The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes.

PREMISE: Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes. METHODS: We examined how genotypes vary in maximum cold tolerance from 9 years of cold hardiness data across 18 genotypes from 13 sites, using winegrapes (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera) as a case study. Combining a Bayesian hierarchical dose-response model with gridded climate data, we then project changes in climatic suitability near winegrapes' current cold range-edge between 1949 and 2016. RESULTS: Plants increased maximum cold hardiness non-linearly with decreasing air temperature (maximum cold hardiness: -23.6°C), but with substantial (by 2°C) variation across genotypes. Our results suggest, since the 1980s, decreasing freeze injury risk has made conditions more favorable for all genotypes at the cold range-edge, but conditions remained more favorable for more cold hardy genotypes and in warmer areas. There was substantial spatial variation in habitat suitability, with the majority of suitably warm habitat located in a narrow north-south oriented strip. CONCLUSIONS: We highlight the importance of genotypic differences in physiological tolerances when assessing range shift potential with climate change. Habitat improvements were unevenly distributed over the spatially complex landscape, though, emphasizing the importance of dispersal in range expansion.

A study on the interplay between energy and matter transformation: the effect of elevated temperatures on the leaf morphology of Vitis vinifera var. Merlot.

This investigation explores the relationship between increased energy levels and leaf morphology. It tests the idea that the causal agent of development is the dissipation of energy into transformed matter. The energy under which leaves developed was modified by increasing temperatures in grape cordons through wrapping them in clear plastic sleeves in the early spring. At the higher temperatures, and energy levels, there was a small but statistically significant decrease in leaf size and a change in organization the leaves. The decrease in leaf size may be due to a reallocation of resources, either to greater shoot growth as a previous study demonstrated or to the appearance of more vectors of development in the leaves, i.e. the appearance of more developmental subsystems. The leaves that grew under the higher temperature regime were more complex, perhaps indicating that the grapes on those same vines may produce more complex juice, another expression of more developmental subsystems. The change in organization in these leaves that developed at higher temperature argues that the causal agent in plant development is energy dissipation and the concomitant transformation of matter, the latter expressed in the appearance of more growth vectors.