ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Age is one of five prognostic parameters identified based on data of the trauma registry of the German Association for Trauma Surgery (DGU). We asked ourselves if the suggested prognostic model provides the same predictive power of data from an independent hospital. Furthermore, we investigated whether age itself or age-associated comorbidity causes an unfavorable prognostic effect. METHODS: The investigation was based on data of 103 multiply injured patients (67 male, 36 female, mean age 35,4+/-SD 19,0 years, ISS 36,8+/-10,9). Data were collected prospectively following the guidelines of the trauma registry of the German Association for Trauma Surgery. Based on documented comorbidities, a risk calculation was performed using the ASA classification. Correlation between age and ASA was analyzed using Spearman's method. The prognostic value of the original model in our patient pool with or without ASA classification, possible interactions, and the discriminatory power of the model were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Attributable mortality was 31,7% (95% CI 22,7-41,7%). Age, ISS, GCS and ASA were included into the final logistic model. Odds ratios of the origin model were reproducible nearly identical in our patinet pool (OR: age 1,048; ISS 1,066; GCS 0,822). In spite of the fact that we have found a strong correlation between age and ASA-Classification (rho=0,60, p<0,0001) there was no prognostic value of comorbidity. CONCLUSION: The suggested prognostic model based on multicenter data evaluation can be applied to a single center with only minimal loss of discriminatory power. In this context, age seems to have a prognostic value independent of comorbidity.
Subject(s)
Age Distribution , Multiple Trauma/diagnosis , Multiple Trauma/mortality , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Assessment/methods , Survival Analysis , Trauma Severity Indices , Adult , Age Factors , Female , Germany/epidemiology , Humans , Male , Prognosis , Registries , Reproducibility of Results , Risk Factors , Sensitivity and Specificity , Survival RateABSTRACT
Hypotension caused by hypovolemic, hemorrhagic shock induces disturbances in the immune system that may contribute to an increased susceptibility to sepsis. The effect of chemically induced hypotension on circulating cytokines and adhesion molecules has not been investigated yet. In 21 patients scheduled for resection of malignant choroidal melanoma of the eye the perioperative serum levels of the cytokines IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-alpha, and the adhesion molecules sE-Selectin and sICAM-1 were investigated. Moderate hypothermia of 32 degrees C was induced in all patients. In 14 patients profound hypotension (mean arterial blood pressure 35-40 mmHg, hypotension group) was induced by enalapril and nitroglycerin for a mean duration of 71 min. In 7 patients the tumor was not resectable, and hypotension was not induced (controls). We did not detect significant differences in serum levels of cytokines or sE-Selectin perioperatively in patients with profound hypotension compared with controls. In both groups IL-6 serum levels increased significantly and reached a maximum after rewarming (17 +/- 6 and 16 +/- 5 pg/dL, respectively, P < 0.001). IL-1beta, IL-10, and TNF-alpha did not change perioperatively in both groups. On the first postoperative day sICAM-1 serum levels were significantly increased in both groups (mean increase of 96 and 54 ng/mL, respectively, P < 0.01 and P < 0.05). We conclude from this study that profound normovolemic arterial hypotension does not seem to have effects on serum levels of circulating IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-alpha, and sE-Selectin. Perioperative moderate hypothermia may be the reason for the postoperative increase in sICAM-1 levels independent of the blood pressure.
