Long-term effects of aromatase inhibitor withdrawal on bone mineral density in early breast cancer patients: 10-year follow-up results of the BREX study.

PURPOSE: We aimed to provide long-term bone mineral density (BMD) data on early breast cancer patients of the BREX (Breast Cancer and Exercise) study. The effects of exercise and adjuvant endocrine treatment 10 years after randomization were analyzed, with special emphasis on aromatase inhibitor (AI) therapy discontinuation at 5 years. METHODS: The BREX study randomized 573 pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer patients into a 1-year supervised exercise program or a control group. 372 patients were included into the current follow-up analysis. BMD (g/cm2) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at lumbar spine (LS), left femoral neck (FN), and the total hip. Separate groups were displayed according to baseline menopausal status, and whether the patient had discontinued AI therapy at 5 years or not. RESULTS: The BMD change from 5 to 10 years did not significantly differ between the two randomized arms. AI discontinuation at 5 years had statistically significant BMD effects. The FN BMD continued to decrease in patients who discontinued AI therapy during the first 5-year off-treatment, but the decrease was three-fold less than in patients without AI withdrawal (- 1.4% v. - 3.8%). The LS BMD increased (+ 2.6%) in patients with AI withdrawal during the first 5 years following treatment discontinuation, while a BMD decrease (-1.3%) was seen in patients without AI withdrawal. CONCLUSION: This study is to our knowledge the first to quantify the long-term impact of AI withdrawal on BMD. Bone loss associated with AI therapy seems partially reversible after stopping treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/ (Identifier Number NCT00639210).

Ultra-low-dose computed tomography and chest X-ray in follow-up of high-grade soft tissue sarcoma-a prospective comparative study.

Ultra-low-dose computed tomography (ULD-CT) may combine the high sensitivity of conventional computed tomography (CT) in detecting sarcoma pulmonary metastasis, with a radiation dose in the same magnitude as chest X-ray (CXR). Fifty patients with non-metastatic high-grade soft tissue sarcoma treated with curative intention were recruited. Their follow-up involved both CXR and ULD-CT to evaluate their different sensitivity. Suspected findings were confirmed by conventional CT if necessary. Patients with isolated pulmonary metastases were treated with surgery or stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) with curative intent if possible. The median effective dose from a single ULD-CT study was 0.27 mSv (range 0.12 to 0.89 mSv). Nine patients were diagnosed with asymptomatic lung metastases during the follow-up. Only three of them were visible in CXR and all nine in ULD-CT. CXR had therefore only a 33% sensitivity compared to ULD-CT. Four patients were operated, and one had SBRT to all pulmonary lesions. Eight of them, however, died of the disease. Two patients developed symptomatic metastatic recurrence involving extrapulmonary sites+/-the lungs between two imaging rounds. ULD-CT has higher sensitivity for the detection of sarcoma pulmonary metastasis than CXR, with a radiation dose considerably lower than conventional CT.Clinical trial registration: NCT05813808. 04-14-2023.

Validation of primary and outcome data quality in a Swedish population-based breast cancer quality registry.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer quality registries are of great importance for the improvement of cancer care. However, little is known about the quality of recurrence data in cancer quality registries. The aim of this study was to evaluate data quality in the regional Breast Cancer Quality Registry of Central Sweden, with emphasis on the validity of recorded information on recurrence. METHODS: Validation by re-abstraction was performed on a random sample of 800 women with primary invasive breast cancer stage I-III diagnosed between 1993 and 2010, of which 400 had at least one registered recurrence and 400 had no registered recurrence. Registry data were compared with data from medical records. Exact agreement, correlation and kappa values, sensitivity and specificity were calculated. RESULTS: Seven hundred forty-seven women (93%) were available for analysis. Exact agreement was high for diagnostics, tumor characteristics, surgery, and adjuvant oncological treatment (90% or more for most variables). The registry's sensitivity was low for regional recurrence (47%), but higher for local and distant recurrence (80% and 75%), whereas specificity was overall high (≥ 95%). Combining all recurrence categories irrespective of localization improved sensitivity to 90% with a specificity of 91%. In 87% of women, the date of first recurrence according to medical records fell within ± 90 days of the date recorded in the registry. CONCLUSIONS: While the quality of data in the regional Breast Cancer Quality Registry was generally high, data accuracy on recurrences was lower. The overall precision of identifying any recurrence, irrespective of localization, was high. However, the accuracy of classification of recurrences (local, regional or distant) was lower, with evidence of underreporting for each of the recurrence categories. Given the importance of recurrence-related outcomes in the assessment of quality of care, efforts should be made to improve the reporting of recurrences.

