[Mathematic prognosis of cagocel effectiveness for prophylaxis and therapy of influenza].

The possibility of using a mathematic model of influenza epidemic in evaluation of effectiveness of an etiotropic preparation cagocel for prophylaxis and therapy of influenza as well as determination of possible damage from influenza epidemics and outbreaks in major cities of Russia is shown.

[A prognostic model of the effect of the antiviral drug Relenza on the epidemic of A(H1N1)/2009 influenza].

The paper gives the results of calculation-theoretical studies estimating the effect of the etiotropic agent Relenza (in preventing influenza in its susceptible patients an in treating patients ill with influenza) on the epidemic of pandemic A(H1N1)/2009 influenza in a large city of Russia. The values of its effect (the number of prevented cases of influenza and that of prevented deaths from its complications) have been calculated on a computer, by applying a modified PSEEI2RF influenza epidemic model (a Russian Baroyan-Rvachev model) with the A(H1N1)/2009 influenza pathogen that dominated in the 2009-2010 season in many countries of the world. Predictive estimates of the action of Relenza on the epidemic of A(H1N1)/2009 influenza have been obtained for 5 scenarios while implementing measures to treat patients with the illness and to prevent its susceptible patients in a large city with a population of one million. In conclusion, there are results of predicting the number of prevented A(H1N1)/2009 influenza cases and damage estimates for 6 cities of Russia due to the massive use of the antiviral drug Relenza.

[Banks of biological resources in the system of basic epidemiological and clinical studies].

Banks of biological resources appear to become the key centres of long-standing international scientific infrastructure necessary for efficacious use of achievements in public health. Approaches to building up the global system of monitoring socially significant and other dangerous infections based on the passported blood sera bank and computerized epidemiological database meeting the current WHO standards are discussed. An innovative project for the creation of the Electronic Atlas of Russia is considered that must provide an original information-analytical system for the study of the most widespread infectious diseases with the use of modern geoinformation technologies.

[Actual problems of creation of informational-analytical system for rapid control of epidemics of infectious diseases].

Structure and modules of computer informational-analytical system "Electronic atlas of Russia" is presented, the object of mapping in this system is epidemiology of socially significant infectious diseases. Systemic information on processes of emergence and spread of socially significant infectious diseases (anthroponoses, zoonoses and sapronoses) in the population of Russian Federation is presented in the atlas. Detailed electronic maps of country territory filled with prognosis-analytical information created by using technological achievements of mathematic and computer modeling of epidemics and outbreaks of viral and bacterial infections are of particular interest. Atlas allows to objectively evaluate the pattern of infection spread, prepare prognoses of epidemic and outbreak developments taking into account the implementation of control measures (vaccination, prophylaxis, diagnostics and therapy) and evaluate their economic effectiveness.

[Methods for diminishing mortality from infectious diseases].

The paper reports analysis of the "Russian Cross" demographic phenomenon characteristic of the present-day Russia, that is a marked excess of mortality over the birth rate leading to the reduction of the country's population at a rate of 750-800 thou people per year. The main causes and factors of excess mortality are considered with reference to deaths from infectious (viral and microbial) diseases. Experts of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences proposed the working concept of the research program "Avoidable population mortality from infectious diseases in 2010-2020". Its implementation envisages the use of up-to-date information and computer technologies including mathematical and computer simulation of morbidity and mortality processes in outbreaks and epidemics of infectious diseases. The use of computer-assisted technologies is illustrated by the example of smallpox epidemics. They permit to promptly analyse and prognosticate excess mortality from infectious diseases by applying new diagnostic tools and medicinal products. This approach is proposed for the evaluation of the effectiveness of different projects in the framework of the above program. Its realization requires the development of three special information (computer-aided) systems designated Projects, Infections, and Prognoses.

[Louse-borne typhus potential and new technologies in prediction of epidemic louse-borne typhus outburst].

Features of louse-borne typhus in Russia in the middle of 20th century are considered. Study of the infection source, blood serum in patient after epidemic louse-borne typhus (ELBT) and agent (louse) was performed on territory with high morbidity of pediculosis and ELBT in the years of 2nd world war. New materials of seroimmunological examinations are represented. Priority data of lice morphology based on morphometrical data of lice, collected in Russia and world collection in Berlin are shown. Methods of ELBT prediction are given, special attention is paid to development of mathematic prognostic models based on new technologies.

