), 2.1% of Hispanic, 0.7% of African-American (AFA), and 4.5% of other ethnicities). A total of 18.5% of registrants had redundant HLA phenotypes with variation across ethnic groups. All 3716 cord blood units in the CBS's cord blood bank (CBB) had high resolution HLA typing at 5 loci and 202 units were redundant (5.4%) comprising 78 HLA phenotypes, with varying rareness. Repeated HLA phenotypes were from Caucasian donors (77%), multiple ethnicity (13%), API (9%), and AFA (1%). Registrants and CBUs with AFA ethnicity had the rarest phenotypes while Caucasian ethnicity was associated with the most common HLA phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Redundancy was greater in the SCR compared to the CBB and was most common with CAU ethnicity. Recruiting non-Caucasian registrants and continued cord blood banking should reduce redundancy. A sub-inventory of redundant donors and cord blood units could support new uses for donor-supported cellular therapies that do not require HLA matching.

Modelling consumers' choice of novel food.

A variety of approaches to reducing the environmental impact of food production and consumption are being explored including technological solutions, such as food produced via biotechnological processes. However, the development of these technologies requires significant upfront investment and consumer acceptance is not guaranteed. The purpose of this research is to develop a system dynamics model to forecast demand, under multiple marketing and quality scenarios, for foods produced via novel technologies, using cellular agriculture as a case study. The model considers consumer heterogeneity, product awareness, word of mouth marketing (WOM), in-store marketing options, pricing options and product utility to estimate diffusion rates and market penetration. To our knowledge, there is no demand forecasting model available for food produced via novel technologies which relies on purchase intention data and incorporates all these factors. Therefore, this research closes a critical gap for that industry. Ultimately, the model shows that price and the consumers' utility for the product drives the final demand regardless of marketing scenario. Further, the rate of diffusion was highest when product samples are provided in store for all scenarios except when product utility is low and the product price is high. Model results suggest that market saturation was reached within the 32-week trial period when the price of the cellular agriculture product was the same as a traditional product but not when the price was double that of traditional meat. Given the lack of available trial data, the model scenarios should be considered a prior probability which should be refined as more data becomes available.

Evolutionary and Ecological Processes Underlying Geographic Variation in Innate Bird Songs.

AbstractEcological and evolutionary processes underlying spatial variation in signals involved in mate recognition and reproductive isolation are crucial to understanding the causes of population divergence and speciation. Here, to test hypotheses concerning the causes of song divergence, we examine how songs of two sister species of Atlantic Forest suboscine birds with innate songs, the Pyriglena fire-eye antbirds, vary across their ranges. Specifically, we evaluated the influence of isolation by distance and introgressive hybridization, as well as morphological and environmental variation, on geographic variation in male songs. Analyses based on 496 male vocalizations from 63 locations across a 2,200-km latitudinal transect revealed clinal changes in the structure of songs and showed that introgressive hybridization increases both the variability and the homogenization of songs in the contact zone between the two species. We also found that isolation by distance, morphological constraints, the environment, and genetic introgression independently predicted song variation across geographic space. Our study shows the importance of an integrative approach that investigates the roles of distinct ecological and evolutionary processes that influence acoustic signal evolution.

Evaluating the inventory impact of utilizing low titer platelets in regional hospitals.

BACKGROUND: As a result of constrained supply, it is sometimes necessary to provide patients with ABO-mismatched platelets. Such practices increase the risk of acute hemolytic transfusion reaction (AHTR). Providing patients with platelets suspended in O plasma having low-titer Anti-A and Anti-B antibodies (LtABO) could reduce the incidence of AHTR. However, natural scarcity limits the number of such units that can be produced. In this paper we present a study to evaluate strategies for deploying LtABO at regional hospitals in Canada. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Regional hospitals often experience demand for platelets on an irregular basis. They are, however, required to stock some number of platelets (typically one A-unit and one O-unit) for emergencies; outdates are common, with discard rates sometimes >>50%. A simulation study was completed to determine the impact of replacing a (1A, 1O) inventory with 2 or 3 units of LtABO at regional hospitals. RESULTS: A significant decreases in wastage and shortage can be expected by replacing a (1A, 1O) inventory policy with 2 units of LtABO. In tested cases, a 2-unit LtABO dominated a (1A, 1O) policy, resulting in statistically fewer outdates and instances of shortage. Holding 3 units of LtABO, increases product availability, but results in an increase in outdates when compared to a (1A, 1O) policy. CONCLUSION: Providing LtABO platelets to smaller, regional hospitals will lower wastage rates and improve patient access to care, when compared to existing (1A, 1O) inventory policies.