Association of clinicopathologic variables and patient preference with the choice of surgical treatment for early-stage breast cancer: A registry-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Observational studies suggest that breast conserving surgery (BCS) and radiotherapy (RT) offers superior survival compared to mastectomy. The aim was to compare patient and tumour characteristics in women with invasive breast cancer ≤30 mm treated with either BCS or mastectomy, and to explore the underlying reason for choosing mastectomy. METHODS: Women registered with breast cancer ≤30 mm and ≤4 positive axillary lymph nodes in the Swedish National Breast Cancer Register 2013-2016 were included. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association of tumour and patient characteristics with receiving a mastectomy vs. BCS. RESULTS: Of 1860 breast cancers in 1825 women, 1346 were treated by BCS and 514 by mastectomy. Adjuvant RT was given to 1309 women (97.1 %) after BCS and 146 (27.6 %) after mastectomy. Variables associated with receiving a mastectomy vs. BCS included clinical detection (Odds Ratio (OR) 4.15 (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 3.35-5.14)) and clinical stage (T2 vs. T1 (OR 3.68 (95 % CI 2.90-4.68)), N1 vs. N0 (OR 2.02 (95 % CI 1.38-2.96)). Women receiving mastectomy more often had oestrogen receptor negative, HER2 positive tumours of higher histological grade. The most common reported reason for mastectomy was large or multifocal tumours (53.5 %), followed by patient preference (34.5 %). CONCLUSION: Choice of surgery is strongly associated with key prognostic factors among women undergoing BCS with RT compared to mastectomy. Failure to control for all relevant confounders may bias results in outcome studies in favour of BCS.

NTHL1 is a recessive cancer susceptibility gene.

In search of novel breast cancer (BC) risk variants, we performed a whole-exome sequencing and variant analysis of 69 Finnish BC patients as well as analysed loss-of-function variants identified in DNA repair genes in the Finns from the Genome Aggregation Database. Additionally, we carried out a validation study of SERPINA3 c.918-1G>C, recently suggested for BC predisposition. We estimated the frequencies of 41 rare candidate variants in 38 genes by genotyping them in 2482-4101 BC patients and in 1273-3985 controls. We further evaluated all coding variants in the candidate genes in a dataset of 18,786 BC patients and 182,927 controls from FinnGen. None of the variants associated significantly with cancer risk in the primary BC series; however, in the FinnGen data, NTHL1 c.244C>T p.(Gln82Ter) associated with BC with a high risk for homozygous (OR = 44.7 [95% CI 6.90-290], P = 6.7 × 10-5) and a low risk for heterozygous women (OR = 1.39 [1.18-1.64], P = 7.8 × 10-5). Furthermore, the results suggested a high risk of colorectal, urinary tract, and basal-cell skin cancer for homozygous individuals, supporting NTHL1 as a recessive multi-tumour susceptibility gene. No significant association with BC risk was detected for SERPINA3 or any other evaluated gene.

Angiosarcoma in the breast: a population-based cohort from Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Breast angiosarcoma is a rare disease mostly observed in breast cancer (BC) patients who have previously received radiotherapy (RT). Little is known about angiosarcoma aetiology, management, and outcome. The study aim was to estimate risk and to characterize breast angiosarcoma in a Swedish population-based cohort. METHODS: The Swedish Cancer Registry was searched for breast angiosarcoma between 1992 and 2018 in three Swedish healthcare regions (population 5.5 million). Information on previous BC, RT, management, and outcome were retrieved from medical records. RESULTS: Overall, 49 angiosarcomas located in the breast, chest wall, or axilla were identified, 8 primary and 41 secondary to BC treatment. Median age was 51 and 73 years, respectively. The minimum latency period of secondary angiosarcoma after a BC diagnosis was 4 years (range 4-21 years). The cumulative incidence of angiosarcoma after breast RT increased continuously, reaching 1.4‰ after 20 years. Among 44 women with angiosarcoma treated by surgery, 29 developed subsequent local recurrence. Median recurrence-free survival was 3.4 and 1.8 years for primary and secondary angiosarcoma, respectively. The 5-year overall survival probability for the whole cohort was 50 per cent (95 per cent c.i., 21 per cent-100 per cent) for primary breast angiosarcoma and 35 per cent (95 per cent c.i., 23 per cent-54 per cent) for secondary angiosarcoma. CONCLUSION: Breast angiosarcoma is a rare disease strongly associated with a history of previous BC RT. Overall survival is poor with high rates of local recurrences and distant metastasis.

