Trajectories of body mass index across the lifecourse and associations with post-menopausal breast cancer by estrogen receptor status.

BACKGROUND: Associations between a high body mass index (BMI) at single timepoints during child- and adulthood and risks of post-menopausal breast cancer are well-established, but associations with BMI across the lifecourse remains largely unknown. Therefore, we examined whether lifecourse BMI trajectories were associated with risks of post-menopausal breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. METHODS: We included 6698 Danish women born 1930-1946. Information on BMI at ages 6-15 years came from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register, and information on BMI at ages 20, 30, 40, 50 and/or 50-64 years came from the Diet, Cancer and Health cohort. Breast cancer cases (n = 577) were identified in the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group database. Six BMI trajectories were identified using latent class trajectory modelling. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression models. RESULTS: Compared to women with a trajectory characterized by an average BMI gain across life, women with the two trajectories with steep increases in BMI during childhood and adolescence that thereafter largely stabilized, had lower risks of post-menopausal breast cancer and ER-positive tumors. The adjusted HRs for ER-positive tumors were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.47-0.95) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.46-1.01), respectively. In contrast, women with a trajectory with a low gain in BMI during childhood and adolescence followed by a subsequent steep increase during adulthood, had higher risks of post-menopausal breast cancer and ER-positive tumors when compared to women with an average BMI gain. The adjusted HR for ER-positive tumors was 1.28 (95% CI: 0.98-1.67). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the timing of excess gain in BMI across the lifecourse impacts subsequent post-menopausal breast cancer risks. Thus, the BMI development across life is likely useful in the identification of women at increased risks of post-menopausal breast cancer.

Childhood body mass index trajectories, adult-onset type 2 diabetes, and obesity-related cancers.

BACKGROUND: Elevated childhood body mass index (BMI), commonly examined as a "once-only" value, increases the risk of cancer and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adulthood. Continuous exposure to adiposity during childhood may further increase cancer risk. We examined whether longitudinal childhood BMI trajectories were associated with adult obesity-related cancer and the role of adult-onset T2D in these associations. METHODS: Five sex-specific latent class BMI trajectories were generated for 301 927 children (149 325 girls) aged 6-15 years from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register. Information on obesity-related cancers and T2D was obtained from national health registers. Incidence rate ratios (IRR), cumulative incidences, and confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Poisson regressions. RESULTS: Compared with the average childhood BMI trajectory (containing approximately 40% of individuals), the rate of obesity-related cancer (excluding breast cancer) increased with higher childhood BMI trajectories among women. The highest rates occurred in the overweight (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.38) and obesity (IRR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.53 to 2.08) BMI trajectories. Similar patterns were observed among men. In contrast, women with the obesity childhood BMI trajectory had the lowest rate of pre- and postmenopausal breast cancer (IRR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.43 to 0.80, and IRR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.30 to 0.57, respectively). For all trajectories, the cumulative risk of obesity-related cancer increased with adult-onset T2D. CONCLUSION: Consistent childhood overweight or obesity may increase the rates of adult obesity-related cancer and decrease the rates of breast cancer. Adult-onset T2D conferred additional risk for obesity-related cancer, but the effect did not differ across childhood BMI trajectories.

Childhood body mass index trajectories and associations with adult-onset chronic kidney disease in Denmark: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although excess adult adiposity is a strong risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD), evidence for associations with early life body size is limited. We investigated whether childhood body mass index (BMI) trajectories are associated with adult-onset CKD and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) using a population-based cohort. Further, we examined the role of adult-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) in these associations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We included 151,506 boys and 148,590 girls from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register, born 1930 to 1987 with information on measured weights and heights at ages 6 to 15 years. Five sex-specific childhood BMI trajectories were analyzed. Information on the main outcomes CKD and ESKD, as well as T2D, came from national health registers. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson regression adjusted for year of birth. During a median of 30.8 person-years of follow-up, 5,968 men and 3,903 women developed CKD and 977 men and 543 women developed ESKD. For both sexes, the rates of CKD and ESKD increased significantly with higher child BMI trajectories in comparison with the average BMI trajectory (40% to 43% of individuals) and the below-average BMI trajectory (21% to 23% of individuals) had the lowest rates. When including T2D, most associations were significant and men (IRR = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.72) and women (IRR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.28 to 1.86) with the obese childhood BMI trajectory (2% of individuals) had significantly higher CKD rates than the average BMI trajectory, whereas for ESKD, the associations were positive, but nonsignificant, for men (IRR = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.83 to 2.31) but significant for women (IRR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.25 to 3.11) with the obese BMI trajectory. A main study limitation is the use of only hospital-based CKD diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with childhood BMI trajectories above average had higher rates of CKD and ESKD than those with an average childhood BMI trajectory. When including T2D, most associations were significant, particularly with CKD, emphasizing the potential information that the early appearance of above-average BMI growth patterns provide in relation to adult-onset CKD beyond the information provided by T2D development.