Modeling unrelated blood stem cell donor recruitment using simulated registrant cohorts: Assessment of human leukocyte antigen matching across ethnicity groups.

BACKGROUND: Human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-matched unrelated donors are not available for some patients considered for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation, particularly among certain ethnic groups. Simulated recruitment modeling can inform efforts to find new matches for more patients. METHODS: Simulated recruits were generated by assigning a pair of donor HLA haplotypes from historical data files and matched against HLA data of patient searches in the Canadian Blood Services Stem Cell Registry. Recruitment cohorts reflected the proportion of five specific ethnic groups in the 2016 Canadian census data. RESULTS: Novel 8/8 HLA matches between simulated recruits and patients increased linearly with larger recruitment cohorts. The proportion of novel 8/8 HLA matches from Caucasian, Hispanic, and Native American/First Nations recruits was equal to or greater than their relative proportion in the recruited cohort (match to: recruit ratio (MRR) ≥ 1). In contrast, African American and Asian & Pacific Islander recruits represented a smaller proportion of novel matches relative to their percentage of the recruited cohort (MRR <1). The proportion of novel 7/8 HLA-matches from each ethnic group was approximately the same as their proportion in the recruited cohort (MRR ~ 1) and high rates of 7/8 HLA-matching already exist within the Canadian Blood Services registry for all ethnic groups. CONCLUSION: Continued large recruitment cohorts are needed to add new 8/8 HLA matches to registry inventories. Likelihoods of novel HLA matches varied across ethnic groups, reflecting varied HLA haplotype frequencies across groups. Simulated cohort modeling can inform recruitment strategies that will generate new donor options for patients.

Combining State-of-the-Art Pre-Trained Deep Learning Models: A Noble Approach for Skin Cancer Detection Using Max Voting Ensemble.

Skin cancer poses a significant healthcare challenge, requiring precise and prompt diagnosis for effective treatment. While recent advances in deep learning have dramatically improved medical image analysis, including skin cancer classification, ensemble methods offer a pathway for further enhancing diagnostic accuracy. This study introduces a cutting-edge approach employing the Max Voting Ensemble Technique for robust skin cancer classification on ISIC 2018: Task 1-2 dataset. We incorporate a range of cutting-edge, pre-trained deep neural networks, including MobileNetV2, AlexNet, VGG16, ResNet50, DenseNet201, DenseNet121, InceptionV3, ResNet50V2, InceptionResNetV2, and Xception. These models have been extensively trained on skin cancer datasets, achieving individual accuracies ranging from 77.20% to 91.90%. Our method leverages the synergistic capabilities of these models by combining their complementary features to elevate classification performance further. In our approach, input images undergo preprocessing for model compatibility. The ensemble integrates the pre-trained models with their architectures and weights preserved. For each skin lesion image under examination, every model produces a prediction. These are subsequently aggregated using the max voting ensemble technique to yield the final classification, with the majority-voted class serving as the conclusive prediction. Through comprehensive testing on a diverse dataset, our ensemble outperformed individual models, attaining an accuracy of 93.18% and an AUC score of 0.9320, thus demonstrating superior diagnostic reliability and accuracy. We evaluated the effectiveness of our proposed method on the HAM10000 dataset to ensure its generalizability. Our ensemble method delivers a robust, reliable, and effective tool for the classification of skin cancer. By utilizing the power of advanced deep neural networks, we aim to assist healthcare professionals in achieving timely and accurate diagnoses, ultimately reducing mortality rates and enhancing patient outcomes.

Medroxyprogesterone acetate in reindeer bulls: testes histology, cfos activity in the brain, breeding success, and semen quality.

