Climate variability and migration in the Philippines.

This study investigates the effects of climatic variations and extremes captured by variability in temperature, precipitation, and incidents of typhoons on aggregate inter-provincial migration within the Philippines using panel data. Our results indicate that a rise in temperature and to some extent increased typhoon activity increase outmigration, while precipitation does not have a consistent, significant effect. We also find that temperature and typhoons have significant negative effects on rice yields, a proxy for agricultural productivity, and generate more outmigration from provinces that are more agriculturally dependent and have a larger share of rural population. Finally, migration decisions of males, younger individuals, and those with higher levels of education are more sensitive to rising temperature and typhoons. We conclude that temperature increase and to some extent typhoon activities promote migration, potentially through their negative effect on crop yields. The migration responses of males, more educated, and younger individuals are more sensitive to these climatic impacts.

Intermarriage among New Immigrants in the USA.

The study uses the New Immigrant Survey data collected in 2003 to fill a void in the existing literature on the regional variations in exogamy among the new first generation immigrants in the United States. It further improves on some methodological issues in existing studies. Our empirical results show that immigrants from different regions of origin indeed vary significantly in their choice of spouse, even after controlling for other important predictors of exogamy. Latino females are the most exogamous of all groups while Latino males as well are more exogamous than their Asian male counterparts and do not differ much from male immigrants from Europe, Central Asia and the residual "other" category. The results are somewhat counterintuitive given the history of European immigration to the US, and the higher level of structural assimilation attained by Asians in the US compared to Latinos. The contradictory results therefore, point towards a rapid assimilation of Latin Americans into the US society. On the other hand, first generation Asians demonstrated the lowest level of all types of exogamy in general, except Asian women were not the most endogamous compared to Europeans, Central Asians and "other" residual category. The finding, once again is inconsistent with the history of European immigration. Finally, although Latinos are more exogamous, they preferred a Hispanic spouse than a non-Hispanic, which could be attributed to the common Spanish language shared by them. In contrast, lack of a common language among Asians might be contributing to their lowest intermarriage rate with other Asians, irrespective of gender.

Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters.

We present a microlevel study to simultaneously investigate the effects of variations in temperature and precipitation along with sudden natural disasters to infer their relative influence on migration that is likely permanent. The study is made possible by the availability of household panel data from Indonesia with an exceptional tracking rate combined with frequent occurrence of natural disasters and significant climatic variations, thus providing a quasi-experiment to examine the influence of environment on migration. Using data on 7,185 households followed over 15 y, we analyze whole-household, province-to-province migration, which allows us to understand the effects of environmental factors on permanent moves that may differ from temporary migration. The results suggest that permanent migration is influenced by climatic variations, whereas episodic disasters tend to have much smaller or no impact on such migration. In particular, temperature has a nonlinear effect on migration such that above 25 °C, a rise in temperature is related to an increase in outmigration, potentially through its impact on economic conditions. We use these results to estimate the impact of projected temperature increases on future permanent migration. Though precipitation also has a similar nonlinear effect on migration, the effect is smaller than that of temperature, underscoring the importance of using an expanded set of climatic factors as predictors of migration. These findings on the minimal influence of natural disasters and precipitation on permanent moves supplement previous findings on the significant role of these variables in promoting temporary migration.

Individual decisions to migrate during civil conflict.

The existing literature on forced migration limits our understanding of how violence affects migration to competing destinations. This article adds to the literature on forced migration by studying how armed violence during a period of civil conflict in south-central Nepal influenced the likelihood of local, internal, and international migration. We find that violence has a nonlinear effect on migration, such that low to moderate levels of violence reduce the odds of movement, but when violence reaches high levels, the odds of movement increase. We also find that the effect of violence on mobility increases as the distance of the move increases. When we consider the influence of violence on microlevel decision-making, we find that the effects of individual and household-level determinants were mostly consistent with hypotheses derived from contemporary theories of voluntary migration and that no predictor of migration influenced the decision to migrate differently in the presence of violence.