Learning from success: the main drivers of the maternal and newborn health transition in seven positive-outlier countries and implications for future policies and programmes.

Currently, about 8% of deaths worldwide are maternal or neonatal deaths, or stillbirths. Maternal and neonatal mortality have been a focus of the Millenium Development Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals, and mortality levels have improved since the 1990s. We aim to answer two questions: What were the key drivers of maternal and neonatal mortality reductions seen in seven positive-outlier countries from 2000 to the present? How generalisable are the findings?We identified positive-outlier countries with respect to maternal and neonatal mortality reduction since 2000. We selected seven, and synthesised experience to assess the contribution of the health sector to the mortality reduction, including the roles of access, uptake and quality of services, and of health system strengthening. We explored the wider context by examining the contribution of fertility declines, and the roles of socioeconomic and human development, particularly as they affected service use, the health system and fertility. We analysed government levers, namely policies and programmes implemented, investments in data and evidence, and political commitment and financing, and we examined international inputs. We contextualised these within a mortality transition framework.We found that strategies evolved over time as the contacts women and neonates had with health services increased. The seven countries tended to align with global recommendations but could be distinguished in that they moved progressively towards implementing their goals and in scaling-up services, rather than merely adopting policies. Strategies differed by phase in the transition framework-one size did not fit all.

Learning from Ethiopia's success in reducing maternal and neonatal mortality through a health systems lens.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to enhance insights into the key characteristics of maternal and neonatal mortality declines in Ethiopia, conducted as part of a seven-country study on Maternal and Newborn Health (MNH) Exemplars. METHODS: We synthesised key indicators for 2000, 2010 and 2020 and contextualised those with typical country values in a global five-phase model for a maternal, stillbirth and neonatal mortality transition. We reviewed health system changes relevant to MNH over the period 2000-2020, focusing on governance, financing, workforce and infrastructure, and assessed trends in mortality, service coverage and systems by region. We analysed data from five national surveys, health facility assessments, global estimates and government databases and reports on health policies, infrastructure and workforce. RESULTS: Ethiopia progressed from the highest mortality phase to the third phase, accompanied by typical changes in terms of fertility decline and health system strengthening, especially health infrastructure and workforce. For health coverage and financing indicators, Ethiopia progressed but remained lower than typical in the transition model. Maternal and neonatal mortality declines and intervention coverage increases were greater after 2010 than during 2000-2010. Similar patterns were observed in most regions of Ethiopia, though regional gaps persisted for many indicators. Ethiopia's progress is characterised by a well-coordinated and government-led system prioritising first maternal and later neonatal health, resulting major increases in access to services by improving infrastructure and workforce from 2008, combined with widespread community actions to generate service demand. CONCLUSION: Ethiopia has achieved one of the fastest declines in mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, with major intervention coverage increases, especially from 2010. Starting from a weak health infrastructure and low coverage, Ethiopia's comprehensive approach provides valuable lessons for other low-income countries. Major increases towards universal coverage of interventions, including emergency care, are critical to further reduce mortality and advance the mortality transition.

Erosion of the Capital City Advantage in Child Survival and Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Intervention Coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The place of residence is a major determinant of RMNCH outcomes, with rural areas often lagging in sub-Saharan Africa. This long-held pattern may be changing given differential progress across areas and increasing urbanization. We assessed inequalities in child mortality and RMNCH coverage across capital cities and other urban and rural areas. We analyzed mortality data from 163 DHS and MICS in 39 countries with the most recent survey conducted between 1990 and 2020 and RMNCH coverage data from 39 countries. We assessed inequality trends in neonatal and under-five mortality and in RMNCH coverage using multilevel linear regression models. Under-five mortality rates and RMNCH service coverage inequalities by place of residence have reduced substantially in sub-Saharan Africa, with rural areas experiencing faster progress than other areas. The absolute gap in child mortality between rural areas and capital cities and that between rural and other urban areas reduced respectively from 41 and 26 deaths per 1000 live births in 2000 to 23 and 15 by 2015. Capital cities are losing their primacy in child survival and RMNCH coverage over other urban areas and rural areas, especially in Eastern Africa where under-five mortality gap between capital cities and rural areas closed almost completely by 2015. While child mortality and RMNCH coverage inequalities are closing rapidly by place of residence, slower trends in capital cities and urban areas suggest gradual erosion of capital city and urban health advantage. Monitoring child mortality and RMNCH coverage trends in urban areas, especially among the urban poor, and addressing factors of within urban inequalities are urgently needed.

