Complex patch geometry promotes species coexistence through a reverse competition-colonization trade-off.

Explaining the maintenance of diverse species assemblages is a central goal of ecology and conservation. Recent coexistence mechanisms highlight the role of dispersal as a source of the differences that allow similar species to coexist. Here, we propose a new mechanism for species coexistence that is based on dispersal differences, and on the geometry of the habitat patch. In a finite habitat patch with complex boundaries, species with different dispersal abilities will arrange themselves in stable, concentric patterns of dominance. Species with superior competitive and dispersal abilities will dominate the interior of the patch, with inferior species at the periphery. We demonstrate and explain the mechanism on a simple one-dimensional domain, and then on two-dimensional habitat patches with realistic geometries. Finally, we use metrics from landscape ecology to demonstrate that habitat patches with more complex geometries can more easily support coexistence. The factors that underpin this new coexistence mechanism-different dispersal abilities and habitat patches with complex geometries-are common to many marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and it is therefore possible that the mechanism is a common factor supporting diverse species assemblages.

Adaptive experimental design produces superior and more efficient estimates of predator functional response.

Ecological dynamics are strongly influenced by the relationship between prey density and predator feeding behavior-that is, the predatory functional response. A useful understanding of this relationship requires us to distinguish between competing models of the functional response, and to robustly estimate the model parameters. Recent advances in this topic have revealed bias in model comparison, as well as in model parameter estimation in functional response studies, mainly attributed to the quality of data. Here, we propose that an adaptive experimental design framework can mitigate these challenges. We then present the first practical demonstration of the improvements it offers over standard experimental design. Our results reveal that adaptive design can efficiently identify the preferred functional response model among the competing models, and can produce much more precise posterior distributions for the estimated functional response parameters. By increasing the efficiency of experimentation, adaptive experimental design will lead to reduced logistical burden.

Predictors of cardiovascular implantable electronic device dependence at long-term follow-up after alcohol septal ablation in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy patients.

BACKGROUND: The most common complication of alcohol septal ablation (ASA) is transient periprocedural high-grade AV block (HGAVB). To date, no long-term follow-up of cardiovascular implantable electronic device (CIED) utilization after ASA has been reported. We hypothesized that CIED dependence on long-term follow-up can be predicted by ECG or procedural characteristics. METHODS: We analyzed all patients with HCM who underwent ASA from December 1998 to December 2019 and received their first CIED within 30 days after ASA for HGAVB. All follow-up interrogations were reviewed. CIED dependence was defined as ventricular pacing of ≥ 5%. RESULTS: A total of 138 patients with HCM underwent ASA. Of these, 35 had a prior device and were excluded. Of the remaining 103 patients, 25 patients received a CIED for HGAVB within 30 days after ASA. Average follow-up duration was 10.1 years. On long-term follow-up, 16 patients (64%) were found to be CIED-dependent. Baseline characteristics, including pre- and post-ASA ECG, were not significantly different between dependent and non-dependent patients. The only predictor for CIED dependence was > 1 ml of alcohol injected (OR 6.0, p = 0.031). CONCLUSIONS: CIED implantation after ASA is common. Almost two thirds of patients who received a CIED for post-procedural HGAVB were CIED-dependent on long-term follow-up. CIED dependence can be predicted by the amount of injected alcohol > 1 ml.

German brass for Benin Bronzes: Geochemical analysis insights into the early Atlantic trade.

Utilizing geochemical analysis, this study identifies the sources of European brass used in the casting of the renowned Benin Bronzes, produced by the Edo people of Nigeria. It is commonly believed that distinctive brass rings known as "manillas", used as currency in the European trade in West Africa, also served as a metal source for the making of the Bronzes. However, prior to the current study, no research had conclusively connected the Benin artworks and the European manillas. For this research, manillas from shipwrecks in African, American and European waters dating between the 16th and 19th Century were analysed using ICP-MS analysis. Comparing trace elements and lead isotope ratios of manillas and Benin Bronzes identifies Germany as the principal source of the manillas used in the West African trade between the 15th and 18th centuries before British industries took over the brass trade in the late 18th century.

