The decline of kilkas, sturgeons and seals in the Caspian Sea: The potential of qualitative loop analysis for the cumulative assessment of multiple drivers of stress.

Multiple stressors often act concomitantly on ecosystems but detection of species responses follows the "single species-single driver" strategy, and cumulative impacts are seldom considered. During 1990-2010, multiple perturbations in the Caspian Sea, led to the decline of kilka, sturgeon and Caspian seal populations. Specific causes for their collapse were identified but a cumulative assessment has never been carried out. Using loop analysis, a qualitative modelling technique suitable in poor-data contexts, we show how multiple drivers can be combined to assess their cumulative impact. We confirm that the decline of kilka, sturgeon and Caspian seal populations is compatible with a net effect of the concomitant perturbations. Kilkas collapse was certainly due to the outburst of M. leidyi and overfishing. In addition, the excess nutrient might have conspired to reduce these populations. The interplay between concurrent drivers produces trade-offs between opposite effects and ecosystem management must face this challenge.

Temporal and spatial differences in nitrogen and phosphorus biogeochemistry and ecosystem functioning of a hypertrophic lagoon (Curonian Lagoon, SE Baltic Sea) revealed via Ecological Network Analysis.

In coastal lagoons, eutrophication and hydrology are interacting factors that produce distortions in biogeochemical nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. Such distortions affect nutrient relative availability and produce cascade consequences on primary producer's community and ecosystem functioning. In this study, the seasonal functioning of a coastal lagoon was investigated with a multielement approach, via the construction and analysis of network models. Spring and summer networks, both for N and P flows, have been simultaneously compiled for the northern transitional and southern confined area of the hypertrophic Curonian Lagoon (SE Baltic Sea). Ecological Network Analysis was applied to address the combined effect of hydrology and seasonality on biogeochemical processes. Results suggest that the ecosystem is more active and presents higher N and P fluxes in summer compared to spring, regardless of the area. Furthermore, larger internal recycling characterizes the confined compared to the transitional area, regardless of the season. The two areas differed in the fate of available nutrients. The transitional area received large riverine inputs that were mainly transferred to the sea without the conversion into primary producers' biomass. The confined area had fewer inputs but proportionally larger conversion into phytoplankton biomass. In summer, particularly in the confined area, primary production was inefficiently consumed by herbivores. Most phytoplanktonic N and P, in the confined area more than in the transitional area, were conveyed to the detritus pathway where P, more than N, was recycled, contributing to the unbalance in N:P stoichiometry and favouring N-fixing cyanobacteria over other phytoplankton groups. The findings of this study provide a comprehensive understanding of N and P circulation patterns in lagoon areas characterized by different hydrology. They also support the importance of a stoichiometric approach to trace relative differences in N and P recycling and abundance, that promote blooms, drive algal communities and whole ecosystem functioning.

Functional links and robustness in food webs.

The robustness of ecosystems to species losses is a central question in ecology, given the current pace of extinctions and the many species threatened by human impacts, including habitat destruction and climate change. Robustness from the perspective of secondary extinctions has been addressed in the context of food webs to consider the complex network of species interactions that underlie responses to perturbations. In-silico removal experiments have examined the structural properties of food webs that enhance or hamper the robustness of ecosystems to species losses, with a focus on the role of hubs, the most connected species. Here we take a different approach and focus on the role of the connections themselves. We show that trophic links can be divided into functional and redundant based on their contribution to robustness. The analysis of empirical webs shows that hubs are not necessarily the most important species as they may hold many redundant links. Furthermore, the fraction of functional connections is high and constant across systems regardless of size and interconnectedness. The main consequence of this scaling pattern is that ecosystem robustness can be considerably reduced by species extinctions even when these do not result in any secondary extinctions. This introduces the possibility of tipping points in the collapse of ecosystems.

Using food web dominator trees to catch secondary extinctions in action.

In ecosystems, a single extinction event can give rise to multiple 'secondary' extinctions. Conservation effort would benefit from tools that help forecast the consequences of species removal. One such tool is the dominator tree, a graph-theoretic algorithm that when applied to food webs unfolds their complex architecture, yielding a simpler topology made of linear pathways that are essential for energy delivery. Each species along these chains is responsible for passing energy to the taxa that follow it and, as such, it is indispensable for their survival. To assess the predictive potential of the dominator tree, we compare its predictions with the effects that followed the collapse of the capelin (Mallotus villosus) in the Barents Sea ecosystem. To this end, we first compiled a food web for this ecosystem, then we built the corresponding dominator tree and, finally, we observed whether model predictions matched the empirical observations. This analysis shows the potential and the drawbacks of the dominator trees as a tool for understanding the causes and consequences of extinctions in food webs.

Who dominates whom in the ecosystem? Energy flow bottlenecks and cascading extinctions.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of secondary extinction in food webs through the use of dominator trees, network topological structures that reduce food webs to linear pathways that are essential for energy delivery. Each species along these chains is responsible for passing energy to the taxa that follow it, and, as such, it is indispensable for their survival; because of this it is said to dominate them. The higher the number of species a node dominates, the greater the impact resulting from its removal. By computing dominator trees for 13 well-studied food webs we obtained for each of them the number of nodes dominated by a single species and the number of nodes that dominate each species. We illustrate the procedure for the Grassland Ecosystem showing the potential of this method for identifying species that play a major role in energy delivery and are likely to cause the greatest damage if removed. Finally, by means of two indices that measure error and attack sensitivity, we confirm a previous hypothesis that food webs are very robust to random loss of species but very fragile to the selective loss of the hubs.

Sustainability at the local scale: defining highly aggregated indices for assessing environmental performance. The province of Reggio Emilia (Italy) as a case study.

In order to achieve improved sustainability, local authorities need to use tools that adequately describe and synthesize environmental information. This article illustrates a methodological approach that organizes a wide suite of environmental indicators into few aggregated indices, making use of correlation, principal component analysis, and fuzzy sets. Furthermore, a weighting system, which includes stakeholders' priorities and ambitions, is applied. As a case study, the described methodology is applied to the Reggio Emilia Province in Italy, by considering environmental information from 45 municipalities. Principal component analysis is used to condense an initial set of 19 indicators into 6 fundamental dimensions that highlight patterns of environmental conditions at the provincial scale. These dimensions are further aggregated in two indices of environmental performance through fuzzy sets. The simple form of these indices makes them particularly suitable for public communication, as they condensate a wide set of heterogeneous indicators. The main outcomes of the analysis and the potential applications of the method are discussed.