Considering clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential in space radiation risk analysis for hematologic cancers and cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Expanding human presence in space through long-duration exploration missions and commercial space operations warrants improvements in approaches for quantifying crew space radiation health risks. Currently, risk assessment models for radiogenic cancer and cardiovascular disease consider age, sex, and tobacco use, but do not incorporate other modifiable (e.g., body weight, physical activity, diet, environment) and non-modifiable individual risk factors (e.g., genetics, medical history, race/ethnicity, family history) that may greatly influence crew health both in-mission and long-term. For example, clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a relatively common age-related condition that is an emerging risk factor for a variety of diseases including cardiovascular disease and cancer. CHIP carrier status may therefore exacerbate health risks associated with space radiation exposure. METHODS: In the present study, published CHIP hazard ratios were used to modify background hazard rates for coronary heart disease, stroke, and hematologic cancers in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration space radiation risk assessment model. The risk of radiation exposure-induced death for these endpoints was projected for a future Mars exploration mission scenario. RESULTS: Here we show appreciable increases in the lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for hematologic malignancies, coronary heart disease, and stroke, which are observed as a function of age after radiation exposure for male and female crew members that are directly attributable to the elevated health risks for CHIP carriers. CONCLUSIONS: We discuss the importance of evaluating individual risk factors such as CHIP as part of a comprehensive space radiation risk assessment strategy aimed at effective risk communication and disease surveillance for astronauts embarking on future exploration missions.

Space radiation exposure is a major hazard of spaceflight that may increase cancer and cardiovascular disease risks for future astronauts exploring the moon and Mars. There is a need for accurate risk assessment that considers individual risk factors to support informed consent and medical management of these risks. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a condition that occurs when copies of variant cells accumulate in the blood of otherwise healthy individuals. CHIP is an emerging risk factor linked with blood cancers and cardiovascular disease. We evaluated how CHIP can alter space radiation health risks in astronauts for a Mars exploration mission scenario. We find large increases in lifetime risk of space radiation exposure-induced death for hematologic malignancies and cardiovascular disease in CHIP carriers. These results suggest that increased screening may help facilitate better management of radiation risks.

Lifetime evaluation of left ventricular structure and function in male ApoE null mice after gamma and space-type radiation exposure.

The space radiation (IR) environment contains high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei emitted from galactic cosmic rays with the ability to overcome current shielding strategies, posing increased IR-induced cardiovascular disease risks for astronauts on prolonged space missions. Little is known about the effect of 5-ion simplified galactic cosmic ray simulation (simGCRsim) exposure on left ventricular (LV) function. Three-month-old, age-matched male Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) null mice were irradiated with 137Cs gamma (γ; 100, 200, and 400 cGy) and simGCRsim (50, 100, 150 cGy all at 500 MeV/nucleon (n)). LV function was assessed using transthoracic echocardiography at early/acute (14 and 28 days) and late/degenerative (365, 440, and 660 days) times post-irradiation. As early as 14 and 28-days post IR, LV systolic function was reduced in both IR groups across all doses. At 14 days post-IR, 150 cGy simGCRsim-IR mice had decreased diastolic wall strain (DWS), suggesting increased myocardial stiffness. This was also observed later in 100 cGy γ-IR mice at 28 days. At later stages, a significant decrease in LV systolic function was observed in the 400 cGy γ-IR mice. Otherwise, there was no difference in the LV systolic function or structure at the remaining time points across the IR groups. We evaluated the expression of genes involved in hemodynamic stress, cardiac remodeling, inflammation, and calcium handling in LVs harvested 28 days post-IR. At 28 days post-IR, there is increased expression of Bnp and Ncx in both IR groups at the lowest doses, suggesting impaired function contributes to hemodynamic stress and altered calcium handling. The expression of Gals3 and ß-Mhc were increased in simGCRsim and γ-IR mice respectively, suggesting there may be IR-specific cardiac remodeling. IR groups were modeled to calculate the Relative Biological Effectiveness (RBE) and Radiation Effects Ratio (RER). No lower threshold was determined using the observed dose-response curves. These findings do not exclude the possibility of the existence of a lower IR threshold or the presence of IR-induced cardiovascular disease (CVD) when combined with additional space travel stressors, e.g., microgravity.

Lifetime Evaluation of Left Ventricular Structure and Function in Male C57BL/6J Mice after Gamma and Space-Type Radiation Exposure.