Deprivation and Its Association with Child Health and Nutrition in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area of Uganda.

African cities are experiencing increasing living standard disparities with limited evidence of intra-urban health disparities. Using data from the 2006-2016 Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys, we employed the UN-Habitat definition to examine slum-like household conditions in the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA). Subsequently, we developed a slum-like severity index and assessed its association with under-5 common morbidities and healthcare access. We also assessed the characteristics of people in slum-like household conditions. We identified five slum-like conditions: substandard housing conditions, limited water access, overcrowding, unclean cooking fuel, and limited toilet access. By 2016, 67% of GKMA households were classified as slum-like conditions, including 31% in severe conditions. Limited toilet access, overcrowding, and limited water access were the main forms of deprivation.Living in slum-like household conditions correlated with lower education levels, youth status, unprofessional jobs, and marriage. Compared to neighboring Kampala city urban outskirts, Kampala city households had lower slum-like prevalence. Children in GKMA living in slum-like household conditions were more likely to experience diarrhea (moderate: OR = 1.21[95% CI: 1.05-1.39], severe: OR = 1.47 [95% CI: 1.27-1.7]); fever (moderate: OR = 2.67 [95% CI: 1.23-5.8], severe: OR = 3.09 [95% CI: 1.63-5.85]); anemia (moderate: OR = 1.18 [95% CI: 0.88-1.58], severe: OR = 1.44 [95% CI: 1.11-1.86]); and stunting (moderate: OR = 1.23 [95% CI: 1.23-1.25], severe: OR = 1.40 [95% CI: 1.41-1.47]) compared to those living in less slum-like conditions. However, seeking treatment for fever was less likely in slum-like household conditions, and the association of slum-like household conditions with diarrhea was insignificant. These findings underscore the precarious urban living conditions and the need for targeted health interventions addressing the social determinants of health in urban settings.

Identifying and Characterizing the Poorest Urban Population Using National Household Surveys in 38 Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Identifying and classifying poor and rich groups in cities depends on several factors. Using data from available nationally representative surveys from 38 sub-Saharan African countries, we aimed to identify, through different poverty classifications, the best classification in urban and large city contexts. Additionally, we characterized the poor and rich groups in terms of living standards and schooling. We relied on absolute and relative measures in the identification process. For absolute ones, we selected people living below the poverty line, socioeconomic deprivation status and the UN-Habitat slum definition. We used different cut-off points for relative measures based on wealth distribution: 30%, 40%, 50%, and 60%. We analyzed all these measures according to the absence of electricity, improved drinking water and sanitation facilities, the proportion of children out-of-school, and any household member aged 10 or more with less than 6 years of education. We used the sample size, the gap between the poorest and richest groups, and the observed agreement between absolute and relative measures to identify the best measure. The best classification was based on 40% of the wealth since it has good discriminatory power between groups and median observed agreement higher than 60% in all selected cities. Using this measure, the median prevalence of absence of improved sanitation facilities was 82% among the poorer, and this indicator presented the highest inequalities. Educational indicators presented the lower prevalence and inequalities. Luanda, Ouagadougou, and N'Djaména were considered the worst performers, while Lagos, Douala, and Nairobi were the best performers. The higher the human development index, the lower the observed inequalities. When analyzing cities using nationally representative surveys, we recommend using the relative measure of 40% of wealth to characterize the poorest group. This classification presented large gaps in the selected outcomes and good agreement with absolute measures.

High Child Mortality and Interventions Coverage in the City of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Are the Poorest Paying an Urban Penalty?