Choosing optimal trigger points for ex situ, in toto conservation of single population threatened species.

Many endangered species exist in only a single population, and almost all species that go extinct will do so from their last remaining population. Understanding how to best conserve these single population threatened species (SPTS) is therefore a distinct and important task for threatened species conservation science. As a last resort, managers of SPTS may consider taking the entire population into captivity-ex situ, in toto conservation. In the past, this choice has been taken to the great benefit of the SPTS, but it has also lead to catastrophe. Here, we develop a decision-support tool for planning when to trigger this difficult action. Our method considers the uncertain and ongoing decline of the SPTS, the possibility that drastic ex situ action will fail, and the opportunities offered by delaying the decision. Specifically, these benefits are additional time for ongoing in situ actions to succeed, and opportunities for the managers to learn about the system. To illustrate its utility, we apply the decision tool to four retrospective case-studies of declining SPTS. As well as offering support to this particular decision, our tool illustrates why trigger points for difficult conservation decisions should be formulated in advance, but must also be adaptive. A trigger-point for the ex situ, in toto conservation of a SPTS, for example, will not take the form of a simple threshold abundance.

Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data-poor island ecosystem.

Data hungry, complex ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of threatened species management, including perverse outcomes. Unfortunately, this approach is impractical in many systems, which have insufficient data to parameterize ecosystem interactions or reliably calibrate or validate such models. Here we demonstrate a different approach, using a minimum realistic model to guide decisions in data- and resource-scarce systems. We illustrate our approach with a case-study in an invaded ecosystem from Christmas Island, Australia, where there are concerns that cat eradication to protect native species, including the red-tailed tropicbird, could release meso-predation by invasive rats. We use biophysical constraints (metabolic demand) and observable parameters (e.g. prey preferences) to assess the combined cat and rat abundances which would threaten the tropicbird population. We find that the population of tropicbirds cannot be sustained if predated by 1607 rats (95% credible interval (CI) [103, 5910]) in the absence of cats, or 21 cats (95% CI [2, 82]) in the absence of rats. For every cat removed from the island, the bird's net population growth rate improves, provided that the rats do not increase by more than 77 individuals (95% CI [30, 174]). Thus, in this context, one cat is equivalent to 30-174 rats. Our methods are especially useful for on-the-ground predator control in the absence of knowledge of predator-predator interactions, to assess whether 1) the current abundance of predators threatens the prey population of interest, 2) managing one predator species alone is sufficient to protect the prey species given potential release of another predator, and 3) control of multiple predator species is needed to meet the conservation goal. Our approach demonstrates how to use limited information for maximum value in data-poor systems, by shifting the focus from predicting future trajectories, to identifying conditions which threaten the conservation goal. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The evolving role of cardiac imaging in patients with myocardial infarction and non-obstructive coronary arteries.

Myocardial infarction (MI) with non-obstructive coronary arteries (MINOCA) represents a heterogeneous clinical conundrum accounting for about 6%-8% of all acute MI who are referred for coronary angiography. Current guidelines and consensus documents recommend that these patients are appropriately diagnosed, uncovering the causes of MINOCA, so that specific therapies can be prescribed. Indeed, there are a variety of causes that can result in this clinical condition, and for this reason diagnostic cardiac imaging has an emerging critical role in the assessment of patients with suspected or confirmed MINOCA. In last years, different cardiac imaging techniques have been evaluated in this context, and the comprehension of their strengths and limitations is of the utmost importance for their effective use in clinical practice. Moreover, recent evidence is clearly suggesting that a multimodality cardiac imaging approach, combining different techniques, seems to be crucial for a proper management of MINOCA. However, great variability still exists in clinical practice in the management of patients with suspected MINOCA, also depending on the availability of diagnostic tools and local expertise. Herein, we review the current knowledge supporting the use of different cardiac imaging techniques in patients with MINOCA, underscoring the importance of a comprehensive multimodality cardiac imaging approach and proposing a practical diagnostic algorithm to properly identify and treat the specific causes of MINOCA, in order to improve prognosis and the quality of life in these patients.