The lifetime effects of space irradiation (IR) on left ventricular (LV) function are unknown. The cardiac effects induced by space-type IR, specifically 5-ion simplified galactic cosmic ray simulation (simGCRsim), are yet to be discovered. Three-month-old, age-matched, male C57BL/6J mice were irradiated with 137Cs gamma (γ; 100, 200 cGy) and simGCRsim (50 and 100 cGy). LV function was assessed via transthoracic echocardiography at 14 and 28 days (early), and at 365, 440, and 660 (late) days post IR. We measured the endothelial function marker brain natriuretic peptide in plasma at three late timepoints. We assessed the mRNA expression of the genes involved in cardiac remodeling, fibrosis, inflammation, and calcium handling in LVs harvested at 660 days post IR. All IR groups had impaired global LV systolic function at 14, 28, and 365 days. At 660 days, 50 cGy simGCRsim-IR mice exhibited preserved LV systolic function with altered LV size and mass. At this timepoint, the simGCRsim-IR mice had elevated levels of cardiac fibrosis, inflammation, and hypertrophy markers Tgfß1, Mcp1, Mmp9, and ßmhc, suggesting that space-type IR may induce the cardiac remodeling processes that are commonly associated with diastolic dysfunction. IR groups showing statistical significance were modeled to calculate the Relative Biological Effectiveness (RBE) and Radiation Effects Ratio (RER). The observed dose-response shape did not indicate a lower threshold at these IR doses. A single full-body IR at doses of 100-200 cGy for γ-IR, and 50-100 cGy for simGCRsim-IR decreases the global LV systolic function in WT mice as early as 14 and 28 days after exposure, and at 660 days post IR. Interestingly, there is an intermediate time point (365 days) where the impairment in LV function is observed. These findings do not exclude the possibility of increased acute or degenerative cardiovascular disease risks at lower doses of space-type IR, and/or when combined with other space travel-associated stressors such as microgravity.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Modeling for Astronauts: Making the Leap From Earth to Space.

NASA has recently completed several long-duration missions to the International Space Station and is solidifying plans to return to the Moon, with an eye toward Mars and beyond. As NASA pushes the boundaries of human space exploration, the hazards of spaceflight, including space radiation, levy an increasing burden on astronaut health and performance. The cardiovascular system may be especially vulnerable due to the combined impacts of space radiation exposure, lack of gravity, and other spaceflight hazards. On Earth, the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) following moderate to high radiation doses is well-established from clinical, environmental, and occupational exposures (largely from gamma- and x-rays). Less is known about CVD risks associated with high-energy charged ions found in space and increasingly used in radiotherapy applications on Earth, making this a critical area of investigation for occupational radiation protection. Assessing CVD risk is complicated by its multifactorial nature, where an individual's risk is strongly influenced by factors such as family history, blood pressure, and lipid profiles. These known risk factors provide the basis for development of a variety of clinical risk prediction models (CPMs) that inform the likelihood of medical outcomes over a defined period. These tools improve clinical decision-making, personalize care, and support primary prevention of CVD. They may also be useful for individualizing risk estimates for CVD following radiation exposure both in the clinic and in space. In this review, we summarize unique aspects of radiation risk assessment for astronauts, and we evaluate the most widely used CVD CPMs for their use in NASA radiation risk assessment applications. We describe a comprehensive dual-use risk assessment framework that supports both clinical care and operational management of space radiation health risks using quantitative metrics. This approach is a first step in using personalized medicine for radiation risk assessment to support safe and productive spaceflight and long-term quality of life for NASA astronauts.

A million persons, a million dreams: a vision for a national center of radiation epidemiology and biology.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies of radiation-exposed populations form the basis for human safety standards. They also help shape public health policy and evidence-based health practices by identifying and quantifying health risks of exposure in defined populations. For more than a century, epidemiologists have studied the consequences of radiation exposures, yet the health effects of low levels delivered at a low-dose rate remain equivocal. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Million Person Study (MPS) of U.S. Radiation Workers and Veterans was designed to examine health effects following chronic exposures in contrast with brief exposures as experienced by the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Radiation associations for rare cancers, intakes of radionuclides, and differences between men and women are being evaluated, as well as noncancers such as cardiovascular disease and conditions such as dementia and cognitive function. The first international symposium, held November 6, 2020, provided a broad overview of the MPS. Representatives from four U.S. government agencies addressed the importance of this research for their respective missions: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The major components of the MPS were discussed and recent findings summarized. The importance of radiation dosimetry, an essential feature of each MPS investigation, was emphasized. RESULTS: The seven components of the MPS are DOE workers, nuclear weapons test participants, nuclear power plant workers, industrial radiographers, medical radiation workers, nuclear submariners, other U.S. Navy personnel, and radium dial painters. The MPS cohorts include tens of thousands of workers with elevated intakes of alpha particle emitters for which organ-specific doses are determined. Findings to date for chronic radiation exposure suggest that leukemia risk is lower than after acute exposure; lung cancer risk is much lower and there is little difference in risks between men and women; an increase in ischemic heart disease is yet to be seen; esophageal cancer is frequently elevated but not myelodysplastic syndrome; and Parkinson's disease may be associated with radiation exposure. CONCLUSIONS: The MPS has provided provocative insights into the possible range of health effects following low-level chronic radiation exposure. When the 34 MPS cohorts are completed and combined, a powerful evaluation of radiation-effects will be possible. This final article in the MPS special issue summarizes the findings to date and the possibilities for the future. A National Center for Radiation Epidemiology and Biology is envisioned.