Effects of letrozole on serum estradiol and estrone in postmenopausal breast cancer patients and tolerability of treatment: a prospective trial using a highly sensitive LC-MS/MS (liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry) method for estrogen measurement.

PURPOSE: To analyze serum estradiol (E2) and estrone (E1) during letrozole treatment and their association to Quality of Life (QoL) and side-effects. METHODS: Postmenopausal breast cancer patients starting adjuvant letrozole were eligible. Serum samples were taken at baseline, three, and 12 months. E2 and FSH were measured with routine chemiluminescent immunoassays. E2 and E1 were analyzed after trial completion with a highly sensitive liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method (LC-MS/MS) with lower limits of quantification (LLOQ) of 5 pmol/L. QoL was measured at baseline and at 12 months with the EORTC QLQ-C30 and QLQ-BR23 and the Women's Health questionnaires, and menopause-related symptoms with the modified Kupperman Index. RESULTS: Of 100 screened patients 90 completed the trial. Baseline mean LC-MS/MS E2 and E1 were 12 pmol/L (range < 5-57) and 66 pmol/L (< 5-226), respectively. E2 levels measured by immunoassay and LC-MS/MS showed no correlation. E2 and E1 were completely suppressed by letrozole except for one occasion (E1 11 pmol/L at 3 months). Pain, side effects of systemic therapy, vasomotor symptoms, joint and muscle aches, and vaginal dryness increased during letrozole treatment. A high baseline E2 was significantly associated with increased aching joints and muscles, but not with the other side effects. CONCLUSIONS: Letrozole supresses E2 and E1 completely below the LLOQ of the LC-MS/MS in postmenopausal women. High pre-treatment E2 levels were associated with more joint and muscle pain during letrozole. Automated immunoassays are unsuitable for E2 monitoring during letrozole therapy due to poor sensitivity.

Digital solution in the follow-up of early breast cancer a randomized study.

BACKGROUND: After primary treatment, patients with early breast cancer (EBC) are followed-up for at least 5 years. At the Helsinki University Hospital (HUS) surveillance includes appointments at 1, 3 and 5 years, and between pre-planned visits a phone call service operated by a nurse practitioner for counseling about symptoms related to side-effects or potential recurrence. In 2015 HUS launched a digital solution for cancer patients. This study was designed to find out patient preference, Health related (HR) quality of life (QOL) and satisfaction with a digital solution compared to a phone call service during the first year of follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients with EBC were randomized at the final visit of radiotherapy to surveillance by phone calls or by the digital Noona solution during the first year outside pre-planned visits. After six months the groups were crossed over to the other arm. Primary endpoint was patient preference for either follow-up method among those who had contacted the study nurse at least once by both phone service and digital solution. RESULTS: Out of the 765 patients randomized, 142 had contacted the hospital with both methods and were eligible for inclusion in the analyses of the present study. Out of the 142 patients, 56 preferred phone calls, 43 the digital solution while 43 considered both modalities equal. Preference for the digital solution was higher among patients aged 65 or less. There were no differences in HR QoL or overall satisfaction between the modalities. However, the patients rated the timeliness of response better while using the digital solution. CONCLUSION: Of the patients 30% preferred the digital solution, 40% phone calls while 30% found them equal as the primary follow-up method for EBC during the first year outside pre-planned visits. There is a need to include also digital solutions in surveillance of EBC. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT04980989.

Local relapse of soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities or trunk wall operated on with wide margins without radiation therapy.