The 'urban penalty' in health refers to the loss of a presumed survival advantage due to adverse consequences of urban life. This study investigated the levels and trends in neonatal, post-neonatal and under-5 mortality rate and key determinants of child survival using data from Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHS) (2004/05, 2010 and 2015/16), AIDS Indicator Survey (AIS), Malaria Indicator survey (MIS) and health facility data in Tanzania mainland. We compared Dar es Salaam results with other urban and rural areas in Tanzania mainland, and between the poorest and richest wealth tertiles within Dar es Salaam. Under-5 mortality declined by 41% between TDHS 2004/05 and 2015/2016 from 132 to 78 deaths per 1000 live births, with a greater decline in rural areas compared to Dar es Salaam and other urban areas. Neonatal mortality rate was consistently higher in Dar es Salaam during the same period, with the widest gap (> 50%) between Dar es Salaam and rural areas in TDHS 2015/2016. Coverage of maternal, new-born and child health interventions as well as living conditions were generally better in Dar es Salaam than elsewhere. Within the city, neonatal mortality was 63 and 44 per 1000 live births in the poorest 33% and richest 33%, respectively. The poorest had higher rates of stunting, more overcrowding, inadequate sanitation and lower coverage of institutional deliveries and C-section rate, compared to richest tertile. Children in Dar es Salaam do not have improved survival chances compared to rural children, despite better living conditions and higher coverage of essential health interventions. This urban penalty is higher among children of the poorest households which could only partly be explained by the available indicators of coverage of services and living conditions. Further research is urgently needed to understand the reasons for the urban penalty, including quality of care, health behaviours and environmental conditions.

Coverage, Trends, and Inequalities of Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Indicators among the Poor and Non-Poor in the Most Populous Cities from 38 Sub-Saharan African Countries.

Rapid urbanization is likely to be associated with suboptimal access to essential health services. This is especially true in cities from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where urbanization is outpacing improvements in infrastructure. We assessed the current situation in regard to several markers of maternal, newborn, and child health, including indicators of coverage of health interventions (demand for family planning satisfied with modern methods, at least four antenatal care visits (ANC4+), institutional birth, and three doses of DPT vaccine[diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus]) and health status (stunting in children under 5 years, neonatal and under-5 mortality rates) among the poor and non-poor in the most populous cities from 38 SSA countries. We analyzed 136 population-based surveys (year range 2000-2019), contrasting the poorest 40% of households (referred to as poor) with the richest 60% (non-poor). Coverage in the most recent survey was higher for the city non-poor compared to the poor for all interventions in virtually all cities, with the largest median gap observed for ANC4+ (13.5 percentage points higher for the non-poor). Stunting, neonatal, and under-5 mortality rates were higher among the poor (7.6 percentage points, 21.2 and 10.3 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively). The gaps in coverage between the two groups were reducing, except for ANC4, with similar median average annual rate of change in both groups. Similar rates of change were also observed for stunting and the mortality indicators. Continuation of these positive trends is needed to eliminate inequalities in essential health services and child survival in SSA cities.

Quality of reporting and trends of emergency obstetric and neonatal care indicators: an analysis from Tanzania district health information system data between 2016 and 2020.

BACKGROUND: Routine health facility data provides the opportunity to monitor progress in quality and uptake of health care continuously. Our study aimed to assess the reliability and usefulness of emergency obstetric care data including temporal and regional variations over the past five years in Tanzania Mainland. METHODS: Data were compiled from the routine monthly district reports compiled as part of the health management information systems for 2016-2020. Key indicators for maternal and neonatal care coverage, emergency obstetric and neonatal complications, and interventions indicators were computed. Assessment on reliability and consistency of reports was conducted and compared with annual rates and proportions over time, across the 26 regions in of Tanzania Mainland and by institutional delivery coverage. RESULTS: Facility reporting was near complete with 98% in 2018-2020. Estimated population coverage of institutional births increased by 10% points from 71.2% to 2016 to 81.7% in 2020 in Tanzania Mainland, driven by increased use of dispensaries and health centres compared to hospitals. This trend was more pronounced in regions with lower institutional birth rates. The Caesarean section rate remained stable at around 10% of institutional births. Trends in the occurrence of complications such as antepartum haemorrhage, premature rupture of membranes, pre-eclampsia, eclampsia or post-partum bleeding were consistent over time but at low levels (1% of institutional births). Prophylactic uterotonics were provided to nearly all births while curative uterotonics were reported to be used in less than 10% of post-partum bleeding and retained placenta cases. CONCLUSION: Our results show a mixed picture in terms of usefulness of the District Health Information System(DHIS2) data. Key indicators of institutional delivery and Caesarean section rates were plausible and provide useful information on regional disparities and trends. However, obstetric complications and several interventions were underreported thus diminishing the usefulness of these data for monitoring. Further research is needed on why complications and interventions to address them are not documented reliably.