Prediction of outbreaks of post-traumatic stress disorder after large-scale terrorist acts.

An original computer technology--a mathematical model and computer programs running under Windows--for the operative assessment of outbreaks of post-traumatic stress disorders (PTSD) and prediction of their sequelae among victims of terrorist attacks is described. The structure of the mathematical model is described, along with the relationship between the mathematical model and the calculating algorithm for prediction of the development of outbreaks of PTSD. The computer program allowed predictions of the numbers of mental disorders with subsequent behavioral impairment, addictive disorders, personality changes, and signs of maladaptation in victims of terrorist acts. A model of an epidemic of mass panic in a population sensitive to negative information on the consequences of terrorist acts is described.

[The prediction of outbreaks of posttraumatic stress disorders after large-scale terrorism acts].

Presented is an original computed technology - a mathematic model and software for Windows for operative assessment of outbreaks of posttraumatic stress disorders (PTSD) and prediction of their consequences among victims of terrorism acts. The structure and correlations between the mathematic model and calculating algorithm for the prognosis of PTSD outbreaks are described. The computed program allows to predict a number of mental disorders with further behavior deviations, addictive disorders, personality changes, signs of maladaptation in victims of terrorism acts. Authors present a model of outbreak of mass panic among the population sensitive to the negative information of terrorism acts consequences.

[Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus inducing influenza pneumonia in humans].

The human disease caused by avian influenza virus in South Asia is a typical example of emerging infection resulting from transmission of a known causative agent to a new host. The first cases with a comparatively high level of lethality rates among patients were registered in 1997 and 1999. The situation is a special phenomenon in epidemiology which requires deep evolutionary and ecological analysis, as well as theoretical interpretation. With the example of avian influenza virus in Western Europe and South Asia in 2003-2004 the practical expediency of modern concepts "foci versus epidemics" and "eradication versus vaccination" is now evident.

[Problem of bioterrorism under modern conditions]. / Problema bioterrorizma v sovremennykh usloviiakh.

It is practically impossible to discuss the problem of bioterrorism (BT) and to develop effective programs of decreasing the losses and expenses suffered by the society from the BT acts without evaluation of the threat and prognosis of consequences based on research and empiric data. Stained international situation following the act of terrorism (attack on the USA) on September 11, 2001, makes the scenarios of the bacterial weapon use (the causative agents of plague, smallpox, anthrax, etc.) by international terrorists most probable. In this connection studies on the analysis and prognostication of the consequences of BT, including mathematical and computer modelling, are necessary. The authors present the results of initiative studies on the analysis and prognostication of the consequences of the hypothetical act of BT with the use of the smallpox causative agent in a city with the population of about 1,000,000 inhabitants. The analytical prognostic studies on the operative analysis and prognostication of the consequences of the BT act with the use of the smallpox causative agent has demonstrated that the mathematical (computer) model of the epidemic outbreak of smallpox is an effective instrument of calculation studies. Prognostic evaluations of the consequences of the act of BT under the conditions of different reaction of public health services (time of detection, interventions) have been obtained with the use of modelling. In addition, the computer model is necessary for training health specialists to react adequately to the acts of BT with the use of different kinds of bacteriological weapons.

[Prognostic model of drug abuse and HIV infection morbidity among youth]. / Prognosticheskaia model' rasprostraneniia narkomanii i VICh-infektsii sredi molodezhi.

The description of prognostication model the distribution process of a narcotism (the heroine) among youth of large city is given. The model is developed with the purpose of study of a consequence of a narcotism among the teenagers and youth, which use a intravenous drugs user and have high risk of infection by a HIV-infection. The results of settlement researches heroine epidemic process in large city with the population about 1 million on retrospective per 10 years are submitted. The forecast of number of drug users on prospect per 5 years is made. It allows to estimate long-term consequences of a narcotism, as "has sunk down" for powerful epidemic AIDS in city in nearest 10 years.

[The use of computer technologies in the operational analysis of outbreaks of hospital infections]. / Primenenie komp'iuternykh tekhnologii pri operativnom analize vspyshek vnutrigospital'nykh infektsii.