BACKGROUND: The quality of surgical margins is the most important factor affecting local control in soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Despite this, there is no universally accepted consensus on the definition of an adequate surgical margin or on which patients should be offered radiation therapy. This study focuses on local control and its prognostic factors in patients with trunk wall and extremity STS. METHODS: Adult patients with a final diagnosis of trunk wall or extremity STS referred to a single tertiary referral centre between August 1987 and December 2016 were identified from a prospective institutional database. Patients were treated according to a protocol instituted in 1987. The classification of surgical margins and indications for radiation therapy were based on anatomy and strict definition of surgical margins as metric distance to the resection border. Local treatment was defined as adequate if patients received either surgery with wide margins alone or marginal surgery combined with radiation therapy. Margins were considered wide if the tumour was excised with pathological margins greater than 2.5 cm or with an uninvolved natural anatomical barrier. After treatment, patients were followed up with local imaging and chest X-ray: 5 years for high-grade STS, 10 years for low-grade STS. RESULTS: A total of 812 patients were included with a median follow-up of 5.8 (range 0.5-19.5) years. Forty-four patients had a grade 1 tumour: there were no instances of recurrence in this group thus they were excluded from further analysis. Five-year local control in the 768 patients with grade 2-3 STS was 90.1 per cent in patients receiving adequate local treatment according to the protocol. Altogether, 333 patients (43.4 per cent) were treated with wide surgery alone and their 5-year local control rate was 91.1 per cent. Among patients treated with wide surgery alone, deep location was the only factor adversely associated with local relapse risk in multivariable analysis; 5-year local control was 95.3 per cent in superficial and 88.3 per cent in deep-sited sarcomas (hazards ratio 3.154 (95% c.i. 1.265 to 7.860), P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: A high local control rate is achievable with surgery alone for a substantial proportion of patients with STS of the extremities or superficial trunk wall.

Patterns of Metastatic Recurrence of Genetically Confirmed Myxoid Liposarcoma.

BACKGROUND: Most sarcomas metastasize predominantly to the lungs, and chest x-ray, or computed tomography, is the most commonly used staging investigation. Myxoid liposarcomas (MLSs) are rare tumors with a tendency to metastasize to extrapulmonary loci. The aim of this study was to assess the locations of the first metastases in MLS patients, to guide the design of effective staging and follow-up imaging protocols. METHODS: Patients treated for MLS between 1987 and 2017 were identified in a prospectively maintained register. Histology of the tumors was reassessed. In addition, the presence of one of the pathognomonic gene translocations was confirmed, uniquely for a retrospective series. The surgical and oncological outcomes were reviewed. A comprehensive review of the literature was performed on the metastatic pattern of MLS, including series with 10 or more MLS patients with metastatic disease. RESULTS: A total of 32 patients with genetically confirmed MLS were identified, with a median follow-up of 7.6 years. Seven patients (22%) developed metastatic disease, five initially intra-abdominally and only one to the lungs. The comprehensive review included 14 series with 1853 patients, 348 (19%) of whom had metastases. The location of the first metastases was soft tissues in 32% of patients, intra-abdominal in 26%, pulmonary in 24%, and bone in 17%. CONCLUSIONS: MLSs metastasize often intra-abdominally and to extra-abdominal soft tissues. Thus, whole-body imaging may be indicated during the initial assessment and follow-up of these patients.

The impact of coding germline variants on contralateral breast cancer risk and survival.

Evidence linking coding germline variants in breast cancer (BC)-susceptibility genes other than BRCA1, BRCA2, and CHEK2 with contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) is scarce. The aim of this study was to assess the association of protein-truncating variants (PTVs) and rare missense variants (MSVs) in nine known (ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, PALB2, RAD51C, RAD51D, and TP53) and 25 suspected BC-susceptibility genes with CBC risk and BCSS. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with Cox regression models. Analyses included 34,401 women of European ancestry diagnosed with BC, including 676 CBCs and 3,449 BC deaths; the median follow-up was 10.9 years. Subtype analyses were based on estrogen receptor (ER) status of the first BC. Combined PTVs and pathogenic/likely pathogenic MSVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, and TP53 and PTVs in CHEK2 and PALB2 were associated with increased CBC risk [HRs (95% CIs): 2.88 (1.70-4.87), 2.31 (1.39-3.85), 8.29 (2.53-27.21), 2.25 (1.55-3.27), and 2.67 (1.33-5.35), respectively]. The strongest evidence of association with BCSS was for PTVs and pathogenic/likely pathogenic MSVs in BRCA2 (ER-positive BC) and TP53 and PTVs in CHEK2 [HRs (95% CIs): 1.53 (1.13-2.07), 2.08 (0.95-4.57), and 1.39 (1.13-1.72), respectively, after adjusting for tumor characteristics and treatment]. HRs were essentially unchanged when censoring for CBC, suggesting that these associations are not completely explained by increased CBC risk, tumor characteristics, or treatment. There was limited evidence of associations of PTVs and/or rare MSVs with CBC risk or BCSS for the 25 suspected BC genes. The CBC findings are relevant to treatment decisions, follow-up, and screening after BC diagnosis.