A previous study reported that a 400-mg dose of medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) reduced male reindeer aggression and blocked development of secondary sexual characteristics but did not completely impair fertility. Here we have repeated that protocol in two separate trials. In 2017, tissues and blood samples, collected from MPA and control (CTL) reindeer bulls, euthanized at 30 and 60 d post-treatment were used to evaluate testes histology and morphometrics, cfos activity in the brain and androgen levels. While testes weight tended to decline from August to September in both groups, indices of spermatogenesis remained high. By September, indices of spermatogenesis were declining in both groups with sperm density lower (P = 0.05) in MPA compared to CTL bulls. Aug CTL bulls had the highest concentrations of androstenedione (A4) (P = 0.009) and testosterone (T) (P = 0.08), whereas these androgens were baseline in Aug MPA bulls. By September, A4 and T levels in CTL bulls declined to levels measured in MPA bulls. Cfos activity had a greater number (P = 0.02) of cfos positive neurons in the central amygdala in MPA compared to CTL bulls, suggesting a heightened fear response among the MPA bulls. In the second trial (2019), MPA-treated bulls, with (E, n = 4) and without (IE, n = 4) breeding experience, were blood sampled at key points from July through September when they were put in individual harems with estrous-synchronized cows. Concentrations of T were greatest (P < 0.001) among E bulls prior to MPA treatment but 1 mo after treatment, both T and A4 were baseline in all eight reindeer. Semen collected by electroejaculation at 60 d post-MPA treatment revealed only minor differences in sperm abnormalities between E and IE bulls using both fresh and frozen/thawed semen. Only three bulls (2 E and 1 IE) sired offspring. Breeding success was not related to previous breeding experience, body weight, or bull age. The failure of some MPA bulls to breed appears to be a behavioral, not a physiological, limitation. Limited application of MPA is clearly a useful tool for managing rut-aggression in non-breeding reindeer. However, the possibility that semen could be collected from MPA-treated bulls using restraint and mild sedation rather than general anesthesia should be investigated. This could improve the quality of semen collection while enhancing the safety of both handlers and animals.

A single 400 mg dose of MPA given to reindeer bulls just before the onset of rut eliminates aggressive behavior and suppresses androgen concentrations without dramatic differences in the gross or histological structure of the testes within the first 30 d of treatment. By 60 d post-treatment, there is evidence of smaller testes size and decreased sperm density in treated bulls. However, if given the opportunity, some treated bulls can still successfully breed. Breeding success in MPA bulls was not solely related to previous breeding experience, body weight, or bull age. Androgen concentrations and semen characteristics did not vary with previous breeding experience. Failure of some treated bulls to breed appears to be a behavioral limitation. Differences in brain activity between control and treated bulls were few except for increased cfos activity in the central amygdala of MPA bulls, potentially increasing the fear response in these reindeer.

The impact of donor ferritin testing on blood availability in Canada.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Iron depletion is a side effect of blood donation. Agencies have developed policies to test donors and to extend inter-donation intervals (IDIs) for individuals with low ferritin levels. Ferritin testing, however, has an impact on product availability due to longer IDIs and the effect of test results on donor behaviour. In this paper we apply a model to evaluate the impact of ferritin testing in the Canadian donor population on whole blood donations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A discrete event simulation was adopted for the study. The model represents a population of individuals that donate blood, are tested for ferritin levels, and may exit the system. Data for the simulation was derived from operational data, donor research studies from Canadian Blood Services and previously published sources. RESULTS: Red cell collections will decline by at least 3.1% and could decline by as much as 19.2% after ferritin testing is put in place. Requirements for new donors could rise by as much as 36.0%. CONCLUSION: The impact of ferritin testing on repeat donor behaviour, rather than extensions to the mandated inter-donation interval, is the largest factor influencing declines in whole blood donations. Because behaviour changes following the receipt of a low ferritin result, blood agencies must ensure that donors with low ferritin are motivated to modify their lifestyle and, when healthy, return to the donor pool.

From demand forecasting to inventory ordering decisions for red blood cells through integrating machine learning, statistical modeling, and inventory optimization.