Advances in space radiation physics and transport at NASA.

The space radiation environment is a complex mixture of particle types and energies originating from sources inside and outside of the galaxy. These environments may be modified by the heliospheric and geomagnetic conditions as well as planetary bodies and vehicle or habitat mass shielding. In low Earth orbit (LEO), the geomagnetic field deflects a portion of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and all but the most intense solar particle events (SPE). There are also dynamic belts of trapped electrons and protons with low to medium energy and intense particle count rates. In deep space, the GCR exposure is more severe than in LEO and varies inversely with solar activity. Unpredictable solar storms also present an acute risk to astronauts if adequate shielding is not provided. Near planetary surfaces such as the Earth, moon or Mars, secondary particles are produced when the ambient deep space radiation environment interacts with these surfaces and/or atmospheres. These secondary particles further complicate the local radiation environment and modify the associated health risks. Characterizing the radiation fields in this vast array of scenarios and environments is a challenging task and is currently accomplished with a combination of computational models and dosimetry. The computational tools include models for the ambient space radiation environment, mass shielding geometry, and atomic and nuclear interaction parameters. These models are then coupled to a radiation transport code to describe the radiation field at the location of interest within a vehicle or habitat. Many new advances in these models have been made in the last decade, and the present review article focuses on the progress and contributions made by workers and collaborators at NASA Langley Research Center in the same time frame. Although great progress has been made, and models continue to improve, significant gaps remain and are discussed in the context of planned future missions. Of particular interest is the juxtaposition of various review committee findings regarding the accuracy and gaps of combined space radiation environment, physics, and transport models with the progress achieved over the past decade. While current models are now fully capable of characterizing radiation environments in the broad range of forecasted mission scenarios, it should be remembered that uncertainties still remain and need to be addressed.

HZETRN radiation transport validation using balloon-based experimental data.

The deterministic radiation transport code HZETRN (High charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) was developed by NASA to study the effects of cosmic radiation on astronauts and instrumentation shielded by various materials. This work presents an analysis of computed differential flux from HZETRN compared with measurement data from three balloon-based experiments over a range of atmospheric depths, particle types, and energies. Model uncertainties were quantified using an interval-based validation metric that takes into account measurement uncertainty both in the flux and the energy at which it was measured. Average uncertainty metrics were computed for the entire dataset as well as subsets of the measurements (by experiment, particle type, energy, etc.) to reveal any specific trends of systematic over- or under-prediction by HZETRN. The distribution of individual model uncertainties was also investigated to study the range and dispersion of errors beyond just single scalar and interval metrics. The differential fluxes from HZETRN were generally well-correlated with balloon-based measurements; the median relative model difference across the entire dataset was determined to be 30%. The distribution of model uncertainties, however, revealed that the range of errors was relatively broad, with approximately 30% of the uncertainties exceeding  ±â€¯40%. The distribution also indicated that HZETRN systematically under-predicts the measurement dataset as a whole, with approximately 80% of the relative uncertainties having negative values. Instances of systematic bias for subsets of the data were also observed, including a significant underestimation of alpha particles and protons for energies below 2.5  GeV/u. Muons were found to be systematically over-predicted at atmospheric depths deeper than 50 g/cm2 but under-predicted for shallower depths. Furthermore, a systematic under-prediction of alpha particles and protons was observed below the geomagnetic cutoff, suggesting that improvements to the light ion production cross sections in HZETRN should be investigated.

Optimal shielding thickness for galactic cosmic ray environments.