Comparison of survival analysis approaches to modelling age at first sex among youth in Kisesa Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Many studies analyze sexual and reproductive event data using descriptive life tables. Survival analysis has better power to estimate factors associated with age at first sex (AFS), but proportional hazards models may not be right model to use. This study used accelerated failure time (AFT) models, restricted Mean Survival time model (RMST) models, with semi and non-parametric methods to assess age at first sex (AFS), factors associated with AFS, and verify underlying assumptions for each analysis. METHODS: Self-reported sexual debut data was used from respondents 15-24 years in eight cross-sectional surveys between 1994-2016, and from adolescents' survey in an observational community study (2019-2020) in northwest Tanzania. Median AFS was estimated in each survey using non-parametric and parametric models. Cox regression, AFT parametric models (exponential, gamma, generalized gamma, Gompertz, Weibull, log-normal and log-logistic), and RMST were used to estimate and identify factors associated with AFS. The models were compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC), where lower values represent a better model fit. RESULTS: The results showed that in every survey, the Cox regression model had higher AIC and BIC compared to the other models. Overall, AFT had the best fit in every survey round. The estimated median AFS using the parametric and non-parametric methods were close. In the adolescent survey, log-logistic AFT showed that females and those attending secondary and higher education level had a longer time to first sex (Time ratio (TR) = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06, TR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02-1.08, respectively) compared to males and those who reported not being in school. Cell phone ownership (TR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91-0.96), alcohol consumption (TR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84-0.93), and employed adolescents (TR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92-0.98) shortened time to first sex. CONCLUSION: The AFT model is better than Cox PH model in estimating AFS among the young population.

Going deeper with health equity measurement: how much more can surveys reveal about inequalities in health intervention coverage and mortality in Zambia?

BACKGROUND: Although Zambia has achieved notable improvements in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH), continued efforts to address gaps are essential to reach the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Research to better uncover who is being most left behind with poor health outcomes is crucial. This study aimed to understand how much more demographic health surveys can reveal about Zambia's progress in reducing inequalities in under-five mortality rates and RMNCH intervention coverage. METHODS: Using four nationally-representative Zambia Demographic Health Surveys (2001/2, 2007, 2013/14, 2018), we estimated under-five mortality rates (U5MR) and RMNCH composite coverage indices (CCI) comparing wealth quintiles, urban-rural residence and provinces. We further used multi-tier measures including wealth deciles and double disaggregation between wealth and region (urban residence, then provinces). These were summarised using slope indices of inequality, weighted mean differences from overall mean, Theil and concentration indices. RESULTS: Inequalities in RMNCH coverage and under-five mortality narrowed between wealth groups, residence and provinces over time, but in different ways. Comparing measures of inequalities over time, disaggregation with multiple socio-economic and geographic stratifiers was often valuable and provided additional insights compared to conventional measures. Wealth quintiles were sufficient in revealing mortality inequalities compared to deciles, but comparing CCI by deciles provided more nuance by showing that the poorest 10% were left behind by 2018. Examining wealth in only urban areas helped reveal closing gaps in under-five mortality and CCI between the poorest and richest quintiles. Though challenged by lower precision, wealth gaps appeared to close in every province for both mortality and CCI. Still, inequalities remained higher in provinces with worse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Multi-tier equity measures provided similarly plausible and precise estimates as conventional measures for most comparisons, except mortality among some wealth deciles, and wealth tertiles by province. This suggests that related research could readily use these multi-tier measures to gain deeper insights on inequality patterns for both health coverage and impact indicators, given sufficient samples. Future household survey analyses using fit-for-purpose equity measures are needed to uncover intersecting inequalities and target efforts towards effective coverage that will leave no woman or child behind in Zambia and beyond.

Maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality: a transition model based on analyses of 151 countries.

