Scaling identity connects human mobility and social interactions.

Massive datasets that capture human movements and social interactions have catalyzed rapid advances in our quantitative understanding of human behavior during the past years. One important aspect affecting both areas is the critical role space plays. Indeed, growing evidence suggests both our movements and communication patterns are associated with spatial costs that follow reproducible scaling laws, each characterized by its specific critical exponents. Although human mobility and social networks develop concomitantly as two prolific yet largely separated fields, we lack any known relationships between the critical exponents explored by them, despite the fact that they often study the same datasets. Here, by exploiting three different mobile phone datasets that capture simultaneously these two aspects, we discovered a new scaling relationship, mediated by a universal flux distribution, which links the critical exponents characterizing the spatial dependencies in human mobility and social networks. Therefore, the widely studied scaling laws uncovered in these two areas are not independent but connected through a deeper underlying reality.

Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour.

Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n = 861), it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective behaviour. It is the first time the predictive power of a quantitative model of opinion dynamics is tested against a real dataset. Unlike previous research on the topic, the model was validated on data which did not serve to calibrate it. This avoids to favor more complex models over more simple ones and prevents overfitting. The model is parametrized by the influenceability of each individual, a factor representing to what extent individuals incorporate external judgments. The prediction accuracy depends on prior knowledge on the participants' past behaviour. Several situations reflecting data availability are compared. When the data is scarce, the data from previous participants is used to predict how a new participant will behave. Judgment revision includes unpredictable variations which limit the potential for prediction. A first measure of unpredictability is proposed. The measure is based on a specific control experiment. More than two thirds of the prediction errors are found to occur due to unpredictability of the human judgment revision process rather than to model imperfection.

Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data.

During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography.

Career on the move: geography, stratification, and scientific impact.

Changing institutions is an integral part of an academic life. Yet little is known about the mobility patterns of scientists at an institutional level and how these career choices affect scientific outcomes. Here, we examine over 420,000 papers, to track the affiliation information of individual scientists, allowing us to reconstruct their career trajectories over decades. We find that career movements are not only temporally and spatially localized, but also characterized by a high degree of stratification in institutional ranking. When cross-group movement occurs, we find that while going from elite to lower-rank institutions on average associates with modest decrease in scientific performance, transitioning into elite institutions does not result in subsequent performance gain. These results offer empirical evidence on institutional level career choices and movements and have potential implications for science policy.

Flow motifs reveal limitations of the static framework to represent human interactions.

Networks are commonly used to define underlying interaction structures where infections, information, or other quantities may spread. Although the standard approach has been to aggregate all links into a static structure, some studies have shown that the time order in which the links are established may alter the dynamics of spreading. In this paper, we study the impact of the time ordering in the limits of flow on various empirical temporal networks. By using a random walk dynamics, we estimate the flow on links and convert the original undirected network (temporal and static) into a directed flow network. We then introduce the concept of flow motifs and quantify the divergence in the representativity of motifs when using the temporal and static frameworks. We find that the regularity of contacts and persistence of vertices (common in email communication and face-to-face interactions) result on little differences in the limits of flow for both frameworks. On the other hand, in the case of communication within a dating site and of a sexual network, the flow between vertices changes significantly in the temporal framework such that the static approximation poorly represents the structure of contacts. We have also observed that cliques with 3 and 4 vertices containing only low-flow links are more represented than the same cliques with all high-flow links. The representativity of these low-flow cliques is higher in the temporal framework. Our results suggest that the flow between vertices connected in cliques depend on the topological context in which they are placed and in the time sequence in which the links are established. The structure of the clique alone does not completely characterize the potential of flow between the vertices.

Bursts of vertex activation and epidemics in evolving networks.

The dynamic nature of contact patterns creates diverse temporal structures. In particular, empirical studies have shown that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event time intervals, meaning that periods of high activity are followed by long periods of inactivity. To investigate the impact of these heterogeneities in the spread of infection from a theoretical perspective, we propose a stochastic model to generate temporal networks where vertices make instantaneous contacts following heterogeneous inter-event intervals, and may leave and enter the system. We study how these properties affect the prevalence of an infection and estimate R(0), the number of secondary infections of an infectious individual in a completely susceptible population, by modeling simulated infections (SI and SIR) that co-evolve with the network structure. We find that heterogeneous contact patterns cause earlier and larger epidemics in the SIR model in comparison to homogeneous scenarios for a vast range of parameter values, while smaller epidemics may happen in some combinations of parameters. In the case of SI and heterogeneous patterns, the epidemics develop faster in the earlier stages followed by a slowdown in the asymptotic limit. For increasing vertex turnover rates, heterogeneous patterns generally cause higher prevalence in comparison to homogeneous scenarios with the same average inter-event interval. We find that [Formula: see text] is generally higher for heterogeneous patterns, except for sufficiently large infection duration and transmission probability.