Models have been extensively used in the past to evaluate and develop material optimization and shield design strategies for astronauts exposed to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) on long duration missions. A persistent conclusion from many of these studies was that passive shielding strategies are inefficient at reducing astronaut exposure levels and the mass required to significantly reduce the exposure is infeasible, given launch and associated cost constraints. An important assumption of this paradigm is that adding shielding mass does not substantially increase astronaut exposure levels. Recent studies with HZETRN have suggested, however, that dose equivalent values actually increase beyond ∼20g/cm2 of aluminum shielding, primarily as a result of neutron build-up in the shielding geometry. In this work, various Monte Carlo (MC) codes and 3DHZETRN are evaluated in slab geometry to verify the existence of a local minimum in the dose equivalent versus aluminum thickness curve near 20g/cm2. The same codes are also evaluated in polyethylene shielding, where no local minimum is observed, to provide a comparison between the two materials. Results are presented so that the physical interactions driving build-up in dose equivalent values can be easily observed and explained. Variation of transport model results for light ions (Z ≤ 2) and neutron-induced target fragments, which contribute significantly to dose equivalent for thick shielding, is also highlighted and indicates that significant uncertainties are still present in the models for some particles. The 3DHZETRN code is then further evaluated over a range of related slab geometries to draw closer connection to more realistic scenarios. Future work will examine these related geometries in more detail.

Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing biomarkers and to evaluate the potential for biomarkers to inform models of post exposure cancer risk. Because cellular stress response pathways to space radiation and environmental carcinogens share common nodes, biomarker-driven risk models may be broadly applicable for estimating risks for other carcinogens.

Reference field specification and preliminary beam selection strategy for accelerator-based GCR simulation.

The galactic cosmic ray (GCR) simulator at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) is intended to deliver the broad spectrum of particles and energies encountered in deep space to biological targets in a controlled laboratory setting. In this work, certain aspects of simulating the GCR environment in the laboratory are discussed. Reference field specification and beam selection strategies at NSRL are the main focus, but the analysis presented herein may be modified for other facilities and possible biological considerations. First, comparisons are made between direct simulation of the external, free space GCR field and simulation of the induced tissue field behind shielding. It is found that upper energy constraints at NSRL limit the ability to simulate the external, free space field directly (i.e. shielding placed in the beam line in front of a biological target and exposed to a free space spectrum). Second, variation in the induced tissue field associated with shielding configuration and solar activity is addressed. It is found that the observed variation is likely within the uncertainty associated with representing any GCR reference field with discrete ion beams in the laboratory, given current facility constraints. A single reference field for deep space missions is subsequently identified. Third, a preliminary approach for selecting beams at NSRL to simulate the designated reference field is presented. This approach is not a final design for the GCR simulator, but rather a single step within a broader design strategy. It is shown that the beam selection methodology is tied directly to the reference environment, allows facility constraints to be incorporated, and may be adjusted to account for additional constraints imposed by biological or animal care considerations. The major biology questions are not addressed herein but are discussed in a companion paper published in the present issue of this journal. Drawbacks of the proposed methodology are discussed and weighed against alternative simulation strategies.

Galactic cosmic ray simulation at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory.

Most accelerator-based space radiation experiments have been performed with single ion beams at fixed energies. However, the space radiation environment consists of a wide variety of ion species with a continuous range of energies. Due to recent developments in beam switching technology implemented at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), it is now possible to rapidly switch ion species and energies, allowing for the possibility to more realistically simulate the actual radiation environment found in space. The present paper discusses a variety of issues related to implementation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) simulation at NSRL, especially for experiments in radiobiology. Advantages and disadvantages of different approaches to developing a GCR simulator are presented. In addition, issues common to both GCR simulation and single beam experiments are compared to issues unique to GCR simulation studies. A set of conclusions is presented as well as a discussion of the technical implementation of GCR simulation.

Variation in lunar neutron dose estimates.

The radiation environment on the Moon includes albedo neutrons produced by primary particles interacting with the lunar surface. In this work, HZETRN2010 is used to calculate the albedo neutron contribution to effective dose as a function of shielding thickness for four different space radiation environments and to determine to what extent various factors affect such estimates. First, albedo neutron spectra computed with HZETRN2010 are compared to Monte Carlo results in various radiation environments. Next, the impact of lunar regolith composition on the albedo neutron spectrum is examined, and the variation on effective dose caused by neutron fluence-to-effective dose conversion coefficients is studied. A methodology for computing effective dose in detailed human phantoms using HZETRN2010 is also discussed and compared. Finally, the combined variation caused by environmental models, shielding materials, shielding thickness, regolith composition and conversion coefficients on the albedo neutron contribution to effective dose is determined. It is shown that a single percentage number for characterizing the albedo neutron contribution to effective dose can be misleading. In general, the albedo neutron contribution to effective dose is found to vary between 1-32%, with the environmental model, shielding material and shielding thickness being the driving factors that determine the exact contribution. It is also shown that polyethylene or other hydrogen-rich materials may be used to mitigate the albedo neutron exposure.