BACKGROUND: Maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal mortality account for almost 5 million deaths a year and are often analysed separately, despite having overlapping causes and interventions. We propose a comprehensive five-phase mortality transition model to improve analyses of progress and inform strategic planning. METHODS: In this empirical data-driven study to develop a model transition, we used UN estimates for 151 countries to assess changes in maternal mortality, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths. On the basis of ratios of maternal to stillbirth and neonatal mortality, we identified five phases of transition, in which phase 1 has the highest mortality and phase 5 has the lowest. We used global databases to examine phase-specific characteristics during 2000-20 for causes of death, fertility rates, abortion policies, health workforce and financing, and socioeconomic indicators. We analysed 326 national surveys to assess service coverage and inequalities by transition phase. FINDINGS: Among 116 countries in phases 1 to 4 in 2000, 73 (63%) progressed at least one phase by 2020, six advanced two phases, and three regressed. The ratio of stillbirth and neonatal deaths to maternal deaths increased from less than 10 in phase 1 to well over 50 in phase 4 and phase 5. Progression was associated with a declining proportion of deaths caused by infectious diseases and peripartum complications, declining total and adolescent fertility rates, changes in health-workforce densities and skills mix (ie, ratio of nurses or midwives to physicians) from phase 3 onwards, increasing per-capita health spending, and reducing shares of out-of-pocket health expenditures. From phase 1 to 5, the median coverage of first antenatal care visits increased from 66% to 98%, four or more antenatal care visits from 44% to 94%, institutional births from 36% to 99%, and caesarean section rates from 2% to 25%. The transition out of high-mortality phases involved a major increase in institutional births, primarily in lower-level health facilities, whereas subsequent progress was characterised by rapid increases in hospital births. Wealth-related inequalities reduced strongly for institutional birth coverage from phase 3 onwards. INTERPRETATION: The five-phase maternal mortality, stillbirth, and neonatal mortality transition model can be used to benchmark the current indicators in comparison to typical patterns in the transition at national or sub-national level, identify outliers to better assess drivers of progress, and inform strategic planning and investments towards Sustainable Development Goal targets. It can also facilitate programming for integrated strategies to end preventable maternal mortality and neonatal mortality and stillbirths. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring stillbirth and perinatal mortality rates through household surveys: a population-based analysis using an integrated approach to data quality assessment and adjustment with 157 surveys from 53 countries.

BACKGROUND: In most low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), national surveys are the main data source for stillbirths and perinatal mortality. Data quality issues such as under-reporting and misreporting have greatly limited the usefulness of such data. We aimed to enhance the use of mortality data in surveys by proposing data quality metrics and exploring adjustment procedures to obtain the best possible measure of perinatal mortality. METHODS: We performed a population-based analysis of data from 157 demographic and health surveys (DHSs) from 1990 to 2020, with reproductive calendar and birth history data from 53 LMICs. Pregnancies terminated before 7 months' gestation were excluded. We examined data quality and compared survey values with reference values obtained from a literature review to assess misreporting of the age at early neonatal death, omission and transference of stillbirths, and very early neonatal deaths. Real cohort life-table rates of stillbirth, early neonatal, and perinatal mortality per 1000 births were calculated. The underlying risks of stillbirth and daily deaths were modelled using modified Gompertz-Makeham models. FINDINGS: Data for 2 008 807 pregnancies of ≥7 months' gestational age were extracted from the reproductive calendar for the analysis period. Age heaping at day 7 occurred in most surveys. The median value for the heaping index of deaths at day 7 was 2·05 (IQR 1·36-2·87). The median ratio of stillbirths to deaths on days 0-1 was 1·15 (0·86-1·51). Of the 157 surveys, 23 (15%) were considered to have plausible ratios, 71 (45%) had probable ratios, and 63 (40%) had improbable ratios. The ratio of deaths on days 0-1 to deaths on days 2-6 varied considerably between surveys and 119 surveys (76%) had ratios of less than 2·4, indicative of under-reporting of very early neonatal deaths in most surveys. The fully adjusted model increased the median stillbirth rates from 12·2 (9·4-15·9) to 25·6 (18·0-33·4) per 1000 births, with a median relative increase of 95·0% (56·6-136·6). The median perinatal mortality rate also increased from 32·6 (23·6-38·3) to 44·8 (32·8-58·0) per 1000 births, with a median relative increase of 47·8% (6·9-61·0). INTERPRETATION: A simultaneous focus on stillbirths and early neonatal mortality facilitates a comprehensive assessment of inaccurate reporting in household surveys and allows for better use of surveys in planning and monitoring of efforts to reduce stillbirths and early neonatal mortality. FUNDING: None.