The description of the mathematical model for the study of outbreaks of hospital infections caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae in intensive care units and the example of its use are presented. Calculations in connection with the evaluation and prognostication of the number of sick and deceased children on account of Klebsiella hospital infection were carried out with the use of the proposed computer program. The importance creating an effective hospital information and analytical system, suitable for the treatment and analysis of data on the epidemiological monitoring of hospital infections, with the elements permitting the registration and prognostication of the cases of the appearance and development of hospital infections, the evaluation of the morbidity level, as well as the effectiveness of using different prophylactic measures.

[An evaluation of the spectrum of Plasmodium vivax subpopulations by the results of an experimental study of late relapses in Delhi]. / Otsenka spektra subpopuliatsii Plasmodium vivax po rezul'tatam éksperimental'nogo izucheniia otdalennykh retsidivov v Deli.

The spectrum of Plasmodium vivax subpopulations could be evaluated by analyzing the results of experimental studies of late relapses in P. vivax malaria in north-western Delhi. The spectra of the subpopulations causing late recurrences were different for malaria with short-and longterm incubations. The conclusions previously made by mathematical stimulation as to that malaria with longterm incubation is mainly transmitted at the beginning of the season have been confirmed. Based on the results of the frequency analysis, 6 P. vivax subpopulations with the values of their development duration of 15, 240, 300, 390, 720, and 1020 days, respectively, were identified for formalization of an epidemic process.

[A mathematical model of operative analysis and prognosis in outbreaks of hospital infections in newborn infants (exemplified by Klebsiella infection)]. / Matematicheskaia model' operativnogo analiza i prognoza vspyshek gospital'nykh infektsii sredi novorozhdennykh (na primere klebsielleznoi infektsii).

The results of investigations on the development of a mathematical model (computer program) for the study (imitation) of outbreaks of hospital infections among newborns, caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae. The mathematical model, when "saturated" with real data of the outbreak, opens wide possibilities for the operative analysis and prognosis of morbidity and mortality levels among newborns at the intensive therapy departments of maternity clinics and hospitals. The possibilities of the model (computer program) are illustrated by the prognostic calculations of 3 outbreaks (hypothetical) of hospital infections at the intensive therapy department of the university clinic of Universitario del Valle, Cali (Colombia), resulting from violations of sanitary regulations by medical staff members.

[The mathematical modelling of tropical malaria]. / Matematicheskoe modelirovanie tropicheskoi maliarii.

The new mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria has been created. One means the operational forecast of epidemic process when different control measures are realized. The original modelling methodology for epidemics is used. The proposed methodology is allowed to take into account the natural variety of model's parameters. The malaria model consists of the nonlinear integro-differential in partial derivatives combined equations including individual and population characteristics. The informatics technologies permits to see information about model and its grounds. The model's verification has been done on data of Garki-project.

[A dynamic model for analyzing and predicting the epidemic process in typhoid fever]. / Dinamicheskaia model' dlia analiza i prognozirovaniia épidemicheskogo protsessa briushnogo tifa.

The results of calculations and theoretical considerations on processes of the spread of typhoid fever, made with the use of a new mathematical model which is based on the model proposed by B. Cvjetanovic, further developed and improved. In this new model the latest phenomenology of the description of the processes of the spread of typhoid fever in the heterogeneous susceptible layer of the human population was used. A computer program for the new mathematical model of typhoid fever has been realized on a IBM PC/AT-386, which makes it possible to carry out prognostic analytical studies of the dynamics of the spread of typhoid fever at endemic territories. This program has been used for making calculations in connection with the analysis and prognostication of typhoid fever morbidity and mortality processes in St.-Petersburg.

[A prognostic model of hepatitis A morbidity]. / Prognosticheskaia model' zabolevaemosti gepatitom A.

The growing interest to the study of the processes of the spread of hepatitis A (HA) in big cities of our country has stimulated the development of a new prognostic model at the Gamaleia Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology. The model specifically takes into account a number of factors linked with the dynamics of the development of the disease in 6 stages and some regularities in the seasonal rises of HA morbidity. Quantitative relations in the mathematical model are determined by a system of nonlinear integral-differential equations with the first order partial derivatives and under the integral type boundary conditions, which increases the strictness of modeling of HA. The use of this new model has made it possible to carry out the prognostic-analytical study of HA morbidity among children in Perm and to evaluate a decrease in HA morbidity due to the hypothetical vaccination of children in spring months.

[A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic]. / Prognosticheskaia model' épidemii kholery.

A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.