Reproductive hyperallometry and managing the world's fisheries.

Marine fisheries are an essential component of global food security, but many are close to their limits and some are overfished. The models that guide the management of these fisheries almost always assume reproduction is proportional to mass (isometry), when fecundity generally increases disproportionately to mass (hyperallometry). Judged against several management reference points, we show that assuming isometry overestimates the replenishment potential of exploited fish stocks by 22% (range: 2% to 78%) for 32 of the world's largest fisheries, risking systematic overharvesting. We calculate that target catches based on assumptions of isometry are more than double those based on assumptions of hyperallometry for most species, such that common reference points are set twice as high as they should be to maintain the target level of replenishment. We also show that hyperallometric reproduction provides opportunities for increasing the efficacy of tools that are underused in standard fisheries management, such as protected areas or harvest slot limits. Adopting management strategies that conserve large, hyperfecund fish may, in some instances, result in higher yields relative to traditional approaches. We recommend that future assessment of reference points and quotas include reproductive hyperallometry unless there is clear evidence that it does not occur in that species.

The spatial footprint and patchiness of large-scale disturbances on coral reefs.

Ecosystems have always been shaped by disturbances, but many of these events are becoming larger, more severe and more frequent. The recovery capacity of depleted populations depends on the frequency of disturbances, the spatial distribution of mortality and the scale of dispersal. Here, we show that four mass coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef (in 1998, 2002, 2016 and 2017) each had markedly larger disturbance footprints and were less patchy than a severe category 5 tropical cyclone (Cyclone Yasi, 2011). Severely bleached reefs in 2016 and 2017 were isolated from the nearest lightly affected reefs by up to 146 and 200 km, respectively. In contrast, reefs damaged by Cyclone Yasi were on average 20 km away from relatively undisturbed reefs, well within the estimated range of larval dispersal for most corals. Based on these results, we present a model of coral reef disturbance and recovery to examine (1) how the spatial clustering of disturbances modifies large-scale recovery rates; and (2) how recovery rates are shaped by species' dispersal abilities. Our findings illustrate that the spatial footprint of the recent mass bleaching events poses an unprecedented threat to the resilience of coral species in human history, a threat that is even larger than the amount of mortality suggests.

Cell type-specific roles of PAR1 in Coxsackievirus B3 infection.

Protease-activated receptor 1 (PAR1) is widely expressed in humans and mice, and is activated by a variety of proteases, including thrombin. Recently, we showed that PAR1 contributes to the innate immune response to viral infection. Mice with a global deficiency of PAR1 expressed lower levels of CXCL10 and had increased Coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3)-induced myocarditis compared with control mice. In this study, we determined the effect of cell type-specific deletion of PAR1 in cardiac myocytes (CMs) and cardiac fibroblasts (CFs) on CVB3-induced myocarditis. Mice lacking PAR1 in either CMs or CFs exhibited increased CVB3 genomes, inflammatory infiltrates, macrophages and inflammatory mediators in the heart and increased CVB3-induced myocarditis compared with wild-type controls. Interestingly, PAR1 enhanced poly I:C induction of CXCL10 in rat CFs but not in rat neonatal CMs. Importantly, activation of PAR1 reduced CVB3 replication in murine embryonic fibroblasts and murine embryonic cardiac myocytes. In addition, we showed that PAR1 reduced autophagy in murine embryonic fibroblasts and rat H9c2 cells, which may explain how PAR1 reduces CVB3 replication. These data suggest that PAR1 on CFs protects against CVB3-induced myocarditis by enhancing the anti-viral response whereas PAR1 on both CMs and fibroblasts inhibits viral replication.

A polyphagous, tropical insect herbivore shows strong seasonality in age-structure and longevity independent of temperature and host availability.