Aggregation tests identify new gene associations with breast cancer in populations with diverse ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Low-frequency variants play an important role in breast cancer (BC) susceptibility. Gene-based methods can increase power by combining multiple variants in the same gene and help identify target genes. METHODS: We evaluated the potential of gene-based aggregation in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium cohorts including 83,471 cases and 59,199 controls. Low-frequency variants were aggregated for individual genes' coding and regulatory regions. Association results in European ancestry samples were compared to single-marker association results in the same cohort. Gene-based associations were also combined in meta-analysis across individuals with European, Asian, African, and Latin American and Hispanic ancestry. RESULTS: In European ancestry samples, 14 genes were significantly associated (q < 0.05) with BC. Of those, two genes, FMNL3 (P = 6.11 × 10-6) and AC058822.1 (P = 1.47 × 10-4), represent new associations. High FMNL3 expression has previously been linked to poor prognosis in several other cancers. Meta-analysis of samples with diverse ancestry discovered further associations including established candidate genes ESR1 and CBLB. Furthermore, literature review and database query found further support for a biologically plausible link with cancer for genes CBLB, FMNL3, FGFR2, LSP1, MAP3K1, and SRGAP2C. CONCLUSIONS: Using extended gene-based aggregation tests including coding and regulatory variation, we report identification of plausible target genes for previously identified single-marker associations with BC as well as the discovery of novel genes implicated in BC development. Including multi ancestral cohorts in this study enabled the identification of otherwise missed disease associations as ESR1 (P = 1.31 × 10-5), demonstrating the importance of diversifying study cohorts.

Pathogenic Variant Spectrum in Breast Cancer Risk Genes in Finnish Patients.

Recurrent pathogenic variants have been detected in several breast and ovarian cancer (BC/OC) risk genes in the Finnish population. We conducted a gene-panel sequencing and copy number variant (CNV) analysis to define a more comprehensive spectrum of pathogenic variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, CHEK2, ATM, BARD1, RAD51C, RAD51D, BRIP1, and FANCM genes in Finnish BC patients. The combined frequency of pathogenic variants in the BRCA1/2 genes was 1.8% in 1356 unselected patients, whereas variants in the other genes were detected altogether in 8.3% of 1356 unselected patients and in 12.9% of 699 familial patients. CNVs were detected in 0.3% of both 1137 unselected and 612 familial patients. A few variants covered most of the pathogenic burden in the studied genes. Of the BRCA1/2 carriers, 70.8% had 1 of 10 recurrent variants. In the other genes combined, 92.1% of the carrier patients had at least 1 of 11 recurrent variants. In particular, PALB2 c.1592delT and CHEK2 c.1100delC accounted for 88.9% and 82.9%, respectively, of the pathogenic variation in each gene. Our results highlight the importance of founder variants in the BC risk genes in the Finnish population and could be used in the designing of population screening for the risk variants.

Physical activity, sedentary time and breast cancer risk: a Mendelian randomisation study.

OBJECTIVES: Physical inactivity and sedentary behaviour are associated with higher breast cancer risk in observational studies, but ascribing causality is difficult. Mendelian randomisation (MR) assesses causality by simulating randomised trial groups using genotype. We assessed whether lifelong physical activity or sedentary time, assessed using genotype, may be causally associated with breast cancer risk overall, pre/post-menopause, and by case-groups defined by tumour characteristics. METHODS: We performed two-sample inverse-variance-weighted MR using individual-level Breast Cancer Association Consortium case-control data from 130 957 European-ancestry women (69 838 invasive cases), and published UK Biobank data (n=91 105-377 234). Genetic instruments were single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated in UK Biobank with wrist-worn accelerometer-measured overall physical activity (nsnps=5) or sedentary time (nsnps=6), or accelerometer-measured (nsnps=1) or self-reported (nsnps=5) vigorous physical activity. RESULTS: Greater genetically-predicted overall activity was associated with lower breast cancer overall risk (OR=0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42 to 0.83 per-standard deviation (SD;~8 milligravities acceleration)) and for most case-groups. Genetically-predicted vigorous activity was associated with lower risk of pre/perimenopausal breast cancer (OR=0.62; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.87,≥3 vs. 0 self-reported days/week), with consistent estimates for most case-groups. Greater genetically-predicted sedentary time was associated with higher hormone-receptor-negative tumour risk (OR=1.77; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.92 per-SD (~7% time spent sedentary)), with elevated estimates for most case-groups. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses examining pleiotropy (including weighted-median-MR, MR-Egger). CONCLUSION: Our study provides strong evidence that greater overall physical activity, greater vigorous activity, and lower sedentary time are likely to reduce breast cancer risk. More widespread adoption of active lifestyles may reduce the burden from the most common cancer in women.