BACKGROUND: The demand and supply of blood are highly variable over time. Blood inventory management that relies heavily on experience-based decisions may not be adaptive to real demand, leading to high operational costs, wastage, and shortages. METHODS: We combined statistical modeling, machine learning, and optimization methods to develop a data-driven demand forecasting and inventory management strategy for red blood cells (RBCs). We then used the strategy to inform daily blood orders. A secondary semi-weekly (twice per week) ordering strategy was developed to handle the last-mile split delivery problem for blood suppliers, characterized by multi-deliveries to the same location multiple times during a short period of time. Both strategies were evaluated using the TRUST database including all patient data across four hospitals in Hamilton, Ontario. RESULTS: We identified 227,944 RBC transfusions for 40,787 patients in Hamilton, Ontario from 2012 to 2018. The predicted daily demand from the hybrid demand forecasting model was not significantly different from the actual daily demand (paired t-test p-value = 0.163); however, the proposed daily ordering quantity from the model was significantly lower than the actual ordering quantity (p-value <0.001). The proposed daily ordering strategy reduced inventory levels by 38.4% without risk of shortages, leading to an overall cost reduction of 43.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 42.3%, 43.7%) compared with the actual cost. The semi-weekly ordering strategy reduced ordering frequency by 62.6% (95% CI: 61.5%, 63.7%). CONCLUSION: The proposed data-driven ordering strategy combining demand forecasting and inventory optimization can achieve significant cost savings for healthcare systems and blood suppliers.

Discrete-Event Simulation to Model the Thrombolysis Process for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients at Urban and Rural Hospitals.

Background: Effective treatment with tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) critically relies on rapid treatment. Door-to-needle time (DNT) is a key measure of hospital efficiency linked to patient outcomes. Numerous changes can reduce DNT, but they are difficult to trial and implement. Discrete-event simulation (DES) provides a way to model and determine the impact of process improvements. Methods: A conceptual framework was developed to illustrate the thrombolysis process; allowing for treatment processes to be replicated using a DES model developed in ARENA. Activity time duration distributions from three sites (one urban and two rural) were used. Five scenarios, three process changes, and two reductions in activity durations, were simulated and tested. Scenarios were tested individually and in combinations. The primary outcome measure is median DNT. The study goal is to determine the largest improvement in DNT at each site. Results: Administration of tPA in the imaging area resulted in the largest median DNT reduction for Site 1 and Site 2 for individual test scenarios (12.6%, 95% CI 12.4-12.8%, and 8.2%, 95% CI 7.5-9.0%, respectively). Ensuring that patients arriving via emergency medical services (EMS) remain on the EMS stretcher to imaging resulted in the largest median DNT improvement for Site 3 (9.2%, 95% CI 7.9-10.5%). Reducing both the treatment decision time and tPA preparation time by 35% resulted in a 11.0% (95% CI 10.0-12.0%) maximum reduction in median DNT. The lowest median and 90th percentile DNTs were achieved by combining all test scenarios, with a maximum reduction of 26.7% (95% CI 24.5-28.9%) and 17.1% (95% CI 12.5-21.7%), respectively. Conclusions: The detailed conceptual framework clarifies the intra-hospital logistics of the thrombolysis process. The most significant median DNT improvement at rural hospitals resulted from ensuring patients arriving via EMS remain on the EMS stretcher to imaging, while urban sites benefit more from administering tPA in the imaging area. Reducing the durations of activities on the critical path will provide further DNT improvements. Significant DNT improvements are achievable in urban and rural settings by combining process changes with reducing activity durations.

Estimating the impact on the inventory of implementing pathogen-reduced platelets in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Pathogen reduction (PR) technology will be implemented in pooled platelets in Canada. It is anticipated that PR platelets will be licensed in Canada for a maximum shelf life of 5 days, while non-treated apheresis platelet products will continue to be licensed for 7 days. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This study evaluates the impact on inventory, wastage, and shortages of implementing PR platelets. A custom-built simulation model was used to represent a regional distribution network. Experiments with the model were used to estimate product wastage and shortages when a 5-day PR pooled platelet product is introduced alongside a 7-day apheresis platelet product. RESULTS: Pooled platelet waste and shortages both increase as pooled shelf life decreases. Apheresis platelets, however, show a different response: While shortages of apheresis platelets increase as the shelf life of pooled units decreases, apheresis waste declines as pooled shelf life decreases. CONCLUSION: Additional platelet collections will be necessary to accommodate the shorter PR platelet shelf life and to cover increased patient transfusion needs due to a lower platelet yield in PR units. Increases of 9% for pooled units and 6% for apheresis units beyond expected demand, were found to be sufficient to ensure a non-inferior level of customer service while minimizing waste.

Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites reflect hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity in muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus).

Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus), a taxonomically unique Arctic species, are increasingly exposed to climate and other anthropogenic changes. It is critical to develop and validate reliable tools to monitor their physiological stress response in order to assess the impacts of these changes. Here, we measured fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) levels in response to the administration of adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) in the winter (1 IU/kg) and summer (2 IU/kg) using two enzyme immunoassays, one targeting primarily cortisol and the other targeting primarily corticosterone. Fecal cortisol levels varied substantially within and among individuals, and none of the animals in either challenge showed an increase in fecal cortisol following the injection of ACTH. By contrast, two of six (winter) and two of five (summer) muskoxen showed a clear response in fecal corticosterone levels (i.e., maximal percentage increase as compared to time 0 levels > 100%). Increases in fecal corticosterone post-ACTH injection occurred earlier and were of shorter duration in the summer than in the winter and fecal corticosterone levels were, in general, lower during the summer. These seasonal differences in FGM responses may be related to the use of different individuals (i.e., influence of sex, age, social status, etc.) and to seasonal variations in the metabolism and excretion of glucocorticoids, intestinal transit time, voluntary food intake, and fecal output and moisture content. Results from this study support using FGMs as a biomarker of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity in muskoxen, advance our understanding of the physiological adaptations of mammals living in highly seasonal and extreme environments such as the Arctic, and emphasize the importance of considering seasonality in other species when interpreting FGM levels.

Acoustic monitors and direct observations provide similar but distinct perspectives on bird assemblages in a lowland forest of eastern Ecuador.

Bird communities in lowland Neotropical forests exhibit temporal and spatial variation in species composition and abundance at multiple scales. Detecting and explaining such variation requires adequate methods for sampling those bird communities but counting birds in highly diverse lowland forests of the Neotropics can be particularly challenging. Point counts are one of the most frequently used methods for counting birds in tropical forests but inter- and intra-observer variability in detecting and identifying sounds may cause problems. Acoustic monitors (passive acoustic monitors; autonomous recording units) provide an alternative and potentially effective method to sample bird communities by acting, in effect, as "point counts", recording vocalizations at a given point for a set time. I used acoustic monitors to examine patterns of species richness, spatial distribution, and community composition of birds in a lowland forest in eastern Ecuador, one of the most diverse regions on earth. I deployed monitors at 25 locations, each separated by at least 200 m, on each of two 100-ha plots (Harpia, Puma) at Tiputini Biodiversity Station during January-February, 2013-2017. Monitors were set to record for 10 min followed by a 5-min break, from 0545 h to 0810 h (10 recording periods/morning). Recordings were later reviewed to identify species; no attempt was made to distinguish individuals or to estimate distance. Results were compared with contemporaneous direct observations along transects on the same plots. A total of 214 species were identified from recordings on both plots, combined, with slightly more on Harpia (208) than on Puma (188). Number per year ranged from 142 on Harpia in 2016 to 161 on Puma in 2015. Number per point was ~45 with an overall range of 29-68. Number of species detected in recordings was similar to but somewhat less than the number recorded during direct observations. Number of species recorded increased rapidly from the first period (0545-0555 h) to the third (0615-0625 h) but showed little subsequent change. Most species were recorded at relatively few points; the four most widely distributed species were the same on both plots (Patagioenas plumbea, Xiphorhynchus guttatus, Capito aurita, Ramphastos tucanus), all of which are relatively loud canopy or subcanopy species. Ordinations based on species composition illustrated differences between plots based on both recordings and direct observations; similarly, patterns of species composition differed between methods. Acoustic monitors can be an effective tool for sampling bird communities and may be particularly effective and efficient for sampling loud species with distinctive songs. Nonetheless, results from monitors may provide different perspectives on species composition when compared to direct observations. Which method is preferred likely will depend on the specific objectives of individual studies.

Ecological niche differentiation in Chiroxiphia and Antilophia manakins (Aves: Pipridae).