Bactrocera tryoni is a polyphagous fruit fly that is predicated to have continuous breeding in tropical and subtropical Australia as temperature and hosts are not limiting. Nevertheless, in both rainforest and tropical agricultural systems, the fly shows a distinct seasonal phenology pattern with an autumn decline and a spring emergence. Temperature based population models have limited predictive capacity for this species and so the driver(s) for the observed phenology patterns are unknown. Using a demographic approach, we studied the age-structure of B. tryoni populations in subtropical Australia in an agricultural system, with a focus on times of the year when marked changes in population abundance occur. We found that the age-structure of the population varied with season: summer and autumn populations were composed of mixed-age flies, while late-winter and early-spring populations were composed of old to very old individuals. When held at a constant temperature, the longevity of adult reference cohorts (obtained from field infested fruits) also showed strong seasonality; the adults of spring and early autumn populations were short-lived, while late autumn and late winter adults were long-lived. While still expressing in modified landscapes, the data strongly suggests that B. tryoni has an endogenous mechanism which would have allowed it to cope with changes in the breeding resources available in its endemic monsoonal rainforest habitat, when fruits would have been abundant in the late spring and summer (wet season), and rare or absent during late autumn and winter (dry season).

Modeling herbivore functional responses causing boom-bust dynamics following predator removal.

Native biodiversity is threatened by invasive species in many terrestrial and marine systems, and conservation managers have demonstrated successes by responding with eradication or control programs. Although invasive species are often the direct cause of threat to native species, ecosystems can react in unexpected ways to their removal or reduction. Here, we use theoretical models to predict boom-bust dynamics, where the removal of predatory or competitive pressure from a native herbivore results in oscillatory population dynamics (boom-bust), which can endanger the native species' population in the short term. We simulate control activities, applied to multiple theoretical three-species Lotka-Volterra ecosystem models consisting of vegetation, a native herbivore, and an invasive predator. Based on these communities, we then develop a predictive tool that-based on relative parameter values-predicts whether control efforts directed at the invasive predator will lead to herbivore release followed by a crash. Further, by investigating the different functional responses, we show that model structure, as well as model parameters, are important determinants of conservation outcomes. Finally, control strategies that can mitigate these negative consequences are identified. Managers working in similar data-poor ecosystems can use the predictive tool to assess the probability that their system will exhibit boom-bust dynamics, without knowing exact community parameter values.

The population sizes and global extinction risk of reef-building coral species at biogeographic scales.

Knowledge of a species' abundance is critically important for assessing its risk of extinction, but for the vast majority of wild animal and plant species such data are scarce at biogeographic scales. Here, we estimate the total number of reef-building corals and the population sizes of more than 300 individual species on reefs spanning the Pacific Ocean biodiversity gradient, from Indonesia to French Polynesia. Our analysis suggests that approximately half a trillion corals (0.3 × 1012-0.8 × 1012) inhabit these coral reefs, similar to the number of trees in the Amazon. Two-thirds of the examined species have population sizes exceeding 100 million colonies, and one-fifth of the species even have population sizes greater than 1 billion colonies. Our findings suggest that, while local depletions pose imminent threats that can have ecologically devastating impacts to coral reefs, the global extinction risk of most coral species is lower than previously estimated.

Using ensemble modeling to predict the impacts of assisted migration on recipient ecosystems.

Assisted migration is a controversial conservation measure that aims to protect threatened species by moving part of their population outside its natural range. Although this could save species from extinction, it also introduces a range of risks. The magnitude of the threat to recipient ecosystems has not been investigated quantitatively, despite being the most common criticism leveled at the action. We used an ensemble modeling framework to estimate the risks of assisted migration to existing species within ecosystems. With this approach, we calculated the consequences of an assisted migration project across a very large combination of translocated species and recipient ecosystems. We predicted the probability of a successful assisted migration and the number of local extinctions would result from establishment of the translocated species. Using an ensemble of 1.5×106 simulated 15-species recipient ecosystems, we estimated that translocated species will successfully establish in 83% of cases if introduced to stable, high-quality habitats. However, assisted migration projects were estimated to cause an average of 0.6 extinctions and 5% of successful translocations triggered 4 or more local extinctions. Quantifying the impacts to species within recipient ecosystems is critical to help managers weigh the benefits and negative consequences of assisted migration.

