Understanding the Elevated Lethality of COVID-19 in Liver Transplant Recipients: Does Immunosuppression Management Matter? Results from a Brazilian Multicentric Historical Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Infections by SARS-CoV-2 in liver transplant recipients (LT) patients are of particular concern, notably due to perceived added risks related to immunosuppression and comorbidity burden. Current literature on this topic often relies on small, non-standardized, and geographically limited studies. This manuscript describes COVID-19 presentations and causes for elevated mortality in a large cohort of LT recipients. METHODS: This study was designed as a multicentric historical cohort, including LT recipient patients with COVID-19 in 25 study centers, with the primary endpoint being COVID-related death. We also collected demographic, clinical, and laboratory data regarding presentation and disease progression. RESULTS: Two hundred and thirty-four cases were included. The study population was predominantly male and White and had a median age of 60 years. The median time from transplantation was 2.6 years (IQR 1-6). Most patients had at least one comorbidity (189, 80.8%). Patient age (P = .04), dyspnea (P < .001), intensive care unit admission (P < .001), and mechanical ventilation (P < .001) were associated with increased mortality. Modifications of immunosuppressive therapy (P < .001), specifically the suspension of tacrolimus, maintained significance in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Attention to risk factors and the individualization of patient care, especially regarding immunosuppression management, is crucial for delivering more precise interventions to these individuals.

AFP score and metroticket 2.0 perform similarly and could be used in a "within-ALL" clinical decision tool.

Background & Aims: Two recently developed composite models, the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) score and Metroticket 2.0, could be used to select patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are candidates for liver transplantation (LT). The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performance of both models and to evaluate the net risk reclassification of post-LT recurrence between them using each model's original thresholds. Methods: This multicenter cohort study included 2,444 adult patients who underwent LT for HCC in 47 centers from Europe and Latin America. A competing risk regression analysis estimating sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% CIs for recurrence was used (Fine and Gray method). Harrell's adapted c-statistics were estimated. The net reclassification index for recurrence was compared based on each model's original thresholds. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.8 years, there were 310 recurrences and 496 competing events (20.3%). Both models predicted recurrence, HCC survival and survival better than Milan criteria (p <0.0001). At last tumor reassessment before LT, c-statistics did not significantly differ between the two composite models, either as original or threshold versions, for recurrence (0.72 vs. 0.68; p = 0.06), HCC survival, and overall survival after LT. We observed predictive gaps and overlaps between the model's thresholds, and no significant gain on reclassification. Patients meeting both models ("within-ALL") at last tumor reassessment presented the lowest 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence (7.7%; 95% CI 5.1-11.5) and higher 5-year post-LT survival (70.0%; 95% CI 64.9-74.6). Conclusions: In this multicenter cohort, Metroticket 2.0 and the AFP score demonstrated a similar ability to predict HCC recurrence post-LT. The combination of these composite models might be a promising clinical approach. Impact and implications: Composite models were recently proposed for the selection of liver transplant (LT) candidates among individuals with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We found that both the AFP score and Metroticket 2.0 predicted post-LT HCC recurrence and survival better than Milan criteria; the Metroticket 2.0 did not result in better reclassification for transplant selection compared to the AFP score, with predictive gaps and overlaps between the two models; patients who met low-risk thresholds for both models had the lowest 5-year recurrence rate. We propose prospectively testing the combination of both models, to further optimize the LT selection process for candidates with HCC.