Species distribution models are useful for identifying the ecological characteristics that may limit a species' geographic range and for inferring patterns of speciation. Here, we test a hypothesis of niche conservatism across evolutionary time in a group of manakins (Aves: Pipridae), with a focus on Chiroxiphia boliviana, and examine the degree of ecological differentiation with other Chiroxiphia and Antilophia manakins. We tested whether allopatric sister species were more or less similar in environmental space than expected given their phylogenetic distances, which would suggest, respectively, ecological niche conservatism over time or ecologically mediated selection (i.e. niche divergence). We modeled the distribution of nine manakin taxa (C. boliviana, C. caudata, C. lanceolata, C. linearis, C. p. pareola, C. p. regina, C. p. napensis, Antilophia galeata and A. bokermanni) using Maxent. We first performed models for each taxon and compared them. To test our hypothesis we followed three approaches: (1) we tested whether C. boliviana could predict the distribution of the other manakin taxa and vice versa; (2) we compared the ecological niches by using metrics of niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity; and (3) lastly, we tested whether niche differentiation corresponded to phylogenetic distances calculated from two recent phylogenies. All models had high training and test AUC values. Mean AUC ratios were high (>0.8) for most taxa, indicating performance better than random. Results suggested niche conservatism, and high niche overlap and equivalency between C. boliviana and C. caudata, but we found very low values between C. boliviana and the rest of the taxa. We found a negative, but not significant, relationship between niche overlap and phylogenetic distance, suggesting an increase in ecological differentiation and niche divergence over evolutionary time. Overall, we give some insights into the evolution of C. boliviana, proposing that ecological selection may have influenced its speciation.

Correction: Novel insights into serodiagnosis and epidemiology of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, a newly recognized pathogen in muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus).

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231724.].

Wild dogs at stake: deforestation threatens the only Amazon endemic canid, the short-eared dog (Atelocynus microtis).

The persistent high deforestation rate and fragmentation of the Amazon forests are the main threats to their biodiversity. To anticipate and mitigate these threats, it is important to understand and predict how species respond to the rapidly changing landscape. The short-eared dog Atelocynus microtis is the only Amazon-endemic canid and one of the most understudied wild dogs worldwide. We investigated short-eared dog habitat associations on two spatial scales. First, we used the largest record database ever compiled for short-eared dogs in combination with species distribution models to map species habitat suitability, estimate its distribution range and predict shifts in species distribution in response to predicted deforestation across the entire Amazon (regional scale). Second, we used systematic camera trap surveys and occupancy models to investigate how forest cover and forest fragmentation affect the space use of this species in the Southern Brazilian Amazon (local scale). Species distribution models suggested that the short-eared dog potentially occurs over an extensive and continuous area, through most of the Amazon region south of the Amazon River. However, approximately 30% of the short-eared dog's current distribution is expected to be lost or suffer sharp declines in habitat suitability by 2027 (within three generations) due to forest loss. This proportion might reach 40% of the species distribution in unprotected areas and exceed 60% in some interfluves (i.e. portions of land separated by large rivers) of the Amazon basin. Our local-scale analysis indicated that the presence of forest positively affected short-eared dog space use, while the density of forest edges had a negative effect. Beyond shedding light on the ecology of the short-eared dog and refining its distribution range, our results stress that forest loss poses a serious threat to the conservation of the species in a short time frame. Hence, we propose a re-assessment of the short-eared dog's current IUCN Red List status (Near Threatened) based on findings presented here. Our study exemplifies how data can be integrated across sources and modelling procedures to improve our knowledge of relatively understudied species.

Transitioning to Full Field Digital Mammography in Nova Scotia: Using Interrupted Time Series Methods to Study the Impact of Technology Change on Mammography Volumes.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, mammography has transitioned from film to digital media with promises of increased productivity and time savings. Between 2007 and 2010 in Nova Scotia, 10 mammography sites transitioned from analog to digital, providing a natural experiment to evaluate the transition (full-field digital mammography) on mammography with respect to changes in throughput volumes in a "real-world" setting. METHODS: Study data consisted of aggregate, monthly, site-specific counts of screening and diagnostic mammograms for the period 2006 to 2014, which were obtained from an information system that supports central booking, clinical reporting, and patient management for all breast imaging in Nova Scotia. A multigroup interrupted time series design using segmented regression with site-month data assessed pre-to post-transition changes in screening throughput volumes and the proportion of diagnostic mammograms performed. RESULTS: The overall mean monthly number of mammograms per machine per full-time equivalent increased by 17% from 192.9 (95% confidence interval: 182.7-203.1) to 225.7 (95% CI 218.3-233.0); however, there was marked heterogeneity across these sites. A pooled analysis for all sites revealed that there was no statistically significantly change in the proportion of diagnostic mammograms performed after transition. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in throughput volumes were observed only in some sites, suggesting unmeasured site-specific factors may have limited the potential for improvement. Interrupted time series methods are an appropriate and meaningful approach for evaluating technology and procedure changes in diagnostic imaging.