How Zambia reduced inequalities in under-five mortality rates over the last two decades: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Zambia experienced a major decline in under-five mortality rates (U5MR), with one of the fastest declines in socio-economic disparities in sub-Saharan Africa in the last two decades. We aimed to understand the extent to which, and how, Zambia has reduced socio-economic inequalities in U5MR since 2000. METHODS: Using nationally-representative data from Zambia Demographic Health Surveys (2001/2, 2007, 2013/14 and 2018), we examined trends and levels of inequalities in under-five mortality, intervention coverage, household water and sanitation, and fertility. This analysis was integrated with an in-depth review of key policy and program documents relevant to improving child survival in Zambia between 1990 and 2020. RESULTS: The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) declined from 168 to 64 deaths per 1000 live births between 2001/2 and 2018 ZDHS rounds, particularly in the post-neonatal period. There were major reductions in U5MR inequalities between wealth, education and urban-rural residence groups. Yet reduced gaps between wealth groups in estimated absolute income or education levels did not simultaneously occur. Inequalities reduced markedly for coverage of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH), malaria and human immunodeficiency virus interventions, but less so for water or sanitation and fertility levels. Several policy and health systems drivers were identified for reducing RMNCH inequalities: policy commitment to equity in RMNCH; financing with a focus on disadvantaged groups; multisectoral partnerships and horizontal programming; expansion of infrastructure and human resources for health; and involvement of community stakeholders and service providers. CONCLUSION: Zambia's major progress in reducing inequalities in child survival between the poorest and richest people appeared to be notably driven by government policies and programs that centrally valued equity, despite ongoing gaps in absolute income and education levels. Future work should focus on sustaining these gains, while targeting families that have been left behind to achieve the sustainable development goal targets.

Birth registration coverage according to the sex of the head of household: an analysis of national surveys from 93 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Within-country inequalities in birth registration coverage (BRC) have been documented according to wealth, place of residence and other household characteristics. We investigated whether sex of the head of household was associated with BRC. METHODS: Using data from nationally-representative surveys (Demographic and Health Survey or Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey) from 93 low and middle-income countries (LMICs) carried out in 2010 or later, we developed a typology including three main types of households: male-headed (MHH) and female-led with or without an adult male resident. Using Poisson regression, we compared BRC for children aged less than 12 months living the three types of households within each country, and then pooled results for all countries. Analyses were also adjusted for household wealth quintiles, maternal education and urban-rural residence. RESULTS: BRC ranged from 2.2% Ethiopia to 100% in Thailand (median 79%) while the proportion of MHH ranged from 52.1% in Ukraine to 98.3% in Afghanistan (median 72.9%). In most countries the proportion of poor families was highest in FHH (no male) and lowest in FHH (any male), with MHH occupying an intermediate position. Of the 93 countries, in the adjusted analyses, FHH (no male) had significantly higher BRC than MHH in 13 countries, while in eight countries the opposite trend was observed. The pooled analyses showed t BRC ratios of 1.01 (95% CI: 1.00; 1.01) for FHH (any male) relative to MHH, and also 1.01 (95% CI: 1.00; 1.01) for FHH (no male) relative to MHH. These analyses also showed a high degree of heterogeneity among countries. CONCLUSION: Sex of the head of household was not consistently associated with BRC in the pooled analyses but noteworthy differences in different directions were found in specific countries. Formal and informal benefits to FHH (no male), as well as women's ability to allocate household resources to their children in FHH, may explain why this vulnerable group has managed to offset a potential disadvantage to their children.

Paving the way to understanding female-headed households: Variation in household composition across 103 low- and middle-income countries.

