A method for screening groundwater vulnerability from subsurface hydrocarbon extraction practices.

This paper describes a new screening method for assessing groundwater vulnerability to pollution from hydrocarbon exploitation in the subsurface. The method can be used for various hydrocarbon energy sources, including conventional oil and gas, shale gas and oil, coal bed methane and underground coal gasification. Intrinsic vulnerability of potential receptors is assessed at any particular location by identifying possible geological pathways for contaminant transport. This is followed by an assessment of specific vulnerability which takes into account the nature of the subsurface hydrocarbon activity and driving heads. A confidence rating is attached to each parameter in the assessment to provide an indication of the confidence in the screening. Risk categories and associated confidence ratings are designed to aid in environmental decision making, regulation and management, highlighting where additional information is required. The method is demonstrated for conventional gas and proposed shale gas operations in northern England but can be adapted for use in any geological or hydrogeological setting and for other subsurface activities.

Combined impacts of future land-use and climate stressors on water resources and quality in groundwater and surface waterbodies of the upper Thames river basin, UK.

It is widely acknowledged that waterbodies are becoming increasingly affected by a wide range of drivers of change arising from human activity. To illustrate how this can be quantified a linked modelling approach was applied in the Thames river basin in southern UK. Changes to river flows, water temperature, river and reservoir quality were predicted under three contrasting future "storylines"; one an extension of present day rates of economic development, the others representing more extreme and less sustainable visions. Modelling revealed that lower baseflow conditions will arise under all storylines. For the less extreme storyline river water quality is likely to deteriorate but reservoir quality will improve slightly. The two more extreme futures could not be supported by current management strategies to meet water demand. To satisfy these scenarios, transfer of river water from outside the Thames river basin would be necessary. Consequently, some improvement over present day water quality in the river may be seen, and for most indicators conditions would be better than in the less extreme storyline. However, because phosphorus concentrations will rise, the invoked changes in water demand management would not be of a form suitable to prevent a marked deterioration in reservoir water quality.

The nitrate time bomb: a numerical way to investigate nitrate storage and lag time in the unsaturated zone.

Nitrate pollution in groundwater, which is mainly from agricultural activities, remains an international problem. It threatens the environment, economics and human health. There is a rising trend in nitrate concentrations in many UK groundwater bodies. Research has shown it can take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into groundwater and surface water due to the 'store' of nitrate and its potentially long travel time in the unsaturated and saturated zones. However, this time lag is rarely considered in current water nitrate management and policy development. The aim of this study was to develop a catchment-scale integrated numerical method to investigate the nitrate lag time in the groundwater system, and the Eden Valley, UK, was selected as a case study area. The method involves three models, namely the nitrate time bomb-a process-based model to simulate the nitrate transport in the unsaturated zone (USZ), GISGroundwater--a GISGroundwater flow model, and N-FM--a model to simulate the nitrate transport in the saturated zone. This study answers the scientific questions of when the nitrate currently in the groundwater was loaded into the unsaturated zones and eventually reached the water table; is the rising groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area caused by historic nitrate load; what caused the uneven distribution of groundwater nitrate concentration in the study area; and whether the historic peak nitrate loading has reached the water table in the area. The groundwater nitrate in the area was mainly from the 1980s to 2000s, whilst the groundwater nitrate in most of the source protection zones leached into the system during 1940s-1970s; the large and spatially variable thickness of the USZ is one of the major reasons for unevenly distributed groundwater nitrate concentrations in the study area; the peak nitrate loading around 1983 has affected most of the study area. For areas around the Bowscar, Beacon Edge, Low Plains, Nord Vue, Dale Springs, Gamblesby, Bankwood Springs, and Cliburn, the peak nitrate loading will arrive at the water table in the next 34 years; statistical analysis shows that 8.7 % of the Penrith Sandstone and 7.3 % of the St Bees Sandstone have not been affected by peak nitrate. This research can improve the scientific understanding of nitrate processes in the groundwater system and support the effective management of groundwater nitrate pollution for the study area. With a limited number of parameters, the method and models developed in this study are readily transferable to other areas.

A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK.

This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity. Non-agricultural source terms, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected. The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood but predictions suggest that leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources and flow processes. These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands. The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data. The few studies which address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100. These changes may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaption measures need to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change.