Unique in the Crowd: The privacy bounds of human mobility.

We study fifteen months of human mobility data for one and a half million individuals and find that human mobility traces are highly unique. In fact, in a dataset where the location of an individual is specified hourly, and with a spatial resolution equal to that given by the carrier's antennas, four spatio-temporal points are enough to uniquely identify 95% of the individuals. We coarsen the data spatially and temporally to find a formula for the uniqueness of human mobility traces given their resolution and the available outside information. This formula shows that the uniqueness of mobility traces decays approximately as the 1/10 power of their resolution. Hence, even coarse datasets provide little anonymity. These findings represent fundamental constraints to an individual's privacy and have important implications for the design of frameworks and institutions dedicated to protect the privacy of individuals.

Interplay between telecommunications and face-to-face interactions: a study using mobile phone data.

In this study we analyze one year of anonymized telecommunications data for over one million customers from a large European cellphone operator, and we investigate the relationship between people's calls and their physical location. We discover that more than 90% of users who have called each other have also shared the same space (cell tower), even if they live far apart. Moreover, we find that close to 70% of users who call each other frequently (at least once per month on average) have shared the same space at the same time--an instance that we call co-location. Co-locations appear indicative of coordination calls, which occur just before face-to-face meetings. Their number is highly predictable based on the amount of calls between two users and the distance between their home locations--suggesting a new way to quantify the interplay between telecommunications and face-to-face interactions.

Uncovering space-independent communities in spatial networks.

Many complex systems are organized in the form of a network embedded in space. Important examples include the physical Internet infrastructure, road networks, flight connections, brain functional networks, and social networks. The effect of space on network topology has recently come under the spotlight because of the emergence of pervasive technologies based on geolocalization, which constantly fill databases with people's movements and thus reveal their trajectories and spatial behavior. Extracting patterns and regularities from the resulting massive amount of human mobility data requires the development of appropriate tools for uncovering information in spatially embedded networks. In contrast with most works that tend to apply standard network metrics to any type of network, we argue in this paper for a careful treatment of the constraints imposed by space on network topology. In particular, we focus on the problem of community detection and propose a modularity function adapted to spatial networks. We show that it is possible to factor out the effect of space in order to reveal more clearly hidden structural similarities between the nodes. Methods are tested on a large mobile phone network and computer-generated benchmarks where the effect of space has been incorporated.

Dynamics of latent voters.

We study the effect of latency on binary-choice opinion formation models. Latency is introduced into the models as an additional dynamic rule: after a voter changes its opinion, it enters a waiting period of stochastic length where no further changes take place. We first focus on the voter model and show that as a result of introducing latency, the average magnetization is not conserved, and the system is driven toward zero magnetization, independently of initial conditions. The model is studied analytically in the mean-field case and by simulations in one dimension. We also address the behavior of the majority-rule model with added latency, and show that the competition between imitation and latency leads to a rich phenomenology.

Local leaders in random networks.

We consider local leaders in random uncorrelated networks, i.e., nodes whose degree is higher than or equal to the degree of all their neighbors. An analytical expression is found for the probability for a node of degree k to be a local leader. This quantity is shown to exhibit a transition from a situation where high-degree nodes are local leaders to a situation where they are not, when the tail of the degree distribution behaves like the power law ~k(-gamma(c)) with gamma(c)=3 . Theoretical results are verified by computer simulations, and the importance of finite-size effects is discussed.

Distance distribution in random graphs and application to network exploration.

We consider the problem of determining the proportion of edges that are discovered in an Erdos-Rényi graph when one constructs all shortest paths from a given source node to all other nodes. This problem is equivalent to the one of determining the proportion of edges connecting nodes that are at identical distance from the source node. The evolution of this quantity with the probability of existence of the edges exhibits intriguing oscillatory behavior. In order to perform our analysis, we introduce a different way of computing the distribution of distances between nodes. Our method outperforms previous similar analyses and leads to estimates that coincide remarkably well with numerical simulations. It allows us to characterize the phase transitions appearing when the connectivity probability varies.