Body mass index trajectories in childhood and incidence rates of type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease in adulthood: A cohort study.

AIMS: We examined associations between five body mass index (BMI) trajectories from ages 6-15 years and register-based adult-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and coronary heart disease (CHD) with and without adjustment for adult BMI. METHODS: Child and adult BMI came from two Danish cohorts and 13,205 and 13,438 individuals were included in T2D and CHD analyses, respectively. Trajectories were estimated by latent class modelling. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated with Poisson regression. RESULTS: In models without adult BMI, compared to the lowest trajectory, among men the T2D IRRs were 0.92 (95 %CI:0.77-1.09) for the second lowest trajectory and 1.51 (95 %CI:0.71-3.20) for the highest trajectory. The corresponding IRRs in women were 0.92 (95 %CI:0.74-1.16) and 3.58 (95 %CI:2.30-5.57). In models including adult BMI, compared to the lowest trajectory, T2D IRRs in men were 0.57 (95 %CI:0.47-0.68) for the second lowest trajectory and 0.26 (95 %CI:0.12-0.56) for the highest trajectory. The corresponding IRRs in women were 0.60 (95 %CI:0.48-0.75) and 0.59 (95 %CI:0.36-0.96). The associations were similar in direction, but not statistically significant, for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence rates of adult-onset T2D were greater for a high child BMI trajectory than a low child BMI trajectory, but not in models that included adult BMI.

Trajectories of Infant Weight Gain from Birth to 12 Months and Adult-Onset Coronary Heart Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations between infant weight gain trajectories and coronary heart disease (CHD). STUDY DESIGN: We followed 3645 Danish individuals born between 1959 and 1961 with information on weight at birth and at age 2 weeks and 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, or 12 months. Sex-specific weight trajectories were generated using latent class modeling. Cases of CHD (n = 279) were identified from national health registers. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by Cox regression with sequential adjustment for sex, socioeconomic status, prepregnancy body mass index, maternal smoking, preterm birth, parity, and birth weight. RESULTS: We identified 5 trajectories of weight development in infancy in our cohort: very low-moderate increase (11.5% of the population), low-marked increase (13.9%), low-stable increase (32.4%), average-stable increase (29.8%), and high-moderate increase (12.4%). Compared with the average-stable increasing trajectory, having a very low-moderately increasing weight trajectory in infancy was associated with a higher frequency of adult CHD (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.04-2.33). The higher frequency remained after adjustment for maternal factors but was slightly attenuated after additional adjustment for preterm birth and parity (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 0.91-2.23) and disappeared after adjustment for birth weight (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.44-1.37). The associations with CHD did not differ between the other trajectories and the average-stable increasing trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: Although a pattern of very low-moderate increasing weight during infancy was associated with a higher frequency of adult CHD, the association did not persist after adjustment for birth weight, highlighting the importance of prenatal exposures.

Instrumental variable analysis using offspring BMI in childhood as an indicator of parental BMI in relation to mortality.

Childhood BMI shows associations with adult mortality, but these may be influenced by effects of ill health in childhood on BMI and later mortality. To avoid this, we used offspring childhood BMI as an instrumental variable (IV) for own BMI in relation to mortality and compared it with conventional associations of own childhood BMI and own mortality. We included 36,097 parent-offspring pairs with measured heights and weights from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register and register-based information on death. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using adjusted Cox regression models. For all-cause mortality, per zBMI at age 7 the conventional HR = 1.07 (95%CI: 1.04-1.09) in women and 1.02 (95%CI: 0.92-1.14) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.23 (95%CI: 1.15-1.32) in women and 1.05 (95%CI: 0.94-1.17) in men. Per zBMI at age 13, the conventional HR = 1.11 (95%CI: 1.08-1.15) in women and 1.03 (95%CI: 0.99-1.06) in men, whereas the IV HR = 1.30 (95%CI: 1.19-1.42) in women and 1.15 (95%CI: 1.04-1.29) in men. Only conventional models showed indications of J-shaped associations. Our IV analyses suggest that there is a causal relationship between BMI and mortality that is positive at both high and low BMI values.

Association of Cycling With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Among Persons With Diabetes: The European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study.