Modelación en Conjunto para Predecir los Impactos de la Migración Asistida sobre los Ecosistemas Receptores Resumen La migración asistida es una medida controversial de conservación que busca proteger a las especies amenazadas mediante la mudanza de parte de su población fuera de su extensión natural. Este método podría salvar a las especies de la extinción, pero también implica una gama de riesgos. La magnitud de la amenaza para el ecosistema receptor no ha sido investigada cuantitativamente a pesar de ser la crítica más común para esta acción. Usamos un marco de trabajo de modelación en conjunto para estimar los riesgos de la migración asistida para las especies existentes dentro de los ecosistemas. Mediante este enfoque calculamos las consecuencias de un proyecto de migración asistida en una combinación de especies reubicadas y ecosistemas receptores. Pronosticamos la probabilidad de una migración asistida exitosa y el número local de extinciones que resultarían de la introducción de especies reubicadas. Con un conjunto simulado de 1.5×106 ecosistemas receptores con 15 especies, estimamos que las especies reubicadas se establecerán exitosamente en 83% de los casos si son introducidas a hábitats estables y de alta calidad. Sin embargo, se estimó que los proyectos de migración asistida causarían un promedio de 0.6 extinciones y el 5% de las reubicaciones exitosas generaron cuatro o más extinciones locales. La cuantificación de los impactos para las especies dentro de los ecosistemas receptores es crítica para ayudar a los manejadores a sopesar los beneficios y las consecuencias negativas de la migración asistida.

The use of MitraClip to prevent posttranscatheter aortic valve replacement left ventricular "suicide".

Patients with concomitant severe aortic stenosis (AS) and left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) obstruction undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) are at risk for hemodynamic collapse due to a sudden decrease in afterload causing worsening LVOT obstruction. We present a case of an 88-year-old female with symptomatic, severe AS, and LVOT obstruction with systolic anterior motion (SAM) of the mitral leaflet in whom alcohol septal ablation was contraindicated secondary to a chronic total occlusion of the right coronary artery that filled retrograde via septal collaterals. MitraClip at the time of TAVR was successfully performed to treat SAM with subsequent stabilization of LVOT gradients despite treatment of the patient's AS. This novel approach may represent a feasible option to prevent hemodynamic complications after TAVR in patients with significant LVOT obstruction secondary to SAM and AS.

Long-term shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the Great Barrier Reef.

The age or size structure of a population has a marked influence on its demography and reproductive capacity. While declines in coral cover are well documented, concomitant shifts in the size-frequency distribution of coral colonies are rarely measured at large spatial scales. Here, we document major shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the 2300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef relative to historical baselines (1995/1996). Coral colony abundances on reef crests and slopes have declined sharply across all colony size classes and in all coral taxa compared to historical baselines. Declines were particularly pronounced in the northern and central regions of the Great Barrier Reef, following mass coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017. The relative abundances of large colonies remained relatively stable, but this apparent stability masks steep declines in absolute abundance. The potential for recovery of older fecund corals is uncertain given the increasing frequency and intensity of disturbance events. The systematic decline in smaller colonies across regions, habitats and taxa, suggests that a decline in recruitment has further eroded the recovery potential and resilience of coral populations.

A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications.

Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm - managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for interactions, feedback loops and dependencies between ecosystem components is therefore fundamental to understanding and managing ecosystems. We provide an overview of the main types of ecosystem models and their uses, and discuss challenges related to modelling complex ecological systems. Existing modelling approaches typically attempt to do one or more of the following: describe and disentangle ecosystem components and interactions; make predictions about future ecosystem states; and inform decision making by comparing alternative strategies and identifying important uncertainties. Modelling ecosystems is challenging, particularly when balancing the desire to represent many components of an ecosystem with the limitations of available data and the modelling objective. Explicitly considering different forms of uncertainty is therefore a primary concern. We provide some recommended strategies (such as ensemble ecosystem models and multi-model approaches) to aid the explicit consideration of uncertainty while also meeting the challenges of modelling ecosystems.