Variable coastal hypoxia exposure and drivers across the southern California Current.

Declining oxygen is one of the most drastic changes in the ocean, and this trend is expected to worsen under future climate change scenarios. Spatial variability in dissolved oxygen dynamics and hypoxia exposures can drive differences in vulnerabilities of coastal ecosystems and resources, but documentation of variability at regional scales is rare in open-coast systems. Using a regional collaborative network of dissolved oxygen and temperature sensors maintained by scientists and fishing cooperatives from California, USA, and Baja California, Mexico, we characterize spatial and temporal variability in dissolved oxygen and seawater temperature dynamics in kelp forest ecosystems across 13° of latitude in the productive California Current upwelling system. We find distinct latitudinal patterns of hypoxia exposure and evidence for upwelling and respiration as regional drivers of oxygen dynamics, as well as more localized effects. This regional and small-scale spatial variability in dissolved oxygen dynamics supports the use of adaptive management at local scales, and highlights the value of collaborative, large-scale coastal monitoring networks for informing effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities and fisheries in a changing climate.

Geographic variation in responses of kelp forest communities of the California Current to recent climatic changes.

The changing global climate is having profound effects on coastal marine ecosystems around the world. Structure, functioning, and resilience, however, can vary geographically, depending on species composition, local oceanographic forcing, and other pressures from human activities and use. Understanding ecological responses to environmental change and predicting changes in the structure and functioning of whole ecosystems require large-scale, long-term studies, yet most studies trade spatial extent for temporal duration. We address this shortfall by integrating multiple long-term kelp forest monitoring datasets to evaluate biogeographic patterns and rates of change of key functional groups (FG) along the west coast of North America. Analysis of data from 469 sites spanning Alaska, USA, to Baja California, Mexico, and 373 species (assigned to 18 FG) reveals regional variation in responses to both long-term (2006-2016) change and a recent marine heatwave (2014-2016) associated with two atmospheric and oceanographic anomalies, the "Blob" and extreme El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Canopy-forming kelps appeared most sensitive to warming throughout their range. Other FGs varied in their responses among trophic levels, ecoregions, and in their sensitivity to heatwaves. Changes in community structure were most evident within the southern and northern California ecoregions, while communities in the center of the range were more resilient. We report a poleward shift in abundance of some key FGs. These results reveal major, ongoing region-wide changes in productive coastal marine ecosystems in response to large-scale climate variability, and the potential loss of foundation species. In particular, our results suggest that coastal communities that are dependent on kelp forests will be more impacted in the southern portion of the California Current region, highlighting the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies to sustain livelihoods and ensure food security. The results also highlight the value of multiregional integration and coordination of monitoring programs for improving our understanding of marine ecosystems, with the goal of informing policy and resource management in the future.

Catastrophic Mortality, Allee Effects, and Marine Protected Areas.

For many species, reproductive failure may occur if abundance drops below critical Allee thresholds for successful breeding, in some cases impeding recovery. At the same time, extreme environmental events can cause catastrophic collapse in otherwise healthy populations. Understanding what natural processes and management strategies may allow for persistence and recovery of natural populations is critical in the face of expected climate change scenarios of increased environmental variability. Using a spatially explicit continuous-size fishery model with stochastic dispersal parameterized for abalone-a harvested species with sedentary adults and a dispersing larval phase-we investigated whether the establishment of a system of marine protected areas (MPAs) can prevent population collapse, compared with nonspatial management when populations are affected by mass mortality from environmental shocks and subject to Allee effects. We found that MPA networks dramatically reduced the risk of collapse following catastrophic events (75%-90% mortality), while populations often continued to decline in the absence of spatial protection. Similar resilience could be achieved by closing the fishery immediately following mass mortalities but would necessitate long periods without catch and therefore economic income. For species with Allee effects, the use of protected areas can ensure persistence following mass mortality events while maintaining ecosystem services during the recovery period.

Effects of light dynamics on coral spawning synchrony.

Synchrony of spawning in many hermatypic corals, typically a few nights after the full moon, is putatively dependent on solar and lunar light cycles in conjunction with other possible cues such as tides and temperature. We analyze here the contributions of separate components of light dynamics, because the effects of twilight and lunar skylight on coral spawning synchrony have previously been conflated and the alternative hypothesis that these components have differential contributions as proximate cues has not been tested. Moonlight-dependent changes in spectra during twilight, rates of decreasing twilight intensities, and changes in lunar photoperiod were experimentally decoupled using programmed light-emitting diodes and compared for their separate effects on spawning synchrony in Acropora humilis. Effects on synchrony under the control of synthetic lunar cues were greatest in response to changes in lunar photoperiod; changes in light intensities and spectra had lesser influence. No significant differences among treatment responses were found at the circa-diel time scale. We conclude that spawning synchrony on a particular lunar night and specific time of night is a threshold response to differential periods of darkness after twilight that is primarily influenced by lunar photoperiod and secondarily by discrete optical components of early nocturnal illumination.

Twilight spectral dynamics and the coral reef invertebrate spawning response.

There are dramatic and physiologically relevant changes in both skylight color and intensity during evening twilight as the pathlength of direct sunlight through the atmosphere increases, ozone increasingly absorbs long wavelengths and skylight becomes increasingly blue shifted. The moon is above the horizon at sunset during the waxing phase of the lunar cycle, on the horizon at sunset on the night of the full moon and below the horizon during the waning phase. Moonlight is red shifted compared with daylight, so the presence, phase and position of the moon in the sky could modulate the blue shifts during twilight. Therefore, the influence of the moon on twilight color is likely to differ somewhat each night of the lunar cycle, and to vary especially rapidly around the full moon, as the moon transitions from above to below the horizon during twilight. Many important light-mediated biological processes occur during twilight, and this lunar effect may play a role. One particularly intriguing biological event tightly correlated with these twilight processes is the occurrence of mass spawning events on coral reefs. Therefore, we measured downwelling underwater hyperspectral irradiance on a coral reef during twilight for several nights before and after the full moon. We demonstrate that shifts in twilight color and intensity on nights both within and between evenings, immediately before and after the full moon, are correlated with the observed times of synchronized mass spawning, and that these optical phenomena are a biologically plausible cue for the synchronization of these mass spawning events.