Impacts of climate change on the fate and behaviour of pesticides in surface and groundwater--A UK perspective.

Over the last two decades significant effort has been dedicated to understanding the fate and transport of pesticides in surface water and groundwater and to use this understanding in the development of environmental policy and regulation. However, there have been few studies that have investigated the relationships between pesticides and climate change, and where this work has been undertaken it has principally been in relation to the impacts of climate change on agricultural production rather than in the context of environmental protection. This study addresses that gap by reviewing how climate change may impact the fate and transport of pesticides in surface and groundwaters as a pre-cursor to quantitative studies. In order to structure the review, we have adopted a source-pathway-receptor approach where climate sensitivities of pesticide source terms, environmental pathways and receptors are reviewed. The main climate drivers for changing pesticide fate and behaviour are thought to be changes in rainfall seasonality and intensity and increased temperatures, but the effect of climate change on pesticide fate and transport is likely to be very variable and difficult to predict. In the long-term, indirect impacts, such as land-use change driven by changes in climate, may have a more significant effect on pesticides in surface and groundwaters than the direct impacts of climate change on pesticide fate and transport. The review focuses on climate change scenarios and case studies from the UK; however, the general conclusions can be applied more widely.

Sediment filled fractures in the Permo-Triassic sandstones of the Cheshire basin: observations and implications for pollutant transport.

Fracture mapping in a tunnel system and at nearby outcrop on the Runcorn Penninsula, UK, suggests the need for a review of the potential pathways for pollutant transport in Permo-Triassic sandstone aquifers. Sediment infilling is pervasive in the largest sub-vertical multi-layer fractures in the study area, both at the surface and to a depth of about 40 m below ground level. Sediment infill is inferred to have formed in situ. The conventional models of pollutant transport in fracture networks assume that they comprise open fractures, with pollutant mobility depending on fracture connectivity (a function of density, length, orientation and intersection) and aperture. The presence of extensive sediment fills in fractures will materially change their permeability, thereby reducing pollutant flux, and be of significance in the assessment of risks arising from chemical spillages. There has been little or no substantive evidence for such fills in Permo-Triassic sandstones in the UK, apart from observations at outcrop and anecdotes of sand being pumped from boreholes. Here, we report surface and rare, but complementary, subsurface observations of extensive fills in the Cheshire basin, and argue that they will only act as preferential pathways where they crosscut low-permeability horizons such as mudstones.

Assessing herbicide concentrations in the saturated and unsaturated zone of a Chalk aquifer in southern England.

The behavior of the herbicides isoproturon (IPU) and chlortoluron (CTU) in ground water and shallow unsaturated zone sediments were evaluated at a site situated on the Chalk in southern England. Concentrations of IPU in ground water samples varied from < 0.05 to 0.23 microgram/L over a five-year period of monitoring, and were found to correlate with application of the pesticide. Concentrations of pesticides in ground water samples collected during periods of rising water table were significantly higher than pumped samples and suggest that rapidly infiltrating recharge water contains higher herbicide concentrations than the native ground water. Significant variations in herbicide concentrations were observed over a three-month period in ground water samples collected by an automated system, with concentrations of IPU ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 microgram/L, and concentrations of a recent application of CTU ranging from 0.2 to 0.8 microgram/L. Different extraction methods were used to assess pore water concentrations of herbicides in the unsaturated zone, and samples were analyzed by standard HPLC analysis and immunoassay (ELISA) methods. These data indicated highly variable concentrations of herbicide ranging from 4 to 200 g/ha for HPLC and 0.01 to 0.04 g/ha for ELISA, but indicate a general pattern of decreasing concentrations with depth. The results of this study indicate that transport of IPU and CTU through the unsaturated zone to shallow ground water occurs and that this transport increases immediately following herbicide application. Measured concentrations of herbicides are generally lower than specified by the European Union Drinking Water Directive, but are observed to spike above this limit. These results imply that, while delivery of pesticides to ground water can occur as a result of normal agricultural practices, the impact on potable supplies is likely to be negligible due to the potential for degradation during the relatively long travel time through the unsaturated zone and high degree of dilution that occurs within the aquifer. As a result of the wide variation in concentrations detected by different techniques, it is suggested that for future site investigations more than one sampling strategy be employed to characterize the occurrence of pesticide residues and elucidate the transport mechanisms.