Importance: Premature death from all causes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes is higher among persons with diabetes. Objective: To investigate the association between time spent cycling and all-cause and CVD mortality among persons with diabetes, as well as to evaluate the association between change in time spent cycling and risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included 7459 adults with diabetes from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Questionnaires regarding medical history, sociodemographic, and lifestyle information were administered in 10 Western European countries from 1992 through 2000 (baseline examination) and at a second examination 5 years after baseline. A total of 5423 participants with diabetes completed both examinations. The final updated primary analysis was conducted on November 13, 2020. Exposures: The primary exposure was self-reported time spent cycling per week at the baseline examination. The secondary exposure was change in cycling status from baseline to the second examination. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary and secondary outcomes were all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively, adjusted for other physical activity modalities, diabetes duration, and sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Results: Of the 7459 adults with diabetes included in the analysis, the mean (SD) age was 55.9 (7.7) years, and 3924 (52.6%) were female. During 110 944 person-years of follow-up, 1673 deaths from all causes were registered. Compared with the reference group of people who reported no cycling at baseline (0 min/wk), the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 0.78 (95% CI, 0.61-0.99), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.65-0.88), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.57-0.82), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.63-0.91) for cycling 1 to 59, 60 to 149, 150 to 299, and 300 or more min/wk, respectively. In an analysis of change in time spent cycling with 57 802 person-years of follow-up, a total of 975 deaths from all causes were recorded. Compared with people who reported no cycling at both examinations, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.71-1.14) in those who cycled and then stopped, 0.65 (95% CI, 0.46-0.92) in initial noncyclists who started cycling, and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.53-0.80) for people who reported cycling at both examinations. Similar results were observed for CVD mortality. Conclusion and Relevance: In this cohort study, cycling was associated with lower all-cause and CVD mortality risk among people with diabetes independent of practicing other types of physical activity. Participants who took up cycling between the baseline and second examination had a considerably lower risk of both all-cause and CVD mortality compared with consistent noncyclists.

Associations between body mass index and height during childhood and adolescence and the risk of coronary heart disease in adulthood: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Body mass index (BMI) at child and adolescent ages is positively associated with adult coronary heart disease (CHD) whereas height at these ages may be inversely associated with CHD. However, potential effects of age, sex, and socioeconomic status on associations between BMI and CHD are less investigated. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of BMI and height at ages 2-19 years in relation to adult CHD and examined effects of age, sex, socioeconomic status, and other factors. Twenty-two studies on BMI and five on height were included, comprising 5,538,319 individuals and 69,830 CHD events. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted. Child and adolescent BMI were positively associated with CHD (hazard ratio = 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.01, 1.25] per standard deviation [SD]), and categorical analyses supported these findings. The associations did not significantly differ by age, sex, or by adjustment for socioeconomic status. Child and adolescent height were inversely associated with CHD (hazard ratio = 0.87; 95% CI [0.81, 0.93] per SD), and categorical analyses agreed. Insufficient studies on height precluded subgroup analyses. Heterogeneity was generally high in all analyses. We found that BMI in youth is positively associated with adult CHD regardless of sex or adjustment for socioeconomic status whereas height is inversely associated with later risk of CHD.

Associations between body mass index trajectories in childhood and cardiovascular risk factors in adulthood.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Children with a growth trajectory of overweight have higher levels of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors than children with a normal-weight trajectory. However, less is known about how trajectories of body mass index (BMI) across the rest of the BMI spectrum relate to CVD risk factors and whether adult BMI affects these associations. Our aim was to examine associations between childhood BMI trajectories and adult CVD risk factors. METHODS: We included 2466 individuals with childhood weights and heights (ages 6-14) from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register and adult CVD risk factors (ages 20-81) from the Copenhagen City Heart Study. Associations between childhood BMI trajectories identified by latent class modelling and CVD risk factors were examined using generalized linear regression analyses with and without adjustment for adult BMI. Normal-weight and overweight were defined by growth references from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. RESULTS: We identified four childhood trajectories within the normal-weight spectrum and one trajectory of overweight. Compared to the trajectory with the lowest BMI level, several higher BMI trajectories were associated with worse circumference, HDL and glucose homeostasis in adulthood. The highest trajectory was additionally associated with higher total cholesterol and triglycerides. When adjusting for adult BMI, the higher BMI trajectories had lower waist circumference, blood pressure and triglycerides. CONCLUSIONS: Trajectories of BMI within the normal-weight range and in the overweight range are associated with a worse CVD risk profile than in the lowest BMI trajectory, and these associations are modifiable by growth after childhood.

Association of high amounts of physical activity with mortality risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically review and analyse studies of high amounts of physical activity and mortality risk in the general population. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria related to follow-up (minimum 2 years), outcome (mortality from all causes, cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or coronary heart disease), exposure (eg, a category of >1000 metabolic equivalent of task (MET) min/week), study design (prospective cohort, nested case control or case-cohort) and reports of cases and person years of exposure categories. INFORMATION SOURCES: Systematic searches were conducted in Embase and Pubmed from database inception to 2 March 2019. RISK OF BIAS: The quality of the studies was assessed with the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. INCLUDED STUDIES: From 31 368 studies identified, 48 were included. Two authors independently extracted outcome estimates and assessed study quality. SYNTHESIS OF RESULTS: We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) using random effect restricted cubic spline dose-response meta-analyses. Compared with the recommended level of physical activity (750 MET min/week), mortality risk was lower at physical activity levels exceeding the recommendations, at least until 5000 MET min/week for all cause mortality (HR=0.86, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.94) and for CVD mortality (HR=0.73, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.95). STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF EVIDENCE: The strengths of this study include the detailed dose-response analyses, inclusion of 48 studies and examination of sources of heterogeneity. The limitations include the observational nature of the included studies and the inaccurate estimations of amount of physical activity. INTERPRETATION: Compared with the recommended level, mortality risk was lower at physical activity levels well above the recommended target range. Further, there was no threshold beyond which lifespan was compromised. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42017055727.

Cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular strength and risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The study aimed to quantitatively summarise the dose-response relationships between cardiorespiratory fitness and muscular strength on the one hand and risk of type 2 diabetes on the other and estimate the hypothetical benefits associated with population-wide changes in the distribution of fitness. METHODS: We performed a systematic review with meta-analysis. The PubMed and EMBASE electronic databases were searched from inception dates to 12 December 2018 for cohort studies examining the association of cardiorespiratory fitness or muscular strength with risk of incident type 2 diabetes in adults. The quality of included studies was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RESULTS: Twenty-two studies of cardiorespiratory fitness and 13 studies of muscular strength were included in the systematic review with both exposures having ten estimates available for the primary adiposity- or body size-controlled meta-analysis. In random-effects meta-analysis including 40,286 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in 1,601,490 participants, each 1 metabolic equivalent (MET) higher cardiorespiratory fitness was associated with an 8% (95% CI 6%, 10%) lower RR of type 2 diabetes. The association was linear throughout the examined spectrum of cardiorespiratory fitness. In 39,233 cases and 1,713,468 participants each 1 SD higher muscular strength was associated with a 13% (95% CI 6%, 19%) lower RR of type 2 diabetes. We estimated that 4% to 21% of new annual cases of type 2 diabetes among 45-64-year-olds could be prevented by feasible and plausible population cardiorespiratory fitness changes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Relatively small increments in cardiorespiratory fitness and muscle strength were associated with clinically meaningful reductions in type 2 diabetes risk with indication of a linear dose-response relationship for cardiorespiratory fitness. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (CRD42017064526).

Associations between Recreational and Commuter Cycling, Changes in Cycling, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: A Cohort Study of Danish Men and Women.

BACKGROUND: Cycling is a recreational activity and mode of commuting with substantial potential to improve public health in many countries around the world. The aim of this study was to examine prospective associations between recreational and commuter cycling, changes in cycling habits, and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Danish adults from the Diet, Cancer and Health cohort study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: At baseline from 1993 to 1997, 24,623 men and 27,890 women from Denmark, 50-65 y of age and free of T2D and other chronic diseases, underwent a number of assessments, including completing a lifestyle questionnaire also addressing cycling habits. Approximately 5 y later, at a second examination, participants completed a new, updated lifestyle questionnaire. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of incident T2D registered in the Danish National Diabetes Registry, according to recreational and commuter cycling and changes in cycling habits, with adjustment for a priori known T2D risk factors. During 743,245.4 person-years of follow-up (mean follow-up 14.2 y), 6,779 incident cases of T2D were documented. Multivariable adjusted HRs (95% confidence interval [CI]) were 1, 0.87 (0.82, 0.93), 0.83 (0.77, 0.89), 0.80 (0.74, 0.86) and 0.80 (0.74, 0.87) (p for trend = <0.001) for 0, 1-60, 61-150, 151-300, and >300 min/wk of total cycling (recreational and commuter cycling), respectively. In analysis of seasonal cycling, multivariable adjusted HRs (95% CI) were 1, 0.88 (0.83, 0.94), and 0.80 (0.76, 0.85) for non-cyclists, seasonal cyclists (those cycling only in summer or winter), and those cycling during both summer and winter, respectively. How changes in total cycling from baseline to the second examination affected risk was also investigated, and multivariable adjusted HRs (95% CI) were 1, 0.88 (0.78, 1.01), 0.80 (0.69, 0.91), and 0.71 (0.65, 0.77) for non-cyclists and for those who ceased, initiated, or continued cycling between baseline and the second examination, respectively. Lastly, in the analysis of commuter cycling, multivariable HRs (95% CI) were 1, 0.72 (0.60, 0.87), 0.83 (0.69, 1.00), and 0.70 (0.57, 0.85) (p for trend = <0.001) for cycling 0, 1-60, 61-150, and >150 min/wk to work, respectively. The main limitation of the current study is the use of self-reported physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Commuter and recreational cycling was consistently associated with lower risk of T2D in Danish adults. Our results also provide evidence that late-in-life initiation of or continued engagement in cycling lowers risk of T2D.