Southeast Asia's import demand for skim milk powder: Implications for US exporters.

Dairy industries in Southeast Asia are small and produce less than the domestic market demands. As expenditure and population grow in Southeast Asia, it is expected that the expenditures on skim milk powder (SMP) will grow. In this study, we examined the competitiveness of US SMP in the Southeast Asian market with respect to other leading dairy exporters, including the European Union (EU-28), New Zealand, and Australia. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2015, Rotterdam models were used to estimate import demands for SMP in 4 Southeast Asian countries. In a scenario using annual averages from 2013 to 2015 as a baseline, our findings suggest that a 10% reduction in the US price of SMP would cause Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines SMP imports from the United States to increase by 3.96, 0.44, 2.68, and 1.94 kt, respectively. Under the same scenario, the value of US SMP imports would decrease for Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines by $4.12, $2.93, and $2.48 million, respectively; however, the value of US SMP to Singapore would increase by $0.20 million. Singapore and Indonesia expenditures for the US SMP are elastic, which means that as expenditure and population in Southeast Asia continue to grow, a 1% increase in SMP expenditure in Singapore and Indonesia would result in 1.25 and 1.20% increases in US SMP exports.

Assessing economic and demographic factors that influence United States dairy demand.

Low-fat dairy products are key components of a healthy diet for all Americans. As the USDA increases its focus on nutrition and healthy eating, it is important to understand the underlying demands for dairy products, both the healthy and the less healthy ones. The consumption of fluid milk products has decreased over the last decade, whereas milk used for manufactured dairy products such as cheese, ice cream, yogurt, and butter, and for use as an ingredient in other food products, has risen. The objective of this study is to determine the effects of changes in demographic variables, retail prices, and total dairy expenditure on at-home consumption of dairy products, using purchase data from Nielsen 2007 Homescan (ACNielsen, New York, NY) data. To derive the demand elasticities for 16 products, a censored Almost Ideal Demand System model is used. Results reveal that demographic variables do have effects on the purchase of the 16 products, and own-price elasticities are 1 or greater for all 16 products for both uncompensated and compensated elasticities except 4: ice cream, refrigerated yogurt, processed cheese, and margarine. A substitution relationship exists among all fluid milk categories, natural and processed cheese, low-fat ice cream, and refrigerated yogurt, butter, and margarine.

An analysis of at-home demand for ice cream in the United States.

Ice cream has been manufactured commercially in the United States since the middle of the 19th century. Ice cream and frozen dessert products comprise an important and relatively stable component of the United States dairy industry. As with many other dairy products, ice cream is differentiated in several dimensions. A censored translog demand system model was employed to analyze purchases of 3 ice cream product categories. The objective of this study was to determine the effect that changes in retail prices and consumer income have on at-home ice cream consumption. The analysis was based on Nielsen 2005 home scan retail data and used marital status, age, race, education, female employment status, and location in the estimations of aggregate demand elasticities. Results revealed that price and consumer income were the main determinants of demand for ice cream products. Calculated own-price elasticities indicated relatively elastic responses by consumers for all categories except for compensated bulk ice cream. All expenditure elasticities were inelastic except for bulk ice cream, and most of the ice cream categories were substitutes. Ongoing efforts to examine consumer demand for these products will assist milk producers, dairy processors and manufacturers, and dairy marketers as they face changing consumer responses to food and diet issues.