Background: Female-headed households (FHHs) are regarded as disadvantaged. There are multiple social trajectories that can lead to women heading households. It is important to distinguish between these trajectories, as well as societal norms and contextual factors, to understand how and when are FHHs represented as a dimension of gender inequity. Our analysis defines and describes a typology of 16 FHH types (FHH16) based on demographic characteristics. Methods: This cross-sectional study used national Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) in 103 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to identify a typology of FHHs based on the family composition and additional household members. We performed descriptive analyses at the household level to generate median proportions of the FHH16 types and selected household characteristics. We conducted cluster analyses to explore FHH16 patterns across naturally grouped clusters of countries and described selected social and economic indicators at the ecological level. Results: The most common FHH16 types were those where the women household heads lived with children only, were alone, or lived with men, women, and children, but without a husband. In Africa and South Asia, the most common FHH was one where women heads resided with children only. In East Asia and the Pacific, the highest proportion of FHHs were those with men, women, and children. In MENA and Eastern Europe & Central Asia, households with women heads living alone were the most prevalent. Latin America had more FHHs with husbands, comparatively, and the most common FHHs were those with heads living alone or with children. Our exploratory cluster analysis generated five clusters with unique FHH16 patterns. The clusters had distinct geographic, contextual and economic characteristics. Conclusions: Our typology showed that FHHs are heterogeneous within and between countries. The ecological analysis emphasized further variation created by different societal and cultural factors. Research around their vulnerabilities and strengths needs to consider these factors and their influence on socioeconomic status and health-related outcomes within households headed by women.

The prevalence and incidence of HIV in the ART era (2006-2016) in North West Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan countries bear a disproportionate percentage of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths despite the efforts to strengthen HIV prevention and treatments services, including ART. It is important to demonstrate how these services have contributed to reducing the epidemic using available population data. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence and incidence rates from a cohort running over 23 years in Magu District, Mwanza Region-North West Tanzania. Adults 15 years and over who were residents of the Kisesa observational HIV cohort study between 2006 and 2016 were eligible for inclusion. Survival analysis was used to calculate person-time at risk, incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Cox regression models were used for the risk factor analyses disaggregated by sex and age group. RESULTS: The HIV prevalence in the sero-surveys decreased from 7.2% in 2006/07 to 6.6% in 2016, with a notable decrease of over 50% for both men and women aged 15-24 years. The incidence rate for HIV was estimated to be 5.5 (95% CI 4.6-6.6) per 1,000 person-years in women compared to 4.6 (95% CI 3.5-5.8) in men, with a decrease over time. Despite the availability of ART services, the uptake is still small. CONCLUSIONS: New infections are still occurring, with high HIV incidence in individuals aged below 45 years. With new guidelines and the 95-95-95 UNAIDS target, prevalence and incidence must be adequately assessed. In addition, there is a need for additional efforts to assess the impact of HIV/AIDS prevention programmes and intervention services, especially in these areas where resources are limited.

Zooming in and out: a holistic framework for research on maternal, late foetal and newborn survival and health.

Research is needed to understand why some countries succeed in greater improvements in maternal, late foetal and newborn health (MNH) and reducing mortality than others. Pathways towards these health outcomes operate at many levels, making it difficult to understand which factors contribute most to these health improvements. Conceptual frameworks provide a cognitive means of rendering order to these factors and how they interrelate to positively influence MNH. We developed a conceptual framework by integrating theories and frameworks from different disciplines to encapsulate the range of factors that explain reductions in maternal, late foetal and neonatal mortality and improvements in health. We developed our framework iteratively, combining our interdisciplinary research team's knowledge, experience and review of the literature. We present a framework that includes health policy and system levers (or intentional actions that policy-makers can implement) to improve MNH; service delivery and coverage of interventions across the continuum of care; and epidemiological and behavioural risk factors. The framework also considers the role of context in influencing for whom and where health and non-health efforts have the most impact, to recognize 'the causes of the causes' at play at the individual/household, community, national and transnational levels. Our framework holistically reflects the range of interrelated factors influencing improved MNH and survival. The framework lends itself to studying how different factors work together to influence these outcomes using an array of methods. Such research should inform future efforts to improve MNH and survival in different contexts. By re-orienting research in this way, we hope to equip policy-makers and practitioners alike with the insight necessary to make the world a safer and fairer place for mothers and their babies.