PredictCBC-2.0: a contralateral breast cancer risk prediction model developed and validated in ~ 200,000 patients.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk is challenging due to moderate performances of the known risk factors. We aimed to improve our previous risk prediction model (PredictCBC) by updated follow-up and including additional risk factors. METHODS: We included data from 207,510 invasive breast cancer patients participating in 23 studies. In total, 8225 CBC events occurred over a median follow-up of 10.2 years. In addition to the previously included risk factors, PredictCBC-2.0 included CHEK2 c.1100delC, a 313 variant polygenic risk score (PRS-313), body mass index (BMI), and parity. Fine and Gray regression was used to fit the model. Calibration and a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years were assessed to determine the performance of the models. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of PredictCBC-2.0 and previous PredictCBC models. RESULTS: The discrimination of PredictCBC-2.0 at 10 years was higher than PredictCBC with an AUC of 0.65 (95% prediction intervals (PI) 0.56-0.74) versus 0.63 (95%PI 0.54-0.71). PredictCBC-2.0 was well calibrated with an observed/expected ratio at 10 years of 0.92 (95%PI 0.34-2.54). Decision curve analysis for contralateral preventive mastectomy (CPM) showed the potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-2.0 between thresholds of 4 and 12% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers. CONCLUSIONS: Additional genetic information beyond BRCA1/2 germline mutations improved CBC risk prediction and might help tailor clinical decision-making toward CPM or alternative preventive strategies. Identifying patients who benefit from CPM, especially in the general breast cancer population, remains challenging.

Correlation of tumour subtype with long-term outcome in small breast carcinomas: a Swedish population-based retrospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: To investigate if molecular subtype is associated with outcome in stage 1 breast cancer (BC). METHODS: Tissue samples from 445 women with node-negative BC ≤ 15 mm, treated in 1986-2004, were classified into surrogate molecular subtypes [Luminal A-like, Luminal B-like (HER2-), HER2-positive, and triple negative breast cancer (TNBC)]. Information on treatment, recurrences, and survival were gathered from medical records. RESULTS: Tumour subtype was not associated with overall survival (OS). Luminal B-like (HER2-) and TNBC were associated with higher incidence of distant metastasis at 20 years (Hazard ratio (HR) 2.26; 95% CI 1.08-4.75 and HR 3.24; 95% CI 1.17-9.00, respectively). Luminal B-like (HER2-) and TNBC patients also had worse breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), although not statistically significant (HR 1.53; 95% CI 0.70-3.33 and HR 1.89; 95% CI 0.60-5.93, respectively). HER2-positive BC was not associated with poor outcome despite no patient receiving HER2-targeted therapy, with most of these tumours being ER+. CONCLUSIONS: Stage 1 TNBC or Luminal B-like (HER2-) tumours behave more aggressively. Women with HER2+/ER+ tumours do not have an increased risk of distant metastasis or death, absent targeted treatment.

Incorporating progesterone receptor expression into the PREDICT breast prognostic model.

BACKGROUND: Predict Breast (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early invasive breast cancer. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of progesterone receptor (PR) status into a new version of PREDICT and to compare its performance to the current version (2.2). METHOD: The prognostic effect of PR status was based on the analysis of data from 45,088 European patients with breast cancer from 49 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratio for PR status. Data from a New Zealand study of 11,365 patients with early invasive breast cancer were used for external validation. Model calibration and discrimination were used to test the model performance. RESULTS: Having a PR-positive tumour was associated with a 23% and 28% lower risk of dying from breast cancer for women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative and ER-positive breast cancer, respectively. The area under the ROC curve increased with the addition of PR status from 0.807 to 0.809 for patients with ER-negative tumours (p = 0.023) and from 0.898 to 0.902 for patients with ER-positive tumours (p = 2.3 × 10-6) in the New Zealand cohort. Model calibration was modest with 940 observed deaths compared to 1151 predicted. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of the prognostic effect of PR status to PREDICT Breast has led to an improvement of model performance and more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients. Further studies should determine whether the baseline hazard function requires recalibration.